Tourism revenue could plummet over 75 per cent

[CGW]

10 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

There are far more questions than there are answers. Yet, these nitwits keep trotting out these projections. Based on what? 

"Based" on job security? TAT has gone for being "responsible for ~3 trillion a year to zero! they are trying to remain relevant and maintain status and a mega salary for BOD and executives! Bet none of them have taken a paycut?

The "government" subsidises TAT to the tune of "many billions" every year, they have become irrelevant, no doubt they will say otherwise!

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, Aussie Col said:

They need to let farangs back in with Thai wife's without jumping through hoops and and those with Children ASAP to start the tourist ball rolling again

Not necessarily to start the tourism ball rolling, but to stop your family become destitute !

[Jack Cook]

All over for Thai tourism bar the shouting, even the national airline is bankrupt. NEVER going to be even close to what it was in the past.

[sandyf]

17 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

At the very least they have cleared up one mystery for us. At 3 trillion baht a year, that represents about 20% of the nation's economy. Not 8%. Not 12%.

It has never been a mystery. There is a tendency for people to get mixed up between the financial and employment ratios.

 

 According to the secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council in 2019, the government projects that the tourism sector will account for 30% of GDP by 2030, up from 20% in 2019.^[4]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand

[anon7854]

4 hours ago, hansnl said:

Maybe a good time to woo the expats living in Thailand to stay in Thailand?

Every expat, on average, brings 50,000 Baht into the country, every month!

Yeah but a tourist spends double in 2 weeks 

Edited August 9, 2020 by anon7854

[thaiowl]

4 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I was in Pattaya yesterday and the beach was empty. It looked pristine.

 

Businesses gone everywhere; boarded up, shut down, for sale and rent, gutted out, entire blocks fenced off...

 

The odd foreigner wandering about, but it was like a ghost town.

 

The party is truly over for anyone involved in the tourism sector. And for the foreseeable.

 

If you are a foreigner with a business in tourism, you should have cut your losses and ran already.

 

Worse to come too, travelling to these areas will become more dangerous with more scams, gouging, crime rates will rise exponentially against foreigners, envy and jealousy of people with money will kick in and things will get nasty.

 

Those that were prudent and squirreled away money for a rainy day may get through this.

 

Spendthrifts and money-wasters that live hand to mouth are in trouble.

 

Chok dee!

I was in Pattaya yesterday and was shocked, firstly because the hotel I had booked and paid for (via Agoda) was closed and had been closed for months. The place was really quiet, road were pretty empty...the attached photo is Beach Road yesterday afternoon. Lots of closed hotels, bars, restaurants..."for sale" and "for rent" signs. Has the feel of a dying resort.

[DefaultName]

Unless there's a vaccine, foreign tourist revenue should be zero.

 

Also, it isn't so long since tourism income was regarded as minor and tourists as more a nuisance than an asset.  That changed fast when they realised just how much money tourists actually put into circulation, not just the taxable money that the government sees directly, but the tips, food carts, bar girl fees, etc. that never get taxed but get spent. 

 

Buy a drink for a girl

she buys noodles

noodle seller buys new supplies

supplier buys from factory

factory buys from farmer

farmer buys seed etc.

seed supplier buys new seed from specialist seed producer

....................................... 

and all gets transported at each stage, so add in the transport industry.

 

Buy a drink, save Thailand.  ????

[Pedrogaz]

Thailand is a victim of its own success with corona virus. It has done an outstanding job of keeping the the virus numbers low and protecting the local population but cannot re-open until other countries have done a similar job of eradicating the virus. If it opens up no, then we will have the first wave all over again. If other countries have done as well as Thailand in controlling the virus then we could open ups safely. But places like the UK and Europe have done a lousy job and we can't admit their infected populations any time soon. There has to be a bloodbath for small players in the tourism sector.

On the other hand the good news is, if the government are will to take the role, they can improve the tourism experience of visitors by allowing all the surplus restaurants, T-shirt and souvenir shops to go out of business. Same with excess hotel rooms and condominiums,. 

[soalbundy]

75% is a win win.

[sambum]

7 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

This represents a drop of 9 per cent from the previous worst-case scenario forecast for this year of Bt742.5 billion, a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year.

 

So this is a worst case worst case scenario! What about the worst case worst case worst case number?

 

Good to see the TAT back in business throwing random numbers around.

 

 

At the risk of sounding insensitive (which I'm not - I feel deeply sorry for all the people who have lost their jobs and livelihoods due to this awful virus) but at least it has shown that it is possible for TAT to come out with forecasts of DECREASES in tourism, instead of their usual vastly inflated "guesstimates" of month upon month INCREASES! 

[RichardColeman]

29 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

It's not the 50-60 deaths Thailand has had.

 

It's the thousands more that would occur along with the collapse of its medical system and all the collateral damage, if they let the virus in and it runs rampant in the country.

 

 

Thailand's death rate per 100,000 for flu and pneumonia each year is 47-48. so about 32,000 people each year die from flu. You, what you want, to shut every country in the world for flu every year that kills about 650,000 each year world wide and 32k in Thailand for fear of rampant collateral damage ? Do you ban road travel for all Thais - they are draining the hospitals each year. I think this year there have been 25,000 cases of dengue fever in Thailand this year with 15 deaths - should travel to Thailand be banned by the world ? 

 

Open up, mask up, wash hands and for heaven's sake get on with it. 

 

 

[sandyf]

7 minutes ago, Jack Cook said:

All over for Thai tourism bar the shouting, even the national airline is bankrupt. NEVER going to be even close to what it was in the past.

A year ago it wasn't close to what it was in the past, nothing new in that.

What is new is that in the space of a few weeks, the whole world will not be the same as it was in the past.

The 2 largest airlines in the UK are in financial trouble and Richard Branson has had to sell his shares in Virgin Galactica to keep the group afloat. British Airways made large redundancies and cut salaries by around 50% to stay afloat, thousands of lives that won't be close to what they were in the past.

Trying times all round.

[dallen52]

Sadly I'm starting to think that they deserve every thing that happens . 

Many have suggested ways that it could work, with controlled numbers, and NOT bubble communities. 

 

Totalitarian regimes and control disguised as covid19 lockdown.

Disgusting. 

 

They still don't get it. 

Tourism and tens of thousands of people like myself support millions of people in Thailand. 

Help communities to tick over..

The government gives them sweet f a...

You can say they don't pay taxes, but that should not exclude anyone from social security and Medicare in a wealthy country like this..

Don't get me going on the 5000 baht handouts that only a few received...

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by dallen52

[Andrew65]

2 hours ago, crazykopite said:

Why would I want to travel around Thailand when immigration insist on me reporting where I am staying I would spend more time at an IO than sightseeing ☹️☹️☹️

Immigration always have insisted on knowing people's whereabouts. When we stop in a hotel we don't notice cos they keep records. This was/is part of the problem with Air B&B, the owners aren't doing that.

[sambum]

14 minutes ago, anon7854 said:

Yeah and a tourist spends double in 2 weeks 

And then he/she is gone! Whereas for this year (at least!) he/she is not here in the first place! Therefore leaving the slim pickings to be had from the ex pats who are here week in week out and putting a conservative estimate of half a million baht a year EACH into the Thai economy!

 

And at least I have enough common sense to realise that not every tourist spends 100,000 baht in 2 weeks!

 

[Jack P]

Figure is closer to 90%.

[Eindhoven]

4 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I was in Pattaya yesterday and the beach was empty. It looked pristine.

 

Businesses gone everywhere; boarded up, shut down, for sale and rent, gutted out, entire blocks fenced off...

 

The odd foreigner wandering about, but it was like a ghost town.

 

The party is truly over for anyone involved in the tourism sector. And for the foreseeable.

 

If you are a foreigner with a business in tourism, you should have cut your losses and ran already.

 

Worse to come too, travelling to these areas will become more dangerous with more scams, gouging, crime rates will rise exponentially against foreigners, envy and jealousy of people with money will kick in and things will get nasty.

 

Those that were prudent and squirreled away money for a rainy day may get through this.

 

Spendthrifts and money-wasters that live hand to mouth are in trouble.

 

Chok dee!

 

On the other hand, I was in Jomtien/na Jomtien last night. Chockablock with domestic and what looked like a few Chinese tourists...and I mean chockablock.

I looked at eating at Pupen restaurant, but changed my mind after seeing the crowds. Ate at a nearby seafront restaurant instead. But even there, a constant stream of people were arriving. This wasn't one of the cheaper venues.

Meanwhile in central Pattaya...dead.

 

 

[bipper]

That's the figure most countries are dealing with it's not just Thailand suffering in this area. I suppose suggesting how they can manage re-marketing Thailand as a place to come where tourists are treated fairly #2pricethailand springs to mind. The Government tackling Xenophobic behaviour by their ministers and brainstorming as to how to reverse the mindset that it's okay to rip off anyone not Thai might be too much to expect?  Ample time at this stage of a global pandemic to address the real problems they will face after this is all over.

Edited August 9, 2020 by bipper

[sambum]

12 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Thailand's death rate per 100,000 for flu and pneumonia each year is 47-48. so about 32,000 people each year die from flu. You, what you want, to shut every country in the world for flu every year that kills about 650,000 each year world wide and 32k in Thailand for fear of rampant collateral damage ? Do you ban road travel for all Thais - they are draining the hospitals each year. I think this year there have been 25,000 cases of dengue fever in Thailand this year with 15 deaths - should travel to Thailand be banned by the world ? 

 

Open up, mask up, wash hands and for heaven's sake get on with it. 

 

 

See that policy worked wonders for the USA and the UK! (Even after Trump's U-turn on the masks issue!)

 

P.S.  "should travel to Thailand be banned by the world?"   Thailand has already effectively done that already by banning International flights! 

Edited August 9, 2020 by sambum

[dallen52]

6 hours ago, madmitch said:

I suppose the TAT statistician(s) have to do something but it surely is a total waste of time coming up with figures based on nothing but hypothesis and guesswork.

Its either going to be right or wrong. 

Normally wrong..

 

[dallen52]

4 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

No one is going hungry in this village.  They eat things they grow,  harvest or catch everyday, not just in an emergency.   We like watermelon brand rice and there is usually one or 2 x 10kg bags in kitchen.  My B-in-L grows 2 rai of sticky rice for Mar on some of her land...it usually gets shared around.  I have 5 x 50L boxes with farang friendly food.  If things get tough and food stocks are low in the supermarket I think we and others can survive. I would imagine a lot of villages all over Thailand would survive.

Good on you..

At Least you are still in the LOS.

Almost 6 months stuck here in Melbourne and only a glimpse of a possible return. 

Retirement Visa non O. 

And about 140,000 baht for me to get back to Thailand. 

Yes they seem to do ok without us there.

Even mine is growing a few vegetables. 

Still have to buy rice, still have to pay the electric bill and school fees.

Not to forget the mobile phones lol.

 

[dallen52]

4 hours ago, hansnl said:

Maybe a good time to woo the expats living in Thailand to stay in Thailand?

Every expat, on average, brings 50,000 Baht into the country, every month!

And allow the ones stranded abroad to get back to their home and families. 

[NewGuy]

RichardColeman, for what it’s worth, Wikipedia says Thailand in 2019 had 106 dengue deaths and up to some point this year there were 4.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–2020_dengue_fever_epidemic

[Surasak]

7 hours ago, madmitch said:

I suppose the TAT statistician(s) have to do something but it surely is a total waste of time coming up with figures based on nothing but hypothesis and guesswork.

So, just more hot air to add to the all ready hot air we suffer each and every day. Well done Tt, you will be catching up with yourselves coming back at this rate.

[Jack Hna]

4 hours ago, mr mr said:

tourism revenue plummets over 75 percent. 

 

in the headline what exactly is a per cent ? like are we talking change for a dollar or ? 

We are talking common sense you grammar nazi

[Anna Rak]

Beirut used to be the playground of the rich and famous until the power hungry factions saw a way of filling brown envelopes for themselves, they took some much out of the economy that the currency is worthless and all the normal people have US dollar accounts.

 

Since the devastation of the explosion the other day all the population want the corrupt leaders out of power so they can try and rebuild their country. There could be a day of reckoning coming, and I hope for the sake of Thailand the youth are watching developments.

 

I see many similarities here in the LOS. 

[Bobydog]

I cannot believe the visions this Govenment has, where do they get it all?  only now they start to see what we already new, amazing!  Such a shame to see a country with so much potential get flushed down the proverbial sh....er by people that have it so good themselves cannot generate a sensible idea. The couldn't organise a "P" up in a brewerie. 

[agood1963]

10 hours ago, rooster59 said:

In the best-case scenario, the sector is expected to generate Bt1.52 trillion revenue next year, far lower than the Bt3.93 trillion predicted before the outbreak began

I think even Bt1.52 trillion is very over estimated if prayut as is way the boarders will still be closed next year .

 

[Xonax]

Nothing wrong with these figures. There are just too many hotels in Thailand.       

 

It cannot be that bad after after all. I have just been searching on Agoda for a nice and cheap holiday at the beach in December and several hotels does not have anything available on my preferred dates. Prices are, with very few exceptions, not much cheaper than the last years. Furthermore Agoda claims that 27% have been booked already.

Edited August 9, 2020 by Xonax

[milesinnz]

4 hours ago, naryan said:

For 4 mounts there have been no tourists and it does not look any different in the near future.

So I make no tourists down 100% maybe I'm NOT GOOD A MATHS but 0 coming in  makes 0.

And the regulations that will be in place do not make Thailand a good place for tourists topped

with a high THB and extreme racism not a good advert for wish you were here!

The resent Marathon excluding foreign participation and the 2 prices for Thais and foreigners not very welcoming. I have a Thai wife or I would go elsewhere, so I'm not really a tourist.

put it down to "rounding errors".. TAT were never very good at maths..