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Thai first quarter household debt at 80% of GDP, highest in four years

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Thai first quarter household debt at 80% of GDP, highest in four years

 

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FILE PHOTO: A view of Bangkok city amid the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Bangkok, Thailand, June 21, 2020. Picture taken June 21, 2020. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's household debt level to gross domestic product (GDP) rose slightly to 80.1% in the first quarter, the highest level in four years, central bank data showed, with the trend set to continue as the coronavirus outbreak squeezes the economy.

 

Southeast Asia's second's largest economy could shrink a record 8.1% this year, the central bank predicts.

 

As of March, household debt stood at 13.479 trillion baht ($431.47 billion), little changed from the 13.483 trillion baht at the end of last year, equal to 79.9% of GDP.

 

The debt to GDP ratio may jump to 88-90% at the end of this year, which would be the highest in the 18 years that the central bank has compiled records on household debt, according to Kasikornbank's research centre.

 

A sharp economic contraction and banks' debt relief measures, including lower loan repayments and debt moratoria, are likely to keep household debt levels high, it said.

 

Soft loans offered to households hit by the outbreak are also likely to push up debt levels, which are already among Asia's highest.

 

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring; Editing by Martin Petty)

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-07-08
 
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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, webfact said:

 and banks' debt relief measures,

Hand .? but then you wouldn't expect anything else off Bankers .. 

Edited by Justgrazing
Sp
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Posted (edited)

Of course it increased, GDP fell!

 

If the level of GDP reduces, which it will, probably by around 10%, and if no new household debt is issued, the ratio of debt to GDP will increase.......duh!

Edited by Trillian
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This will become the new normal in many places around the world. The longer the lockdowns the deeper the debt.

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FWIW I expect commercial loans to increase but that's not household debt, I think household debt will remain flat or may even decline because banks are not going to make unsecured low asset value loans to consumers. But of course you have to measure the debt properly to see that and measuring it against a sinking GDP certainly is not the way!

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No big story here (yet!), the amount in real terms remained about the same.

 

However, this is for the first quarter. We have to remember that January to March were relatively normal months (compared to April to June) as C19 was just gathering pace. The second quarter figures will be horrible. As will third quarter.

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I’ll wager 12% down by year end.  Any takers?

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Wow !

If Q1 debt to GDP ratio was 80.1%, then what is it likely to be in Q2

That is when the Covid outbreak really started to impact Thailand

Any advance on 90%

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Thailand's household debt, the highest level in four years! I wonder why, it would not have

anything to do with the Militaries kicking out the democratically elected Civilian Government, would it?

or it's just a coincidence!

 

"A bottle of wine contains more philosophy than all the books in the world"  Louis Pasteur 

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Posted (edited)

I wonder if that includes the 1.1 Trillion Baht that teachers owe their fund.

regards worgeordie

Edited by worgeordie
correction

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