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Jingthing

Evidence now suggests herd immunity likely impossible without a vaccine

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Posted (edited)

We've all heard the herd immunity advocates and theories from the very beginning of this pandemic.

 

Some of the rhetoric about that was rational enough but a lot of was extremely creepy and cold hearted. People would say things like who cares it's only old people that were about to die anyway which besides being offensive was never actually true. Cull the herd as if humans are lifestock. No thank you. 

 

Also there has been a massive amount of rhetoric suggesting it's a clean binary choice between controlling the virus and saving the economy when the truth is obviously that you save the economy by controlling the virus. No shortcuts.

 

But be that as it may, as we now know much more about the virus and the dominant strain may be 10 times more infectious than the original, the arguments for "natural" herd immunity (without a vaccine) were legit enough to be considered (such as in the failed experiment in Sweden).

 

But all that may soon be over!

 

The idea of natural herd immunity presumes that getting infected and recovering means you are  now immune to a good degree and for a long period of time.

 

For numerous other infectious agents, that is indeed the case.

 

But for this one  -- evidence is now suggesting that is NOT the case.

 

This is a really big deal if true.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/13/opinions/herd-immunity-covid-19-uncomfortable-reality-haseltine/index.html

 

Quote

We're wasting time talking about herd immunity

 

 

So if true, people can just give up the natural herd immunity dream (or nightmare) and focus on what will work for this virus.

 

All the things we have been doing and getting the vaccine out ASAP and enough people actually being willing to take the vaccine.

 

 

Edited by Jingthing
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1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

So if true

Very  telling.

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1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

So if true, people can just give up the natural herd immunity dream (or nightmare) and focus on what will work for this virus.

Does the OP understand what a vaccine is?

A vaccine is a weak or impotent version of a disease, which when introduced into the body stimulates the body to activate it's defenses ie it is THE DISEASE.

 

If this virus can't create natural defenses we are screwed anyway, so might just as well find a friend for the end of the world ( as we know it ).

It's not a case of economies being destroyed in the future- they already are. 1929, here we go again.

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1 hour ago, ukrules said:

Don't despair, there's one thing missing from this article that's also missing from every other article that's been doing the rounds lately - all on the same subject.

 

There's no mention of B cells whatsoever. It's almost like the journalists don't know what they are, either that or they're choosing to ignore it completely as it makes for a better headline and more clicks.

 

They're all equating a lack of or a reducing count / titer of antibodies with reduced or ineffective immunity.

 

How do you think a vaccine works? It creates B cells which then create antibodies


B cells are a part of the memory of the immune system and they can last for decades.

 

So what they're saying could be partly true regarding future infections, SARS-COV-2 could be the 'fifth cold' coming from a Coronavirus, the rest (100's of them) being rhinoviruses.

 

My theory is that something similar happened when the other 4 'corona colds' emerged, which could have been 100's or even 1000's of years ago.

 

We now contract these other colds as infants and build a measure of immunity to them over a lifetime. These days hardly anyone dies from a cold unless there's something wrong with their immune system, they're mostly an annoyance.

 

If you breathe it in you will become infected even if you're 'immune' (just like a cold) but due to the immune response you may not even notice it, this depends on whether you've been exposed to it before. That immune response doesn't need a high level of antibodies, these can be created quickly if the B cells already exist.

 

Vaccination is herd immunity and it's using the same mechanism minus the T cells as immunity gained from infection.

 

This likely doesn't mean you can't get it again like a regular cold but it shouldn't be as bad.

 

That's the way I see it. Also, watch out for news headlines in the next couple of months saying antibody levels are falling in those who are vaccinated because that's likely to happen.

 

Antibodies aren't everything though.

 

Worth a read : https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/how-do-we-know-who-immune-covid-19

100% agree with this well written and informative post. 

 

One point to add is the potential for antigenic drift of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, whether or not there even is any drift, but if so, is the Vaccine built from and targeting the virus before its evolved, would it still be effective?

 

Then there is also how effective a vaccine is (influenza is reported as being 40-60% effective) 

Thus, IF the vaccine is only 60% effective and the the CFR of Covid-19 is 1% The vaccine could be saving 6 out of 1000 people who contract Covid-19 .

The 99% (possible CFR figures) who contacts Covid-19 don’t all get an easy ride - its estimated 85% have no or very weak symptoms and the rest have severe symptoms with 4% requiring a respirators.

 

With those numbers [CFR 1% / Vaccine 60% Effective / 15% of Covid-19 cases are serious)

 

The vaccine would be result in approximately 96 people out of 1000 who would be saved from severe impact or dieing.

 

All Estimated numbers of course, but it tells us the importance of the vaccine and that its not just saving lives but preventing people from becoming extremely ill. 

 

 

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With all the contradictory news going around, much of which is highly politicised, I wonder how much basis there is on there being no immunity?

 

The immunity question is so important, I’m wondering how we have not found out with any degree of certainty already. 

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7 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I’m wondering how we have not found out with any degree of certainty already. 

my sad and unprofessional thought on that, is that the more the virus spreads, the more chance it has to mutate and become more sophisticated at killing us... 

 

maybe, this time, the virus wins... 

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