Tourism revenue could plummet over 75 per cent

[herfiehandbag]

4 hours ago, anon7854 said:

Yeah but a tourist spends double in 2 weeks 

Yes, however:

1) There are no ( zero, nill, null, none) tourists, and unlikely to be any this year, probably into next year.

 

2) They may spend double that in two weeks, but only once. The expats spend throughout the year.

 

For the want of a pragmatic simple temporary solution to the visa/extension problems facing many expats, they could ensure a steady, if not spectacular, flow of cash into the rural economy.

Edited August 9, 2020 by herfiehandbag

[GAZZPA]

8 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I was in Pattaya yesterday and the beach was empty. It looked pristine.

 

Businesses gone everywhere; boarded up, shut down, for sale and rent, gutted out, entire blocks fenced off...

 

The odd foreigner wandering about, but it was like a ghost town.

 

The party is truly over for anyone involved in the tourism sector. And for the foreseeable.

 

If you are a foreigner with a business in tourism, you should have cut your losses and ran already.

 

Worse to come too, travelling to these areas will become more dangerous with more scams, gouging, crime rates will rise exponentially against foreigners, envy and jealousy of people with money will kick in and things will get nasty.

 

Those that were prudent and squirreled away money for a rainy day may get through this.

 

Spendthrifts and money-wasters that live hand to mouth are in trouble.

 

Chok dee!

Good post, I believe very accurate. The bit that stands out to me is crime.. It has to rise, it always will and does when people are poor and desperate. Those old pensioners living there will need to be cautious now like never before. Personal safety is the most important thing now, Pattaya already has a reputation for trying to get hold of your cash through scams and "i love you handsome man" young, poor women. We know many already fall for the later. What looks like a carefree stroll down a nice deserted beach could be unsafe and risky. I don't believe I am exaggerating, I think it is a real factor to consider now. Best to stay within your complex/resort as much as possible and ride this out for the next 12 months... 

[sambum]

1 hour ago, anon7854 said:

 A trip for two weeks for two people costs around 69,841 baht.  Yeah they are gone after 2 weeks only for others to take their place. Expat money from an economic point of view are technically nothing for the Thai economy and why they decided to make you pay additionally with a " keep money here" policy if you want any visa. There is so few of you and there are so much of them ( tourists) , it is really immature to compare the spending power of expats with the one of tourists. I thought that was pretty clear. Otherwise I can guarantee you they would of kissed your feet to just to stay and not come up with stupid measures making it hard for you each year.

Notice I didn't mention anything about covid situation as it is irellevant. I want to see how the expat population will save thai economy from the upcoming catastrophe.  Come on , don't fool yourself.

Suddenly it is not "every tourist spends 100,000 baht on a 2 weeks holiday"? (Which works out at 200,000 baht for 2!) It's now 2 people spending 69,841 baht - bit of a difference!!

 

And you didn't mention the Covid situation because it IS 100% relevant! In my neck of the woods (which is a tourist area) who do you think are spending money in the restaurants and bars and hotels now that there are no tourists - take one guess, and it's not Thais because most of them have no jobs, or have gone back home.

 

"There are so few of you" Really? From 5 days ago:-

" Tourism and Sports Ministry, Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn, is asking hotels to offer “fair packages to expats and avoid price discrimination”. He said that there are 2 million foreign residents who would be able to travel domestically at this stage and contribute to a local revival of tourism before the borders are re-opened for general tourism."

 

So it would appear that at least the Tourism and Sports Minister realises that expats are of some value at least, so come on, "don't fool yourself", who's keeping the ship afloat at the moment? I would say that the catastrophe is already here, not "upcoming", and expats are keeping more than a few people in work, and contributing a fair bit of money to the Thai economy, and it is a bit "immature" of you to belittle it.

Edited August 9, 2020 by sambum

[DrTuner]

When you expose yourself to dependency on foreign income instead of educating the people to move up higher in the value ladders, well, it's a risk you take for limited reward. So don't be surprised when the margin call comes. Somnamnaa.

[MRToMRT]

The stranded retirees are still offering to come back and do their bit. 

[Know not me]

Where do they get these numbers from??? Just dream them up out of thin air

[DJ54]

Need a genie in a bottle.... guess all the reminders are so we’ll know someone is working on it...

 

[NRGF]

9 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I was in Pattaya yesterday and the beach was empty. It looked pristine.

 

Businesses gone everywhere; boarded up, shut down, for sale and rent, gutted out, entire blocks fenced off...

 

The odd foreigner wandering about, but it was like a ghost town.

 

The party is truly over for anyone involved in the tourism sector. And for the foreseeable.

 

If you are a foreigner with a business in tourism, you should have cut your losses and ran already.

 

Worse to come too, travelling to these areas will become more dangerous with more scams, gouging, crime rates will rise exponentially against foreigners, envy and jealousy of people with money will kick in and things will get nasty.

 

Those that were prudent and squirreled away money for a rainy day may get through this.

 

Spendthrifts and money-wasters that live hand to mouth are in trouble.

 

Chok dee!

You are not wrong..

[Dumbastheycome]

I find the repetition of statements announcing the obvious re" impact of  C-19 increasingly irritating !

Perhaps the proliferation of such said banalities  ( and desparately intended to be wise enough to guarantee continued employment in that function for an industry that has globally  been reduced  to reminiscence and wishful thinking) need  be  secondary to some viable ideas about how to compensate and  acknowledge that in even the medium term tourism will never be the same.

The illusion of personal financial flexibility in the overall expansionist money go round that was encouraged to support an industry that produced  nothing  other than distraction yet supported  various  Corporate  investments  to it is rapidly becoming  bankrupt.

Already appeals  to protect the interests of a  failing  industry  are being  backed  by tax payer  funded  schemes !

Futile in the face of what used to generate a lucrative tax take despite skimmings.

At the end of the day we are animals which like  any other require at  minimum  food and a secure dwelling.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[scammed]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

When you expose yourself to dependency on foreign income instead of educating the people to move up higher in the value ladders, well, it's a risk you take for limited reward. So don't be surprised when the margin call comes. Somnamnaa.

its practically free money, it would be stupid not capitalizing on the climate thailand has

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, scammed said:

its practically free money, it would be stupid not capitalizing on the climate thailand has

Stupid is doing it in an completely unsustainable way that degrades the life quality of the locals and even more stupid is counting on it to continue. It should be, at best, a bonus side income. Thais are of course not the only ones. Many European cities got far worse with the tourist invaders.

Edited August 9, 2020 by DrTuner

[Donga]

10 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I was in Pattaya yesterday and the beach was empty. It looked pristine.

 

Businesses gone everywhere; boarded up, shut down, for sale and rent, gutted out, entire blocks fenced off...

 

The odd foreigner wandering about, but it was like a ghost town.

 

The party is truly over for anyone involved in the tourism sector. And for the foreseeable.

 

If you are a foreigner with a business in tourism, you should have cut your losses and ran already.

 

Worse to come too, travelling to these areas will become more dangerous with more scams, gouging, crime rates will rise exponentially against foreigners, envy and jealousy of people with money will kick in and things will get nasty.

 

Those that were prudent and squirreled away money for a rainy day may get through this.

 

Spendthrifts and money-wasters that live hand to mouth are in trouble.

 

Chok dee!

A little over the top. My crystal ball sees:

1. Testing to improve for cheaper, faster turnaround.. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

2. More countries will emulate what Dubai and Iceland are doing to encourage tourism

3. Second wave where relevant will subside by end September, certainly Australia and most of Asia be under control

4. Travel bubbles will be formed later this year with less onerous conditions including no quarantine for those coming from safe countries

5. Treatment to become more refined with proven drugs and lessons learnt
6. A couple of vaccines will prove themselves by year end with release early next year to targeted groups. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Tourism to slowly restart later this year and get into swing early next year. In the meantime, domestic tourism will help a little to compensate for the empty streets, which is the off season for much of the international market. It must be a depressing sight in Pattaya nonetheless, and my heart goes out to the poorer folk with limited options.

Edited August 9, 2020 by Donga

[scammed]

7 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Stupid is doing it in an completely unsustainable way that degrades the life quality of the locals and even more stupid is counting on it to continue. It should be, at best, a bonus side income.

tourism is every bit as sustainable as any other industry and improves the life quality of the locals in the way of income.

the only reason it doesnt continue right now is because of a world wide knee jerk reaction

and group think, but soon enough they are going to have to snap out of it

or starvation becomes real

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, sambum said:

Suddenly it is not "every tourist spends 100,000 baht on a 2 weeks holiday"? (Which works out at 200,000 baht for 2!) It's now 2 people spending 69,841 baht - bit of a difference!!

 

And you didn't mention the Covid situation because it IS 100% relevant! In my neck of the woods (which is a tourist area) who do you think are spending money in the restaurants and bars and hotels now that there are no tourists - take one guess, and it's not Thais because most of them have no jobs, or have gone back home.

 

"There are so few of you" Really? From 5 days ago:-

" Tourism and Sports Ministry, Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn, is asking hotels to offer “fair packages to expats and avoid price discrimination”. He said that there are 2 million foreign residents who would be able to travel domestically at this stage and contribute to a local revival of tourism before the borders are re-opened for general tourism."

 

So it would appear that at least the Tourism and Sports Minister realises that expats are of some value at least, so come on, "don't fool yourself", who's keeping the ship afloat at the moment? I would say that the catastrophe is already here, not "upcoming", and expats are keeping more than a few people in work, and contributing a fair bit of money to the Thai economy, and it is a bit "immature" of you to belittle it.

Sorry fella, you are wrong. Expats who work in Thailand form part of the economy, they were likely there before the virus and are likely still there now (maybe). Retiress, pretty much the same, they haven't lost your money because retirees live there. You were spending money before the virus in restaurants and bars, where you can you will be doing that still, so, your presence is pretty irrelevant. The only way you could make a "small" difference is if every single one of you suddenly decided to spend twice as much money each then you normally do, which of course will not happen. You are part of the status quo, and tourists are the incremental, additional income. Face facts, you will not be part of the recovery, you are just part of the economy, the same as a working Thai person is still part of the economy...

[GAZZPA]

18 minutes ago, Donga said:

A little over the top. My crystal ball sees:

1. Testing to improve for cheaper, faster turnaround.. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

2. More countries will emulate what Dubai and Iceland are doing to encourage tourism

3. Second wave where relevant will subside by end September, certainly Australia and most of Asia be under control

4. Travel bubbles will be formed later this year with less onerous conditions including no quarantine for those coming from safe countries

5. Treatment to become more refined with proven drugs and lessons learnt
6. A couple of vaccines will prove themselves by year end with early release next year to targeted parties.

Tourism to slowly restart later this year and get into swing early next year. In the meantime, domestic tourism will help a little to compensate for the empty streets, which is the off season for much of the international market. It must be a depressing sight in Pattaya nonetheless, and my heart goes out to the poorer folk with limited options.

Could be the case but it is the very best case.. I suspect you are a year too early for your predictions. The virus is rampant in the world today, it is spiking not stabilising, there is a long, long way to go before people start going on holiday in any serious numbers.

[GAZZPA]

40 minutes ago, Dumbastheycome said:

I find the repetition of statements announcing the obvious re" impact of  C-19 increasingly irritating !

Perhaps the proliferation of such said banalities  ( and desparately intended to be wise enough to guarantee continued employment in that function for an industry that has globally  been reduced  to reminiscence and wishful thinking) need  be  secondary to some viable ideas about how to compensate and  acknowledge that in even the medium term tourism will never be the same.

The illusion of personal financial flexibility in the overall expansionist money go round that was encouraged to support an industry that produced  nothing  other than distraction yet supported  various  Corporate  investments  to it is rapidly becoming  bankrupt.

Already appeals  to protect the interests of a  failing  industry  are being  backed  by tax payer  funded  schemes !

Futile in the face of what used to generate a lucrative tax take despite skimmings.

At the end of the day we are animals which like  any other require at  minimum  food and a secure dwelling.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Horribly "wordy post" but there is some relevance. I have posted on numerous occasions now but in summary,,, I think a wise step would be rather then throw dead money at propping up the industry that is not going to recover anytime soon it would be better for the government to spend that money more creatively with government projects to improve the countries infrastructure. Roads, public transport, health, building etc,, that way they would be preparing the country for future investment and business and keeping people employed (who of course spend and return a portion back into the state coffers). 

 

They have to do something because it looks like the industry will not show any real signs of recovery this year of next.

[Fex Bluse]

20 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

Horribly "wordy post" but there is some relevance. I have posted on numerous occasions now but in summary,,, I think a wise step would be rather then throw dead money at propping up the industry that is not going to recover anytime soon it would be better for the government to spend that money more creatively with government projects to improve the countries infrastructure. Roads, public transport, health, building etc,, that way they would be preparing the country for future investment and business and keeping people employed (who of course spend and return a portion back into the state coffers). 

 

They have to do something because it looks like the industry will not show any real signs of recovery this year of next.

Great fantasy. They won't do any of that. Because they are corrupt. And Thai culture does not hold them to account. In 50 years, they will have progressed in no meaningful way. 

[Oliver Holzerfilled]

47 minutes ago, Donga said:

A little over the top. My crystal ball sees:

1. Testing to improve for cheaper, faster turnaround.. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

2. More countries will emulate what Dubai and Iceland are doing to encourage tourism

3. Second wave where relevant will subside by end September, certainly Australia and most of Asia be under control

4. Travel bubbles will be formed later this year with less onerous conditions including no quarantine for those coming from safe countries

5. Treatment to become more refined with proven drugs and lessons learnt
6. A couple of vaccines will prove themselves by year end with release early next year to targeted groups. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Tourism to slowly restart later this year and get into swing early next year. In the meantime, domestic tourism will help a little to compensate for the empty streets, which is the off season for much of the international market. It must be a depressing sight in Pattaya nonetheless, and my heart goes out to the poorer folk with limited options.

A lot of smart people with a lot to lose disagree with some of your points.  A few days ago Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said he doesn't see international travel coming back until July 2021.  And he put his money where his mouth is by mothballing much of Qantas' long haul fleet.

 

https://www.aerotime.aero/pijus/25618-qantas-787s-to-be-stored-for-no-less-than-12-months

 

 

 

[Call]

IMO, necessarily not bad for Thailand ????

[Fex Bluse]

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Agree, in fact China owes reparations worldwide.  Look what their Wuhan-19 has done.

They will pay for their Kung Flu biological attack on the world. All major economies are decoupling. Now, China is talking about keeping the economy afloat by domestic circulation which will not work as most of them are poor and conservative. 

 

We will get to see them suffer ????

[SiSePuede419]

Well, duh.

[Donga]

A little over the top. My crystal ball sees:

1. Testing to improve for cheaper, faster turnaround.. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

2. More countries will emulate what Dubai and Iceland are doing to encourage tourism

3. Second wave where relevant will subside by end September, certainly Australia and most of Asia be under control

4. Travel bubbles will be formed later this year with less onerous conditions including no quarantine for those coming from safe countries

5. Treatment to become more refined with proven drugs and lessons learnt
6. A couple of vaccines will prove themselves by year end with release early next year to targeted groups. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Tourism to slowly restart later this year and get into swing early next year. In the meantime, domestic tourism will help a little to compensate for the empty streets, which is the off season for much of the international market. It must be a depressing sight in Pattaya nonetheless, and my heart goes out to the poorer folk with limited options.

 

38 minutes ago, Oliver Holzerfilled said:

A lot of smart people with a lot to lose disagree with some of your points.  A few days ago Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said he doesn't see international travel coming back until July 2021.  And he put his money where his mouth is by mothballing much of Qantas' long haul fleet.

 

https://www.aerotime.aero/pijus/25618-qantas-787s-to-be-stored-for-no-less-than-12-months

Not all my items need to come into play, but there is clearly progress on some fronts. We'll have a better idea in a few months.

Main ones be 2nd wave subsiding and travel bubbles, which were being considered by Thailand before the 2nd wave in a few local countries. Expect they'll resume talks once it subsides and we're beginning to see that in Asia Pacific.

There is mounting pressure for governments to open up. Europe has already opened their borders internally. Fatigue and economic realities are becoming more compelling. Thailand will follow with safe measures - like the faster, cheaper tests already underway.

Australia is nearly as conservative with Covid as Thailand, but expect that will change come Spring. Alan Joyce would rather be negative than positive for a couple of reasons - sympathy and setting expectations. The people at Etihad are taking a very different approach.

There's a lot of positive stuff out there, but mainstream media doesn't cover much of it. They tend to report on the countries that are experiencing spikes, then as they get control, move onto others.

Maybe I am overly optimistic, we'll see.

Edited August 9, 2020 by Donga

[DaftToPutRealName]

10 hours ago, Keesters said:

What good does it do announcing all these figures. What the country needs are plans to recover not doom and gloom prophecies. 

An unfortunate reminder that a society that centers around face will invariably value flashy presentations and "we're doing something, we promise" over actual plans. The more vinyl posters, the better, as far as many are concerned.

[GAZZPA]

49 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

Great fantasy. They won't do any of that. Because they are corrupt. And Thai culture does not hold them to account. In 50 years, they will have progressed in no meaningful way. 

Probably right, I wasn't addressing the likely hood of this course of action based upon the terribly corrupt nature of Thai society. But then again China was terribly corrupt and at their peak growth over the last 25 years, 25% of GDP was government infrastructure development. The corruption involved in that activity actually resulted in over development with empty cities, towns and shopping centres.. So can be done.

[aussienam]

12 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I was in Pattaya yesterday and the beach was empty. It looked pristine.

 

Businesses gone everywhere; boarded up, shut down, for sale and rent, gutted out, entire blocks fenced off...

 

The odd foreigner wandering about, but it was like a ghost town.

 

The party is truly over for anyone involved in the tourism sector. And for the foreseeable.

 

If you are a foreigner with a business in tourism, you should have cut your losses and ran already.

 

Worse to come too, travelling to these areas will become more dangerous with more scams, gouging, crime rates will rise exponentially against foreigners, envy and jealousy of people with money will kick in and things will get nasty.

 

Those that were prudent and squirreled away money for a rainy day may get through this.

 

Spendthrifts and money-wasters that live hand to mouth are in trouble.

 

Chok dee!

Well, if the Prime Minister wanted to consider allowing us poor stranded farang who can't get back into Thailand, instead of ignoring us, we could get back to living and spending our foreign income sources back into Thailand all year long and help prop up a little bit more of the local economies and Thai people who are going bankrupt and destitute.

[GAZZPA]

47 minutes ago, aussienam said:

Well, if the Prime Minister wanted to consider allowing us poor stranded farang who can't get back into Thailand, instead of ignoring us, we could get back to living and spending our foreign income sources back into Thailand all year long and help prop up a little bit more of the local economies and Thai people who are going bankrupt and destitute.

Not nearly enough to make any difference to the economy unfortunately.

 

[3NUMBAS]

year zero of the new dystopian reality that faces patters

[RichardColeman]

What I find funny in TV is the amount of people that are on here criticising the TAT figures but are quite willing to defend the same government covid figures. 

[Stargeezr]

2020 year of Covid, 2021 start of slow recovery after vaccine is proven

effective, and gets produced. 2022 year of recovery. 2023 more recovery if China or someone else

does not have another virus pandemic launched.  That is my

optimistic crystal ball forecast.

geezer

Quote

 

 

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, 3NUMBAS said:

year zero of the new dystopian reality that faces patters

could be, people seem to have forgotten it was already on its backside before the virus... Not sure how many tourists are going to be rushing back. I certainly won't be, one of my friends who usually spends 6 months in Pattaya and 6 months at home decided Cambodia was the better option, he is there now. Another friend of mine has just said he doesn't want to go back anymore because its not what it used to be and it is too much hassle, Spain is his new choice for 3 months of the year. Many of the friends I knew there have left, just a handful remaining. Many people will say I am talking nonsense but i think thats more about not wanting to admit the good old days have gone.