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Price index for property drops in second quarter

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Price index for property drops in second quarter

By THE NATION

 

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Vichai Viratkapan

 

The price index for both housing estates and condominiums in this year’s second quarter has risen against the same period last year, but has dropped from the first quarter of this year.

 

 

The Real Estate Information Centre (REIC) has said that the highest discount rate for condominiums in late second quarter was 36 per cent, while that of townhouses and single houses was 32 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.

 

Vichai Viratkapan, REIC’s acting director, said the discounted rates had been brought about by the Covid-19 crisis, which adversely affected the sale of properties.

 

Due to the crisis, property companies have been trying to boost the sale of their unsold stocks, which has given rise to a price war that is expected to continue for a long time, he said.

 

In the second quarter of this year, the price index of new housing estates in Bangkok and adjacent provinces was 128.3 points, marking a rise of 1.9 per cent from the same period last year.

 

However, this price index had fallen by 0.1 per cent from the first quarter – the first drop since 2012, Vichai added. This price index includes those of single houses and townhouses. The price index of single houses was 126.6 points, rising by 2.3 per cent from the second quarter of last year, while the price index of townhouses has risen by 1.5 per cent to 130.2 points.

Moreover, the price index for new condominiums in Bangkok and nearby areas was 153.2 points, rising by 1.8 per cent year on year, but dropping by 0.1 per cent from this year’s first quarter.

 

Most condominiums that have had the highest drop are those located along the Green Line in Samut Prakan province.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30391083

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-07-11
 

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6 hours ago, rooster59 said:

The price index for both housing estates and condominiums in this year’s second quarter has risen against the same period last year, but has dropped from the first quarter of this year

Based on my purely empirical look at the advertisements for property rentals, condo sales, and home sales I find it difficult to believe that prices are up from 1 year ago.  Common sense tells you without foreigners that condo sales are going to be crushed.  With home sales, without foreigners married to Thai's here to purchase again no demand and lots of supply. 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Brickbat said:

Most Thais believe the Asking price is the actual price. And loosing face syndrome, they’ll hang on , to loosing prices. 

Next year I'm sure a lot of Thais will be forced to sell their properties. Thais are into heavy debts and at some point due to a crushed economy from covid, many of the highly indebted Thai people will be forced to sell land and houses. I'm sure many rich Thais are already preparing to buy up these properties cheaply (especially land). 

Edited by wolf81
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32 minutes ago, wolf81 said:

Next year I'm sure a lot of Thais will be forced to sell their properties. Thais are into heavy debts and at some point due to a crushed economy from covid, many of the highly indebted Thai people will be forced to sell land and houses. I'm sure many rich Thais are already preparing to buy up these properties cheaply (especially land). 

Debt is the time bomb but it’s a damn slow fuse

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32 minutes ago, wolf81 said:

Thais are into heavy debts and at some point due to a crushed economy from covid, many of the highly indebted Thai people will be forced to sell land and houses.

Record household debt, actually.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30378868

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I am watching and trying to learn as much as I can about Thai real estate trends. I'm of the opinion the real economic impact of all this COVID BS won't rear its ugly head for another few months yet, and that when this happens, the RE market won't be spared. I only hope we have enough saved to be legitimate players in the better markets. I do wonder however, just how far behind the curve I am with understanding how big a part saving face will play in buying distressed properties in the future. 

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10 minutes ago, PiMi said:

I am watching and trying to learn as much as I can about Thai real estate trends. I'm of the opinion the real economic impact of all this COVID BS won't rear its ugly head for another few months yet, and that when this happens, the RE market won't be spared. I only hope we have enough saved to be legitimate players in the better markets. I do wonder however, just how far behind the curve I am with understanding how big a part saving face will play in buying distressed properties in the future. 

there is no coloration between western real estate markets and Thai real estate. 

 

 

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“Prices” may very well be “up” from last year, but that is because the condos that are selling are much nicer than those sold last year.

 

Thinking that Thai’s might be forced to sell because of their debt loads is a tricky game to play, being that they can only lower their price to a point that is above their mortgage.  With mortgages offered at amounts up to 110% LTV,  The Thai owners may just end up losing their home to the bank vs. selling them at fire sale prices.  As a foreigner, you won’t be getting a fire sale price from the bank as 1.  You don’t have the connections and 2.  Banks won’t/cannot sell for less than the outstanding balance and if/when they do, I would be willing to bet that they will be bulk sales much like Blackrock buying up hundreds of thousands of homes in a swoop during the US housing bubble pop.

 

The 30-50% off deals offered by developers isn’t always the bargain that it appears to be.  50% off a ฿12m 35sqm Thonglor condo isn’t really a great deal in my mind.  Also, the heavily discounted units won’t be the prime units in the building.  They will most likely be low floor/no view units.

 

As a foreigner, the deals will be had buying from other foreigners who have decided to sell up and leave Thailand or from those who are selling their “contract” on buildings that are currently close to completion and are willing to recoup a percentage of their deposit rather than walk away from it all when the time to transfer/close comes.

 

When buying, always consider the price/rent ratio and for the rent, I would use the pre-Covid rent rates vs the Covid discount rates as I don’t believe that the Covid discounts will last forever.

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On 7/11/2020 at 7:38 PM, Leaver said:

Record household debt, actually.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30378868

 

On 7/11/2020 at 7:41 PM, AlfHuy said:

that's from 2019;

 

For sure, the debt is now much higher.

 

Yeap...it much higher now...right around 80%.

https://www.thailand-business-news.com/banking/79635-thai-household-debt-could-rise-beyond-80-pct-of-gdp.html

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