Tourism revenue could plummet over 75 per cent

[shy coconut]

14 hours ago, Deli said:

Newly appointed finance minister can send the bill for damage caused to the commies next door

Laos? I doubt they could afford it.....

[Bangkokazy]

If if fif my aunt has dick, then it's my uncle.
That is the way TAT works.

[chaihot]

I multi-quoted a few posts I wanted to comment on and then lost them. Oh well.

 

Quote

One person talked about how stupid it was to decimate the economy for years when the number of people who died is less than one day of road carnage.  

I couldn't agree more, and that has been one of my arguments.  But, ask a Thai that is not dependent on Tourism what they think -- my wife included -- and the answer is we must prevent the spread at all costs.

 

Quote

Another post commented that it wasn't the current deaths, but what would happen with uncontrolled spreading and an overwhelmed medical system.

That is something I have wondered about; as well as all economists vs scientists.  Interestingly (to me), Thaksin (in the Nation) came out and said the close down was a bad idea.  Fitting I guess, because he is known to be more of a capitalist/business person who would lean away from the shut down.

 

Brazil is the fastest growing Covid hotspot (#2 under USA).  Unofficially, it appears that their policy is "<deleted> it, whatever happens, happens".  History will show whether that was a good idea or not - and whether they are the first to hit herd immunity or not.

 

Another person talked about other things affecting Thailand that doesn't seem to get any traction.

"Officials reported a total of 128,964 dengue fever cases from all 77 provinces in 2019"

" The Department of Disease Control (DDC) ... has revealed the latest number of influenza patients in Thailand from 1st January to 30th November 2019 at 363,837 cases"

 

I realize these are "cases" and not "deaths", but the sheer volume compared to the Covid cases gives pause to wonder whether the shutdowns are really in the best interest of the country.  At least, in my opinion.

 

And finally, back to Thailand tourism.

 

US citizens can travel right now.  But are they??  Of course, we aren't a blip on the radar of Thailand for number of tourists anymore.

 

High season is approaching,  They must do something.  I can't them letting the season pass with no tourism.  But I could be so wrong .... 

Edited August 9, 2020 by chaihot

[impulse]

2 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

Many people will say I am talking nonsense but i think thats more about not wanting to admit the good old days have gone.

 

In 20 years, people will be talking about today being the good old days.  They'll be longing for the days when only 40 million tourists came to Thailand, and there were still some stretches of beach with no chairs if you were willing to walk 100 meters.

 

Just like my grandparents poo-pooed the morality of the '60s and my parents dissed on the morality and over-development of the '70s.

 

[Acrylic]

Maybe this is blessing in disguise. Thailand should move from mass tourism and make things easier for investment. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Acrylic

[GAZZPA]

2 hours ago, chaihot said:

I multi-quoted a few posts I wanted to comment on and then lost them. Oh well.

 

I couldn't agree more, and that has been one of my arguments.  But, ask a Thai that is not dependent on Tourism what they think -- my wife included -- and the answer is we must prevent the spread at all costs.

 

That is something I have wondered about; as well as all economists vs scientists.  Interestingly (to me), Thaksin (in the Nation) came out and said the close down was a bad idea.  Fitting I guess, because he is known to be more of a capitalist/business person who would lean away from the shut down.

 

Brazil is the fastest growing Covid hotspot (#2 under USA).  Unofficially, it appears that their policy is "<deleted> it, whatever happens, happens".  History will show whether that was a good idea or not - and whether they are the first to hit herd immunity or not.

 

Another person talked about other things affecting Thailand that doesn't seem to get any traction.

"Officials reported a total of 128,964 dengue fever cases from all 77 provinces in 2019"

" The Department of Disease Control (DDC) ... has revealed the latest number of influenza patients in Thailand from 1st January to 30th November 2019 at 363,837 cases"

 

I realize these are "cases" and not "deaths", but the sheer volume compared to the Covid cases gives pause to wonder whether the shutdowns are really in the best interest of the country.  At least, in my opinion.

 

And finally, back to Thailand tourism.

 

US citizens can travel right now.  But are they??  Of course, we aren't a blip on the radar of Thailand for number of tourists anymore.

 

High season is approaching,  They must do something.  I can't them letting the season pass with no tourism.  But I could be so wrong .... 

I think you should not fall into the mistake of underestimating how dangerous the virus is. Firstly, no country can possibly be recording accurately, either the number of cases or deaths. Obviously the countries with huge testing will have  abetter picture but they are less then most realise. We do know that the elderley and sick are the most vulnerable at the moment but also bear in mind the virus can mutate. So the best solution does seem on the surface to protect the vulnerable and let everyone else get back to work.

 

One thing I am sure of is it's not a conspiracy as some seem to claim.. It just couldn't be. There are thousands of scientists all over the world tackling the virus, all of them would have to be in on it if the virus was really nothing more then a strain of flu. I watched a documentary about how the vaccine was progressing with interviews with the key people at Oxford University and also over in the states. They were and still are flagging how dangerous it is and how many people will need hospital treatment if countries did not lockdown. 

 

i think the bottom line is people are nervous, nervous about their families, their jobs and what the future holds. The last thing they will be thinking about is a holiday on beach somewhere. So no I dont think anyone is realistically looking at holidays, and they wont be for a long time yet and Thailand opening it's borders will mean diddly to almost everyone. Europe is better, most of Asia, but not Russia, the middle East, USA and South America, and it hasn't started to really fly through the African Nations yet. This is a long road and we are probably not even half way down it yet... 

 

[Andycoops]

Alot of IFs in that statement.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Andycoops
Spelling errors.

[ChakaKhan]

21 hours ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

basket <> all your eggs

Grandpas>Covid    Teeraks Lives Matter!  Joop Joop!...Someone please think of the Sick Buffalo!

[chaihot]

1 hour ago, GAZZPA said:

The last thing they will be thinking about is a holiday on beach somewhere. So no I dont think anyone is realistically looking at holidays, and they wont be for a long time yet and Thailand opening it's borders will mean diddly to almost everyone.

I think this is the best part of your post.  

[thaibeachlovers]

It's always a bad idea to depend too much on variable occupations such as those in the tourist industry. Too many variables that can affect it, eg a virus.

At least there should have been a plan to deal with it eg a fund built up with a 0.5% tax on all occupied beds. That way during the good times enough money would be built up to cushion the downturns.

Of course, no one ever thought the good times would end, did they?

[goonnerone]

On 8/9/2020 at 12:55 AM, Chelseafan said:

This represents a drop of 9 per cent from the previous worst-case scenario forecast for this year of Bt742.5 billion, a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year.

 

So this is a worst case worst case scenario! What about the worst case worst case worst case number?

 

Good to see the TAT back in business throwing random numbers around.

 

 

yes well with <deleted> like this being posted I am not supprised 

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

could be, people seem to have forgotten it was already on its backside before the virus... Not sure how many tourists are going to be rushing back. I certainly won't be, one of my friends who usually spends 6 months in Pattaya and 6 months at home decided Cambodia was the better option, he is there now. Another friend of mine has just said he doesn't want to go back anymore because its not what it used to be and it is too much hassle, Spain is his new choice for 3 months of the year. Many of the friends I knew there have left, just a handful remaining. Many people will say I am talking nonsense but i think thats more about not wanting to admit the good old days have gone.

If I were a new visitor in the past 5 years I'd never have become a regular visitor. LOS has fundamentally changed from the sanuk country of last century.

[ChakaKhan]

19 hours ago, PETERTHEEATER said:

Yes, but there is a squatting charge and its triple for foreigners. Extra for the fishing license and sunshade. No pets allowed. A caddy will be assigned.

Can I pick the caddy???  No pets is fine...Can I set crab traps as its not fishing...squat toilets?

[NoshowJones]

On 8/9/2020 at 7:01 AM, ezzra said:

with no mass vaccination in the horizon at least until mid next year, i think those 75% will be more like 95% at best...

Yes, but everyone knows that tourists and retirees alike were leaving Thailand for good even before the coronavirus. That's what happens when you have unelected soldiers with only Military Academy education attempting to run a country.

[NoshowJones]

21 hours ago, tjo o tjim said:

...just wait until Thailand gets Wave 2 of COVID.

Shouldn't there have been a Wave1 of Covid before there can be a Wave2?

[Fex Bluse]

3 hours ago, Acrylic said:

Maybe this is blessing in disguise. Thailand should move from mass tourism and make things easier for investment. 

Easy to say. Difficult to do. Thailand has a horrid educational system, a terribly corrupt judiciary and constant political instability. 

 

The country is ill prepared to transform itself. And, the Thais can thank their Sino-Thai brethren who run the country as their personal playground and keep the brown Thais impoverished. Oh, and they can thank their Sino-Thai's cousins from China for the rest of their pain. Maybe one day they will wake up but probably not. That pearly colored skin is just too much not to admire.. 

 

As many of us have said for years and years, if the tourists ever stop coming, the country is in serious trouble. And here we are. 

Edited August 10, 2020 by Fex Bluse

[mike787]

Well, DAH!!!!  yeah....since Thailand is closed until 2021++++

[NoshowJones]

19 hours ago, Jack Cook said:

All over for Thai tourism bar the shouting, even the national airline is bankrupt. NEVER going to be even close to what it was in the past.

Not as long as unelected soldiers are attempting to run the country.

[metisdead]

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[wangotango]

No one knows what lies ahead so why bother with these ridiculous predictions !

[mindfulness]

Could plummet 75% ????

 

More like ‘will plummet’ provide the figure at probably 85% unless this global madness based on fear and insanity ! 

[DrTuner]

4 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

Easy to say. Difficult to do. Thailand has a horrid educational system, a terribly corrupt judiciary and constant political instability. 

 

The country is ill prepared to transform itself. And, the Thais can thank their Sino-Thai brethren who run the country as their personal playground and keep the brown Thais impoverished. Oh, and they can thank their Sino-Thai's cousins from China for the rest of their pain. Maybe one day they will wake up but probably not. That pearly colored skin is just too much not to admire.. 

 

As many of us have said for years and years, if the tourists ever stop coming, the country is in serious trouble. And here we are. 

Here's the recipe:

 

- Students revolt and get rid of the usurpers

- Thanathorn takes reigns, steers away from China

- Thailand opens the permanent residency for investors and opens it's arms to one-man-band IT entrepeneurs, "nomads", creating new higher value startups

- .. well that's already pretty much it. Just keep away from mass tourism and the evil siren song of CCP and you're golden.

[Aussie Col]

22 hours ago, Anna Rak said:

Beirut used to be the playground of the rich and famous until the power hungry factions saw a way of filling brown envelopes for themselves, they took some much out of the economy that the currency is worthless and all the normal people have US dollar accounts.

 

Since the devastation of the explosion the other day all the population want the corrupt leaders out of power so they can try and rebuild their country. There could be a day of reckoning coming, and I hope for the sake of Thailand the youth are watching developments.

 

I see many similarities here in the LOS. 

Swap Beirut for Bangkok and that's what could be happening in 6 months here unless people get their jobs back. Zero tourism and a overvalued Baht are destroying Thailand

[DrTuner]

23 minutes ago, Aussie Col said:

Swap Beirut for Bangkok and that's what could be happening in 6 months here unless people get their jobs back. Zero tourism and a overvalued Baht are destroying Thailand

Here's a taste of that:

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/08/middleeast/lebanon-economy-crisis-intl/index.html

Quote

Earlier this year, the World Bank projected that at least 50% of the country would become poor -- up from nearly 30% last October.
As Lebanon entered a Covid-induced lockdown earlier this year, the destruction of the middle class remained largely out of sight, but now, as it reopens, there's no escaping the dystopian scenes of desperation repeated across the country.

 

[kg1947]

Another angle - not offered by TAT & Ministry of Tourism :

2 TIER Exchange rate :  

Special rate for INCOMING TOURISTS , max. exchange about 

USD 2,000.- or equivalent in other currencies @ THB 40.- / USD .

Plus : drop the Quarantine requirement , see how many show up.

I bet by Nov.2020 - Millions and by Jan.2021 - Multi Millions .....

Just a thought ....    

[CANSIAM]

On 8/8/2020 at 10:17 PM, puck2 said:

Thee Immigration office sets then limit for at least :  65,000 THB  into Thailand.

 

On 8/8/2020 at 11:24 PM, Aussie Col said:

Combine this with falling exports and the overvalued Baht and Thailand is really up the creek without a paddle.

They need to let farangs back in with Thai wife's without jumping through hoops and and those with Children ASAP to start the tourist ball rolling again

As well as all the Non O yearly extension holders with healthy amounts of money in their banks....

[CANSIAM]

On 8/9/2020 at 10:21 AM, GAZZPA said:

Not nearly enough to make any difference to the economy unfortunately.

 

Its a positive start......

[CANSIAM]

On 8/9/2020 at 5:50 AM, MRToMRT said:

The stranded retirees are still offering to come back and do their bit. 

Its been a mistake that the retirees are still overlooked.....

[Airbagwill]

On 8/9/2020 at 11:47 AM, RichardColeman said:

Considering Thailand has - if testing all the dead and hospital staff - only tested about 0.4% of the rest of the population, your argument about uSA and UK figures seems mute. How many of the 25,000 road deaths tested positive for covid ? No, that;s right, we'll  never know

the figures that matter are deaths per capita (e.g. 100k) and excess deaths.

To work out the numbers infected by simply counting is not possible without blanket testing. However it is perfectly feasible to get a general picture using stats available - even figuring in the vagaries of stat collecting in various countries.

[warcy]

Even though the economy is bad, but prices of almost everything is still high. Food remains cheap.