Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand could be as low as 6 million in 2021, warns TAT

[adammike]

8 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

Worse than that, a lot of those two week millionaires are probably unemployed, they just don't know it yet.

 

When all the various furlough, stimulus schemes across the West end, wait to see how many businesses shut up shop and the subsequent tsunami of real unemployment.

 

Regardless of whether Thailands borders are open, fights are available, I doubt many people are going to be focussed on a vacation in Thailand.

Roof over their head, food on the table is going to be the first priority

There is speculation in the newspapers that the over 50s who lose their jobs in the aftermath of Covid19 may never work again,that's a big portion of the Pattaya demographic.

[Rockbottom]

The highest unemployment rate was in 2001 @ 5.7%. Even during the financial crisis of 1997, unemployment remained below 1%. The following year it surged to 3.4%.

 

As of March 2020, the current rate is 1%. It all depends on how the Thai Gov't handles the border issue going forward, but if they wait too long they may be looking at 10-12%. That will put an unprecedented big hurt on Thai people and families. 

Edited August 10, 2020 by Rockbottom

[Lucifer999]

Thailand will pay a steep price for its corruption and unfair immigration laws and its purposeful culling of its expat population over the past few years ... hope im wrong, but it looks like the culling of the expats was to prepare for covid false flag we have today ... Georgia guide stones ... masonic disorder ... 

[AndrewMciver]

10 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Fairly meaningless mumbo jumbo figures with the single piece of truth in there that numbers are going to be very low, regardless of when the border does open. The tourist industry is not going to see meaningful business any time in the near future.

 Teflon Thailand (as it's often called) may well achieve growth when this pandemic is over.

 

China's economy is growing, thus Thailand's major market (although ethically and morally this would be horrendous) may well come back. 

 

One thing for sure European numbers will be down. 

[black tabby]

Is Thai Government really planning to end national blockade policy in December this year?

If so, they are going to have to do away with the current restrictions such as:

 

1-Coronavirus-free certificate issued within 72 hours before airline c/in for the flight to Thailand.

2-Mandatory travel insurance with $100000- cashless hospital care deal.

 

Not every country in the world issues C/virus free  clearance.

Not every country has travel insurance with cashless hospital treatment deal.

Cashless deal is the kind of scheme  with which the clients do not have to make any up-front payment when they are treated at hospitals   while in the destination country.

 

I don't believe they can hardly regain their reputation as the popular easy-to-visit destination as long as they got the above 2 codes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 10, 2020 by black tabby

[Jumbo1968]

23 minutes ago, AndrewMciver said:

 Teflon Thailand (as it's often called) may well achieve growth when this pandemic is over.

 

China's economy is growing, thus Thailand's major market (although ethically and morally this would be horrendous) may well come back. 

 

One thing for sure European numbers will be down. 

After living in Pattaya for 5 years and currently waiting to return there has been a decline in European Tourists in that time, some who I spoke to normally stayed for 2/3 months now only 1 month.The exchange rate plus other destinations was the main reason plus the immigration laws, it will take forever to attract them back.

[GinBoy2]

1 hour ago, Rockbottom said:

The highest unemployment rate was in 2001 @ 5.7%. Even during the financial crisis of 1997, unemployment remained below 1%. The following year it surged to 3.4%.

 

As of March 2020, the current rate is 1%. It all depends on how the Thai Gov't handles the border issue going forward, but if they wait too long they may be looking at 10-12%. That will put an unprecedented big hurt on Thai people and families. 

It's very hard to gauge what real unemployment figures are, since so much of it is not recorded.

 

Go to any city, town or village and probably 20-30% don't have a real job. Maybe seasonal work, cutting sugar cane, rice, but nothing that equates to a real job.

 

I think the employment rate they quote is only based on those that have actually have paid income tax, and a huge portion of the population don't even get close to paying income taxes 

[Rockbottom]

5 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

It's very hard to gauge what real unemployment figures are, since so much of it is not recorded.

 

Go to any city, town or village and probably 20-30% don't have a real job. Maybe seasonal work, cutting sugar cane, rice, but nothing that equates to a real job.

 

I think the employment rate they quote is only based on those that have actually have paid income tax, and a huge portion of the population don't even get close to paying income taxes 

Agreed. Same could be said of tourist revenue lost based solely upon compiled data from the revenue dept. Even reported income is often fictitious. Thais usually have two acct. records (actual vs. reported).

[daveAustin]

Surely, worst case is no millions.

Thailand is possibly going to get left behind here as Vietnam will end up pulling a flanker while the junta dithers. But, that is what they want of course, a totally sterile, boring state... anything to shake off that debauched image. 

Edited August 10, 2020 by daveAustin

[Pique Dard]

in my opinion, things don't add up! while the thai government whish or want masstourism back, i've got the impression xenophobia is increasing in the country, generally speaking.

[tribalfusion001]

I was watching a livestream from a Pattaya beer bar earlier and one of the comments was no tourists until start of 2021. Asian tourists first in time foe Chinese new year, westerners later in the year. It's just what I read, fact or fiction, no idea.

[kiwikeith]

14 hours ago, sahibji said:

how right you are swampdonkey.

Expect a run on long distance Microlights.

[facer]

12 hours ago, Percy P said:

I'm in Thailand locked down at the moment having a wonderful time.I can only hope the lock down continues . Australia's locked down until 2021 and it's got a good chance of being extended until 2022 .

and then they came for me ????

[Oliver Holzerfilled]

56 minutes ago, facer said:

and then they came for me ????

Yes.  This pandemic has shown many predictions to be wrong and it may just be getting started.  The I'm alright Jack crowd may yet be in for a nasty surprise.

[4MyEgo]

10 hours ago, Percy P said:

But why increase the rate at all. First come first served. Shop owner's are open week ends ,but they don't charge more for their items.

The only problem there is that shop owners usually have many products to sell to get their cash flow, whereas hotels only have one product usually, i.e. their rooms and of course they have more staff, reception, kitchen, room cleaners, maintenance and need to lift their rates on weekends, public holidays to make up for the less occupancy rates during the weekdays, and such investments require a rate on return, that said a lot will eventually fold unless the borders open up soon, that said, I think some income in the interim is better than no income or waiting and hedging your bets for rooms to be fully occupied on weekends/public holidays, in other words, they need to drop their pants, I mean rates to be a single rate to entice people to either go during the week by also providing something like a package, e.g. 7 days for 7,000 baht, as opposed to 956 baht per night and then 1,605 baht on Saturdays and Sundays, i.e. 6,692 Vs 7,990 a 16.25% reduction overall. The 998 saving in the package could be used on breakfast, either way it's an enticer.

[Laughing Gravy]

I do enjoy getting my daily comedy of laughs reading the TAT figures each day.

I wonder how they magic up these numbers. Do they shuffle the cards and pick one each.  Either way besides the fact that they continually embarrass themselves and give me a huge laugh, they are worthless, inconsistent and factually incorrect.

 

They would be better just keeping quite and saying something based on fact and not speculation. Although they just can't seem to help themselves.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Laughing Gravy

[actonion]

 Is this stuff written to try to boost   the Thai business owners into positive thinking, knowing full well  its not  true

[ChipButty]

28 minutes ago, actonion said:

 Is this stuff written to try to boost   the Thai business owners into positive thinking, knowing full well  its not  true

We all know it's not true

[CrunchWrapSupreme]

21 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

A reality bomb is about to hit Thailand and chaos and discontent will be openly violent on the streets in the coming 6 months

A battle between the hi and lo-sos is imminent, much like what was seen on the streets of Chicago yesterday, and across America in recent months.

 

I've seen more beggars at the BTS stations. I've been hearing more stories of lost jobs, repoed vehicles, shuttered businesses, and increasing debt. I've had to help family members buy groceries. While this is going on, I've also seen the BKK malls packed with the other end of the spectrum. Bags stuffed with brand name clothes, new iPhones, and large screen TVs, being carried out to late model cars.

 

When I first came to Thailand, what struck me was this noticeable contrast. I soon asked my future wife about it. She said, some people think they actually deserve it, while others are angry about it, but just ignore it. I figure that sort of thing can only continue for so long.

[BigStar]

6 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I do enjoy getting my daily comedy of laughs reading the TAT figures each day.

I enjoy getting mine from the TAT: TVF responses to the TAT figures and imagined claims. Having no figures of their own, members typically make up some TAT assertion and then attack that with the usual barrage of sneers. 

 

6 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

They would be better just keeping quite and saying something based on fact and not speculation. Although they just can't seem to help themselves.

Huh? Speculation and exaggeration is the coin of this realm. Trying to shutdown TVF are you?

[BigStar]

25 minutes ago, CrunchWrapSupreme said:

While this is going on, I've also seen the BKK malls packed with the other end of the spectrum. Bags stuffed with brand name clothes, new iPhones, and large screen TVs, being carried out to late model cars.

Incredible! No shopper has ever been seen by any of our ace TVF Mall Analysts in Pattaya at any time, even Christmas. Please recommend your optometrist.

[Aussie Col]

17 hours ago, Sametboy2019 said:

There will be people who come and stay 3 months who will be willing to do the 2 week quarantine

Try getting a 3 month visa even if you have family here.

[Laughing Gravy]

6 hours ago, BigStar said:

I enjoy getting mine from the TAT: TVF responses to the TAT figures and imagined claims. Having no figures of their own, members typically make up some TAT assertion and then attack that with the usual barrage of sneers. 

 

Huh? Speculation and exaggeration is the coin of this realm. Trying to shutdown TVF are you?

Oh bless you are one of those who can't take any form of feedback. I guess you are an apologist.

 

Please tell me how accurate the TAT are and how great their predictions have become.

 

Do you work for the TAT or government or you really do have your head in the sand.

 

Come on tell us all what will happen, today tomorrow, next week, next year. It seems you are mighty upset. I guess the truth hurts.

 

 

[rickudon]

Forgetting the guesses at how many tourists their will be, what does bare consideration is WHEN international tourism might start again. Already been one TAT spokesperson who has admitted unlikely this year, now it looks more like they consider one more whole year before it begins. 

Implications? Very few international tourist dependent businesses will last until then. Most employees will loose their jobs. Jet ski operators will turn to armed robbery (and hopefully pay the price!). Poverty and Civil unrest a near certainty. Economic emigration will probably increase. Knock on effects? hard to even contemplate.

[outsider]

On 8/10/2020 at 2:11 PM, darksidedog said:

Fairly meaningless mumbo jumbo figures with the single piece of truth in there that numbers are going to be very low, regardless of when the border does open. The tourist industry is not going to see meaningful business any time in the near future.

 

Especially not with their continued, xenophobic anti-foreigner rant. Might have a few visits from those still drawn to their low-rent go-go bars and cheap-trick massages but by and large, I don't think foreigners are straining to break through the turnstiles the moment Thai borders reopen.

 

[fred110]

27 minutes ago, outsider said:

 

Especially not with their continued, xenophobic anti-foreigner rant. Might have a few visits from those still drawn to their low-rent go-go bars and cheap-trick massages but by and large, I don't think foreigners are straining to break through the turnstiles the moment Thai borders reopen.

 

Maybe the Chinese will come.

[248900_1469958220]

On 8/10/2020 at 2:20 PM, RichardColeman said:

So, the reality is 75% drop in tourism this year, and near 80% next year, that's a loss of about 70 million tourists and near 4.5 trillion baht based on their figures. 

 

A reality bomb is about to hit Thailand and chaos and discontent will be openly violent on the streets in the coming 6 months

I have been wondering when the penny is going to drop....seems at the moment everyone is in limbo...calm before the storm. If there is not high season this year, and it looks that way....What the heck is going to happen? Roll on next year and things may be no better. I forsee trouble brewing, its already started. Are we about to see the sh** finally really hit the fan here??? Its been brewing for years but is this the real catalyst?

[mike787]

Try 6 Thai people, not 6 million foreigners. 

[3NUMBAS]

100,000 have signed up for UK vaccine trials and they need more as there  6 to try out