webfact Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Thai exports may shrink by 15% this year - shippers FILE PHOTO: A worker stands next to shipping containers on a ship at a port in Bangkok, Thailand, March 25, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's exports may contract by 15% this year as the coronavirus pandemic hits global demand and a stubbornly strong baht <THB=TH> adds to pressure, a Thai shipping association said on Tuesday. Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, slumped 15.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier and 7.1% in the January-June period. The export picture in the third quarter will be similar to the second period as the global economy has yet to recover, Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, told reporters. While the group keeps its 2020 export target of minus 10% for now, Ghanyapad said there were more negative factors than positive ones and it was therefore possible that shipments could fall by 15%. That would be the sharpest decline since the commerce ministry started compiling records on exports in 1992 and compares with a 14.3% drop in 2009, during the global financial crisis. The baht was at 31.05 per dollar at 0710 GMT, a month high. The current level is much stronger than the 33-34 per dollar level needed to help exports, Ghanyapad said. "We want to shout to the central bank to help take care of it," she said. "The Thai economy is not better than the global economy but why the baht keeps strengthening?". The central bank previously said the strength of baht could hurt the recovery of Southeast Asia's second-largest economy which it predicts will contract by a record 8.1% this year. (Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by Martin Petty) -- © Copyright Reuters 2020-08-04 - Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you - Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Pottinger Posted August 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted August 4, 2020 Unfortunately, what's been seen so far is merely the thin end of the wedge. Fifteen Japanese companies left for Vietnam last month... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post PatOngo Posted August 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted August 4, 2020 2 hours ago, webfact said: Thailand's exports may contract by 15% this year as the coronavirus pandemic hits global demand and a stubbornly strong baht <THB=TH> adds to pressure, a Thai shipping association said on Tuesday. Nevermind, the hi-so and corrupt snouts can ship out their over valued Thai baht and buy sinking US dollars to enhance their ill gotten portfolio's! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cake Monster Posted August 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted August 4, 2020 I really see Exports shrinking by more than 25% on the year. To really help Exports, the Baht needs to be at between 34/35 to the US Dollar, and that will only help if Global Demand increases, which at the moment seems very unlikely, 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RichardColeman Posted August 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted August 4, 2020 2 hours ago, webfact said: Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, slumped 15.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier and 7.1% in the January-June period. Think I can safely predict 3rd qtr -25% ad 4th qtr -30-35%. With a yearly net loss in 2020 exports of at least -20% based on pre covid orders being fulfilled, if Thailand and the world does not end this lunacy. If your then roll into next year and we are still being nuts and no massive new orders, then the first two 'reasonable' qtrs of 2020, will then roll at -30-40%, making a rolling year of -30%. June to June. With tourism gone 100%, over the 2 that is a average drop of 60% - and these 'well paid Generals' are predicting less than 10% GDP drop. The thought that businesses will suddenly spring back into life, suddenly rehiring all the people they just sacked and releasing all the building they just left is laughable 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post hotchilli Posted August 5, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted August 5, 2020 17 hours ago, webfact said: Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, slumped 15.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier and 7.1% in the January-June period. Wait for the 3rd quarter then revise up the figure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isaan sailor Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 Central bankers and the Generals need to get out of their air conditioned headquarters, and pay a visit to the shipping docks and then visit the remaining exporters—to begin to understand the dire straits they find themselves in. Their economy continues to sink, while the band plays on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Meeseeks Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 From my offices in Laem Chabang it is business as usual. No great impact on the operations here yet. At least, none that is immediately apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivor bigun Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said: From my offices in Laem Chabang it is business as usual. No great impact on the operations here yet. At least, none that is immediately apparent. luckily same for the company my son runs there ,but next door closed down ,40 or so out of work . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papa al Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 IpHO. With the massive flooding in China's main agricultural areas, Thai farmers will be exporting at good prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trucking Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 I have shipped nothing to the USA or Europe since late March and there are hundreds more like me. So, obviously , none of us are buying stock here to ship out. A loss to the economy. Until Thailand post resumes ordinary service a lot of people less fortunate than myself might end up going to the wall. My supplier has so few orders he has had to lay off all his staff and is dealing with the trickle of orders he has remaining himself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaftToPutRealName Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 21 hours ago, Pottinger said: Unfortunately, what's been seen so far is merely the thin end of the wedge. Fifteen Japanese companies left for Vietnam last month... Surprised it's only 15; but unsurprisingly just a continuation of the exodus that started last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaftToPutRealName Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 3 hours ago, hotchilli said: Wait for the 3rd quarter then revise up the figure. What's it been so far? GDP -2%, then -2.6%, then -3%, then -5%, right? I feel bad for them, knowing that they can't actually report real numbers or get the blame for the under performance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeptic7 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 On 8/4/2020 at 4:40 AM, Pottinger said: Unfortunately, what's been seen so far is merely the thin end of the wedge. Fifteen Japanese companies left for Vietnam last month... Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post hotchilli Posted August 5, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted August 5, 2020 4 hours ago, DaftToPutRealName said: What's it been so far? GDP -2%, then -2.6%, then -3%, then -5%, right? I feel bad for them, knowing that they can't actually report real numbers or get the blame for the under performance. I don't feel bad... they've seen it coming for a long time but chose to do nothing, this isn't just about Covid. They ignored the signs hoping it would all go away, while they jostled for positions at the trough, but the economy has been on the slide for ages, Covid was the final straw that snapped it. Same as the tourism business, for a long time it was showing signs of slipping, only the recent mass influx of Chinese saved an otherwise dismal 2018/19, yet again they chose to keep the same business model, touting anyone who could fill the gap when the numbers started to drop-off due to many factors. CEO's of companies are crying out for the new team to get to work and get things going in the right direction.. which is not what's been happening for the last 6 years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blumpie Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 Without a doubt economies earth wide are going to suffer horrendously. And nobody is going to suffer more than tourism based economies. For Thailand, it's a one-two punch. When it does come back it will be huge, but what are we looking at time wise? If we get a vaccine by the end of this year maybe a year after that or two! There won't be four billion doses sitting around for widespread use. Afraid to say it, we're in for it. Gold is rising like mad - it's 2k per ounce and futures are higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isaan sailor Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 The zombie economy would make a classic case for the Harvard Business School. Everyone saw this coming—but inaction has let the economy crater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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