Nearly one-third of tourism-related businesses 'may shut down permanently'

[NoshowJones]

1 hour ago, VBF said:

Thanks but a little unsure what you're staying here...or you might be making 2 separate points?

 

If you mean the Thais are only allowing Thai companies to provide the cover, then we're in agreement and it ain't gonna fly!

 

If, on the other hand, you're saying that there are no western companies offering the requisite cover, then not so. 

There are many UK companies now including Covid cover - see my topic:

 

I can understand the confusion, unless things have changed, there are no western ins cos offering coronavirus ins on their own, although it is covered on some health ins, and it has to cover up to 100.000 Bt or something like that.

[nong38]

Does that include the TAT and the Government?

[VBF]

6 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

I can understand the confusion, unless things have changed, there are no western ins cos offering coronavirus ins on their own, although it is covered on some health ins, and it has to cover up to 100.000 Bt or something like that.

It's 100,000USD - the policy I've mentioned in my thread does...as does my existing policy which has just paid out over £2000 for my return to UK in March.

Things are changing so fast as people and organisations catch up, that confusion is inevitable.

[poskat]

looks like a lot of cute tour guides will be soon doing the nana shuffle

 

better paydays for them too

[Trillian]

1 hour ago, hobz said:

This proves that the powers that be in Thailand wants a strong baht. 

 

Here's my reasoning: 

 

Before corona the government said that the reason they can't just print money to devalue the baht is because the U.S. would label them a currency manipulator. But with Covid-19 and one third of tourism going under etc, they have the perfect excuse to go on a massive money printing scheme that would 1. bail out everyone. 2. Devalue the way too strong baht (and thus encourage future tourism). 

 

why would they not do this unless they secretly want a strong baht? 

What am I missing? 

 

A central bank cannot just pick a number and devalue its currency at will, things don't work that way. The strength of a currency is determined by a series of factors include Foreign Currency Reserve levels, government debt levels and current account status, amongst other things.  If a central bank were to adjust the level of the Baht/Dollar exchange rate one morning and weaken it by say four Baht, lots of people would immediately send over USD and exchange it for Baht at the new attractive rate and by lunch time the Baht would have strengthened back to its previous exchange rate and BOT would have lost a bundle. And as you say, making that sort of adjustment, even if it were to work (which it wouldn't) would mean Thailand is indeed a currency manipulator.

 

In order to weaken the currency, other measures have to be taken which allows the value of the Baht to weaken more naturally on a lasting basis and printing money is not part of that picture either. The term "printing money: doesn't mean printing bank notes, it refers instead to the Central Bank extending credit to commercial bank balance sheets so that they can lend more.  But why would they do that, there is no need, commercial and retail bank balance sheets are in fine shape!

 

Finally the question of whether BOT secretly wants a strong Baht, personally I believe they and everyone in finance does because it's beneficial to many aspects of the economy - imports remain cheaper, fuel, oil and transportation costs remain cheaper as do energy costs. The flip side is exports remain expensive which in a downturn is not a good thing, but exporters have lived with 30 baht per Dollar before so there's nothing new there.

 

[hobz]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

But why would they do that, there is no need,

Because they claim that they want a weaker baht. 

And the tourist sector needs a bailout. Aren't those good enough reasons?

Like how the US "printed" tons of money and lent it to businesses to protect jobs recently? 

Edited July 13, 2020 by hobz

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, hobz said:

Because they claim that they want a weaker baht. 

And the tourist sector needs a bailout. Aren't those good enough reasons?

Like how the US "printed" tons of money and lent it to businesses to protect jobs recently? 

So how do they make it weaker?

 

Forget printing money, that's a red herring in this discussion.

[GAZZPA]

19 hours ago, Jonathan Swift said:

white people pathetically whining about "racism" as if they have a clue what real racism is. Move to an American city for a year, live amongst non white people, observe, see real and in your face "ugly and racist",  see if you can learn something about it. You may not be so quick to throw  that word around in Asian countries. Now, pause to run to your dictionary and learn something. A policy may be "discriminatory" but it is not necessarily racist as a result. Discrimination in various forms may or may not be the RESULT of racism. Does the policy single out specific race, or just non Thais? THAT is not racist, it is nationalist and protectionist. Its purpose and roots are in economic interests of a relatively poor country when dealing with outsiders of better financial means, it is not rooted in hate. It is rooted in the mostly true idea that foreigners can afford to spend more because they are generally much better off financially. It is discriminatory and detrimental to tourism but hardly true evil, as racism is. Meanwhile your own attitude is inappropriately malicious toward your own imaginary bad guys. Discontinuing double pricing is a good idea, but wishing that businesses shut down when they like everyone else are just trying to make a living shows a total ignorance of the culture and of the delicate balancing act of the economy. It shows no respect or compassion to good people that would lose their jobs should that happen. Those businesses are following the lead of the government. You sound like a racist yourself. I hope you don't actually live here. If you do, please leave. I love it here, and the so called  "double pricing" such that it exists has virtually no tangible affect on me, my life, and my happiness here. And I am in a very low income bracket by western standards, $1600 a month US. 

So you think Ezzra is white? Also why is it you think white people cannot be offended by racism? take a leaf out of your own book and do some research on the history of global slavery and racism. all racism and discrimination is wrong, white people, black people, Asian people all have the right to protest against it.. 

 

i think i understand where you are coming from but your views are twisted.

[ChakaKhan]

22 hours ago, Antonymous said:

Don't be mean.

 

You should see his sister.

 

Is she single? Can maybe do a wedding online so I can gain entry back into LOS???

[hobz]

15 hours ago, Trillian said:

So how do they make it weaker?

 

Forget printing money, that's a red herring in this discussion.

Inflating money supply doesn't make a currency weaker? Even better reason to print money and bail everyone out.

 

When I say print money and bail everyone out I mean the central bank will add huge amounts of credit to banks and the banks will be forced to lend this money to any business or person that needs a bailout. The loans will be "forgivable" , meaning they won't have to be paid back. 

This is called inflation (inflating the money supply) and would weaken the THB purchasing power and exchange rate.

 

It's what the US is doing.. the reason the dollar is not collapsing as a result is that it's the world's reserve currency. If Thailand did the same they THB would weaken. Ofcourse depends on the amounts inflated I assume. And other factors as well as you pointed out. Is that correct or too simplified the way I see it?

Edited July 14, 2020 by hobz

[Trillian]

11 minutes ago, hobz said:

Inflating money supply doesn't make a currency weaker? Even better reason to print money and bail everyone out.

 

When I say print money and bail everyone out I mean the central bank will add huge amounts of credit to banks and the banks will be forced to lend this money to any business or person that needs a bailout. The loans will be "forgivable" , meaning they won't have to be paid back. 

This is called inflation (inflating the money supply) and would weaken the THB purchasing power and exchange rate.

 

It's what the US is doing.. the reason the dollar is not collapsing as a result is that it's the world's reserve currency. If Thailand did the same they THB would weaken. Ofcourse depends on the amounts inflated I assume. And other factors as well as you pointed out. Is that correct or too simplified the way I see it?

You can't apply the US model of USD to Thailand and the Baht, the two are totally different economies and currencies. USD is a reserve currency, the Baht is a minor boutique currency that is restricted, not fully convertible and cannot be freely exported, the US economy is worth USD 21 trillion vs Thailand at USD 530 bill. 

 

Increasing the money supply in Thailand via bank lending does what exactly to a restricted currency that cannot  be exported, even if it's effectively a cash giveaway? It would increase BOT debt because they would be the ones who have to shoulder the cost of the giveaway but it wouldn't increase government debt. 

 

Thailand has increased the money supply, it has doubled in the past the years yet it continues to suffer from ultra low inflation, a major reason being the current account has always shown a surplus which has fuelled the rise in foreign currency reserves:

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/current-account

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/money-supply-m1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[hobz]

31 minutes ago, Trillian said:

You can't apply the US model of USD to Thailand and the Baht, the two are totally different economies and currencies. USD is a reserve currency, the Baht is a minor boutique currency that is restricted, not fully convertible and cannot be freely exported, the US economy is worth USD 21 trillion vs Thailand at USD 530 bill. 

 

Increasing the money supply in Thailand via bank lending does what exactly to a restricted currency that cannot  be exported, even if it's effectively a cash giveaway? It would increase BOT debt because they would be the ones who have to shoulder the cost of the giveaway but it wouldn't increase government debt. 

 

Thailand has increased the money supply, it has doubled in the past the years yet it continues to suffer from ultra low inflation, a major reason being the current account has always shown a surplus which has fuelled the rise in foreign currency reserves:

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/current-account

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/money-supply-m1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for your reply. The key to what you're saying is that because there is export limits on THB, the Thai central bank could inflate the THB infinitely without the THB being devalued?

So if Zimbabwe just had export restrictions they could keep printing Zimbabwe dollars without crashing the currency? 

[hobz]

35 minutes ago, Trillian said:

You can't apply the US model of USD to Thailand and the Baht, the two are totally different economies and currencies. USD is a reserve currency, the Baht is a minor boutique currency that is restricted, not fully convertible and cannot be freely exported, the US economy is worth USD 21 trillion vs Thailand at USD 530 bill. 

 

Increasing the money supply in Thailand via bank lending does what exactly to a restricted currency that cannot  be exported, even if it's effectively a cash giveaway? It would increase BOT debt because they would be the ones who have to shoulder the cost of the giveaway but it wouldn't increase government debt. 

 

Thailand has increased the money supply, it has doubled in the past the years yet it continues to suffer from ultra low inflation, a major reason being the current account has always shown a surplus which has fuelled the rise in foreign currency reserves:

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/current-account

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/money-supply-m1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why doesn't Thailand simply print 1000000000000 trillion THB and buy all the world's gold reserves and usd reserves. What's the downside since the THB cannot be devalued by printing it?

[4reaL]

On 7/11/2020 at 10:04 PM, Fex Bluse said:

The Thais are in big trouble. They have been nasty to Westerners in favor of getting their Chinese cousins in to replace us. Now China's economy is going to be destroyed for decades as every country decouples with them. In 5 years, there won't be many Chinese who can afford to travel. 

 

Amen

 

You know little about manufacturing and the worlds supply chain.

[Trillian]

3 hours ago, hobz said:

Thanks for your reply. The key to what you're saying is that because there is export limits on THB, the Thai central bank could inflate the THB infinitely without the THB being devalued?

So if Zimbabwe just had export restrictions they could keep printing Zimbabwe dollars without crashing the currency? 

Not quite! Of course QE can help devalue a currency but Thailand has no appetite to take on debt or the inflation that would follow, if they get the scale of it wrong - the government had to be coerced by the IMF to operate a larger budget deficit for goodness sake because they are so risk averse.

 

BOT has no remit to initiate QE and successive governments have shied away from issuing debt which is why their borrowings are so low at 42% of GDP (53% post bail out). And unless productivity gains can be released in the Thai economy, QE would only lead to higher inflation, Thailand has had great difficulty increasing productivity which is why the whole money printing concept is a non-starter. 

 

When I refer to the Baht not being fully convertible I do so in the context of making it weaker. One way the country could weaken the Baht is to make it fully convertible but even today the country is reluctant to do that for fear that speculators will take a position against it, another throwback to the '97 crash.

 

Almost 96% of government debt is in THB, only 4% is in foreign currency loans. If Thailand were to borrow in USD this would mean selling THB for USD which would result in a weakening of the currency and this is exactly what is intended with the high speed rail link contract with China which is to be paid in USD. Thailand is in the process of fixing a forward rate on that loan at a time when the Baht is strong and USD is weak, that is sensible borrowing which may help weaken THB and be the precursor to further loans along the same lines.

 

 

[starfish]

On 7/12/2020 at 11:29 AM, BritManToo said:

I don't believe in COVID as a serious world health problem (0.5M dead out of 8B = trivial).

All the countries being shut was for an entirely different reason.

I don't know what that reason was, but it's probably still there.

 

Now if COVID had killed 1B ................

 

Black Death killed 50% of the world population.

Spanish Flu killed 33% of the world population.

COVID killed 0.00625% of the world population.

You ever heard of the term "prevention paradox" ?

The COVID numbers are to a certain extent so low, BECAUSE of the extreme lockdown everywhere.

We don´t know, where we would stand now without it.

But i agree, if you overreact, like Thailand, we´ll never get to herd immunity here.

 

 

[hobz]

4 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Not quite! Of course QE can help devalue a currency but Thailand has no appetite to take on debt or the inflation that would follow, if they get the scale of it wrong - the government had to be coerced by the IMF to operate a larger budget deficit for goodness sake because they are so risk averse.

 

BOT has no remit to initiate QE and successive governments have shied away from issuing debt which is why their borrowings are so low at 42% of GDP (53% post bail out). And unless productivity gains can be released in the Thai economy, QE would only lead to higher inflation, Thailand has had great difficulty increasing productivity which is why the whole money printing concept is a non-starter. 

 

When I refer to the Baht not being fully convertible I do so in the context of making it weaker. One way the country could weaken the Baht is to make it fully convertible but even today the country is reluctant to do that for fear that speculators will take a position against it, another throwback to the '97 crash.

 

Almost 96% of government debt is in THB, only 4% is in foreign currency loans. If Thailand were to borrow in USD this would mean selling THB for USD which would result in a weakening of the currency and this is exactly what is intended with the high speed rail link contract with China which is to be paid in USD. Thailand is in the process of fixing a forward rate on that loan at a time when the Baht is strong and USD is weak, that is sensible borrowing which may help weaken THB and be the precursor to further loans along the same lines.

 

 

Wow, you really know your <deleted>. Would love to have a beer with you and just talk economy.

 

So to sum up what you said (this is btw my problem, I like to sum up complex things into simple terms): even if they did want to devalue the THB (we both kind of agree that they don't want to) it's not as simple as printing money, because it could spiral out of control and / or massively damage the economy by some shock effects. And an easier way would be to make it fully convertible but it's dangerous for similar reasons, it could spiral out of control due to speculators and the shock to the system?

[morrobay]

Isn't it the case that the BOT does not allow the baht to be fully convertible  because they and every one else knows it is overvalued, and therefore would be vulnerable to speculator currency attack. Eg selling the currency, stocks, bonds denominated in baht? 

[Trillian]

1 minute ago, morrobay said:

Isn't it the case that the BOT does not allow the baht to be fully convertible  because they and every one else knows it is overvalued, and therefore would be vulnerable to speculator currency attack. Eg selling the currency, stocks, bonds denominated in baht? 

I think it's true that Thailand fears external influence, speculators etc, shades of Soros and '97. 

 

Whether or not it is overvalued is another question, I believe it is not. The FOREX market sets the value of THB based on deals that have been transacted during the previous 24 hours and BOT has to agree that rate each day, in that respect the rate is confirmed based on economic fundamentals and also independently by the FOREX market. If the trading world felt the ex.rate was wrong a lower rate would prevail. If BOT disagreed with that lower rate an onshore and offshore market would develop, thus far that has happened since the withholding tax issue of a few years ago.

[Trillian]

30 minutes ago, hobz said:

Wow, you really know your <deleted>. Would love to have a beer with you and just talk economy.

 

So to sum up what you said (this is btw my problem, I like to sum up complex things into simple terms): even if they did want to devalue the THB (we both kind of agree that they don't want to) it's not as simple as printing money, because it could spiral out of control and / or massively damage the economy by some shock effects. And an easier way would be to make it fully convertible but it's dangerous for similar reasons, it could spiral out of control due to speculators and the shock to the system?

Yes I think that's correct, although as with any complex issue any potential solution is multifaceted. Increasing debt would help weaken THB but would generally be a bad thing; increasing imports and erasing the trade surplus would prevent excess foreign currency building in the foreign currency reserves which over time would help weaken the Baht but would leave Thai monopolies open to challenge from overseas producers; increasing borrowings in foreign currency would also help as THB was sold for USD however exchange rate risk becomes a serious concern, I'm sure there are other ways also.

 

BOT has been taking small steps on a number of different fronts to try and reduce  Baht strength and this includes allowing exporters to keep export sales proceeds overseas for longer, allowing citizens to invest overseas, allowing overseas funds transfers more freely, entering into currency swap agreements which prevents THB from strengthening as export sales proceeds were repatriated for Baht (60% of all export bills are settled in USD). But those steps haven't been enough to make a sizeable dent in Baht strength, it hasn't helped of course that USD has weakened, it's been around 96.0 on the Dollar Index for some time.

[3NUMBAS]

same in UK towns some shops open with a reduced footfall and many wont open again .offices empty of workers and cafes neaby are empty .workers laid off till who knows when

[mommysboy]

More like only 30% will survive. 

[Tony125]

On 7/13/2020 at 4:47 PM, poskat said:

looks like a lot of cute tour guides will be soon doing the nana shuffle

 

better paydays for them too

No, because if you haven't been around Bangkok and Pattaya there are no tourists to visit Nana, Patpong and Pattaya. Was at Sala  Dang/Patpong the other day the street that has vendors selling all kinds of tourist stuff was completly vacant except for 1 vendor selling watches. All the stalls selling Mango/sticky rice , barbacu meats, sausages all gone. Most of the bars, go-go bars are closed. A Subway, Chinese resturant , Pharmacy gone.equipment is gone so are not just closed.   Sushi/green tea Shop (at BTS Mochit )  gone.

In Pattaya many massage shops closed as well as  beer bars  (I didn't get down to Walking Street) Even 7--11's on Second Road closed as not enough tourists buying stuff to keep them open.  Hooter's in Sala Dang area BKK and the one on Beach Road,Pattaya closed. The Thai Gov may not think they need farang tourists but a lot of lower paid Thai's might disagree.

Edited July 14, 2020 by Tony125

[Xi Tha Virus]

Just don't know why i came to think of the frog in my garden?

[Xi Tha Virus]

Hopefully the entire fake industry will shut down permanently.

[Trillian]

Re. the earlier discussion about QE.

 

A quote from BOT this morning in the newspaper that may not be linked:

 

"QE may not help recovery because there is already sufficient liquidity in the system", another basic reason why printing money is of no value in this instance.

 

[tribalfusion001]

After the mishaps with the positive cases going walk about this week, it's going to be 2 week quarantine for everyone to get in. There is a market for longer length stays though, but that is not enough to save all businesses in the tourism sector. Tough times ahead without short term tourists.

[jayboy]

On 7/12/2020 at 6:23 AM, Fex Bluse said:

No worries. Tourism is only 9% of the Thai economy. Right? Right? 

It's not right because there will be a negative impact on businesses associated with this sector.But you are correct to point out that the tourism industry is much less important than many commentators on this forum apparently believe.Thailand will feel the impact but it's not a death blow.

[Tony125]

Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine candidate appears to be safe and provide some immunity, new data from early trial shows

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/moderna-s-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-appears-to-be-safe-and-provide-some-immunity-new-data-from-early-trial-shows/ar-BB16JC3z?li=BBnba9O