Confusion amid reports Thailand's top economic team to resign

[torturedsole]

4 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Correct, this crisis has hardly started.

The global realisation will be achieved within a year from now and go from bad to worse thereafter.  

[Creasy]

What’s the problem?

 

Just exchange some guys that know things about the economy with some battle hardened, medal ladened generals.

-What could possibly go wrong?

[webfact]

Finance minister to quit along with Cabinet economics team

By The Nation

 

 

Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana announced today he will resign from his post tomorrow.

 

He also confirmed reports that Deputy PM Somkid Jatusripitak, Energy Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong, Minister of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation Suvit Maesincee and Kobsak Pootrakool, deputy secretary general to the PM for political affairs will also resign.

 

The group is credited with running Thailand’s economy but has reportedly come under pressure from factions within the ruling Palang Pracharat Party.

 

Sontirat, Suwit and Uttama earlier resigned from their Palang Pracharat Party executive posts.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30391379

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-07-16

 

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[Mike Teavee]

10 hours ago, LomSak27 said:

 

I was setting things up to reload my BK Account back to 800K, prepping for visa renewal. This little bit of news makes me feel all flipping warm and fuzzy ????   What is worse, it is not really a surprise.

 

You're assuming that your home currency will not perform worse than the THB which sadly for GBP, USD & EUR etc... is unlikely given how much money printing / rate cutting has gone on. 

 

I hope I'm wrong, but IMHO the UK's economy is going to drop by more than Thailand's which doesn't bode well for the GBP in the near term ???? 

 

[yellowboat]

When 78% of your GDP comes from foreign sources, and they no longer are buying, what can you do?

It's too late, but if cha cha had allowed more foreign investment and did not hassle tourists so MUCH, things may not be so bad.

 

 

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

When 78% of your GDP comes from foreign sources, and they no longer are buying, what can you do?

It's too late, but if cha cha had allowed more foreign investment and did not hassle tourists so MUCH, things may not be so bad.

 

 

What 78% is this, only 11.5% comes from international tourism?

[uffe123]

The military is trained to shoot people, not educated in economics. What do you expect.

[Trillian]

12 minutes ago, uffe123 said:

The military is trained to shoot people, not educated in economics. What do you expect.

What you don't understand is that every government in the world almost has a layer of capabilities that sits permanently just below the government and who manages things like the economy. In the UK and Thailand it's called the Civil Service and comprises permanent secretaries who manage Treasury and Finance functions on behalf of government. Government ministers are not expected or required to be experts in this or that, they are politicians who make decisions based on well researched and modelled facts, data and options presented to them by the permanent layer.

[Snackbar]

5% contraction is what they initially said, subsequently creeped up to 8%.

 

Makes zero sense, no tourism -  20%
 

 

[Trillian]

Just now, Snackbar said:

5% contraction is what they initially said, subsequently creeped up to 8%.

 

Makes zero sense, no tourism -  20%
 

 

And before we're done it may well creep up to 10%. The UK is now forecast to be 10%, that could easily end up being 14%.

 

There is some domestic tourism currently, some tourist resort locations are very busy on weekends. International tourism is 11.5% of GDP, domestic tourism is 7.5%. The first three months of the year were quite good, the next six will be very bad, the last three, who knows, overall that will give 8% once the other parts of the economy are factored in.

[Snackbar]

Tourism will return to ‘normal’ in October?

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, Snackbar said:

Tourism will return to ‘normal’ in October?

"the last three, who knows"......you do understand what "who knows" means!

[Bob12345]

48 minutes ago, Trillian said:

What 78% is this, only 11.5% comes from international tourism?

Exports are also part of "foreign sources".

[Trillian]

Just now, Bob12345 said:

Exports are also part of "foreign sources".

Some exports, some parts of exports, but not all by any means.

 

1. Machinery including computers: US$40.2 billion (16.4% of total exports)
2. Electrical machinery, equipment: $33.9 billion (13.8%)
3. Vehicles: $28.9 billion (11.8%)
4. Gems, precious metals: $15.7 billion (6.4%)
5. Rubber, rubber articles: $15.3 billion (6.3%)
6. Plastics, plastic articles: $13.3 billion (5.4%)
7. Mineral fuels including oil: $8.5 billion (3.5%)
8. Meat/seafood preparations: $6.7 billion (2.7%)
9. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.4 billion (2.2%)
10. Organic chemicals: $4.6 billion (1.9%)

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

[AhFarangJa]

Jumping before they are pushed............and no doubt with a big golden handshake and hefty pension for life before the trough dries up, thank you very much.

[paddypower]

48 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

When 78% of your GDP comes from foreign sources, and they no longer are buying, what can you do?

It's too late, but if cha cha had allowed more foreign investment and did not hassle tourists so MUCH, things may not be so bad.

 

 

it might surprise you to know that exports of food products are up - pork, chicken, eggs and so on have increased dramatically. hence, prices are up here. if the baht falls, things will look brighter for exports. we have one of the best covid management results in the world. of course tourists will return - just need to get that darn baht lower. I just read that Nissan is moving an assembly plant here. glass half full, gents. who knows, if the baht does go down, I might be able to afford a bottle of double virgin single malt ????

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

What 78% is this, only 11.5% comes from international tourism?

I thought you'd be on this thread to defend the Thai economy, how predictable.

 

Do you seriously think that only international tourism is dependent on foreign sources?

 

 

What happens when demand for these goods and services falls off the cliff?

 

Oh look, this is what happens.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

 

At least domestically Thais are all cashed up and spending loads of money. Oh, wait a minute...

 

The Thai economy is in freefall.

[Trillian]

5 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

I thought you'd be on this thread to defend the Thai economy, how predictable.

 

Do you seriously think that only international tourism is dependent on foreign sources?

 

 

What happens when demand for these goods and services falls off the cliff?

 

Oh look, this is what happens.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

 

At least domestically Thais are all cashed up and spending loads of money. Oh, wait a minute...

 

The Thai economy is in freefall.

As said previously, some exports, parts of some exports, use supply chain components that come from overseas.

 

But part of the bigger answer is in what you wrote, a 22.5% fall to the smallest exports since 2016. That means that exports increased by 22.5% in under four years, it has always been said that a rate of rapid growth such as that was never going to be sustainable, even without the virus! The question that now has to be asked is whether USD 16 bill. in exports per month is a big enough figure to sustain the Thai economy, most people with any knowledge on the subject will tell you that yes it is.

 

And whilst that 6X.X% figure for exports is correct, it does contain the 11.5%  that is international tourism which is also an export.

 

Finally, as exports fall so do imports but not by the same amount. That creates a scenario where the trade surplus might just become a trade deficit which would result in no new contributions to the Foreign Currency Reserves and might just help weaken THB, a move that will help exports. Get the picture now?

 

 

[Bkkthebest]

Economic team resigning while the country is in for a recession??? Their heart is not with the country at all.

[Huckenfell]

5 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

We dont have "mob unrest" in Thailand , thats a Western thing 

You have already forgotten the REDSHIRT protests a short few years ago then ?

 

[phantomfiddler]

Totally incompetent, the whole lot of them. Thailand is much better off without them, and should thank them for retiring since it would appear even the members know they are useless ????

A team is needed who do NOT have their heads up in the clouds, in the sand, or up in that other place where the sun never shines. A new team is needed, who have some compassion for the common working man, and have enough sense not to deprive millions of workers from the opportunity to work for their families.

 

[chaihot]

13 hours ago, 86Tiger said:

No body wants to be left holding the bag.  It will not be pretty when all is said and done.

Do you really think people this high up in the food chain actually care?   ????

[5633572526]

14 hours ago, Mavideol said:

heads are starting to roll.... more to come, Prayut's next????

One can only hope

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:

Totally incompetent, the whole lot of them. Thailand is much better off without them, and should thank them for retiring since it would appear even the members know they are useless ????

A team is needed who do NOT have their heads up in the clouds, in the sand, or up in that other place where the sun never shines. A new team is needed, who have some compassion for the common working man, and have enough sense not to deprive millions of workers from the opportunity to work for their families.

 

Ah yes, more support for the rural poor and the impoverished. 

[JonnyF]

17 minutes ago, Trillian said:

As said previously, some exports, parts of some exports, use supply chain components that come from overseas.

 

But part of the bigger answer is in what you wrote, a 22.5% fall to the smallest exports since 2016. That means that exports increased by 22.5% in under four years, it has always been said that a rate of rapid growth such as that was never going to be sustainable, even without the virus! The question that now has to be asked is whether USD 16 bill. in exports per month is a big enough figure to sustain the Thai economy, most people with any knowledge on the subject will tell you that yes it is.

 

And whilst that 6X.X% figure for exports is correct, it does contain the 11.5%  that is international tourism which is also an export.

 

Finally, as exports fall so do imports but not by the same amount. That creates a scenario where the trade surplus might just become a trade deficit which would result in no new contributions to the Foreign Currency Reserves and might just help weaken THB, a move that will help exports. Get the picture now?

 

 

So it's OK to lose the last 4 years growth overnight? Mmmm OK....

 

So let's say 22% of 67%. That's 15%

Lets say 50% of your 8% domestic tourism, that's 4%

 

That's 19% gone just there before you consider other domestic contraction due to everything being closed for 6 months.

 

So like I said, forget about an 8% drop. 20% will be more realistic, likely more. But no doubt you'll say that's nothing to worry about, because that's your job.

[5633572526]

10 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

So what if they resign. The economic policy is set by career finance department officials and despite all the self appointed experts here, Thailand has been following an economic strategy  common to other countries including Australia, Canada, the EU, japan, South Korea, the EU etc. 

Thailand is not on the verge of collapse and its economic condition is no worse than anywhere else because of Covid19. It is sitting on massive reserves and has important commodities for export that the world needs. Stop pushing scenarios of doom and gloom. Thailand is still in relatively good shape for the rest of the year.

 

 

LOL. Now is not the time to purchase a condo unless one needs immediate housing for a family. The market has not yet  undergone a  real adjustment. IMO it will be a buyers market in 3-6 months. Interest rates are low so  debt service is still manageable for many. Those in trouble will have been in trouble prior to Covid19 and most likely will have liens attached to their property and will not have maintained the  property. That type of property is best avoided.

 

 

 

 

Government borrowed a trillion baht to provide stimulus. Why do that if you are sitting on piles of money??

[miamiman123]

Too little too late 

[Mr Meeseeks]

6 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

We dont have "mob unrest" in Thailand , thats a Western thing 

You slept through 1991/2, 2006, 2008 and 2010 then?

[smedly]

13 hours ago, 86Tiger said:

No body wants to be left holding the bag.  It will not be pretty when all is said and done.

exactly 

 

as I said a few days ago ..................... something big is about to happen and it won't be pretty 

 

someone got their zero's wrong and messed up - millions billions and trillions - it's all about the zero's but hugely different 

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

were resigning, as Southeast Asia's worst-performing economy struggles with the fallout from the coronavirus crisis.

Wow, in less than one year going from the best to the worst.... or so we were told !

rats are jumping ship HMS Thailand is sinking... fast!