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Why does everyone think an announcement is coming?


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1 hour ago, Caldera said:

It ultimately becomes a numbers issue at this point. Let's take Europe as an example. Currently there might be about five outbound flights to Europe per day that actually happen (including flights that require and allow transiting somewhere in between), so about 1,000 foreigners from Europe could fly home per day. 16 days remain till July 31, so if there are more than 16,000 Europeans still here on amnesty they cannot possibly all leave. Each day that passes without an announcement, fewer and fewer people would be able to leave. No real alternatives either, as land borders and flights to nearby countries remain a no-go.

 

I think if they had intended not to extend the amnesty, they would have announced that at the end of last month. As I don't know how many people are still here on amnesty, however, I don't know how much time in advance they really need to give people.

 

Maybe with these figures there might a 15 days to one month extension. Still I doubt if that would solve the problem. Also after what happened in Rayon it might result in even fewer flights which means a longer period of getting these tourists out. I agree that if Thai authorities don't make an announcement very soon it will be an overall logistical problem. Hope wisdom will prevail. 

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There is an Emergency decree in place with a ban on International Passenger flights arriving in Thailand. 

Many other countries also have some form of travel restrictions and while its ‘possible’ for everyone to leave Thailand if they really need to, it may not be that easy for some nationalities with fewer flights departing.

 

Thailand has set a precedent that they can and will apply an amnesty for all foreigners. There is no reason to think that this amnesty will not be extended with a certain grace period. 

 

The Panic? people want to know what’s going on and not leave it too late. The attitude of the those in decision making power is it that doesn’t matter who’s worrying they’ll announce the extensions when they feel like it (probably a week before).

 

My guess (and its just a guess) is that there will be continued Amnesty and Continued Emergency Decree banning regular passenger flights. 

Once passenger flights are permitted, my guess is there will be an extended amnesty of anywhere between 2 and 4 weeks to allow people to arrange flights and get home.

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, BritTim said:

If the primary purpose of multiple entry visas was to allow people to stay permanently in Thailand without needing to apply for extensions, I would agree with you. The fact is that people have (perfectly legitimately) been exploiting a loophole, using a visa intended for periodic visits as a means of staying indefinitely. Sadly, Immigration may be delighted at the opportunity to close that loophole, and force everyone who wants to stay long term to use extensions. I appreciate that some may not be able to meet the financial requirements for an extension, and I sympathise. However, those affected need to recognise the reality of the situation.

VISAs is the MFA's way of making money.

Extensions are immigration offices way of making money.

 

Two companies selling the same product, up to you which you buy from..

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6 minutes ago, DaftToPutRealName said:

I know right, those idiots on NON-B with work permits and companies; how dare they invest into the country, pay salaries to Thai nationals, take the economic risk of running with a corrupt bureaucracy.

They should have left long ago despite having long-term visas that require 90 day entry renewals; even if the border is closed, they have a house, car, pets, office and employees. Good guys out, bad guys out.

I couldn't help but notice that many of the most successful corporations in history do not have one employee in LOS.  COSTCO comes to mind..and they sell numerous Thai products, too.  But, they are in Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and even braved China.  Screw Walmart, but same thing applies.  

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7 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

VISAs is the MFA's way of making money.

Extensions are immigration offices way of making money.

 

Two companies selling the same product, up to you which you buy from..

And brown envelopes are their employees' way of making money.

Edited by moontang
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3 minutes ago, moontang said:

I couldn't help but notice that many of the most successful corporations in history do not have one employee in LOS.  COSTCO comes to mind..and they sell numerous Thai products, too.  But, they are in Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and even braved China.  Screw Walmart, but same thing applies.  

No doubt they had a right go at it - before figuring out that they're dropping 11k a month on an accountant to click "submit" on a macro, 35k for an agent extension for every executive, and no value on their paid taxes - and then moving somewhere else!

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7 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

VISAs is the MFA's way of making money.

Extensions are immigration offices way of making money.

 

Two companies selling the same product, up to you which you buy from..

Immigration officials make money from certain classes of extensions. MFA officials rarely profit from the visa system. Making people apply for visas is the primary way Thailand controls the entry of people into Thailand. Visa fees, in most cases, are not very profitable. They defray the costs of running consulates and providing visa services.

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29 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

Land borders closed and hardly any flights. My money is on an extension. Immigration are tough on people they think are gaming the visa system, but that's not the case here 

Let’s face it, they aren’t really tough on them, are they?

 

how many people have been able to game the system for decades? Worst they ever get is a few questions on arrival or have to provide additional documents when applying for new Visas 

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3 minutes ago, BritTim said:

Immigration officials make money from certain classes of extensions. MFA officials rarely profit from the visa system. Making people apply for visas is the primary way Thailand controls the entry of people into Thailand. Visa fees, in most cases, are not very profitable. They defray the costs of running consulates and providing visa services.

What's that got to do with anything?

Hardly the governments fault that Immigration are totally corrupt and appear to oppose the governments VISA and Extension rules in any way they can get away with (in order to maximise the bribes).

 

The MFA fees are way higher than official Immigration extension fees.

How can they not make a profit charging $200 for a 1 year non-o, that takes them 5 minutes to issue?

Edited by BritManToo
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July 14 I went to CW to apply for a Retirement Visa. After the normal bureaucratic nonsense, I will not comment on a figure that was written on a paper I guess to approve one aspect.

 

Anyway I was rejected and here's the explanation I received. I arrived at the end of January, visa exempt, did my 30 day trip to Laos and returned March 1.

Went to Phuket to visit friends, several days later my return flights (scheduled for March 30) were cancelled. I applied for the 30 day extension with Embassy letter and it was granted to stay until April 30. Meanwhile on April 23 (I seem to recall) the Gov't announced an amnesty until July 31 as you all know.

 

The Retirement visa instructions state that it must be applied for more than 15 days before the expiration of current visa expiration which I took to be July 31. I was told that has nothing to do with visa expiration, that I should have applied well before April 30. Now, the country was under lockdown, international arrivals banned and there was a state of emergency so how were people suppose to renew whatever visa they had that was going to expire sometime during the amnesty. I think there are many in this situation, but wonder if they received the same answer. 

In discussing the situation the officer said WAIT, and then I would have to apply at Muang Thong Thani for an extension of stay. I wondered, wait for what? There is not much time left until July 31 and there is a four day holiday July 25-28!!

 

My feeling, is there might not be amnesty so to speak but an instruction to apply for extensions during August. The officer never said or suggested to me to apply right away due to the impending end of the amnesty.

 

A fellow guest at my hotel who has another type of visa heard the exact same words from the person he deals with.

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14 hours ago, andux said:

I'm guessing that people are expecting an announcement because the situation worldwide has not improved.

 

It's not as simple as "I have a flight on July 29", because that flight will probably be canceled.

 

Also, the visa system in Thailand relies heavily on visa runs, and those are not possible at the moment.

 

Plus many more reasons.

A visa run doesn't have to be on land. 

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7 hours ago, ubonjoe said:

Incoming scheduled flights with passengers onboard that would disembark are still not allowed.

No need to bring more visa artists/tourists. 

Many flights out of LOS available. 

Just today there are flights to SIN, KUL, MNL, DOH, HKG, HGH, CAN, CCU. 

Most of them left on time. 

 

So what are you talking about nobody can leave LOS? 

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5 minutes ago, CH1961 said:

No need to bring more visa artists/tourists. 

Many flights out of LOS available. 

Just today there are flights to SIN, KUL, MNL, DOH, HKG, HGH, CAN, CCU. 

Most of them left on time. 

 

So what are you talking about nobody can leave LOS? 

And you have checked the connecting flights out of those locations?

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1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

VISAs is the MFA's way of making money.

Extensions are immigration offices way of making money.

 

Two companies selling the same product, up to you which you buy from..

Uh? These are not the same products!

And you say it yourself: Visa vs Extension. Very different.

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1 hour ago, moontang said:
1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

VISAs is the MFA's way of making money.

Extensions are immigration offices way of making money. //

And brown envelopes are their employees' way of making money.

- Never heard of brown envelopes in Thai Embassies or Consulates ??

- Very rarely heard of such envelopes in Immigrationgration Offices. I read about a few cases on this TV forum, but clearly it's the exception, not the rule.

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3 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

- Never heard of brown envelopes in Thai Embassies or Consulates ??

- Very rarely heard of such envelopes in Immigrationgration Offices. I read about a few cases on this TV forum, but clearly it's the exception, not the rule.

 

 

Are you being serious ?

 

 

I have never left an Immigration office without leaving a "tip".

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9 minutes ago, hotandsticky said:

Are you being serious ?

I have never left an Immigration office without leaving a "tip".

I am serious! I have NEVER left a tip in Immigration in 20+ years !

 

(only exception could be the 200B for the occasional Attestation of Residence for DL renewal)

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1 hour ago, Max69xl said:

A visa run doesn't have to be on land. 

Give me ONE example of flight out and subsequently be able to return to Thailand.

Flight out yes..Return zero.

Edited by DrJack54
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12 hours ago, PhoSai said:

I read somewhere that it could be as many as 200,000 foreigners on the amnesty policy. Most of those leaving via 1 airport within the next 2 weeks would be chaos and would not look good for Thailand's image.

Suvarnabhumi could process that in a couple of days, so airport capacity is not a limiting factor.

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4 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

Its not the airport capacity thats the issue , its the capacity of the aeroplanes leaving thats the issue

Agreed, but I was responding to a post that claimed the airport would be in chaos due to the numbers involved when that isn't the case.

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3 hours ago, CH1961 said:

No need to bring more visa artists/tourists. 

Many flights out of LOS available. 

Just today there are flights to SIN, KUL, MNL, DOH, HKG, HGH, CAN, CCU. 

Most of them left on time. 

 

So what are you talking about nobody can leave LOS? 

@CH1961

 

No need to be un valaisan de vernamiège to understand such situation could be more complex.

 

As a father and husband with non-o multiple we are used to move all family each year to your (and my) native country.

 

This year it's not possible. So we stay in Thailand.

 

We are not tourist. Artist, wish we are sometimes. Think twice before writing.

 

Thanks. Bonne.

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