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asiacurious

No respect! US deaths by population vs deaths by positive case count

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He shows NO RESPECT to the title and has NO CLUE as to how to count cases.

 

 

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Here's the FULL interview, which I had not realized was posted to Youtube by HBO....
 

 

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18 minutes ago, shdmn said:

He's not a man.  He's a collection of personality disorders with legs, that have trouble walking down ramps.

And he should fire the guy who buys his suits at Walmart as the trousers are always too short.

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Posted (edited)

The two different statistics are legitimate measurements, but they mean very different things.

 

--The per capita death toll from CV (which probably gets more attention from experts) is the share of someplace's population that has died from the virus. As in, just how bad things are.

 

--The deaths as a proportion of CV cases is a measurement of how many people die among those who are infected with the CV.... That's not so much an indicator of how good or bad a country is doing, but moreso of how well a country's medical system and population is doing at keeping infected people alive.

 

And of course, Trump was lying/misleading with his own stats anyway, as is his custom:

 

Quote

 

The president produced a chart he said showed the U.S. was lower in the number of deaths per confirmed cases, though it only appeared to compare four data points. 

 

The U.S. does have a lower percentage of deaths per confirmed cases than several nations, including most members of the European Union. But the rate in the U.S. is higher than 98 other nations, including Australia, Japan and South Korea, according to data compiled by Statista.

 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/04/trump-tells-axios-rising-covid-19-death-toll-is-what-is/5579765002/

 

Quote

 

Swan asked how he could say that [the virus is "under control"] as the average number of daily deaths had climbed back up to over 1,000. 

"They are dying, that's true. And it is what it is," Trump said. "But that doesn't mean we aren't doing everything we can. It's under control, as much as you can control it." 

 

 

 

Edited by TallGuyJohninBKK
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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

USA far as I can see has done 61,000,000 tests for 331,000,000 people, or say 20% of the population

Thailand has done 750,000 tests for 69,000,00 people, or say 1%

UK has - basically same size as Thailand - had done 17,000,000 test or 25% of population.

 

From Johns Hopkins on your testing point:

 

Quote

 

The U.S. has conducted more COVID-19 tests than any other country. However, there is no expert consensus on a recommended target for the raw number of tests or even the rate of tests per capita – and the graph above demonstrates why using these statistics alone can be misleading.

 

In order for governments to identify new cases and effectively respond to the pandemic through tracing and treatment, testing programs should be scaled to the size of their epidemic, not the size of the population. In this visualization, you’ll see that several countries effectively controlled the spread of the virus through testing programs that had a far lower number of tests per capita than the U.S. Meanwhile, despite having the highest rate of tests per capita, the U.S. faces the largest outbreak in the world and new cases continue to trend upwards in many states.

Looking at the positivity rate (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) is the most reliable way to determine if a government is testing enough. A high rate of positive tests indicates a government is only testing the sickest patients who seek out medical attention and is not casting a wide enough net. The WHO has issued guidance stating that governments should see positivity rates below 5% for at least 14 days before relaxing social distancing measures.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/international-comparison

 

JH says the U.S. is currently 16th in the world in terms of having high CV test positive results, at 7.13% -- well above the WHO standard for relaxing social distancing, which Trump has already spurred across the country.

 

The same number also indicates the U.S. currently is NOT testing enough of its population relative to the outbreak, or the positivity stat would be lower.

 

 

Edited by TallGuyJohninBKK
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15 minutes ago, marc26 said:

"A new guy" will actually listen to the silence,

is that like, navel gazing ?

 

to shut down a large part of economy is poor leadership,

its called a knee jerk reaction

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1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Anyone thinking anyone could have done a worse job than Trump at managing (or in his case mismanaging) the U.S. CV pandemic is madder than Trump.

 

He literally is without compare when it comes to flushing the U.S. down the toilet. And pretty much the whole world knows and can see it.

 

If Trump loses in November, will the world's view of the US change?  Or will the US continue to be seen as people now see it?  

 

11 minutes ago, scammed said:

is that like, navel gazing ?

 

to shut down a large part of economy is poor leadership,

its called a knee jerk reaction

 

It seems like Covid shuts down economies regardless of the actions taken.  Shut everything down to protect the health of your people and the economy will suffer.  Refuse to shut down to keep things open and the economy will still suffer and you'll have millions sick, hundreds of thousands dead, hospitals overwhelmed, schools closed....

 

And which is the knee jerk reaction in this case?  Shutting down based on what the science is saying about a virus, or insisting that nothing is wrong based on... well, nothing actually?

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, asiacurious said:

 

If Trump loses in November, will the world's view of the US change?  Or will the US continue to be seen as people now see it?  

 

 

It seems like Covid shuts down economies regardless of the actions taken.  Shut everything down to protect the health of your people and the economy will suffer.  Refuse to shut down to keep things open and the economy will still suffer and you'll have millions sick, hundreds of thousands dead, hospitals overwhelmed, schools closed....

 

And which is the knee jerk reaction in this case?  Shutting down based on what the science is saying about a virus, or insisting that nothing is wrong based on... well, nothing actually?

sweden is fully operational and in fact gdp went up a bit

at covid outbreak. its going to contract due to rest of the world knee jerk reaction and sweden being an exporter will be affected as the rest of the world suffer economic famine

from the lunacy that has taken hold.

you could say an almost world wide self inflicted economic trauma,

and an immoral one at that since the 

bill is sent to future generations

Edited by scammed
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10 hours ago, scammed said:

sweden is fully operational and in fact gdp went up a bit

at covid outbreak. its going to contract due to rest of the world knee jerk reaction and sweden being an exporter will be affected as the rest of the world suffer economic famine

from the lunacy that has taken hold.

you could say an almost world wide self inflicted economic trauma,

and an immoral one at that since the 

bill is sent to future generations

Hmmm....  I'm not really up on Sweden, but a quick search regarding Sweden's outbreak turns up....

 

Quote

However, on a per-capita basis, Sweden far outpaces its Scandinavian neighbors in COVID deaths, with 567 deaths per million people compared with Denmark's 106 deaths per million, Finland's 59 deaths per million, and Norway's 47 deaths per million. The Swedish figure is closer to Italy's 581 deaths per million.

[SNIP]

The Swedish Public Health Agency has not openly stated that herd immunity was its goal, though many suspect this was the intention. Tegnell told reporters last week he thought the recent trends indicated that immunity was now widespread in the country. But with rates of antibody positivity around 10%, that seems impossible. (Officials at the agency did not respond to MedPage Today's request for comment.)

Source: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812

 

In terms of handling the virus, it seems like Sweden is doing a little better than some but quite a bit worse than others, in terms of death.

 

Economically there is this....

 

Quote

Sweden’s GDP increased by 0.1% in the first quarter, when seasonally adjusted and compared to the final three months of 2019. The median forecasters in a Reuters poll of economists had expected to see a 0.6% contraction on a quarterly basis.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

 

Sweden is indeed doing better than other countries economically, in some cases quite a bit better.  The forecast is for a big hit...

 

Quote

In June, the OECD’s biannual Economic Outlook summary put the full-year GDP growth forecast for Sweden between -7.8% and -6.7%, depending on the severity of a potential second wave. It puts Denmark slightly ahead with between -7.1% and -5.8%, with estimates for the UK (between -14% and -11%) and the U.S. (-8.5% or -7.3%) noticeably worse.

The European Commission is slightly less dismal, estimating a eurozone GDP decline for the year of 8.7%, but Sweden (-5.3%) and Denmark (-5.25%) as the second and third best-performing member states after Poland (-4.5%). 

Source: https://www.aier.org/article/the-economic-performance-of-coronavirus-sweden/

 

But not as big a hit as others.

 

I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of what the GDP cost per life lost is for each country is.  Or if anyone will do that.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, asiacurious said:

Hmmm....  I'm not really up on Sweden, but a quick search regarding Sweden's outbreak turns up....

 

Source: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812

 

 

 

Johns Hopkins per capita CV death data places Sweden, with 5744 official CV deaths, as having the 8th highest CV fatality rate in the world, even higher/worse than the U.S.  Sweden's current rate is 56.41 deaths per 100K population. The U.S. rate is 47.50.

 

Chart ranked by CV deaths per 100K population:

Screenshot_2.jpg.fc98fb5cfa762484efc94ae7d2156b04.jpg

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

Not exactly a ranking to be proud of...

 

BTW, if I'm doing the math right, if we were to apply Sweden's per capita CV death rate to the U.S. population, instead of currently having 155,000+ dead from CV, the U.S. right now would instead have about 186,000 CV deaths. That would be about 30,000 more U.S. deaths than the U.S. actually has thus far....  So that's what the Sweden model would get you.

 

 

Edited by TallGuyJohninBKK
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