Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand could be as low as 6 million in 2021, warns TAT

[Dialemco]

6 minutes ago, Percy P said:

I'm in Thailand locked down at the moment having a wonderful time.I can only hope the lock down continues . Australia's locked down until 2021 and it's got a good chance of being extended until 2022 .

Lucky you have money others doubt

[Call]

That´s good news! Good guys in, bad guys out ????

 

[Percy P]

2 hours ago, skorp13 said:

Even if they open i can't see the two week millionaires coming back to spend their entire time in quarantine

what's two week if you here for six months. People with money who come here want peace and quiet.With a 14days lockdown they have it.

What is this life if full of care. To have no time to stand a stare. No time to stand beneath the boughs and stare as long as the sheep and cows. " leisure "

[shackleton]

Reading the replies on here its not giving much confidence for the future 

  to the foreign owners of bars restaurants ect in places like Pattaya Hua Hin of future business except depending on  those Farangs already here

Looks like Its going to be a long wait for tourists 2021 ?

[dallen52]

Underneath all this there's still the question of the 10s of thousands of people like myself who made Thailand a home.

And they have removed the path of return to that home and the family there.

I gave Thailand my all, but it's starting to feel like a betrayal of the trust on their behalf...

 

Many are already leaving the hope of return to that home ever again. ????

[Werner Mayerhoffer]

Thailand has a very low infection rate, if the figures are true. I cannot see a reason why not open the borders again and Manage the epidemic like other countries do. If isolation is needed, then the guests own hotel or house would be efficient enough. A government arranged accommodation is not acceptable. I spend 4 months every year at the cost of about 8000 pounds but unless stipulations change, I will spend it elsewhere, especially as some Thais don't want dirty forangs anyhow. 

Dirty?..... There is more dirt in the back of Thai houses then anywhere in the world. 

W. Mayerhoffer 

[Chongalulu]

2 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

People are waiting for the borders to open. We have a number of bookings from visitors who want to get out of their own country for a break and in warmer weather.

However, reality is that they will have to cancel those bookings as the borders are unlikely to open this year.

I assume from that you have a hotel ? Any financial commitment behind those bookings? Or is it something of what i term a ‘dreamers comfort booking' ?...in other words makes them feel better they’ve got a holiday booked but no penalty for not actually going. You’re correct that in any case the borders most likely remain closed, but even if they do open you’re then in competition with far too much supply chasing a much reduced demand and you find those bookings evaporate in favour of cheaper deals or air fares that have become prohibitive . I know the thai mentality of increasing prices when facing lower demand but that simply won’t wash in a desperate situation. I empathize with anyone in the tourist business but I think an awful lot are simply going to disappear for good when the money runs out and the liabilities rear their ugly head. 

[Brickbat]

I love it! Thailand without grubby tourists is a dreamland. Now for the baht to take a bath...couldn’t get better.

[Dialemco]

7 minutes ago, Werner Mayerhoffer said:

Thailand has a very low infection rate, if the figures are true. I cannot see a reason why not open the borders again and Manage the epidemic like other countries do. If isolation is needed, then the guests own hotel or house would be efficient enough. A government arranged accommodation is not acceptable. I spend 4 months every year at the cost of about 8000 pounds but unless stipulations change, I will spend it elsewhere, especially as some Thais don't want dirty forangs anyhow. 

Dirty?..... There is more dirt in the back of Thai houses then anywhere in the world. 

W. Mayerhoffer 

You are the low spending tourist not wanted in Thailand

[Chongalulu]

2 hours ago, gamini said:

It's  utter stupidity for any country to rely so much on tourism for their income. Sri Lanka was a good example, its tourist industry was doing exceptionally well and then there was a virtual civil war. The government needs to completely rethink its tourist policy and branch out into other means of creating employment. The unemployed in the tourism business will just have to find jobs in construction and agriculture. There seems to be a shortage of employees in these sectors. Thailand was doing pretty well before its tourism took off.  In my opinion mass tourism of the kind that Thailand has experienced is detrimental to the environment and many other things. Same can be said of Nepal.

 

Tourism suits a country with poor educational (PISA educational tables)and technical skills . Those unskilled workers do not have transferable skills and the country’s export business (including agriculture) is under threat from cheaper more amenable surrounding countries- Thailand had the worst growth rate of all ASEAN countries prior to Covid. There is an underlying deep rooted problem and domestic construction is only underpinned by an expanding healthy economy. That will largely have evaporated. Thailand should long ago have addressed its educational and skills shortcomings,the latter which will take almost a generation to solve. The outlook is not great.

[DogNo1]

After a conversation with a doctor this afternoon, I now understand that hospitals in Thailand could easily be overwhelmed.  I think that the next step should be to admit people with long-term permission to stay, gradually.   

[Jack Cook]

Too much loss of face to just tell the truth - Tourism = GAME OVER.

[Senior Player]

1 hour ago, Percy P said:

Yes but the horses have already been let out of the stables. To late and to little UK highest death rate in Europe.

Factually incorrect. Belgium has the highest Covid-19 death rate per 100,000 of the population in Europe. Admittedly, the UK is second followed closely by Spain, but that's most likely due to the over-counting of Coronavirus as the cause of death on death certificates by PHE rather than the actual cause. As I'm sure you're well aware, anyone who tests positive for the virus and later dies is counted as a death. However, scientists have claimed this does not present a true picture as someone could die from a non-related illness but still be counted within the Coronavirus death total. This has been the practice right from the start, all the way up to August 6th until a recent review. Plus, the Spanish government is still not able to say exactly how many nursing home residents have died because of the coronavirus, according to a Health Ministry report. It's clear that there are vast discrepancies in the way that European countries count and report Coronavirus deaths, so I wouldn't be so quick to demonize the country yet. 

 

As of 24th July, Britain had carried out more Coronavirus tests than any other European country at over 200,000 per day — including 2.6 million more tests than Germany. Even with such high testing rates, Britain is now reporting fewer Coronavirus cases than many European countries. Britain now has only 9.6 cases per million vs the EU’s average of 12.5, and is well below France and Spain’s record. 

 

What does any of this prove? Quite frankly, I believe it means Coronavirus is now part of our disease spectrum and will always be there to catch in future. Some will have built an immunity towards it by already having had it, and others will still be susceptible. Not that that means one is going to die from it just because you've caught it. The majority will just have mild symptoms.

 

Only recently the BBC reported that in the Mumbai slums 57% have had COVID-19 with 1-in-1000 to 2000 mortality rate — which is the same as seasonal flu. The big question is: did the world overreact? We have to be grown-up and realise that 1,500 people die every day in the UK before Coronavirus and that’s an unfortunate reality.

 

Oh, and here's a free bit of grammar advice for you: it's "too late and too little" not "to late and to little". ????

Edited August 10, 2020 by Senior Player

[tribalfusion001]

31 minutes ago, DogNo1 said:

After a conversation with a doctor this afternoon, I now understand that hospitals in Thailand could easily be overwhelmed.  I think that the next step should be to admit people with long-term permission to stay, gradually.   

I believe this is true aswell, all of the countries in SE Asia that are locked are for the same reason, health service won't be able to cope with a large outbreaks.

[Mavideol]

they do paint a grim/dreary picture of future tourist business, wonder why keep seeing many new hotels being built

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, Zikomat said:

The worst case scenario is 0 tourists in 2021. It is also the most probable one.

if that's the case then better get ready for a (another) military coup,

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, Rockbottom said:

Why does the TAT insist on leaking speculation after speculation to the press on a daily basis?

what else do you expect them to do, they are bored,  no tourists to hassle 555

[Raphus]

6 million tourists. What all of you are forgetting. That was the tourist count until March 28th !!! There are NO MORE...

These figures they are posting are historical, NOT forecast !!!!

Thailand is ruined now, they have dug their own grave. I am very surprised. 

Remember an army has to follow orders. So all the subordinates just say YES SIR... So if those in power are s@it scared of dying from another form of strong flu, then it will never change.

[Benmart]

TAT tries to stay relevant in an industry that is only kept alive by their periodic and irrelevant news flashes.

[scammed]

4 hours ago, sahibji said:

these are tough times for all the countries as tourism is interdependent and until most countries recover from the pandemic.

and more importantly, recover from the self imposed economic suicide as a 'cure' from covid

[Isaan sailor]

2 hours ago, Sonny Karlsson said:

This government deserve a Hughe  drop in tourism, as Being so hostile and discriminating to western (read farans);people. Just feel sorry for the thai people loosing their Jobs. 

Proud to be your first responder and thumbs up.  Welcome aboard.

[Clarkey611]

5 hours ago, redwood1 said:

TAT should lay off the SangSom.....If the borders do not open 6,000,000 is a pipe dream...

Or a 100 Pipers!

[connda]

90% of Thais don't want dirty foreigners coming to their clean country.
What part of rolling up the welcome mat is hard to understand. 

"Come to beautiful, clean, Covid-free Thailand.  Quarantine in luxury for 14 days - then - get out!  We don't want you here dirty foreigner.  And take your dirty foreign expats that have been here for years too!  They still dirty like you which is why even though they stay here for many, many years, we no allow them to run in marathon, or go to some restaurant, or go to some wat, or ride on some buses.  All foreigners dirty.  Anutin tell us so.  We no want you here.  Go home!" 

<In Farangland:  "I know honey.  Let's go to Thailand!">  Not.

[3NUMBAS]

thats being very optimistic too ,600k more likely

[JimGant]

Thailand and New Zealand came out as the only countries that are 'covid free' amongst places anyone would want to go -- my apologies to Fiji. Take into consideration that there are over 42 million American retirees, many of whom live in affluent retirement communities, and whose cruise line adventures and other getaway routines have been cancelled. I would imagine Europe has a similar situation. Do you think these well-to-do folks, whose incomes haven't been affected at all by corvid, are not chafing at the bit for a little travel? And given the opportunity to visit Thailand, don't you think they'd really consider it (dual pricing and 90 day reporting would be outside their meaningful consideration)?

 

But not if there was a two week quarantine upon arrival (even in the Oriental). But what if they come up with a near instantaneous test for corvid that is effective, which can be administered at the airport before boarding your flight -- and which would preclude quarantine? How close are we to that? Don't know. But I do know that, should such a test become available, a corvid free Thailand would become a tourist magnet.

 

You would think such a test would be easier to develop than a vaccine -- so maybe the glass is (or will be) over half full for Thailand's economy.... Let's hope.

[MarkyM3]

My motivation for returning is to see my fiancee (I'm in UK, she BKK). Otherwise I'd be giving Thailand a wide berth for the forseeable.

 

I have given up on a further 4 week visit this year (May visit was cancelled) and have been targeting an extended 6 months in the region from end of Feb next year. I'm willing to jump through all the hoops to get us back together - C19 test, quarantine etc.

 

If the Thai government has any sense, they'll accept people like me who need a tourist visa and are willing to meet all the medical requirements. Also, that they won't try and enforce further stupid restrictions around freedom of movement - if you have completed the medical requirements then that should be that.

 

But I expect the reality is the vast majority of potential tourists are 2 or 3 week visitors and they aren't going to come back anytime soon if quarantine is a requirement. And also if they are herded into certain areas. 

Edited August 10, 2020 by MarkyM3

[baansgr]

I predict the tourist numbers from January 1st onwards will be the same end of year as they were mid march..and then Mid march 2020 to March 2021...zero

[3NUMBAS]

55 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

they do paint a grim/dreary picture of future tourist business, wonder why keep seeing many new hotels being built

the need to launder dirty money ?? from vice and narcotics ?

[Searat7]

2 hours ago, Rockbottom said:

Why does the TAT insist on leaking speculation after speculation to the press on a daily basis?

Either they are doing this at government direction or they are trying to get the government to realize the severity of the situation unless they make some changes.

[Aussie Col]

3 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

Six million?

 

Yeah, right.

 

How are they going to get here?

6 million is very very optimistic even if they open up the borders.

At this moment in time people are booking holidays and Thailand isn't on their radar and once these tourists who use to come to Thailand see how far their money goes in other countries they won't be coming back here any time soon.

Basically this shows that the soldier boys don't know how to run a country on a business level.

Thailand is heading into a winter of discontent with probably riots on the streets by those who have lost their jobs because of the inept soldier boys trying to run a country.