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Expert predicts gold will hit Bt30,000 this year

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Expert predicts gold will hit Bt30,000 this year

By The Nation

 

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Experts are divided over whether gold will hit the magic price of Bt30,000 per baht weight by the end of this year, as the global price nears US$2,000 per ounce.

 

Kritrat Hiranyasiri, chairman of MTS Gold said gold prices could rise further as investors react to the US-China trade war, Covid-19 pandemic, and central banks' move to inject cash into the economic system.

 

"We expect the spot gold price to hit a new high of US$2,000 per ounce [soon]," he said.

 

"Also, we expect the SPDR Gold Trust, one of the world's largest exchange traded funds, to buy more gold because it currently holds only 1,249 tonnes – lower than its holding during the 2008-11 financial crisis of 1,320 tonnes."

 

He predicted the Thai price will hit Bt30,000 given that goldsmiths charge a Bt500 to Bt1,000 commission per baht weight and the price is currently at Bt29,550 per baht weight.

 

"Gold is considered a safe-haven asset because markets are volatile and the interest rate is low," he added.

 

However, Gold Traders Association chairman Jitti Tangsitpakdee said the price may already be at its ceiling.

 

"There is only a small chance that gold will hit Bt30,000 per baht weight, because gold funds worldwide will sell gold to take profit resulting in falling prices," he said.

 

The value of gold has rocketed by Bt7,000 per baht weight since the beginning of this year, generating returns of over 20 per cent.

 

"The price will only hit Bt30,000 if the global market price reaches US$2,020 per ounce," Jitti added.

 

"However, we recommend that investors don’t place too much hope in gold and sell some to take profit, otherwise they face the same despair as eight years ago [during the last gold boom]."

 

Soure: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30392111

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-07-30
 
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Times are quite a bit different than 8 years ago.

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That must be one of the most ridiculous reports I've ever read. At the end of July the price of gold is $1,950 - and these brave forecasters reckon it will hit $2,020 by the end of the year, in five months' time.
That's a whole extra $70. What absolute <deleted>!

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Posted (edited)
On 7/31/2020 at 7:03 PM, pomozki said:

That must be one of the most ridiculous reports I've ever read. At the end of July the price of gold is $1,950 - and these brave forecasters reckon it will hit $2,020 by the end of the year, in five months' time.
That's a whole extra $70. What absolute <deleted>!

These gold experts are absolute fools. Gold gained $200 from mid-July until when this report was made (2 weeks)... As I type this, gold has just touched $2041.50. It was obvious when this report was penned that gold would go much higher than $2000.

 

People are not selling. Why would anyone with half a brain sell when the price is skyrocketing? When it breached $2000 last night, there was a pathetic pullback of only $8, before it blasted off and through the $2000 barrier again, reaching $2030 early this morning and then $2040 not long ago.

 

The peak today so far was 30,844 baht. It will be over 31,000 by tonight. (Where is that member that trashed my suggestion that it's a stupid idea to sell gold when it was $1740 not so long ago?)

 

Gold is not an investment as it doesn't offer any return. It's a crisis hedge, pure and simple, and we will probably see prices above $3000 by year's end or even higher. You've seen nothing yet. The highest volume of gold trading starts when the US Market opens at 7pm Thailand time, so don't be surprised if it is near 32,000 baht by tomorrow morning.

 

Edited by JensenZ
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On 7/31/2020 at 7:03 PM, pomozki said:

That must be one of the most ridiculous reports I've ever read. At the end of July the price of gold is $1,950 - and these brave forecasters reckon it will hit $2,020 by the end of the year, in five months' time.
That's a whole extra $70. What absolute <deleted>!

The MTS guy said "soon" - not the end of the year - and he was right.

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4 hours ago, JensenZ said:

These gold experts are absolute fools. Gold gained $200 from mid-July until when this report was made (2 weeks)... As I type this, gold has just touched $2041.50. It was obvious when this report was penned that gold would go much higher than $2000.

 

People are not selling. Why would anyone with half a brain sell when the price is skyrocketing? When it breached $2000 last night, there was a pathetic pullback of only $8, before it blasted off and through the $2000 barrier again, reaching $2030 early this morning and then $2040 not long ago.

 

The peak today so far was 30,844 baht. It will be over 31,000 by tonight. (Where is that member that trashed my suggestion that it's a stupid idea to sell gold when it was $1740 not so long ago?)

 

Gold is not an investment as it doesn't offer any return. It's a crisis hedge, pure and simple, and we will probably see prices above $3000 by year's end or even higher. You've seen nothing yet. The highest volume of gold trading starts when the US Market opens at 7pm Thailand time, so don't be surprised if it is near 32,000 baht by tomorrow morning.

 

In your analysis, why do you think gold prices will continue to rise?

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For some interesting reading for the true wonks, read FOFOA

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6 hours ago, Keyser Soze666 said:

In your analysis, why do you think gold prices will continue to rise?

It's not a case of thinking prices are going to rise. They ARE rising. It has already gone up $260 per ounce since July 14. It just touched $2056 tonight, less than a day after it breached $2000, for a total rise in 24 hours of about $88.

 

What's more, it breached $2000 with hardly any resistance at all. There was hardly any selling pressure. When treasury bonds are producing negative returns, the obvious solution is to get rid of them and put the money into gold. Now that the price has exceeded $2000, people are no longer looking for a bargain and just getting it at any price as FOMO (fear of missing out) grips the world.

 

If you want to know the reasons why gold will continue to rise, you can get some very good analysis from many experts online, but in a nutshell: CRISIS. Gold is a crisis hedge. When fiat currency fails, gold is your insurance. If the gold standard returns, which is possible if fiat currencies collapse, an ounce could be worth $15,000 or more.

 

 

 

 

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On 8/5/2020 at 5:16 PM, JensenZ said:

As I type this, gold has just touched $2041.50. It was obvious when this report was penned that gold would go much higher than $2000.

 

On 8/5/2020 at 5:16 PM, JensenZ said:

we will probably see prices above $3000 by year's end or even higher. You've seen nothing yet.

 

Obviously on the way to $3000

 

image.png.769fd7264e3b6a9267f2d9d1aad9196c.png

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13 hours ago, Susco said:
On 8/5/2020 at 5:16 PM, JensenZ said:

As I type this, gold has just touched $2041.50. It was obvious when this report was penned that gold would go much higher than $2000.

 

On 8/5/2020 at 5:16 PM, JensenZ said:

we will probably see prices above $3000 by year's end or even higher. You've seen nothing yet.

 

Obviously on the way to $3000

 

 

Getting to $3000 rapidly it seems

 

image.png.0dc3af091b4e861a5818f2bcf19f1a73.png

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A bit less ouch.....

 

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

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These large fluctuations are perfectly normal, and even contribute to the bullish outlook - huge volatility leads to large swings in both directions.


I still predict 2500 gold and 35/40 silver within a year, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.

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