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Covid-19 and the economy: Thai takes bigger hit than 1997 crisis - three million could be unemployed by year end


webfact

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"Apart from tourism, sectors of the economy that are facing greater than 70% contractions include hotels, restaurants",

 

The quote above taken from the last paragraph from the chamber of commerce statement just goes to prove these idiots make things up as they go along.

Are Hotels not part of the tourist industry!

 

 

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5 minutes ago, onebir said:

IDK about the central bank, but won't Thai households be selling gold (to raise funds if they're affected by the recession &/ take profits)? If so, those 'exports of gold' will support the baht for a while. (And any efforts to weaken the baht by the central bank could backfire, by raising the price of gold in baht and triggering more profit-taking.) 

Surely if, (and I understand the small amounts we are talking about) there is a mass sell off of Gold to take profits it will lead to a glut of Gold on the market and in theory have a adverse affect on the price.

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Thailand needs to look at the big picture.  To compete and in fact, to flourish in today’s global trade economy—you need a skilled workforce, well-developed infrastructure and a competitive currency.  

Thailand has only one of these three.

Instead of blaming other countries weak currencies, they need to take a hard look at their own inflated Baht, and take immediate actions.

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7 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Record low interest rates, inflation and the Nasdaq is at all time highs.  

The Nasdaq isn't money in your pocket, record low interest rates are there to encourage firms not to sack their workers and to encourage people to spend (which they aren't doing much, savings are at an all time high) The Dollar is weakening against the pound and even more so against the Euro this is expected to last for between 6 months to a year. The expansion of industry in America is stuttering while in Europe it is increasing at a steady rate. America has debt of around 24 trillion Dollars and increasing. Thailand has little foreign debt and a large cushion of foreign currency to tide it over bad times, hence the strength of the Baht. China's industrial output is gaining in speed and this is beneficial to countries in Asia like Thailand.

Edited by soalbundy
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6 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

I would say 3 Million unemployed is a very conservative figure; 6 million may be nearer the mark and there is already an undercurrent of protest in The North about what the Brainless of Bangkok are going to do about it apart from offering 'Holiday Vouchers' !

Indeed, and probably more than 6 million.

The Thai economy is heading for one huge train crash unless the government get's serious about addressing the obvious problems

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1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

The Nasdaq isn't money in your pocket, record low interest rates are there to encourage firms not to sack their workers and to encourage people to spend (which they aren't doing much, savings are at an all time high) The Dollar is weakening against the pound and even more so against the Euro this is expected to last for between 6 months to a year. The expansion of industry in America is stuttering while in Europe it is increasing at a steady rate. America has debt of around 24 trillion Dollars and increasing. Thailand has little foreign debt and a large cushion of foreign currency to tide it over bad times, hence the strength of the Baht. China's industrial output is gaining in speed and this is beneficial to countries in Asia like Thailand.

Your comments and thinking are outdated and not relevant to the current situation.

An entire new economy will be created due to this crisis.

Wait and see.  Yes, Nasdaq is not money in my pocket now, but definitely money in the bank technology will/is creating a path for the future and will be the major focal point of the new economy with western produced technology leading the way.

Unfortunately, I do not see Thailand being prepared for this new economy so it will probably remain in a rut for an extended period of time.

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11 hours ago, webfact said:

Covid-19 and the economy: Thai takes bigger hit than 1997 crisis - three million could be unemployed by year end

And the bad news just keeps trickling out bit by bit... economy by the end of the year 30% -40% down... my prediction.

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Oddly, I just haven't noticed the effects yet. The beach has been absolutely packed over the weekends in Cha-am including accompanying traffic jams and you can't even find a place the park at the mall. It's incredible. 

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Somebody said the stock market will crash. That is not the case.

 

No reason for that to happen at all.

 

Some more small businesses may fail, however, the stock markets will not. The DAX and S&P are doing very well. A dip now is a good opportunity to buy.

 

Anyone who says the stock market will crash should justify this extreme view. It will not.

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8 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

I would say 3 Million unemployed is a very conservative figure; 6 million may be nearer the mark and there is already an undercurrent of protest in The North about what the Brainless of Bangkok are going to do about it apart from offering 'Holiday Vouchers' !

Perhaps, and I suspect it is the case, the 3 million are from the "official sector" - registered, tax and social security payers/recipients. Add in the larger numbers from the unregulated unofficial employment sector - particularly well represented in the hard hit entertainment, hospitality, construction and restaurant sectors and you are probably looking at a figure well north of 10 million, well north!

 

The mutterings of discontent could raise steam like a Bulleid pacific on Welsh steam coal (a simile specially penned for "trainman 34014") if steps are not taken to relieve this disastrous situation!

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18 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

Perhaps, and I suspect it is the case, the 3 million are from the "official sector" - registered, tax and social security payers/recipients. Add in the larger numbers from the unregulated unofficial employment sector - particularly well represented in the hard hit entertainment, hospitality, construction and restaurant sectors and you are probably looking at a figure well north of 10 million, well north!

 

The mutterings of discontent could raise steam like a Bulleid pacific on Welsh steam coal (a simile specially penned for "trainman 34014") if steps are not taken to relieve this disastrous situation!

A Bulleid could raise steam on a Firebox full of old Wellington Boots !

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8 hours ago, ChaiyaTH said:

The baht is so strong due to an faked uptrend of the past years, blown up by greed, that now ended. Same anywhere on earth but ppl remain ignorant. The financial system is fake and tax payers keep paying for every crisis while the elite and smart ppl relax. 

 

A debt that can not be repaid is called slavery. Thank the sheeps!

Totally agree. Furthermore the 'logic' that Thailand currency is strong because other currencies are weak is ridiculous! If other much larger countries with far more diverse and developed economies can have their currencies weakened due to covid shutdown/economic downturn then why shouldn't  Thailand's currency also be weakened? I think we all know the answer! And it ain't due to cutting-edge, innovative and well planned government measures! 

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14 hours ago, Rancid said:

Western countries that went into lock down, since cases are popping up again, have decided to...go into lock down again, just longer. Its the old adage for the ignorant, if it doesn't work the first time, then just do it again, but more of it.

 

Western countries aren't going in lock down 'again'!

But where they made a huge mistake in the beginning of not quarantining and testing holiday makers on their return, they are now doing exactly that. 
Most countries that have relaxed their measures saw an uprising due to people carelessly ignoring the fact that covid-19 is still very much amongst us. 
With some minor extra restrictions those countries are already seeing a drop again in the number of covid cases. 

 

We won't be holidaying in Thailand this year and it will be well in the second quarter of next year that doors will be opened for tourists again.  
I hope I am wrong because I really need a holiday but I am afraid that is the new reality. 

 

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15 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I've not seen any case studies of countries collapsing because of a strong currency...plenty for those that had weak ones. Can you point me to any such studies as they would be interesting reading.

 

Nobody has anything others "absolutely" need; however countries have comparative advantages over others in certain goods and services. Therefore it makes economic sense to engage in trade, which lets countries specialize in what they do best and leaves us all richer and better off.

What is Thailand's competitive advantage that answers the millions of Thais in tourism who are likely to not find tourism related work for the next couple of years? 

 

What industry can absorb them? 

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10 hours ago, DrTuner said:

You should probably take a look at industrial estates instead of beaches if you want to see the first signs.

Absolutely. Not saying that people aren't hurting and lots of businesses have closed down where we are as well, that's why i find it so strange to see the beach and malls are packed and such heavy traffic on the roads especially on the weekends with Thai tourists. 

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The businesses that support the tourist industry are also either closed or 

have to down size drastically to survive. That means even more people unemployed.

companies. Warehouse companies that held supplies for all the hotels and

restaurants, not needed. the wholesale companies that got food, and supplies for

Security companies, not needed to be as large, as not many hotels fully opened.

  Large shopping centers, with only locals do not need to be as big so many

are having problems with their rental stalls within the malls. There are many

people who are not working because of the Corona virus and they will be out

of work for a lot longer.  Only a matter of time before the baht has to get lowered.

  I believe that there are more like 40 to 50 percent of Thailand's people who are

affected by the corona virus and being out of work. Not just the Tourist sector.

The USA will not be helping with their population headed out for trips, as they

are toxic and not welcomed by most of the rest of the world. Europe has their issues, and

I doubt that many will be venturing far from their homes as well.  A lot of people are

sending their kids back to school, and are still catching up with being off their jobs

for 3 or 4 months, so not that much have lots of spare cash for the 3000 to 4000

dollar trips to Thailand or anywhere.  Next year is the hope for some who may be

starting to save a bit again.

Geezer

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18 hours ago, onebir said:

IDK about the central bank, but won't Thai households be selling gold (to raise funds if they're affected by the recession &/ take profits)? If so, those 'exports of gold' will support the baht for a while. (And any efforts to weaken the baht by the central bank could backfire, by raising the price of gold in baht and triggering more profit-taking.) 

I don't believe Thai locals selling their gold will raise the price of gold here,I heard once that the gold shop refused to buy it as they said they didn't have enough cash to pay for it! they have liquidity issues too....I bought@10,500 for my wedding gift back in 2006,it was expensive then for me..... Still life is fab here! Where can one  buy rice soup ???? for 30 Baht and eat for 2 days!? Good Morning!

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1 hour ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

The businesses that support the tourist industry are also either closed or 

have to down size drastically to survive. That means even more people unemployed.

companies. Warehouse companies that held supplies for all the hotels and

restaurants, not needed. the wholesale companies that got food, and supplies for

Security companies, not needed to be as large, as not many hotels fully opened.

  Large shopping centers, with only locals do not need to be as big so many

are having problems with their rental stalls within the malls. There are many

people who are not working because of the Corona virus and they will be out

of work for a lot longer.  Only a matter of time before the baht has to get lowered.

  I believe that there are more like 40 to 50 percent of Thailand's people who are

affected by the corona virus and being out of work. Not just the Tourist sector.

The USA will not be helping with their population headed out for trips, as they

are toxic and not welcomed by most of the rest of the world. Europe has their issues, and

I doubt that many will be venturing far from their homes as well.  A lot of people are

sending their kids back to school, and are still catching up with being off their jobs

for 3 or 4 months, so not that much have lots of spare cash for the 3000 to 4000

dollar trips to Thailand or anywhere.  Next year is the hope for some who may be

starting to save a bit again.

Geezer

Nicely posted,the broader picture which is rarely portrayed ethically and factually doesn't exist here!I am amazed having worked in Tourism industry that everything is geared for going upmarket and Extortionately expensive packages, forcing the middle to lower bed capacities to go bankrupt,we hear already manufacturers are laying off hundreds of workforce in Rayong area and Chonburi... what is ignored is that the existing travelers just cannot afford to travel these long distances,let alone pop over to sunny Torremolinos or Portugal,I saw a documentary about Mykonos without bare and gorgeous bodies ❣️!

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23 hours ago, Rancid said:

Western countries that went into lock down, since cases are popping up again, have decided to...go into lock down again, just longer. Its the old adage for the ignorant, if it doesn't work the first time, then just do it again, but more of it.

 

We are probably looking at the Greater Depression coming up, the world economy is toast, its just that most haven't woken up to it yet. There are going to be a lot of poor, angry and unemployed people wandering around which will lead to the obvious consequences. That will not be pretty in Thailand or anywhere else.

 

Those arguing against lock down were not heartless, it was just obvious that it would lead to an economic disaster much worse than the virus. Even UNICEF is predicting hundreds of thousands of dead children due to the virus lock downs, and that is just the tip of the iceberg. So who was really heartless?

The western countries really did not go into lockdown the first time. But, hey, why quibble over facts.

 

Ok, so it is obvious that you do not believe in containment measures. Here's a question that I would like you to answer.

- How do you propose to manage the factories  that will suffer from waves of infected workers such that they are forced to shut down as was the case with the  food processors during the first wave.

If you do not agree with their reduced worker density  resulting in  reduced output, which acts to  control the spread of the infection, what is your alternative solution?

 

- How will you manage the  growing numbers of infected who are now presenting with secondary  complications like heart attack and stroke?

 

- How will you manage the health care system when  hospital ICUs are overwhelmed and all  non critical procedures must be canceled because it is too dangerous to undertake them? How will you replace the  health workers who are off sick or dead?

 

- How will you care for all the people who will become ill? Do you plan to just let them die?

 

- What is your position on infected children, now that  it is becoming apparent that they are  incurring lung damage and circulatory system  impact?

 

- When the dead start piling up, what should be done with them? mass unmarked graves or just douse with gasoline on street corners and set them alight?

 

- When the millions of people  are ill and require  3-6 weeks to  get back on their feet, how will they support themselves in the countries without a social net, like the USA?\

 

- What is your strategy to manage the repeat infections that are expected to occur?

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On 8/6/2020 at 11:50 PM, Mac98 said:

Dump the 800k-400k baht  requirement for the estimated 100k retirees. Release 60 billion baht into the economy.

If things get any worse the government will be taking that off you

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