New COVID-19 infections in Thailand are highly contagious G viral strain – Dr. Yong

[soalbundy]

3 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

keep the borders closed. 

 

good job Thailand. 

I saw an American doctor on Youtube recently saying that covid is probably here to stay and that a vaccine won't help much. Covid is a cousin of the common cold and influenza, the virus causing these two conditions mutates every year so that a vaccine is of little help as it will only help with the old strain and we will always be running after the new strain's development. It will probably end up being seasonal like influenza, every autumn and winter a new strain so it would seem we will have to live with it, influenza kills tens of thousands every year and we have gotten used to it. It seems to prefer temperatures of 4 Centigrade so we should be alright in Thailand. A virus doesn't try to kill its host, that would be counterproductive, it wants its host to live and spread it around, the deaths that have occured arise from an overreaction from the body's own immune reaction from some of the victims. 

[DrTuner]

21 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Its reported that the G strain is more infectious yes, by around 10 times, but I've found no study claiming it to be less lethal?

Even if it was, the absolute number of deaths would be higher. Simply because more people with pre-existing conditions would catch it.

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, stephenterry said:

but more survivors would become immune - which is the next best outcome to a vaccine.

There is a lot of discussion that this is far from certain, with claims that the immunity is short lived. 

[Shaunduhpostman]

Enough is enough. What complete nonsense on top of nonsense from the good Chinese doctor here.

[poskat]

found in those in quarantine, i.e. no danger to society at large...

 

this guy's phd must be in fear mongering with a minor in what if

 

[Enoon]

52 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

 It will probably end up being seasonal like influenza, every autumn and winter a new strain so it would seem we will have to live with it, influenza kills tens of thousands every year and we have gotten used to it.

Yes.

 

Come the end of the year, here in the UK, overall deaths, from all causes, will be higher than usual.

 

But not much higher, because most of the COVID deaths have been people who had a high death expectancy, this year, anyway.

 

COVID has just brought the yearly deaths forward and "bunched them up".......its a "Euthanasia" virus.

 

Given that 88% of the deaths in the UK have been over 65's, it's a gift for an exchequer that wants to reduce, in the medium/long term, health service and pension costs.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 13, 2020 by Enoon

[Anton9]

36 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

There is a lot of discussion that this is far from certain, with claims that the immunity is short lived. 

If the immunity is short lived, a vaccine is totally useless.

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

If the immunity is short lived, a vaccine is totally useless.

Not really, worse case scenario would be the same as flu vaccine, once a year

[Patts]

2 hours ago, Anton9 said:

https://time.com/5842669/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission/

Wow, quote an article of one instance to verify your comments is not proof of 80% asymptomatic theory. There could be many reasons that affected the result of this particular cruise ship such as defective (Chinese) tests giving false positives or different strain of the virus. All the scientific papers suggest asymptomatic patients account for 40 to 50% of cases. 

[Anton9]

1 minute ago, Patts said:

Wow, quote an article of one instance to verify your comments is not proof of 80% asymptomatic theory. There could be many reasons that affected the result of this particular cruise ship such as defective (Chinese) tests giving false positives or different strain of the virus. All the scientific papers suggest asymptomatic patients account for 40 to 50% of cases. 

Majority of thais in state quarantine are asymptomatic, that's kind of a proof to me.

[Anton9]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Not really, worse case scenario would be the same as flu vaccine, once a year

Yes, we all know flu vaccines works perfectly.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Anton9 said:

Yes, we all know flu vaccines works perfectly.

Flu vaccine, even when just 20% effective, saves tens of thousands of lives a year in the US alone. 

[SkyFax]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Its reported that the G strain is more infectious yes, by around 10 times, but I've found no study claiming it to be less lethal?

Even if it was, the absolute number of deaths would be higher. Simply because more people with pre-existing conditions would catch it.

"It is still unknown whether this small (D614G) mutation affects the severity of symptoms of infected people, or increases mortality, the scientists say. While ICU data from New York and elsewhere reports a preponderance of the new D614G variant, much more data, ideally under controlled studies, are needed, (Scripps Research virologist Hyeryun Choe, PhD, senior author of the study) says."

 

https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200612-choe-farzan-coronavirus-spike-mutation.html

Edited July 13, 2020 by SkyFax

[HashBrownHarry]

5 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

keep the borders closed. 

 

good job Thailand. 

And what about lockdown again, were you not one of the people crying about not being able to leave Hua Hin?

[John CS]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

This is so insidious. One loose infectious person and we're off to the races. 

Yes as foreseen , now we have let the state impose control over our lives for the better??

Flight and movement will be limited in future , & there is always a chance of a new risky virus will happen to ensure Control is maintained 

Even though there are less than 60 deaths in a population of 60million , we have sleepwalked into this....

Eventually rejection of this Global influenza pandemic strategy should happen , lockdowns & emergency acts repealed 

otherwise our freedoms , rights have been given up for the future of Globalistic authoritarianism 

Keep healthy 

 

[Jingthing]

29 minutes ago, John CS said:

Yes as foreseen , now we have let the state impose control over our lives for the better??

Flight and movement will be limited in future , & there is always a chance of a new risky virus will happen to ensure Control is maintained 

Even though there are less than 60 deaths in a population of 60million , we have sleepwalked into this....

Eventually rejection of this Global influenza pandemic strategy should happen , lockdowns & emergency acts repealed 

otherwise our freedoms , rights have been given up for the future of Globalistic authoritarianism 

Keep healthy 

 

You're complaining about the success of the Thailand lockdown. 

How predictable. 

Public health people are darned if if they do and darned if they don't. 

I'm sure the good people of Arizona and Brazil would like to be complaining about mitigation success 

Lockdowns work. 

Arizona is a great example. 

Started too late and opened too early and now they're f-ed. 

Edited July 13, 2020 by Jingthing

[Jingthing]

4 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Herd Immunity May Be Closer Than You Think https://www.wsj.com/articles/herd-immunity-may-be-closer-than-you-think-11594076237

Paywall link. 

Cannot read. 

[smedly]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

the G strain virus, or G614, will be dominant, because it is about ten times more contagious than the S strain

this is complete bull

 

and from a country who have no clue how many have been infected or died because they don't test

[digger70]

5 hours ago, Anton9 said:

Yes, we are all going to die with a rate of asymptomatics of 80%.

 

Yep we're going All to Die, The Big Planet Earth Can look after itself.

It will be free again for the animals to roam the entire planet. 

 

It Won't happen Overnight but it Will Happen

Edited July 13, 2020 by digger70

[KhaoYai]

Getting a little tiring:

 

Foreigners are dirty.

 

What was it last year - foreigners to be taught how to drive because we are causing too may accidents.

 

Since time immemorial - all murders commited on Thai holiday islands are commited by foreigners.

 

Now even our Covid 19 is worse than theirs.

 

Jeez...........????????????????????????

[Letseng]

6 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

keep the borders closed. 

 

good job Thailand. 

Except for this Egyptian airman  landing at U Tapao. & running round Rayong with his mates. Once he left they found the test was positive. No quarantine for them.

Non-visa holders are too risky.

 

 

[Upnotover]

6 minutes ago, Letseng said:

Except for this Egyptian airman  landing at U Tapao. & running round Rayong with his mates. Once he left they found the test was positive. No quarantine for them.

Non-visa holders are too risky.

 

 

Running around Rayong and a day trip to China.  Wonder what they had for lunch?

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Upnotover said:

Running around Rayong and a day trip to China.  Wonder what they had for lunch?

Fried Bat Wings....

[steelepulse]

4 hours ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

and some people in "power" here over react even worse when you try to tell your point of view

Indeed, especially if it's from an " unauthorized source" backed up with facts that don't tow the party line.

[steelepulse]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

You're complaining about the success of the Thailand lockdown. 

How predictable. 

Public health people are darned if if they do and darned if they don't. 

I'm sure the good people of Arizona and Brazil would like to be complaining about mitigation success 

Lockdowns work. 

Arizona is a great example. 

Started too late and opened too early and now they're f-ed. 

Not if you're healthy.  Problem is no one is doing anything to boost their immune systems, changing their diet, exercising, or getting off the carbs and sugar.  So instead, we have unhealthy people getting sick and others spreading fear.

[tomauasia]

7 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

keep the borders closed. 

 

good job Thailand. 

Can you leave 

[tomauasia]

7 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Stay safe, but travel freely within the borders by doing it wisely.  Thai's seem to believe they are living in a bubble without the possibility that the virus is still here and in hiding...

Yes but not everyone on this forum has brains lol

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, tomauasia said:

Can you leave 

Why would he want too, same as myself, life is good. If your question is can we fly out if needed the answer is yes, but why?

[CALSinCM]

Well.  You've been warned peoples.  Second wave is coming and everyone is gonna die.  Masks on!!!  Stay at home!!!  Stay off the beach, it will kill you!!!

[rabas]

6 hours ago, morrobay said:

https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200611-choe-farzan-sars-cov-2-spike-protein.html

This is the D614G (random) mutation:  A gene codon for aspartic acid (D) was replaced for a codon for glycine (G) Since this altered the secondary protein structure* in a way that increased the virus spike protein  binding sites to the host target receptor, ACE2 it increases infectivity. However intra host viral replication is decreased. So less serious cases but more of them. Again a textbook case of natural selection : greater host to host transmission but less deadly . If host dies so does virus.

*Primary protein structure is amino acid sequence in protein chain.

 

He is not saying the new G strain leads to less severe cases. He's not talking about decreased live viral particle shedding in patients.  Rather, he sees  less shedding of the S1 protein (one small piece of the spike) from his test-tube experiments, suggesting the S protein structure is more stable.

 

Increased S protein stability leads to greater infectivity because  there is more S protein available, not because the S protein attacks the ACE2 receptor better. Same old bullets just more of them. See here. He also shows the new S protein should not be any more susceptible to antibodies and does not suggest it is less severe. A couple comments from the paper:

 

(Fig. 1b), indicating a transmission advantage over viruses with D614. Korber et al. noted that this change also correlated with increased viral loads in COVID-19 patients[22]

An interesting question is why viruses carrying the more stable SG614 appear to be more transmissible without resulting in a major observable difference in disease severity[22,27]

 

So, it's basically the same old virus but now on a Ducati rather than a Honda Wing.