Are Thailand's coronavirus numbers too good to be true?

[2 is 1]

11 hours ago, ravip said:

Is it possible for any government to hide mass deaths, if it is happening?

China, North Korea,Iran.......

 

11 hours ago, ravip said:

Can infected patients be hidden in public hospitals?

Not go in hospital!

 

But yeah , i believe numbers almost!

[ThailandRyan]

46 minutes ago, Logosone said:

He has a point actually, Covid parties are not a thing, it's fake news. Look it up:

 

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-parties-are-not-a-thing/

 

 

Seems you all missed the point, that teens and millennial are dying from Covid, which they deem to be a hoax.

[TooBigToFit]

It's amazing that there seems to be no year on year death figures to compare for pretty much all nations. You'd think there would be data of how many people died each month last year and the years before. With so many people and companies working in data and tech and governments so interested in data, the information would be there and we'd be talking about it now.

 

 

 

[JohnnyNJoy]

I'm sure the infected rate is relatively low in Thailand, but I'm sure there's some undocumented reports of people with covid. I can see that for a lot of places. I don't think Thailand is out of it yet. Who knows when a spike in cases will rise. I can see them misrepresenting the numbers though. 

[Letseng]

13 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

It is a 100% fact that their case detection is too good to be true, along with their transparency about reporting antibody testing results. 
 

“Low” is one thing - nonexistent for over 2 months is entirely another. 

Vietnam thought they do well....

[elliss]

13 hours ago, YetAnother said:

thailand = land of the half truth

 

     Forever, the optimist ... 555

 

 

Edited August 3, 2020 by elliss

[tribalfusion001]

43 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Seems you all missed the point, that teens and millennial are dying from Covid, which they deem to be a hoax.

Around 240 under 40s have died in the UK out 46,000 and under 25s is minimal. Unless an under 40 has underlying medical conditions they are highly unlikely to die from covid-19.

[DrTuner]

Excess deaths about 6-7.5k Nov 2019-Feb 2020, IFR ~1% = about 600-750k infections. Not apocalypse but nowhere near the official numbers. They could only test around 50/day in early 2020 and nothing in 2019.

[DrTuner]

4 hours ago, kwonitoy said:

interesting article from the Economist, might be  paywalled but there's ways around

 

 The Economist | The bat signal https://www.economist.com/node/21790007?frsc=dg%7Ce

 

People are wondering the same for SE Asia's low numbers, Vietnam, Cambodia, Lao, Thailand

It's a possibility the spread accelerated outside China, but the source is most probably in Yunnan. Thailand could well have been a superspreader in Nov-Dec 2019 with it's massive mass tourism.

Edited August 3, 2020 by DrTuner

[hanuman2543]

14 hours ago, AndrewMciver said:

Said before, they aren't testing on mass so it's unsure to know how many cases there are. 

 

However, if there was a huge amount of the population suffering or dying, we would know. So i do believe they've escaped the worst of it. 

 

 

For now

[Starmocihc]

They've obviously not tested but a fraction of the population, and that's the majority of the reason why numbers are low. Considering the staggering number of tourists traveling in and out of there between October 2019 until March 2020, you'd have to be full dim or simply delusional to believe otherwise. It had long been circulating in Thailand way before it was popular to be obsessively terrified with. That said, I think Thailand has taken the right approach to it in regards to testing. 

Oh, but, wait...if they had a major outbreak...the dead would be piling up and there's no way they could hide it. I absolutely agree, there's no way they could hide it. But no need, as it never occurred. Thailand is a great example of the reality of the matter. The west is in the wrong this time, in their handling of it. But that's not by accident. ????

[samtab]

True or not who cares ? the virus is clearly still here and can wake up anytime.

 

 

[Albert Zweistein]

17 hours ago, ravip said:

What would be the advantage to ANY government by hiding figures about this virus?

Can a government alone handle the situation without the cooperation of its citizens?

Is it possible for any government to hide mass deaths, if it is happening?

Can infected patients be hidden in public hospitals?

(Not trying to prove anything, just asking!)

Iran, Russia, perhaps China ?

[SidJames]

The laws of the rest of the planet do not exist here & that includes the sciences.

We are blessed that we're allowed to stay a while is such a blessed & regal country that spreads it protective wings over all of us.

If anything bad happens then it must be someone else's fault as the government here have done such a sterling job in protecting everyone & no one can prove otherwise.

Let the made up facts speak for themselves.

[Redline]

Does anyone really think Thailand is going to stay COVID free ???? dream on because it is just now getting started, as far as the entire world goes.

 

 It’s also picking up in areas previously in good shape 

[tribalfusion001]

11 minutes ago, Redline said:

Does anyone really think Thailand is going to stay COVID free ???? dream on because it is just now getting started, as far as the entire world goes.

 

 It’s also picking up in areas previously in good shape 

Look at Vietnam now and if Thailand gets any local infections it will go the same, lockdown again and bars/restaurants closed, booze ban etc.

 

Melbourne has gone OTT and having a curfew. The longer you go without any local infections, the worse the government reaction will be when you get some.

[Bundooman]

22 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

Dunno why you’re so sensitive about justified criticism of Thailand?

'Dunno' why you are so keen to criticise your host country?

As Ravid commented above, how many people do you know personally, that have had, or has, Covid 19 here in Thailand.

For me - not one!

not in 7 months.

Two in the UK - but zero here!

So, where are they all?

Where are they hiding, dying, contaminating, screaming blue murder downd the social media channels?

Silence!

Is golden......

but your eyes can't see.

 

[Mama Noodle]

21 minutes ago, Bundooman said:

'Dunno' why you are so keen to criticise your host country?

 

Ill criticize any country if I see fit, and Thailand isn't exempt simply for being Thailand.

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

23 hours ago, AndrewMciver said:

if there was a huge amount of the population suffering or dying, we would know. So i do believe they've escaped the worst of it. 

no you would not know.

if thousands of people died in thailand from the virus, you would not know.

it is known only to senior officials.

there are very good and simple ways to hide it.

you see what the media wants you to see. in every country.

[rtco]

15 hours ago, robblok said:

from the BBC hence i posted a link. Quite a nice article to read it shows that all countries covered stuff up

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

And you believe the BBC ... fakes news!!!

[FarFlungFalang]

4 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Look at Vietnam now and if Thailand gets any local infections it will go the same, lockdown again and bars/restaurants closed, booze ban etc.

 

Melbourne has gone OTT and having a curfew. The longer you go without any local infections, the worse the government reaction will be when you get some.

From and ABC article earlier this year 2017 Oz had 1100 deaths from influenza and o lockdowns or compulsory mask wearing and 900 deaths from influenza in 2019 without any countrywide interventions yet this year there are currently 200 deaths from Covid-19 and a massive meltdown of sanity and human rights and new laws being invented without scientific evidence and outside of the constitution.

 

 

"While 2019 saw the highest number of influenza cases across the country, 2017 still holds the record for the highest number of flu-related deaths, with over 1,100 cases.

Last year there were over 900 influenza linked deaths in Australia."

 

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/early-outbreaks-to-blame-for-worst-flu-season-on-record/11949320

[Logosone]

12 hours ago, PatrickC said:

 

Truth is, right now, we have no idea what the real death rates are. Trying to understand the figures right now is like trying to understand how a tsunami started when it is roaring down upon you. All these numbers mean nothing and are utterly useless right now. What we should focus on instead is rational measures to try and control the spread, without utterly destroying the economy.

 

This obsession with death rates is morbid and feeds into a scare story narrative which the media peddles. 

 

Life, it goes on. Freaking out about numbers achieves nothing right now. We need to just keep calm and carry on. 

The reason the media was able to run scare stories were unverified Pandora claims for deaths like those peddled by the now disgraced British academic Neil Ferguson on the basis of "mathematical modelling". That is precisely another reason why we need verified, documented and real death figures based on real world testing.

 

It takes the sting out of the scare stories. It was these unverified death claims based on mathematical modelling that allowed governments to put in place misguided lockdowns which damaged the economy.

 

Verified and documented testing is the answer. We have seen how Iceland tested on a grand scale and we saw their testing revealed 0.8% of the general populace had the virus. When you test you can isolate the infected, find the infected. This is why testing is so important. 

 

And that is why Thailand's false numbers, which the media is slowly picking up on and catching up with some on TVF, are a sign of failure, not of success. Looking at excess death figures it is amply clear that Thailand had thousands of deaths from Covid 19. 

[Laughing Gravy]

To the original title of the thread, yes I believe the numbers are too good to be true.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

To the original title of the thread, yes I believe the numbers are too good to be true.

I believe Thailand's Sars Cov 2 virus numbers are like a black man's left nut,not right and not fair!

[Captain Monday]

The numbers are true.

It would be impossible to hide the spike in 3 day funerals everywhere.

[DiJoDavO]

On 8/3/2020 at 7:31 AM, Mama Noodle said:

Dunno why you’re so sensitive about justified criticism of Thailand?

But once a foreigner is criticized, it's xenophobia and racism. And mostly on TV there's nothing good about Thailand, while most here decide for themselves to stay in Thailand or are abroad, complaining about things in places where they are currently not. 

[The Barmbeker]

5 hours ago, Bundooman said:

'Dunno' why you are so keen to criticise your host country?

As Ravid commented above, how many people do you know personally, that have had, or has, Covid 19 here in Thailand.

For me - not one!

not in 7 months.

Two in the UK - but zero here!

So, where are they all?

Where are they hiding, dying, contaminating, screaming blue murder downd the social media channels?

Silence!

Is golden......

but your eyes can't see.

 

I have never seen a Blue Whale!

I am quiet sure, they exist!

[CLW]

Numbers are certainly not true because without medication or vaccination it is impossible to eradicate the virus.

Still circulating among the population now but with mild to very mild symptoms. Antibody testing on a large scale would tell the bigger picture.

On the other hand there was never a critical situation with 1000's of deaths or hospitals overflowing like in other countries.

Until now, scientists don't know the real cause but in my opinion Thailand was just very lucky and got away with the worst. However that worked....

[GroveHillWanderer]

18 hours ago, PatrickC said:

IF Thailand had suffered 20,000 deaths in the 6 months of the Covid-19 crisis so far thats 3333 per month spread over 1318 hospitals - Thats 2.5 additional deaths per month per hospital.

If Thailand had suffered tens of thousands of otherwise-unexplained excess deaths, you might have a point - but they haven't. The excess mortality figures show only 2,316 additional deaths (from all causes) up to May 31 - and that was almost all in March and April. For most of May, deaths were actually below the average level (see below).

Edited August 4, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

But they haven't. The excess mortality figures show only 2,316 additional deaths (from all causes) up to May 31 - and that was almost all in March and April. For most of May, deaths were actually below the average level (see below).

The excess 2400 deaths are one piece of the puzzle, however, another is the fact that 6000 road deaths did not happen because of the lockdown restrictions. Since those 6000 deaths did not show up in the deaths figure you have to adjust the excess death figure accordingly.

 

It is thus more likely that 8400 excess deaths occurred in Thailand during the Covid-19 pandemic period.

 

Which makes a mockery of Thailand's official figures which are fit for Disney animation at best.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Logosone