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Confusion amid reports Thailand's top economic team to resign


snoop1130

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6 minutes ago, Ironman1958 said:

Isn't Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana the same guy who was in charge of the Thai economy way-back-when and crashed it, then Thailand had to go to the IMF for a bailout?

No, Tarrin was: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/It-was-20-years-ago-that-the-Thai-central-bank-panicked

 

Uttama was Minister for IT and before that Dean of a University

https://www.set.or.th/thailandfocus/2019/speakers.html

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3 hours ago, mrfill said:

The bubonic plague is a virus. First seen in Europe in 1348. Last seen in a squirrel in Colorado in June 2020.

 

It could be a very long wait....

.....and in humans in China in July 2020.

 

BBC News - China bubonic plague: WHO 'monitoring' case but says it is 'not high risk'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53325988

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3 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

One think I can never seem to find out.

The Thai government raised a lot of cash by selling bonds.

Who bought them?

The BOT have bought some, but the majority is bought by local, probably institutional investors like pension funds.

Thais as a group are not broke, there are about 12 trillion baht in bank deposits, so plenty of baht in the system.

 

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) announced on Thursday that they have bought 100 billion baht worth of Thai government bonds between March 13 and March 19 to stabilize the bond market.  

https://www.thaienquirer.com/9790/bank-of-thailand-shoring-up-bond-market-with-cash-injection/

 

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7 hours ago, Trillian said:

Sure, nobody is saying there won't be falls in GDP or its components, the only difference between us is how much and how those falls are calculated. As said earlier your tourism slump of 20% isn't really 20% yet although it might be later, we don't know, today it's 3 months of 11.5% which is international tourism, what it might be later is another story that I wouldn't want to guess at.

International tourism is about 12% of GDP. As things stand now, there won't any substantial  international arrivals for the rest of the year. 9 months down the drain. Domestic tourism won't make up for it and there was none for 3 months (unless you count trips to see family in the villages). So the country will lose about 15% of GDP in tourism alone

How much damage will be done to foreign investment in Thailand when it is nearly impossible to enter?  

If there is another 10% loss due to decreased domestic consumption, we are at a 25% contraction of the economy in 1 year... that is a depression and not a minor correction (imagine a pay cut of 25% for your household).

It will take years to recover from this - or living standards decline as population doesn't shrink

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37 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

International tourism is about 12% of GDP. As things stand now, there won't any substantial  international arrivals for the rest of the year. 9 months down the drain. Domestic tourism won't make up for it and there was none for 3 months (unless you count trips to see family in the villages). So the country will lose about 15% of GDP in tourism alone

How much damage will be done to foreign investment in Thailand when it is nearly impossible to enter?  

If there is another 10% loss due to decreased domestic consumption, we are at a 25% contraction of the economy in 1 year... that is a depression and not a minor correction (imagine a pay cut of 25% for your household).

It will take years to recover from this - or living standards decline as population doesn't shrink

International Tourism - 3 months good, 3 months down the drain, 6 months unknown.

Domestic Tourism - 3 months good, 3 months unsure, 6 months unknown.

Sorry, that's the closest I can get with any certainty, my crystal ball is broken!

 

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On 7/15/2020 at 6:10 PM, snoop1130 said:

Thailand's Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana and economic policy guru and Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak are planning to resign their posts, local media reported on Wednesday.

So rumours are news. So typical. It may be true, but this is too much like "the Sky is falling".

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18 hours ago, webfact said:

Southeast Asia's worst-performing economy is struggling to recover from the impact of COVID-19 crisis.

Prayut & Co legacy .... 6 years to destroy everything and rob it blind.

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16 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The mighty baht sure is getting softer.

 

Screenshot_20200716-104822_Currency Exchange Rates.jpg

This is not conclusive by any means but it may help explain the chart above.....the BOT Exchange Rate Report shows that REER is holding up quite well but nominal value has been falling.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=407&language=eng

Edited by Trillian
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Regarding forecasts, this is what BOT forecast in April so you can see what they said then versus what really happened

 

Two points of interest include a forecast of 15 mill. tourists in 2020 (the first three months of the year saw 7 mill.) and a fall in exports of 8.8% FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR (exports have fallen 3.71% in the first five months of this year):

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/PressandSpeeches/Press/2020/Pages/n2163.aspx

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

 

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15 hours ago, Trillian said:

International Tourism - 3 months good, 3 months down the drain, 6 months unknown.

Domestic Tourism - 3 months good, 3 months unsure, 6 months unknown.

Sorry, that's the closest I can get with any certainty, my crystal ball is broken!

 

Your otherwise clear crystal ball is getting a bit hazy. European borders stared closing March 13th and China had already banned international group tours. As a result arrivals in Thailand were down by 75% in March 2020, so:

 

International Tourism - 2 1/2 months good, 4 months down the drain, 5 1/2 months looking bleak.

 

March 2020: 898,485 tourist arrivals (down 75.1% from 2019)

By number the biggest arrivals are (Change from March 2019):

 

Laos: 152,379 down 34.0%

Russia: 118,583 down 39.3%

Malaysia: 98,575 down 73.6%

China: 55,047 down 94.4%

Germany: 48,774 down 53.6%

Cambodia: 42,208 down 59.1%

UK: 42,100 down 53.4%

France: 39,385 down 49.5%

Japan: 22,468 down 84.0%

Vietnam: 23,683 down 73.8%

USA: 23,054 down 78.8%

Australia: 18,457 down 66.9%

Sweden: 14,181 down 53.5%

Singapore: 14,145 down 83.7%

India: 12,709 down 91.9%

Indonesia: 11,005 down 82.3%

Myanmar: 10,484 down 71.0%

HK: 9,953 down 86.8%

Philippines: 9,792 down 73.7%

Finland: 9,422 down 40.1%

Holland: 9,003 down 47.3%

Denmark: 8,536 down 50.5%

South Korea: 8,019 down 94.7%

Canada: 7,567 down 74.2%

Poland: 6,178 down 57.7%

Norway: 5,035 down 53.4%

 

 

March Arrivals.xlsx

Edited by ExpatOilWorker
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1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Your otherwise clear crystal ball is getting a bit hazy. European borders stared closing March 13th and China had already banned international group tours. As a result arrivals in Thailand were down by 75% in March 2020, so:

 

International Tourism - 2 1/2 months good, 4 months down the drain, 5 1/2 months looking bleak.

 

March 2020: 898,485 tourist arrivals (down 75.1% from 2019)

By number the biggest arrivals are (Change from March 2019):

 

Laos: 152,379 down 34.0%

Russia: 118,583 down 39.3%

Malaysia: 98,575 down 73.6%

China: 55,047 down 94.4%

Germany: 48,774 down 53.6%

Cambodia: 42,208 down 59.1%

UK: 42,100 down 53.4%

France: 39,385 down 49.5%

Japan: 22,468 down 84.0%

Vietnam: 23,683 down 73.8%

USA: 23,054 down 78.8%

Australia: 18,457 down 66.9%

Sweden: 14,181 down 53.5%

Singapore: 14,145 down 83.7%

India: 12,709 down 91.9%

Indonesia: 11,005 down 82.3%

Myanmar: 10,484 down 71.0%

HK: 9,953 down 86.8%

Philippines: 9,792 down 73.7%

Finland: 9,422 down 40.1%

Holland: 9,003 down 47.3%

Denmark: 8,536 down 50.5%

South Korea: 8,019 down 94.7%

Canada: 7,567 down 74.2%

Poland: 6,178 down 57.7%

Norway: 5,035 down 53.4%

 

 

March Arrivals.xlsx 158.34 kB · 0 downloads

Yes, fair enough, I wasn't as precise as I should have been. But it still looks like almost 7 mill. int. tourists during the first three months, that's nearly half the BOT estimate for the year of 15 mill. What do you think, will they make the target or not?

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1 hour ago, Trillian said:

Yes, fair enough, I wasn't as precise as I should have been. But it still looks like almost 7 mill. int. tourists during the first three months, that's nearly half the BOT estimate for the year of 15 mill. What do you think, will they make the target or not?

Even the all optimistic TAT gave up on the 15 million target long ago, now they are hoping for 8.2 million.

Only 6.7 million entered the kingdom during the first 3 months, as it stands now it will be a cliffhanger if we make it to 7 million by December.

Edited by ExpatOilWorker
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On 7/15/2020 at 1:21 PM, LomSak27 said:

 

I was setting things up to reload my BK Account back to 800K, prepping for visa renewal. This little bit of news makes me feel all flipping warm and fuzzy ????   What is worse, it is not really a surprise.

 

@LomSak27 why u on here telling everyone on here how much money ya got.gloating by any chance. impressing no one

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13 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Even the all optimistic TAT gave up on the 15 million target long ago, now they are hoping for 8.2 million.

Only 6.7 million entered the kingdom during the first 3 months, as it stands now it will be a cliffhanger if we make it to 7 million by December.

If that's correct:

 

GDP = US 535 bill., x 11.5% that is Int. Tourism, = USD 61 bill

8 million tourists is 20% of prior year total (40 mill.) or USD 12 bill.

They would be giving up USD 49 bill or 9% of GDP on international tourism alone.

That doesn't include domestic tourism or exports, one of which would have to surge to meet the -8.1% forecast for Y/E GDP.

 

 

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1 hour ago, paulikens said:
On 7/15/2020 at 7:21 PM, LomSak27 said:

 

I was setting things up to reload my BK Account back to 800K, prepping for visa renewal. This little bit of news makes me feel all flipping warm and fuzzy ????   What is worse, it is not really a surprise.

 

@LomSak27 why u on here telling everyone on here how much money ya got.gloating by any chance. impressing no one

I may not have lots of money, but I am selfish about what I do have. As having 800k in a thai bank account for 5 months, 400K for 7 is a requirement of the Government of Thailand for a  1 year, non 0 visa, for many nationalities. I am forced to have the money in the account, I have no choice in the matter. And of course I am worried about economic stability of Thailand because they have me by the short ... uh ... baht, so to speak.

 

I have no clue what you are on about paulikens. Perhaps educate yourself about current visa and financial requirements for long term stay might be a good place to start.

 

Edited by LomSak27
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52 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

I may not have lots of money, but I am selfish about what I do have. As having 800k in a thai bank account for 5 months, 400K for 7 is a requirement of the Government of Thailand for a  1 year, non 0 visa, for many nationalities. I am forced to have the money in the account, I have no choice in the matter. And of course I am worried about economic stability of Thailand because they have me by the short ... uh ... baht, so to speak.

 

I have no clue what you are on about paulikens. Perhaps educate yourself about current visa and financial requirements for long term stay might be a good place to start.

 

@LomSak27 i know all about what you have to for a visa and probably most people on here do,i just dont know why you had to announce it on here like some sort of show off. i dont care how much u have in ya bank and no one else will, as you say you are selfish about what money you have, which is quite right as you should be because your finances are your business and no one else's so keep it to yourself.

Edited by paulikens
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2 hours ago, paulikens said:

LomSak27 i know all about what you have to for a visa and probably most people on here do,i just dont know why you had to announce it on here like some sort of show off. i dont care how much u have in ya bank and no one else will, as you say you are selfish about what money you have, which is quite right as you should be because your finances are your business and no one else's so keep it to yourself.

Good thing you got that off your chest. Now who cares what you think. :thumbsup:

 

Cheers

 

Edited by LomSak27
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13 hours ago, Trillian said:

If that's correct:

 

GDP = US 535 bill., x 11.5% that is Int. Tourism, = USD 61 bill

8 million tourists is 20% of prior year total (40 mill.) or USD 12 bill.

They would be giving up USD 49 bill or 9% of GDP on international tourism alone.

That doesn't include domestic tourism or exports, one of which would have to surge to meet the -8.1% forecast for Y/E GDP.

 

 

I thought I'd give this 24 hours to see if anyone picked up on it by they haven't:

 

Government borrowed THB 1.9 trillion or about USD 60 bill. as part of the covid19 bailout program which is about 11% of GDP. Government spending is also a component of GDP but we don't know how much of that money was actually spent, only how much was borrowed. Theoretically, it's easily possible for International tourism to come in at -10% and for GDP not to fall at all.

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34 minutes ago, Trillian said:

I thought I'd give this 24 hours to see if anyone picked up on it by they haven't:

 

Government borrowed THB 1.9 trillion or about USD 60 bill. as part of the covid19 bailout program which is about 11% of GDP. Government spending is also a component of GDP but we don't know how much of that money was actually spent, only how much was borrowed. Theoretically, it's easily possible for International tourism to come in at -10% and for GDP not to fall at all.

Just to add, the theoretical GDP picture I set out above would mean a debt to GDP ratio of 53%, even in a normal environment most governments would kill to have the similar numbers, in a post covid19 environment they are almost unimaginable for most countries.

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19 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Just to add, the theoretical GDP picture I set out above would mean a debt to GDP ratio of 53%, even in a normal environment most governments would kill to have the similar numbers, in a post covid19 environment they are almost unimaginable for most countries.

How do you service public debt?

By tax revenue of course.

Unlike some nanny states where tax revenue is 50% of GDP, in a good year Thailand only collect about 15% of GDP.

So yes, most governments would already be dead if they had Thailand's revenue department, but at the moment it is Thailand's private sector that is being killed.

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27 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

How do you service public debt?

By tax revenue of course.

Unlike some nanny states where tax revenue is 50% of GDP, in a good year Thailand only collect about 15% of GDP.

So yes, most governments would already be dead if they had Thailand's revenue department, but at the moment it is Thailand's private sector that is being killed.

Trim the budget and/or operate a bigger budget deficit, that debt was issued at super low interest rates and of course the BOT portion was even lower yet. And promissory notes don't have to make coupon payments, the interest is due with repayment. All in all the cost of servicing that 1.9 trill. will be quite low and I guess easily manageable, if nothing else that buys time.

 

Your point about 15% of GDP is well taken, expect a surge of people being caught in the tax net very soon.

 

Private Sector: my jury is still out on this, we need some more data on exports and consumer spending.

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