Nearly one-third of tourism-related businesses 'may shut down permanently'

[drbeach]

12 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

That's a strong possibility.  Maybe even half, but new operators will start new businesses as the situation improves so eventually the serfs will gain employment and all the tubby little Issan girls will be back serving beer...and other things.   

Won't happen if they continue with this "new normal" <deleted> for much longer. Tourists have to be allowed back and without being tracked like they're prisoners. And even expats like me won't be going down to the bar if we have to wear a face mask and use a tracking app only to stare at strange looking women wearing masks that make them look like aliens.

 

If this mask wearing nonsense continues until next year - it's bye bye Thailand for most of us and most certainly the end of tourism in the country.

[Time to grow]

30 minutes ago, Mikeasq60 said:

Where do you obtain your information I want to be at the same level of knowledge as yourself?

Reputable sources around the world. I am sure an internet savvy individual such as yourself could figure it out if they wanted to.

 

Corona Virus isn't going away. More pandemics are coming. International borders aren't going to open as they were before. Most people wont be subjecting themselves to the confined space of an airplane for any length of time. The knock-on effects go on and on.

 

Throw in the imminent collapse of fiat currency and peer reviewed scientific evidence that we are on the doorstep of extinction and you might come to the conclusion that it is a new paradigm, like it or not.

 

 

[Grumpy John]

Anyway, there is a simple way of judging how bad things can get.  The wife being a mango grower the closing of the borders had an impact on the bottom line last season and I am fairly confident it will have an negative impact next season. So lets take mangoes as our measure.  When we had close to 40 million tourists I'll make the assumption everyone had one mango during their stay.  OK, some like me will eat 2 or 3 a day...and some will have none.  Average size #4, yellow mangoes, are 2.5 to 3 to a kilo.  So that would mean somewhere around 13.500.000kg to 16.000.000kg would be consumed by tourists.  13500 - 16000 tons.  Not sure of the export numbers but 10's of thousands of tons are exported.  Around 30.000 ton in 2015.  https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/5.1 Export of Mango from Thailand, Chachengsao Mango Cooperative_Ms. Bunsiri_Kasetsart.pdf  Against a total production of all types that is 2.5 million tons +/- annually of all types it doesn't look like a big drop...but it is!  The price crash of mangoes was because there was a glut and the local market couldn't absorb the extra!  People with no job and little money don't buy mangoes, they buy food to survive.  Food processors are limited to production machinery and available staff no matter how good the price...plus they want specific variety. So just one thing going wrong, the mango glut, can cause devastation in rural areas for people like my wife who lost close to 100.000 baht.  And we have to raid my wallet to make up the difference to pay for the pruning people...18500 baht this year.  Another 12.000 baht for chemi and fertiliser...so far, Plus diesel, tractor maintenance, benzine, etc.  So the point I am going to make is tourism maybe only 9% of the GDP but the impact of the Wuhan China virus has a far greater impact that just bars, hotels and restaurants.  

[djayz]

Considering how the quality of the service in many businesses in the hospitality sector has dropped over the last few years, I for one amn't sad to read this.

 

Over the past few years, I've been made to fell more like a nuisance in many restaurants, cafes, bars, shops, etc. with staff who are either too busy on their phones or playing around with colleagues to serve us; smileless, joyless welcomes - if any at all -; menus thrust into my hand by service staff who then just stand there impatiently with pen and paper ready to take my order immediately - heaven's forbid I should waste their time browsing through the menu!; sometimes being told "sorry, no have this, no have that" - owner doesn't know how to keep inventory? 

 

I know a lot of people have lost their jobs, and more will in the coming months, and are now struggling to survive, but sometimes life is hard. A lot of them will probably find employment in other sectors. If it weeds out the bad establishments from the good, then so be it. 

 

I'd give anything if I could see a genuine smile again upon entering a restaurant, like 10 - 15 years ago. It really warmed my heart and made me return time and time again. 

 

Now it feels more like we're on a production line - next please! 

Edited July 12, 2020 by djayz

[LEKPHUKET]

Sure thats why the government keeps the country closed to achieve a goal,more jobless people and more poor people, they are easier to oppress 

[umlungu2012]

10 hours ago, The Barmbeker said:

Yeah...so nice, with the millions of jobless from the tourist sector!

But as long as you are alright, everything is hunky dory!

Yes, exactly. Everything is hunky dory for once for those that appreciate everything without buses, traffic congestion, etc. And do tell, why is there an obligation on individuals to always think of the "millions of jobless" as a priority vis-a-vis one's own life and existence?

[expat_4_life]

33 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

Anyway, there is a simple way of judging how bad things can get.  The wife being a mango grower the closing of the borders had an impact on the bottom line last season and I am fairly confident it will have an negative impact next season. So lets take mangoes as our measure.  When we had close to 40 million tourists I'll make the assumption everyone had one mango during their stay.  OK, some like me will eat 2 or 3 a day...and some will have none.  Average size #4, yellow mangoes, are 2.5 to 3 to a kilo.  So that would mean somewhere around 13.500.000kg to 16.000.000kg would be consumed by tourists.  13500 - 16000 tons.  Not sure of the export numbers but 10's of thousands of tons are exported.  Around 30.000 ton in 2015.  https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/5.1 Export of Mango from Thailand, Chachengsao Mango Cooperative_Ms. Bunsiri_Kasetsart.pdf  Against a total production of all types that is 2.5 million tons +/- annually of all types it doesn't look like a big drop...but it is!  The price crash of mangoes was because there was a glut and the local market couldn't absorb the extra!  People with no job and little money don't buy mangoes, they buy food to survive.  Food processors are limited to production machinery and available staff no matter how good the price...plus they want specific variety. So just one thing going wrong, the mango glut, can cause devastation in rural areas for people like my wife who lost close to 100.000 baht.  And we have to raid my wallet to make up the difference to pay for the pruning people...18500 baht this year.  Another 12.000 baht for chemi and fertiliser...so far, Plus diesel, tractor maintenance, benzine, etc.  So the point I am going to make is tourism maybe only 9% of the GDP but the impact of the Wuhan China virus has a far greater impact that just bars, hotels and restaurants.  

Correct, the economic impact is not just limited to the tourism industry.

 

Also, one-third of the tourism industry is a BIG hit. Of course the impact will not be evenly distributed across the entire sector.
The places in close proximity to Bangkok will fare much better.

People say the tourism industry is only 9% of the economy, maybe it's more, I've seen 15% mentioned before.

But the one thing we can't discuss intelligently is what percent of the Thai people support themselves or their families with tourism dollars.  I would guess it is significantly higher than the 9% (or whatever) number.

Unfortunately we have no data to analyze.  Mostly it is just guessing.

 

[VBF]

1 hour ago, Time to grow said:

Reputable sources around the world. I am sure an internet savvy individual such as yourself could figure it out if they wanted to.

 

Corona Virus isn't going away. More pandemics are coming. International borders aren't going to open as they were before. Most people wont be subjecting themselves to the confined space of an airplane for any length of time. The knock-on effects go on and on.

 

Throw in the imminent collapse of fiat currency and peer reviewed scientific evidence that we are on the doorstep of extinction and you might come to the conclusion that it is a new paradigm, like it or not.

 

 

I think "doorstep of extinction" is possibly  the slightest bit excessive....don't you?

But if we are, I'd be happy to be killed off trapped in one of my favourite Pattaya establishments...what a way to go! ????

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, Time to grow said:

Reputable sources around the world.

Can you please name and link to some of your reputable sources. ????

[Blumpie]

Seems a little low to me but I don't know the ins and outs.  

Tourism planet wide won't run until there is a vaccine, a treatment plan, or we let it run it's course.  I hope it becomes less virulent and we can just let it go.  

[metisdead]

Offensive posts, inflammatory posts and the replies have been removed. 

[John CS]

3 hours ago, Sean60 said:

It is amazing how these rich people sitting in their homes are so far away from the misery people are having. How low the respect for other humans can be? People are suffering big time. We don't sleep and depress. Open up the country. You have had 4 months to get your act together. this country need the tourism. The debt is pilling high, people are getting poorer every day. For what? 

For Control Sean60, retention of wealth & power

[John CS]

57 minutes ago, LEKPHUKET said:

Sure thats why the government keeps the country closed to achieve a goal,more jobless people and more poor people, they are easier to oppress 

Agree

[GAZZPA]

Surely time to act, if Thailand allow the situation to go much further they will put themselves decades behind in economic recovery. I really fear for the people of Thailand, it's going to get ugly, people are going to get desperate. I can see increases in homelessness, suicides, burglary, muggings etc, horrible situation.

 

not sure what the answer is but the government needs to do something,, perhaps invest in massive infrastructure projects to create employment and put the country in a better place when recovery comes so they can compete in SE Asia,,, announcements of doom dont help anyone,

[George FmplesdaCosteedback]

14 hours ago, ezzra said:

I hope that the tourism related business that uses the ugly and racist double pricing policies will fall and shut down first for good...

I would agree but the way you have expressed this it sounds like you want all the National Parks and Monuments (like Wat Phra Kaew) to close down before the hotels, bars and restaurants. Maybe that's not a bad idea though.

[John CS]

2 hours ago, drbeach said:

Won't happen if they continue with this "new normal" <deleted> for much longer. Tourists have to be allowed back and without being tracked like they're prisoners. And even expats like me won't be going down to the bar if we have to wear a face mask and use a tracking app only to stare at strange looking women wearing masks that make them look like aliens.

 

If this mask wearing nonsense continues until next year - it's bye bye Thailand for most of us and most certainly the end of tourism in the country.

Thats the challenge , Control against freedom and generally what will win will be what is profitable , lets see   

[Blumpie]

6 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

 

 

not sure what the answer is but the government needs to do something,, perhaps invest in massive infrastructure projects to create employment and put the country in a better place when recovery comes so they can compete in SE Asia,,, announcements of doom dont help anyone,

You may not know the answer because there isn't any answer that will satisfy you.  This isn't Thailands fault, this is the entire planet under a pandemic.  Thailand, do fling the doors open and see what happens.  Nothing will happen;  nobody will come other than infectious expats, permanent residents, and our poor souls stranded away from their families over seas.  No tourism.  There is no tourism.  Not here, not in europe, not in north america, south america, nowhere.  It's over, fini.  And I will bet you every penny you have no Chinese tourists will come because China would never, in a million years, allow their tourists to come back into the country.  

 

Our world is too dependent on tourism and this is the unfortunate result.  The planes are parked and staff have been let go permanently, meaning they will not be coming back.  

 

 

[Time to grow]

47 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Can you please name and link to some of your reputable sources.

I am not here to hold your hand. You are likely just as capable as I am to research a topic. But that's not really what this is about is it?

[rott]

5 hours ago, OneeyedJohn said:

He looks a proper charlie at his age and with that ridiculous haircut.

 

Did someone squirt something in his eyes?

Er calm down lad, I look just like that. 

Perhaps he's smiling cause me and him get all the best looking women. 

[Blumpie]

6 minutes ago, Time to grow said:

I am not here to hold your hand. You are likely just as capable as I am to research a topic. But that's not really what this is about is it?

I know, <deleted> is wrong with people?  I get all kinds asking me for links to news stories, information that is widely available and even widely reported here on Thai Forum.  

 

www.google.com

 

[Time to grow]

1 hour ago, VBF said:

I think "doorstep of extinction" is possibly  the slightest bit excessive....don't you?

I guess that depends on your definition of doorstep. There are several peer reviewed scientific papers supporting various events over the next five years that are likely to cause our species to go extinct. From my perspective, five years is on our doorstep.

[John CS]

3 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

You may not know the answer because there isn't any answer that will satisfy you.  This isn't Thailands fault, this is the entire planet under a pandemic.  Thailand, do fling the doors open and see what happens.  Nothing will happen;  nobody will come other than infectious expats, permanent residents, and our poor souls stranded away from their families over seas.  No tourism.  There is no tourism.  Not here, not in europe, not in north america, south america, nowhere.  It's over, fini.  And I will bet you every penny you have no Chinese tourists will come because China would never, in a million years, allow their tourists to come back into the country.  

 

Our world is too dependent on tourism and this is the unfortunate result.  The planes are parked and staff have been let go permanently, meaning they will not be coming back.  

 

 

Reliance on Tourism is a problem, but so is over reliance or expectation from your Government, responsibility lies with the individual, this plandemic is a rigged scenario the actual statistics are beginning to prove this IFR infection fatility rates are less than influenza,

HIT Herd immunity threshold is negligible 

So as an individual think, why so much Media hype & hysteria? Why all these controls on us ?from this understanding comes personal strength , and reality , it does not guarantee that reality is a comfort!

[Time to grow]

21 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

You may not know the answer because there isn't any answer that will satisfy you.  This isn't Thailands fault, this is the entire planet under a pandemic.  Thailand, do fling the doors open and see what happens.  Nothing will happen;  nobody will come other than infectious expats, permanent residents, and our poor souls stranded away from their families over seas.  No tourism.  There is no tourism.  Not here, not in europe, not in north america, south america, nowhere.  It's over, fini.  And I will bet you every penny you have no Chinese tourists will come because China would never, in a million years, allow their tourists to come back into the country.  

 

Our world is too dependent on tourism and this is the unfortunate result.  The planes are parked and staff have been let go permanently, meaning they will not be coming back.  

 

Well said! People just don't get it.

[elliss]

15 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

That's a strong possibility.  Maybe even half, but new operators will start new businesses as the situation improves so eventually the serfs will gain employment and all the tubby little Issan girls will be back serving beer...and other things.   

 

 Not tubby any more . 

 Many Big White Buffaloes ,  go back home , scare Covid-19 .

  Lady bar , money down .

   Buyer's  market , i like them under 40 kg . and under 25 years ..

 

Edited July 12, 2020 by elliss

[GAZZPA]

39 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

You may not know the answer because there isn't any answer that will satisfy you.  This isn't Thailands fault, this is the entire planet under a pandemic.  Thailand, do fling the doors open and see what happens.  Nothing will happen;  nobody will come other than infectious expats, permanent residents, and our poor souls stranded away from their families over seas.  No tourism.  There is no tourism.  Not here, not in europe, not in north america, south america, nowhere.  It's over, fini.  And I will bet you every penny you have no Chinese tourists will come because China would never, in a million years, allow their tourists to come back into the country.  

 

Our world is too dependent on tourism and this is the unfortunate result.  The planes are parked and staff have been let go permanently, meaning they will not be coming back.  

 

 

I agree, I didn't say it was Thailands fault did I, read my post properly before you have a dig at me. What I was saying (which i thought was very clear) is the the Thai government need to do something and might be a good idea for infrastructure development as tourism is obviously a long way off,, do you get it?

[lockman07]

Great news, but I was hoping that it would be over 50%.  They've been robbing, cheating & killing tourists for years with their racist ideology & dual pricing etc.  You reap what you sow...

[Blumpie]

28 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

I agree, I didn't say it was Thailands fault did I, read my post properly before you have a dig at me. What I was saying (which i thought was very clear) is the the Thai government need to do something and might be a good idea for infrastructure development as tourism is obviously a long way off,, do you get it?

Yes, I read what you said carefully and my apologies for making it seem like I was taking a dig at you.  

There is no answer, it's a brutal situation.  Everyone is suffering earth wide.  

 

To the other poster, I have no interest in answering anyone who calls a pandemic a plandemic (sic).  It surprises me that Thailand allows you to even write such outrageous garbage on this forum without being deleted.

[ThailandRyan]

Khao San is a deserted place. Over 2/3rds of businesses closed and more closing. Went last night and again tonight to my favorite restaurant only to see a ghost town. More bar workers trying to get the veey few walkers into the bars. Sad actually.

[VBF]

1 hour ago, Time to grow said:

I guess that depends on your definition of doorstep. There are several peer reviewed scientific papers supporting various events over the next five years that are likely to cause our species to go extinct. From my perspective, five years is on our doorstep.

I wish I knew that for certain......What a five years I'd have without having to make my savings last any longer.

And yes, i'm being slightly flippant but not as much as you might think.

[robbioff]

13 hours ago, RR2020 said:

How is the South Korea 2nd wave ?  media was salivating over that recently wanting it to happen.........FAIL

 

How is the Beijing 2nd wave ? media was salivating over that recently wanting it to happen.........FAIL

 

The UK 2nd wave after protests and beaches full ?  media was salivating over that recently wanting it to happen.........FAIL

 

Media running out of scare stories ?  Now they are trying to hype up a Bollywood actor getting it.........its as if they want him to die to have a headline........... 

 

Thailand more people die on one weekend in road accidents than 6 months of Covid-19 ?

 

Cases of Covid rising but deaths going down rapidly ?

 

Now being realised most people have a T-cell response and are asymptomatic ?

 

Only 20% of people who get it may have an Antigen response ?  80% having a T-cell response ? Measuring for IgG or IgM is useless as most people T cell response ?

 

IFR rate projections now pointing to 0.05% to 0.1% (eg same as strong flu)

 

Projections now that 60% or more of the worlds population may already be immune from having a previous coronavirus infection (common cold).

 

Circa 2 million people dying from Tuberculosis every year and nobody cares (and there is a vaccine for it) ? Its a contagious disease - boring though isnt it just 2 million dead every year ?

 

The high early death rates seen was due to incorrect medical treatment ?  Using steroids killed people ? Using ventilators killed people ?

 

Now they know how to treat it (no steroids, no ventilators, use blood thinners etc...) death rates becoming very low ?

 

Euromono data how shows fewer people are dying in Europe than normal - gone from excess mortality weekly to now very few people dying weekly ?

 

2020 if this continues with less deaths than normal now, will see the year as a whole have exactly normal number of deaths same as every year ? EG Covid-19 in 2020 will see no additional deaths than is normal and this scenario is looking very likely now based on the Euromono data coming out.

 

 

At some point the world is going to realise that, looking back, in hindsight, this virus was nothing much, the media made it into something that it really was not and hundreds of millions of people suffered the consequences of that fear mongering.

 

Tourism in Thailand will die if this stupidity continues, the question is, who opens first wins............  If Thailand opens too late, or with too many restrictions, the losses will be more than other Asian countries and it may take 10 years to recover.............

 

 

 

 

 

Spot on Sir!