Evidence now suggests herd immunity likely impossible without a vaccine

[pookondee]

There seems to be a lot of "oh..but.." rhetoric with this virus, seemingly to promote maximum fear.

 

Its nearly as if a script writer has thought up negative responses for every possible aspect that might be considered a positive.

oh but.. its in your system 14 days without symptoms.
Oh but.. you might not have any symptoms at all but still be a spreader.
Oh but.. with different strains coming, we will always be fighting this.
Oh but.. for this one theres no herd immunity.

Many professionals have started to speak out about what complete nonsense some of these theories are..
especially the one about having it without any symptoms.

We will find out soon.
With the numbers they are reporting in Florida, they might truelly be on their way to herd immunity, if the trend keeps up down there.

It could flatline and recover and nearly be eradicated in that area, or...

well the other option is to scary to think about.

One would think, if there were massive numbers in China to start with, and not to many problems now, then there must be some factor of herd immunity in play.

As for this 2nd wave rubbish.
The MSN like to claim "outreaks" and
"2nd wave" when just a handful of people get corona common cold symptoms.

This goes way beyond just the theory of "bad news sells".
There seems to be something more behind it.

I really cant understand why we have to be bombarded with this worst case scenario stuff 24x7,

when most of times a lot of what they are telling us is complete BS 

[checkered flag]

37 minutes ago, J Town said:

You wouldn't know that with all the medical armchair quarterbacking around the US.

Very true. Listening to the pundits (at least some of them) on TVF is dangerous to maintaining brain cell function. It's like a neurotoxin that poison your brain cells.  

[simple1]

1 hour ago, checkered flag said:

This doesn't make sense. One therapy that works is transfusing patients with Covid serum from recovered patients. Therefore recovered patients have some immunity. Currently we don't know how long the immunity last but it's real. 

People without scientific or medical knowledge simply don't know. 

Have to wait and see timeline of immunity provided by authorised vaccine/s, if it's similar to flu vaccine of one year or shorter policy and logistics would be easily implemented for those most at risk. I'm aware via media of the Covid serum method, but no idea if transfusing patients with Covid serum is a viable solution to roll out across millions / tens of millions in a country in a timely manner.

Edited July 16, 2020 by simple1

[Krataiboy]

12 hours ago, ezzra said:

I think Sweden took the punt on herd immunity and lost big time with 76,500 infected and 5,572 dead for a nation of 10 millions... anyone else want to try?...

Sweden has fessed up to doing to little to protect its most vulnerable elderly. One only wishes Boris Johnson had the guts to do the same.

 

But even without lockdowns (out of a healthy respect for civil rights which other nations have failed to display) Sweden has achieved a comparatively lower mortality rate than the UK - without the catastrophic economic and social consequences.

 

Over half the fatalities attributed to to the UK's deliberately inflated COVID 19 figure are care home residents or locked-down sick people unwilling to access vital hospital treatment for life-threatening conditions.

 

Subtract these two groups from the UK total and the "deadly pandemic" looks more like a  modest coronavirus outbreak - one which caught us unawares after the most innocuous winter flu season for years.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr30K_x-RsQ&t=9s

(The relevant analysis starts at the 24 minute mark)

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8Eu5W4pqvc&t=208s

Edited July 16, 2020 by Krataiboy

[cmarshall]

5 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Again a misleading statement. The influenza virus of this year is not coming back next season, but a changed version. The influenza virus is, very different to the common corona viruses, mutating heavily and thus presents itself to the immune system differently every season, it’s like being a different virus. The influenza vaccination tries to guess the coming mutations, based on the last one, with more ore less success each year.

Which is why Sars-Cov-2 is probably more dangerous than flu. 

 

The flu virus must mutate, because those infected with the flu virus from the previous year still have immunity to that variant of the flu virus.  By contrast those who have been infected by the common coronaviruses can get reinfected by the same virus again a year later or even a few months later.  This is a characteristic of all well-understood coronaviruses.  The flu virus does produce herd immunity, but only to the original variant.  The coronaviruses do not produce herd immunity.  It has not yet been established whether Sars-Cov-2 similarly provides only short-lived immunity, but it is likely.

[GroveHillWanderer]

13 hours ago, farang51 said:

If it is not possible to achieve natural herd immunity, then it is not possible to achieve herd immunity with a vaccine; unless people get vaccinated every few months. I certainly hope, he is wrong.

This is absolutely untrue. Vaccines can and do stimulate much stronger, more effective and longer lasting levels of immunity than are gained by exposure to the disease itself. In fact, that's always the goal when developing a vaccine. It isn't always achievable but it quite often is.

 

Just to take one example from the currently ongoing CoVid-19 vaccine developments, one of the candidate vaccines (the one being developed by Pfizer) had been shown in phase 2 clinical trials on humans, to produce up to 46 times the level of antibodies found in convalescent plasma (depending on dosage). So basically that means a vaccinated person could produce 46 times more antibodies than a person who was simply infected with the disease itself. Results of the trials also show that the vaccine induces potent T cell activity, a part of the immune response that typically outlasts antibody production.

 

To say that if you can't get long-lasting, effective immunity from natural infection with a disease, then you can't get it from a vaccine, indicates a basic misconception about how vaccines work, and is just plain wrong.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o6lzRYd9awI#

Edited July 16, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[simple1]

16 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Again a misleading statement. The influenza virus of this year is not coming back next season, but a changed version. The influenza virus is, very different to the common corona viruses, mutating heavily and thus presents itself to the immune system differently every season, it’s like being a different virus. The influenza vaccination tries to guess the coming mutations, based on the last one, with more ore less success each year.

Guess what, the people developing Covid vaccine/s have more info than you and will take into consideration all the challenges.

 

"The influenza vaccination tries to guess the coming mutations"

 

Tries to guess?

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5861780/

[yuyiinthesky]

4 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

The coronaviruses do not produce herd immunity.

Really? Source?

[yuyiinthesky]

8 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Guess what, the people developing Covid vaccine/s have more info than you and will take into consideration all the challenges.

I really hope so, it would be even more scary if they would release new gene altering vaccines having not more information available as I do.

 

8 minutes ago, simple1 said:

"The influenza vaccination tries to guess the coming mutations"

 

Tries to guess?

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5861780/

Yes, thanks for the link, explaining in more scientific terms exactly what I said. Here the abstract from your link:

 

Quote

Influenza vaccine composition is reviewed before every flu season because influenza viruses constantly evolve through antigenic changes. To inform vaccine updates, laboratories that contribute to the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System monitor the antigenic phenotypes of circulating viruses all year round. Vaccine strains are selected in anticipation of the upcoming influenza season to allow adequate time for production. A mismatch between vaccine strains and predominant strains in the flu season can significantly reduce vaccine effectiveness. Models for predicting the evolution of influenza based on the relationship of genetic mutations and antigenic characteristics of circulating viruses may inform vaccine strain selection decisions. We review the literature on state-of-the-art tools and prediction methodologies utilized in modeling the evolution of influenza to inform vaccine strain selection. We then discuss areas that are open for improvement and need further research.

As they say, the predictions are sometimes quite good and sometimes not so good. Wasn’t it last season just about 10% effectiveness?

Edited July 16, 2020 by yuyiinthesky

[IAMHERE]

12 hours ago, ezzra said:

I think Sweden took the punt on herd immunity and lost big time with 76,500 infected and 5,572 dead for a nation of 10 millions... anyone else want to try?...

Those are not bad numbers and their economy wasn't shut down either.  Let's see how they do with the second, third, and fourth waves before making a decision on their method of dealing with Covid-19

[Sambotte]

Total BS...

 

Immune system is everything in human body.

We would not be there otherwise ! Millions years to prove it.

Medecine does not know much about how it works, they even admit it (but not much the medias)

And if there was no steady immune response how a vaccine could work better anyway ?

Looks like some want to SELL the vaccine. Big money. Or who knows : worse ?

No way i will get this vaccine personally.

 

Looks bad those "news" and insane debates. Either we go for "permanent fear and control" because of the "new enemy" : the virus (permanent war, again and again, exceptionnal but permanent mesures of control, fear and more media-fear...) ; either people wake up and we have basic "normality" again...

[GroveHillWanderer]

44 minutes ago, Monomial said:

If this is actually true - that herd immunity is impossible - then it becomes even more critical we stop all this ridiculous lockdown nonsense and border closures and get on with the normal processes of living.

 

The current situation is untennable as a permanent lifestyle.  We just have to accept the virus as a risk the same way we accept car accidents as a risk.  Let the medical community concentrate on treatment options just as they did with HIV, and let everyone else concentrate on getting back to living their lives and letting the human race adapt to the new conditions.

 

This is not an extinction level event. It's time to put this behind us. A virus that resists immunity also can't be eradicated. Best we stop trying now. We need to evolve to overcome its effects.

 

Let's be clear what these different scientists are saying here. They are saying that herd immunity - by the natural infection route - may be impossible. They are not saying that it's impossible under any circumstances. An effective vaccine can still provide herd immunity.

Edited July 16, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[simple1]

12 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

I really hope so, it would be even more scary if they would release new gene altering vaccines having not more information available as I do.

 

Yes, thanks for the link, explaining in more scientific terms exactly what I said. Here the abstract from your link:

 

As they say, the predictions are sometimes quite good and sometimes not so good. Wasn’t it last season just about 10% effectiveness?

if I recall correctly flu vaccine averages 60% effectiveness. As I'm diabetic at high risk I have an annual flu shot. As you know flu vaccine contributes to keeping known flu deaths at approx 500k p.a. worldwide, as opposed to millions without a vaccine.

[Why Me]

3 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

An effective vaccine can still provide herd immunity.

Yep, that's what all the national health orgs are waiting for. There's a currently unknown scientist in a lab coat peering down a microscope somewhere who's going to become rich and famous and handsome in a month or so.

[yuyiinthesky]

2 minutes ago, simple1 said:

if I recall correctly flu vaccine averages 60% effectiveness. As I'm diabetic at high risk I have an annual flu shot. As you know flu vaccine contributes to keeping known flu deaths at approx 500k p.a. worldwide, as opposed to millions without a vaccine.

If you had the impression that I want to take away your influenza vaccine, then calm down, I don’t.

 

Nevertheless I recall that last year’s vaccine had a quite low effectiveness, I think around 10%.

 

But by all means, that is not to say you should not get it, not at all.

[GroveHillWanderer]

12 minutes ago, Sambotte said:

Looks like some want to SELL the vaccine. Big money. Or who knows : worse ?

All the major vaccine development groups have committed to making any eventual vaccine that they might come up with, available on a non-profit basis. This is also a pre-requisite for any vaccine development effort receiving funding from either the Gates Foundation or the Global Vaccine Alliance - and a large proportion of the vaccine groups have accepted funding from these two organisations.

Edited July 16, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[yuyiinthesky]

3 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

All the major vaccine development groups have committed to making any eventual vaccine that they might come up with, available on a non-profit basis. This is also a pre-requisite for any vaccine development effort receiving funding from either the Gates Foundation or the Global Vaccine Alliance - and a large proportion of the vaccine groups have accepted funding from these two organisations.

Easy to do, shift some billions from country A to country B, Bill’s Microsoft can teach them a lesson on how to reduce profits on paper (there to avoid paying taxes).

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, rumak said:

There is certain to be a movie opportunity here.   Female applicants can apply for the highly sought

after starring role in  Mad Maxine.....   The villain has already been chosen .  Hint ..... think Bill

I am waiting for the 400 hour movie of the inside story of the last 3-4 years... including back-story of Epstein and all the drama going on... just hope I live long enough [or maybe not]

[CGW]

14 hours ago, farang51 said:

If it is not possible to achieve natural herd immunity, then it is not possible to achieve herd immunity with a vaccine; unless people get vaccinated every few months. I certainly hope, he is wrong.

He's not alone! https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/merck-ceo-frazier-says-covid-19-vaccine-hype-a-grave-disservice-to-public

If the MSM stopped the scaremongering and "governments stopped there desired transition into a PRC/CCP-style surveillance and control society we could get on with our lives, probably too late already for us to regain the freedom we once enjoyed!

[rumak]

Just now, kenk24 said:

I am waiting for the 400 hour movie of the inside story of the last 3-4 years... including back-story of Epstein and all the drama going on... just hope I live long enough [or maybe not]

I'm with you !   I would love to know what really goes on in this crazy world.  Once in a blue moon some

thought provoking movie makes the mainstream,  maybe something like V is for Vendetta........... or of

course Wag the Dog ,  which might be the closest thing to reality !!  We just sit here , afraid to take

our masks off,  and blindly follow the absurd proclamations sent via some 4G or whatever G we are told is the new greatest thing ,  and pig out on the wonderful processed foods and thoughts that are

so easily at our fingertips.    

Epstein, Gates, Clinton,  or just pick your billionaire.  What the heck is really going on ?  Surely life for them can not just be sitting down with the family to a nice home cooked meal with veggies from the garden.

Somehow the words power, ego, control, more more more more keep bearing down on me.

You know,  the older i get........ the more those silly words from the past have meaning for me:

Love and Peace .     

 

 

 

 

[rosst]

14 hours ago, ukrules said:

Don't despair, there's one thing missing from this article that's also missing from every other article that's been doing the rounds lately - all on the same subject.

 

There's no mention of B cells whatsoever. It's almost like the journalists don't know what they are, either that or they're choosing to ignore it completely as it makes for a better headline and more clicks.

 

They're all equating a lack of or a reducing count / titer of antibodies with reduced or ineffective immunity.

 

How do you think a vaccine works? It creates B cells which then create antibodies

B cells are a part of the memory of the immune system and they can last for decades.

 

So what they're saying could be partly true regarding future infections, SARS-COV-2 could be the 'fifth cold' coming from a Coronavirus, the rest (100's of them) being rhinoviruses.

 

My theory is that something similar happened when the other 4 'corona colds' emerged, which could have been 100's or even 1000's of years ago.

 

We now contract these other colds as infants and build a measure of immunity to them over a lifetime. These days hardly anyone dies from a cold unless there's something wrong with their immune system, they're mostly an annoyance.

 

If you breathe it in you will become infected even if you're 'immune' (just like a cold) but due to the immune response you may not even notice it, this depends on whether you've been exposed to it before. That immune response doesn't need a high level of antibodies, these can be created quickly if the B cells already exist.

 

Vaccination is herd immunity and it's using the same mechanism minus the T cells as immunity gained from infection.

 

This likely doesn't mean you can't get it again like a regular cold but it shouldn't be as bad.

 

That's the way I see it. Also, watch out for news headlines in the next couple of months saying antibody levels are falling in those who are vaccinated because that's likely to happen.

 

Antibodies aren't everything though.

 

Worth a read : https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/how-do-we-know-who-immune-covid-19

An informed and intilligent response, I agree 

[Skeptic7]

@JingthingOn average, the seasonal "flu" kills off around half-a-MILLION (500,000) of the "herd" every year since...ever. Even with the "flu shot". The world carries on. It always has and always will. If what you say is true, then ultimately nature will cull the herd. Much as humans like to think we are "special"...the absolute truth is we are just Primates. Mammals in Kinddom: Animalia. 

 

The good news is many of our Primate brethren are REALLY smart and we have advanced amazingly as a species. Many biotech and pharma companies are having excellent results with vaccine progress. The from American Biotech Moderna:  

Full interview: https://www.jpost.com/health-science/modernas-chief-scientist-responds-is-a-vaccine-on-its-way-635255

 

How far have you managed to progress? All 45 test subjects developed antibodies against the virus, correct?

 

This is true. They haven’t just developed antibodies, these antibodies can effectively fight the virus. When we are examining the results, we are looking at two things: the first, whether or not there are antibodies that can attach themselves to the virus, the second, can these antibodies neutralize the virus’ ability to infect other cells. 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Skeptic7

[checkered flag]

9 minutes ago, Skeptic7 said:

On average, the seasonal "flu" kills off around half-a-MILLION (500,000) of the "herd" every year since...ever. Even with the "flu shot". The world carries on. It always has and always will. If what you say is true, then ultimately nature will cull the herd. Much as humans like to think we are "special"...the absolute truth is we are just Primates. Mammals in Kinddom: Animalia. 

 

The good news is many of our Primate brethren are REALLY smart and we have advanced amazingly as a species. Many biotech and pharma companies are having excellent results with vaccine progress. The from American Biotech Moderna:  

Full interview: https://www.jpost.com/health-science/modernas-chief-scientist-responds-is-a-vaccine-on-its-way-635255

 

How far have you managed to progress? All 45 test subjects developed antibodies against the virus, correct?

 

This is true. They haven’t just developed antibodies, these antibodies can effectively fight the virus. When we are examining the results, we are looking at two things: the first, whether or not there are antibodies that can attach themselves to the virus, the second, can these antibodies neutralize the virus’ ability to infect other cells. 

Finally someone who makes sense.

[farang51]

1 hour ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

15 hours ago, farang51 said:

If it is not possible to achieve natural herd immunity, then it is not possible to achieve herd immunity with a vaccine; unless people get vaccinated every few months. I certainly hope, he is wrong.

This is absolutely untrue. Vaccines can and do stimulate much stronger, more effective and longer lasting levels of immunity than are gained by exposure to the disease itself. In fact, that's always the goal when developing a vaccine. It isn't always achievable but it quite often is.

I must admit that I assumed that the immunity would be the same. I now understand that this is not always the case. The immunity from a vaccine can be better than natural immunity - although it often is weaker (like with measles or chickenpox).

Edited July 16, 2020 by farang51

[cmarshall]

1 hour ago, yuyiinthesky said:

The coronaviruses do not produce herd immunity.

 

Really? Source?  

from Dr. William Haseltine.  Haseltine was a professor at Harvard Medical School where he founded two research departments on cancer and HIV/AIDS. Haseltine is a founder of several biotechnology companies including Cambridge Biosciences, The Virus Research Institute, ProScript, LeukoSite, Dendreon, Diversa, X-VAX, and Demetrix. He was a founder chairman and CEO of Human Genome Sciences, a company that pioneered the application of genomics to drug discovery. 

 

But we waste critical time with this pointless discussion, because the facts are already quite clear: herd immunity will likely never be achieved for Covid-19 or any other coronavirus. We know this thanks to new research on the development and decline of Covid antibodies and from a wealth of epidemiological evidence on coronaviruses as a whole.

While SARS and MERS are the coronaviruses that grab the headlines, there are four other mostly unknown coronaviruses that are much more common: 229E, HKU1, NL63 and OC43. What we know from 60 years of research into these viruses is that they come back year after year and reinfect the same people — over and over again.

 

To state the obvious, the same people get infected with the same virus year after year, because there is no lasting immunity from exposure.  Therefore, there is no herd immunity.  

 

https://www.williamhaseltine.com/were-wasting-time-talking-about-herd-immunity/

[Kinnock]

10 hours ago, J Town said:

Sure, just like HIV. No one knows the long term damage done yet by Covid. The US military now has a lifetime ban on anyone joining if they contracted Covid due to all the collateral damage done to the body.

Fake news.  That ban was rescinded within days.  A panic response not based on science. 

 

Influenza can also have wider effects on the body in a tiny number of people, just like COVID, if they are going to ban entry to the armed forces for everyone who's had COVID and flu, they will have a very small army. 

[Skeptic7]

2 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Fake news.  That ban was rescinded within days.  A panic response not based on science. 

 

Influenza can also have wider effects on the body in a tiny number of people, just like COVID, if they are going to ban entry to the armed forces for everyone who's had COVID and flu, they will have a very small army. 

Spot on. While the initial "knee-jerk" overreaction was real...as you stated the all-out ban has been reversed.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/21/the-ban-on-covid-19-survivors-joining-up-has-lifted-but-some-cases-could-still-be-denied/

[J Town]

10 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Fake news.  That ban was rescinded within days.  A panic response not based on science. 

Not fake news. There was a ban, and there still is on some folks wanting to join.

 

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/21/the-ban-on-covid-19-survivors-joining-up-has-lifted-but-some-cases-could-still-be-denied/

Edited July 16, 2020 by J Town

[J Town]

1 minute ago, Skeptic7 said:

Spot on.

No. "Spot on" would be 100% accurate. This is a situation evolving every day.

[rumak]

From today's Yahoo news.   A photo of  "the herd"  

 

note:  click on the little box to left of weekly

Edited July 16, 2020 by rumak