Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand could be as low as 6 million in 2021, warns TAT

[Jumbo1968]

12.5 million Tourist in the European School holidays, where are they going to quarantine them ?

[Aussie Col]

13 minutes ago, MarkyM3 said:

My motivation for returning is to see my fiancee (I'm in UK, she BKK). Otherwise I'd be giving Thailand a wide berth for the forseeable.

 

I have given up on a further 4 week visit this year (May visit was cancelled) and have been targeting an extended 6 months in the region from end of Feb next year. I'm willing to jump through all the hoops to get us back together - C19 test, quarantine etc.

 

If the Thai government has any sense, they'll accept people like me who need a tourist visa and are willing to meet all the medical requirements. Also, that they won't try and enforce further stupid restrictions around freedom of movement - if you have completed the medical requirements then that should be that.

 

But I expect the reality is the vast majority of potential tourists are 2 or 3 week visitors and they aren't going to come back anytime soon if quarantine is a requirement. And also if they are herded into certain areas. 

Zero chance of that happening mate. Men married to Thai Ladies can't even get a visa if they are overseas.

[Aussie Col]

Just now, Jumbo1968 said:

12.5 million Tourist in the European School holidays, where are they going to quarantine them ?

They won't be coming. It's as simple as that. They won't want to spend 2 weeks in quarantine.

Thailand is up the creek without a paddle with the Junta in charge.

[Aussie Col]

1 hour ago, Senior Player said:

Factually incorrect. Belgium has the highest Covid-19 death rate per 100,000 of the population in Europe. Admittedly, the UK is second followed closely by Spain, but that's most likely due to the over-counting of Coronavirus as the cause of death on death certificates by PHE rather than the actual cause. As I'm sure you're well aware, anyone who tests positive for the virus and later dies is counted as a death. However, scientists have claimed this does not present a true picture as someone could die from a non-related illness but still be counted within the Coronavirus death total. This has been the practice right from the start, all the way up to August 6th until a recent review. Plus, the Spanish government is still not able to say exactly how many nursing home residents have died because of the coronavirus, according to a Health Ministry report. It's clear that there are vast discrepancies in the way that European countries count and report Coronavirus deaths, so I wouldn't be so quick to demonize the country yet. 

 

As of 24th July, Britain had carried out more Coronavirus tests than any other European country at over 200,000 per day — including 2.6 million more tests than Germany. Even with such high testing rates, Britain is now reporting fewer Coronavirus cases than many European countries. Britain now has only 9.6 cases per million vs the EU’s average of 12.5, and is well below France and Spain’s record. 

 

What does any of this prove? Quite frankly, I believe it means Coronavirus is now part of our disease spectrum and will always be there to catch in future. Some will have built an immunity towards it by already having had it, and others will still be susceptible. Not that that means one is going to die from it just because you've caught it. The majority will just have mild symptoms.

 

Only recently the BBC reported that in the Mumbai slums 57% have had COVID-19 with 1-in-1000 to 2000 mortality rate — which is the same as seasonal flu. The big question is: did the world overreact? We have to be grown-up and realise that 1,500 people die every day in the UK before Coronavirus and that’s an unfortunate reality.

 

Oh, and here's a free bit of grammar advice for you: it's "too late and too little" not "to late and to little". ????

Also as well take into account how many people have been tested in them countries compared to Thailand

[Aussie Col]

2 hours ago, Werner Mayerhoffer said:

Thailand has a very low infection rate, if the figures are true. I cannot see a reason why not open the borders again and Manage the epidemic like other countries do. If isolation is needed, then the guests own hotel or house would be efficient enough. A government arranged accommodation is not acceptable. I spend 4 months every year at the cost of about 8000 pounds but unless stipulations change, I will spend it elsewhere, especially as some Thais don't want dirty forangs anyhow. 

Dirty?..... There is more dirt in the back of Thai houses then anywhere in the world. 

W. Mayerhoffer 

Thailand has a very low infection rate because they don't test people to a great extent.

[1duckyboy]

Six million people minimum waiting to be in quarantine for two weeks upon arrival. They must love Thailand mak, mak.

[Boedog]

With all the road carnage on Thai roads they are finally going to get hit by the Karma bus, you reap what you sow your double pricing over charging and corruption at all levels of Government, Police, Immigration is about to bite you in the <deleted>. If they only cared about there Citizens and there environmental well being instead of there brown envelopes. RIP 

[MarkyM3]

27 minutes ago, Aussie Col said:

Zero chance of that happening mate. Men married to Thai Ladies can't even get a visa if they are overseas.

Yeah, I know that's the situation at the moment. Just hoping the economic pressures become sufficient by next year that they have to  relax that stranglehold. If someone is willing to pay for it all, as I am, and they want visitors - then it's a win-win, surely. But of course doesn't mean anyone in the Thai govt will see it that way while they mess up people's private lives. 

 

Talked to a platonic ladyfriend in Bangkok last week. Another person who is fed up with the Thai govt's approach and wants some relaxation of the approach (she doesn't work in the tourist industry but has done). Told me the owners of several businesses I've used (no, not soapies etc) are struggling to afford the rent anymore due to lack of business. 

Edited August 10, 2020 by MarkyM3

[DrTuner]

45 minutes ago, JimGant said:

Take into consideration that there are over 42 million American retirees, many of whom live in affluent retirement communities, and whose cruise line adventures and other getaway routines have been cancelled. I would imagine Europe has a similar situation. Do you think these well-to-do folks, whose incomes haven't been affected at all by corvid, are not chafing at the bit for a little travel?

Both US and EU have a lot of fine domestic destinations. People have forgotten about them when long haul travel became "the thing". It's a good deal for both economies that share common values and the environment in general if people travel less and of they do, short haul only. 

 

Which leaves Thailand with the bulk bottom of the barrel Chinese.

[Letseng]

5 hours ago, sahibji said:

these are tough times for all the countries as tourism is interdependent and until most countries recover from the pandemic.

In Europe a lot of tourism revenue is generated from staying in your own country which many didn't do in the past. Our town is as crowded as it was last year when we had all the M.E. & Asian travellers. 

[Caldera]

It could be as low as zero if they don't reopen the borders at some point (to foreign tourists, that is). A bit premature to talk numbers at this point!

 

[Percy P]

6 hours ago, skorp13 said:

Even if they open i can't see the two week millionaires coming back to spend their entire time in quarantinem

Splendid. Two week of isolation what could be better

[steven100]

more dart board numbers in the office   ......    crazy guys  

[Blumpie]

And now we see they are preparing Thais for stage 2 of the tourism disaster:  There will most probably be no tourists in 2021 either.  It's a slow thing, and dullards who cannot handle the truth need to be broken in slowly.  The propaganda machine slowly starts now, and these silly news stories will continue to trickle out tickling ears.  

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed. 

[Sametboy2019]

There will be people who come and stay 3 months who will be willing to do the 2 week quarantine

[Percy P]

6 hours ago, Daveyh said:

It's gonna be a lot worse than they are forecasting .................. recovery too will take years to return to previous levels. If Thailand survives all this & the tourist industry recovers fully too it'll be the "eighth wonder of the world" ............ just my opinion. It'll be a mediocre recovery, slow & painful  ........ the golden goose has long gone ........ fact.

Out of darkness cometh light. 

It's for your benefit that the country survives the situation. What do you want , eople to get poorer because that will be the situation. No tourists many places would have to shut down. 

[GinBoy2]

30 minutes ago, Letseng said:

In Europe a lot of tourism revenue is generated from staying in your own country which many didn't do in the past. Our town is as crowded as it was last year when we had all the M.E. & Asian travellers. 

Interesting you say that.

 

We live in South Dakota, close to Mt Rushmore. There is an RV Park just down the road from us, and I've watched it fill up throughout the summer.

 

It would seem that a lot of folks have re-discovered the beauties of their own country and the outdoor experience.

 

The national parks here, Rushmore, Black Hills, Badlands are starting to report increased attendance.

[warcy]

Best case scenario only at start of next year 2021?

 

They should really start a travel bubble as soon as possible before more people die of hunger or suicide.

 

USA has 5 million cases, Thailand numbers is insignificant and catching the virus doesn't mean death for sure.

Edited August 10, 2020 by warcy

[Keyser Soze666]

Repeatedly seeing how obsessed this country is with tourism just makes you realise what a mickey mouse country it really is. Has this country ever produced or invented anything of note other than possibly the bum gun? All it's known for is beaches, spicy food and hookers. This is a place for holidays, not for living in.

[Percy P]

6 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Its right under their noses for the current situation, the expats living here can contribute to the Thai economy as much as, if not better than the Thai's, but at what discounts we talking, you know when things get tough, the tough get going, and the survival of the fittest will prevail.

 

Have money, willing to spend it to go on holidays, or sit it out, up to them. ????

 

The whole ballgame has changed since Covid, we know that, but do they, e.g. a twin room in a 3 star cost 956 baht for Friday 21st August, Saturday is 1,605 baht wouldn't it be better to have a single rate right across the board under the current situation, i.e. 1,000 baht per night all week, hotels don't pay penalty rates, so if they adopted a single room rate for the whole 7 days, I would imagine their hotels would be fuller over the weekends, you don't have to be Einstein to know that, and when the pandemic is over, they can go back to the normal rates, i.e. charging an extra 60% for the Saturday night, but not in the current situation as many are sitting on their golden eggs like me.

 

But why increase the rate at all. First come first served. Shop owner's are open week ends ,but they don't charge more for their items.

[mrfill]

I only need 9.3m to complete my TAT bingo card for a full house....

[localhost]

I don't understand the  panic. Russia said before last week, it will release a vaccine within next two weeks. So let's wait until end of this week when they start to send it out.

[Owiee]

One of the issue as l see it, will be the world wide financial situation. Assuming all borders open in 6 months, which is doubtful, there are not many who will have funds to travel and those that might have a disposable income will most probably not wish to head overseas for some time. My uneducated guess would be very low numbers of tourist for at least 2-3 years. 

[Rockbottom]

17 minutes ago, localhost said:

I don't understand the  panic. Russia said before last week, it will release a vaccine within next two weeks. So let's wait until end of this week when they start to send it out.

But only 800 people would take part in stage III trials.  There are 25 potential Covid vaccines in clinical trials. The Russian trial stage III is a much smaller sample size compared to others in the thousands. Beware! The Russians are obviously looking for another Sputnik moment by expediting this trial to compete against the rest of the world. 

 

The early indication with the Moderna vaccine stage III developed in the US is RCT participants 18-55 years old encountered significant side effects (but apparently not severe enough to stop the trial): headaches, chills, fatigue, muscle pain and pain at the injection site.

[hioctane]

It is pointless to “guestimate” when nothing (almost nothing) is open internationally worldwide. Ask the question again when international borders open up without limits. On the contrary, I think there will be a pent up demand for international travel.

[BigStar]

1 hour ago, Keyser Soze666 said:

Repeatedly seeing how obsessed this country is with tourism just makes you realise what a mickey mouse country it really is. Has this country ever produced or invented anything of note other than possibly the bum gun? All it's known for is beaches, spicy food and hookers. This is a place for holidays, not for living in.

Yeah, it seems to have joined the league of mickey mouse countries along with Britain, a country notable for having invented the Art of Whinging, later perfected with the addition of the Sneer.

 

Disaster threatens Britain's tourism regions as people stay away

 

My fave mickey mouse country, though, is mickey mouse Italy. While the Brits' claim is totally legit and universally recognized, Italy's always made that spurious claim to have invented spaghetti, when everybody knows they stole the idea from the noodles Marco Polo brought from China.

 

'We have no visitors now, none': Italy's tourist towns suffer under coronavirus lockdown

Edited August 10, 2020 by BigStar

[localhost]

four weeks ago the bitish coasts were crowded with people without masks. same in Mallorca or Berlin.

 

And still there is no huge infect rate. 

 

We have that flu death year by year.

[BigStar]

1 hour ago, warcy said:

They should really start a travel bubble as soon as possible before more people die of hunger or suicide.

How many have done so already?

[Oliver Holzerfilled]

40 minutes ago, Rockbottom said:

But only 800 people would take part in stage III trials.  There are 25 potential Covid vaccines in clinical trials. The Russian trial stage III is a much smaller sample size compared to others in the thousands. Beware! The Russians are obviously looking for another Sputnik moment by expediting this trial to compete against the rest of the world. 

 

The early indication with the Moderna vaccine stage III developed in the US is RCT participants 18-55 years old encountered significant side effects (but apparently not severe enough to stop the trial): headaches, chills, fatigue, muscle pain and pain at the injection site.

Side effects pretty much identical to the Shingrix vaccination I got about 3 weeks ago.  That being said I would prefer not to get a covid vaccination if enough people were willing to do so before me in enough numbers to drive down infection rates.