Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand could be as low as 6 million in 2021, warns TAT

[Cake Monster]

1 hour ago, GinBoy2 said:

Worse than that, a lot of those two week millionaires are probably unemployed, they just don't know it yet.

 

When all the various furlough, stimulus schemes across the West end, wait to see how many businesses shut up shop and the subsequent tsunami of real unemployment.

 

Regardless of whether Thailands borders are open, fights are available, I doubt many people are going to be focussed on a vacation in Thailand.

Roof over their head, food on the table is going to be the first priority

Good Post.

This, as Ginboy2 has said, is probably going to be the " new norm " well into 2022.

And lets not forget, most of the Government subsidy schemes here in Thailand end very soon, so Domestic Tourists will also be taken out of the equation, as will Domestic spending to drive growth.

[sammieuk1]

Everyday I'm shut out is less money for this regime is my only comfort ????

[Dialemco]

The correct number is Zero so sorry for many Thais who have lost everything and now destitute

[american2]

As to why tourists would like to come back soon.  Thailand is one of the countries that has had minimal Covid 19 cases.  If you were in a country that had major cases continueing, a trip to Thailand even with a two week Quarantine might make sense.  That is if you could get a long term Visa (not currently available).  

[crazykopite]

They won’t even get 6 million unless they abandon all the restrictions imposed . I’m looking forward to the baht hitting 80 to the £ ????????????

[fred110]

6 million Chinese! ????

[Isaan sailor]

Double whammy—Wuhan-19 Virus and a constantly rising Baht will assure even greater foreign tourist losses.

Ditto for Thai exports.

[realfunster]

20 minutes ago, Saint Nick said:

Yes, all good and nice!

What people like you seem to overlook - very conveniently - is that fact, that a bunch (as in A LOT!) of people are dependent on tourism!

From the seasonal workers, to the small street vendors, to the small shops and market stall in the holiday destinations...

Tourism is not only the idiots at TAT or the rascist Anutin or some out-of-touch hotel chain!

It is millions who are working directly or indirectly for and with tourists!

But, yeah...**** them, I say!

True enough but Thailand has taken the path of least resistance (as usual) and simply massively ramped up tourism numbers for two decades (10m->40m) with little or no regard to sustainability or a cohesive tourism strategy. It is questionable whether the additional millions of Chinese package tourists add significantly to the local economy or whether this money is siphoned back offshore. Whatever the exact figures it appears commonly understood in the global tourism  industry these kind of mass tourists add comparatively less value to an economy compared to other groups whilst causing massive infrastructure strain.

 

Quite frankly as well, many places had become unpleasant to visit. I am sure we all saw the pictures of thousands upon thousands at Maya Bay. Indeed, there is also a belief in the industry, that mass market tour groups are intrusive and actually irritate other travelers, who then go elsewhere.

 

I watched an interesting YouTube video yesterday (by Doug Lansky) discussing a tourism strategy shift in the Caribbean related to managing mass market and cruise ship traffic. A lot of these issues and concerns could easily be applied to Thailand...

 

A serious rethink of both the tourist market strategy (whether voluntary or covid enforced) and a parallel review of the overall economy might bring reasonable benefits to Thailand in the medium term. 

[Percy P]

2 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Fairly meaningless mumbo jumbo figures with the single piece of truth in there that numbers are going to be very low, regardless of when the border does open. The tourist industry is not going to see meaningful business any time in the near future.

But we're are tourists to go in Asia. I consider Thailand not a risky place. The places I would avoid are the UK, America,Australia, European countries .Thailand should put a bar on people coming from risky countries. "Welcome to Thailand"

[Jiggo]

Watch the prices go sky high for flights, hotels, entertainment including girls as they all try to recoup their losses, with less choice for the customers.  

[Puchaiyank]

The tourism industry was already in trouble before the virus hit the world.  Corrupt business practices, expensive tourist venues,  unsafe boating, lack of policing these activities,  government viewed as draconian and immigration hassles have all contributed to a negative image of Thai tourism.

 

Many will NEVER come back!

[Percy P]

2 hours ago, swampdonkey said:

They seem to think people are camp outside airports already waiting on flights to resume.

tourism may never be the same again 

You'll be surprised. I have no fear of being here in Thailand. Just be careful and think. If your kissing a girl with CV ! well.

[Sonny Karlsson]

This government deserve a Hughe  drop in tourism, as Being so hostile and discriminating to western (read farans);people. Just feel sorry for the thai people loosing their Jobs. 

[agood1963]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

TAT’s ‘medium case scenario’ would see foreigners returning in the third quarter (especially during European school holidays). This scenario sees TAT predict approximately 12.5 million tourists.

You says they want to come to Thailand keep dreaming TAT , if they are that good at predicting can i have the lottery numbers for the 16th of August please TAT .

[CMNightRider]

I think the only tourists who will show up when Thailand opens their borders will be the Chinese low budget tourists.  When you view travel youtube videos, Thailand is only mentioned as one of the countries to avoid.  

[Xonax]

2 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

People are waiting for the borders to open. We have a number of bookings from visitors who want to get out of their own country for a break and in warmer weather.

However, reality is that they will have to cancel those bookings as the borders are unlikely to open this year.

So that´s why it is impossible to find reasonable (for expats retired in Thailand) priced vacations in December. When you finally realize, that you need to cancel these "dummy" bookings, it will probably be too late to get new bookings.

[Percy P]

37 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said:

As I hear from relatives and friends back home in good 'ole Europe, the weather is hot and the summer vacation is in full swing. People are out in droves, spending their holidays at regional places that they have shunned for years in favor of long-haul destinations. And everybody seems to be entirely content about it.

 

Albania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Montenegro

Sardinia, Sicily, Corsica

Portugal

the Balearic Islands

the Spanish "costas"

the Italian Adriatic coast

 

They all can be quite comfortably reached by car, train or - in the case of the islands - short ferry hops.

There even are quick flights again to the Canary Islands, Greece and its Aegean archipelagos for a few euros per person, saving not only a seemingly endless 12-hour journey but also spending an arm and a leg on a long-haul ticket.

Importantly, the price levels at many European destinations either are absolutely on par with Thailand or even considerably cheaper (e.g. Albania, Bulgaria, Montenegro).

Infrastructure is generally good, most hotels are spotless... and there are no rubbish dumps behind the next sand dune at the dream beach.

You don't risk life and limb by taking a simple taxi or hopping on a mini bus.

Service is friendly and courteous and doesn't reek of fake smiles.

Double pricing practically does not exist and everybody pays the same entrance fees to tourist attractions, museums, natural parks, etc -- regardless where they hail from or what their skin color is.

 

Once the Europeans have "rediscovered" how beautiful, diverse and thoroughly affordable their own holiday destinations actually are, Thailand will have an even harder time to entice them back in any meaningful numbers.

 

The country now of course has the unique opportunity to overhaul, restructure and adjust its entire tourism industry from the ground up to make it attractive for long-haul travelers again. But as I know the Thais, they are going to miss that chance in favor of keeping pursuing the "same old".

 

Once the country opens up again, Thailand will primarily have to be content with regional travelers. But the gravy train from Europe --- it is NOT going to depart anytime soon under the prevailing circumstances. 

100% what you say. Thai authorities,immigration must come up with a different approach and attitude and stop from putting obstacles in the way to come here. 90 day report, where do yo live ,change of address , more then 24 hours out of the province.ect.

[DrTuner]

48 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said:

Importantly, the price levels at many European destinations either are absolutely on par with Thailand or even considerably cheaper (e.g. Albania, Bulgaria, Montenegro).

Price was one of the driving factors when people flocked from Europe to Thailand. Now that they'll notice euro prices are often cheaper, especially wine, they'll switch to Europe as destination. Which I think is a very good thing. So many lovely places and cultures there.

[smudger1951]

Currently, here in UK we have specified countries to travel to and self quarrantine measures on return are at home. A compromise at least we can adjust and better than complete closure.

[geisha]

The real shock will come this October / November. At the moment it’s summer here in Eu, and lots are enjoying the local beaches, eating in the garden , and the real hardship hasn’t hit home. Don’t forget a huge portion of income comes from home tourism. When the autumn is here and many businesses close down , lots of bankruptcies, people getting laid off work, then everyone will be tightening their belts. Already I hear from neighbors that they won’t be able to make it through winter. Travel agencies here are either closed, or dealing in weekends away and local travel. International flights have been largely cancelled, and for example, British tourists are driving the 20 hours and plus to get to the south of France, Italy, Spain, etc. We expect from October on , tourism Will dwindle to a stop.  Thailand is just another country that will loose out. Those who are solid might ride it out another year. Unfortunately , the shanty towns that pass for the holiday destinations of Thailand , might just crumble away if the Thaî government just sit back making useless predictions and doing nothing to make their country attractive to future tourism. It reminds me of the tourists that visit the favelas of’Rio , to see how the locals live. Exotic, no. 

[Rockbottom]

Why does the TAT insist on leaking speculation after speculation to the press on a daily basis?

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has forecast how many foreigners it expects to visit the country in 2021.

T.A.T should stay quiet in it's ivory bubble tower and stop making useless forecasts every few days just to keep their jobs justified.

[mr mr]

1 hour ago, klauskunkel said:

The TAT and its numbers, trying desperately to look relevant...

"No please, don't shut us down, we have many more numbers to give: 3.78, 42659001, -1/5, 177km/hr (sorry, wrong number from different story)..."

8765309

[Percy P]

2 minutes ago, smudger1951 said:

Currently, here in UK we have specified countries to travel to and self quarrantine measures on return are at home. A compromise at least we can adjust and better than complete closure.

Yes but the horses have already been let out of the stables. To late and to little UK highest death rate in Europe.

[TKDfella]

The only reason that TAT officials come out with figures etc is to keep their own jobs from evaporating. Their 'in-boxes' must be empty and they're probably scared that the big boss will walk in and tell it's redundancy time...metaphorically speaking.

[ronaldo0]

Wishful thinking . Unemployment around the world plus high prices for flights , accommodation and poor exchange rate don’t make it a desirable place for several years ! Think they have problems now just wait 6-12 months and the islands will look like a wasteland.

[Xonax]

24 minutes ago, agood1963 said:

You says they want to come to Thailand keep dreaming TAT , if they are that good at predicting can i have the lottery numbers for the 16th of August please TAT .

6 million tourists based on the model that Covid 19 will be over and forgotten by 1. November 2021.

12.5 million tourists based on the model that Covid 19 will be over and forgotten by 1. July 2021.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Xonax

[Percy P]

16 minutes ago, CMNightRider said:

I think the only tourists who will show up when Thailand opens their borders will be the Chinese low budget tourists.  When you view travel youtube videos, Thailand is only mentioned as one of the countries to avoid.  

I'm in Thailand locked down at the moment having a wonderful time.I can only hope the lock down continues . Australia's locked down until 2021 and it's got a good chance of being extended until 2022 .

[madmitch]

I posted this on a thread a cople of days ago

 

I suppose the TAT statistician(s) have to do something but it surely is a total waste of time coming up with figures based on nothing but hypothesis and guesswork.

 

Just as relevent to this thread. I promise I won't post it any more though!

[gerritkaew]

good,, back to basics.