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Covid-19 vaccine 'will be out in 6 months'

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Posted (edited)

Pharma companies are making huge profits.   US government is already buying vaccines before they are tested and proven - that allows the pharma companies to mass produce while they test.  If the vaccine is not effective or safe, the pharma company does not lose money (maybe they sell to some country which doesn't care)

 

Also, lets look at how many people take a flu shot.  In Austria, only about 8% of the population gets an annual flu vaccine.  In 2020, the government is really pushing for people to get vaccinated and expect 80% of the population to comply.  Imagine, your revenue increases tenfold.

In the USA, about 40% get the vaccine - and probably 80% will in 2020.... double revenue is not bad either.

Just flu vaccines alone will be a huge windfall for pharma.

Then add the money made from Covid vaccines that many people will get as soon as it is out to be able to travel anywhere.  

Life is good when you are in Pharma!

Edited by Miami007
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16 hours ago, aussienam said:

Hmm, let's base a policy of lock-down on the supposition that a vaccine 'will' be available in the near future..  A government lock-down policy based on 'hope'.  I don't know everything about economic prudence, but to cause the most severe shutdowns of economies in modern history based on hoping a vaccine will become available, seems rather irresponsible and extremely risky. 

 

It is a bit like using a casino to determine the outcome for an economy.  Using an analogy, let's improve the odds at least and use something like 'Black Jack' where at least there is some probabilities that can be computed to determine a possible outcome (card counting).  However, there is still a real possibility the house (virus) wins and you walk away broke.  Is fiscal economic responsibility based on hedging bets on a successful vaccine?  I believe not.  

 

Yes, there are promising phase 3 trials.  But we also need to look at the past results for vaccine trials - in particular SARS viruses.  We need to realise that there has never been a vaccine for previous SARS viruses (but yes, there was nowhere near the level of investment and research to find a cure).  One vaccine that comes to mind caused narcolepsy in patients.  Not a good thing to suddenly lose consciousness at random times.  No more driver's licence for you.   

Not saying this will occur again.  Some people do get very defensive at the thought that there won't be a successful vaccine.  A bit like the toilet paper panic brigade.  They become extremely aggressive and defensive.  Maybe I will be called a 'Nazi' for suggesting there may not be a cure!  

 

I know Russia has reportedly rolled out in advance a phase 3 vaccine and started administering it, but this is perhaps a risky move.  Long term health complications could well occur.  But, I am not a scientist.  I am sure Russia 'knows' what they are doing? Hmm, ... Chernobyl and Dubrovka theatre in Moscow comes to mind.  

 

The other very real issues is that depending on who 'may' discover a vaccine first will determine how fast that vaccine is rolled out.  Some countries may be hesitant to roll out the vaccine without using it as a monopoly.  Others will be more humane and do everything in their power to distribute it ASAP.  I don't have to mention which countries would be using the vaccine as an 'ace card'.  

 

In any case, it is estimated that it would reportedly take an estimated 18 months for a global roll out without 'roadblocks' in the way.  I would consider that a realistic time frame.  

 

In the 'new norm', I dare say that visa applications would need to have an accompanying 'vaccine certificate' and a negative COVID19 result.  And there are still unknowns as to whether the potential vaccine/s will need to be re-administered, due to mutation of the virus (such as the usual mutation of seasonal influenza), as currently there are several different mutated strains of COVID19 already.  

 

Furthermore, since we have had SARS, MERS and now COVID19, there is a very real possibility that there will be further SARS viruses that will spread via zoonotic transfer due to the continual poor hygiene, wet markets and illegal trade and consumption of wildlife species.  COVID19 is just one of potentially many other pathogens existing in animals that will be inevitably spread by irresponsible populations.  This will result in further pandemics causing mass deaths.  

 

The Spanish flu was contained 'somewhat' due to a less frenetic form of globalisation.  These-days as so blatantly evident from what stemmed from 'ground zero' (Wuhan), a virus can spread extremely fast.  

 

 

 

probably one of the most rational posts about Covid I have read since March!  Glad that there are some realistic and sane people left! Spot on!

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but didn't Russia announce they had it sorted already     !

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20 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Declaring that most countries can achieve something that no country managed for SARS or MERS seems premature.

Putting a seriously optimistic timeline on it too.

While I hope it turns out that way, or even one genuine vaccine arrives, I suspect it might be a bit longer than 6 months before there is enough to go around.

There have been no cases of SARS since 2004. Why would you need a vaccine for something that has already disappeared off the face of the earth (and only ever killed 770 people)? MERS kills less than 200 people every year so again, there's no massively overwhelming impetus for a vaccine. Having said that, the Oxford University MERS vaccine (which their CoVid-19 vaccine is based on) is currently undergoing human trials in Saudi Arabia, having come through all the previous development stages with flying colours.

 

Based on the production totals already committed to by manufacturers, there will be billions of doses of vaccines available by the end of this year and billions more next year. Unfortunately we don't know yet if any of those vaccines will be proven safe and effective but if it turns out they are, the doses should already be available.

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19 hours ago, xtrnuno41 said:

Already red they tested it in Brazil. The biggest concentration is USA, so why not test it there?

Seems like Brazilian lives dont matter? You maybe lucky to get the right medicine or otherwise...?

I don't know about any of the others, but the Oxford University and Modena candidate vaccines are undergoing phase 3 testing on tens of thousands of people each, in the USA. The Moderna vaccine trial involves 30,000 people in the US and the Oxford trial aims for 50,000 participants worldwide (it's also being tested in the UK, Brazil, South Africa and India).

 

Oxford, Moderna vaccine phase 3 trials

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19 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Or do I get the Vaccine with its 80% Adverse Reaction rate, the one that has killed 5 people so far in the trials ? What a predicament".

This is categorically untrue. No person has died in any CoVid-19 vaccine trial and only a tiny proportion of the participants have had anything other than the usual mild adverse reactions you trend to get with any vaccination (muscle soreness, low grade fever, minor fatigue and headaches).

 

Those that did were a grand total of four people who had two injections of the highest dose of the Moderna vaccine that was tested (which is why the trials are done with varying amounts of the vaccine, to establish the safely tolerated dosage). All four recovered from their symptoms (fever of over 102°F) within 24 hours.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

I don't know about any of the others, but the Oxford University and Modena candidate vaccines are undergoing phase 3 testing on tens of thousands of people each, in the USA. The Moderna vaccine trial involves 30,000 people in the US and the Oxford trial aims for 50,000 participants worldwide (it's also being tested in the UK, Brazil, South Africa and India).

 

Oxford, Moderna vaccine phase 3 trials

 The experimental mRNA-1273 vaccine works by injecting a small sample of COVID-19's genetic code into patients. The amount is enough to encourage a response from the immune system,  neutralising antibodies were found in the first eight people who took part in early safety trials. However, of the eight none were over the age of 50. There is no current information of  phase 3 trails covering age or testing on people with other existing conditions.. 

 

As most terminal patients to CV19 are over the age of 50 AND have pre existing conditions it would be logical to trail it on those demographics most likely at risk to see if there is any underying issues.. not that i can see them trailing it on unhealthy people and thats the rub... they are the ones most at risk and the highest death rate by far... if someone is on existing medications how would it/ could it react or interact with the vaccine, what other side affects might  it set off etc etc. The variables to me seem insanely high to roll out as safe... just cos big pharma says its cool whilst having total immunity to any prosecutions  dosnt somehow fill me with comfort

 

 

 

 

Edited by englishoak
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1 minute ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

This is categorically untrue. No person has died in any CoVid-19 vaccine trial and only a tiny proportion of the participants have had anything other than the usual mild adverse reactions you trend to get with any vaccination (muscle soreness, low grade fever, minor fatigue and headaches).

 

Those that did were a grand total of four people who had two injections of the highest dose of the Moderna vaccine that was tested (which is why the trials are done with varying amounts of the vaccine, to establish the safely tolerated dosage). All four recovered from their symptoms (fever of over 102°F) within 24 hours.

Thanks, I only tend to believe the negative stuff when a link/source is provided and if I feel it is credible then I will make a decision based on that, e.g. weapons of mass destruction (my foot).

 

Too easy to get confused with misinformation in today's world of technology being at people's hand to spin whatever they want and press the send button.

 

Ah the good old days when it was just newspapers, few conspiracy theories and my head was in the sand, just the way I like it 🙂

 

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17 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

When I was a kid in the UK back in the 50s it was perfectly normal to immunise us against various illnesses. No-one died or suffered anything other than mild adverse reactions. Maybe those who say they don't trust vaccines and will refuse them didn't enjoy the benefit of them as I did and are therefore wary of them. When so much medical knowledge and science is put into developing them, I find that strange.

Lets see, in the the US vax makers are immune from being sued for side effects, deaths etc. Now why would that be? In fact the government, via the tax payer,  has paid out billions to people for adverse effects. Seem to recall similar in the UK? Don't read much about that in the media do we...

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16 hours ago, DefaultName said:

How is Thailand going to test this?

 

They give some people the vaccine and some a placebo.

Then they let them loose in a country that doesn't have Covid in the general population.

 

So, nobody gets the virus, the vaccine works!  Or does it?

 

The only way that I can see is to let the testers mingle with people who have it, like those in quarantine and accept that some may die.  I'm certainly not volunteering for that.  🥶

 

They could of course accept the testing done in countries where the virus is loose, but somehow I can't see the Thai government doing that, "face" again.

 

Perhaps someone medical can enlighten me on this.

 

There's nothing in the article about Thailand being involved in testing. The phase 3 trials that are currently underway are mostly being held in countries with high levels of infection, such as the US, Brazil, South Africa and India.

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7 minutes ago, Rancid said:
17 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

When I was a kid in the UK back in the 50s it was perfectly normal to immunise us against various illnesses. No-one died or suffered anything other than mild adverse reactions. Maybe those who say they don't trust vaccines and will refuse them didn't enjoy the benefit of them as I did and are therefore wary of them. When so much medical knowledge and science is put into developing them, I find that strange.

Lets see, in the the US vax makers are immune from being sued for side effects, deaths etc. Now why would that be? In fact the government, via the tax payer,  has paid out billions to people for adverse effects. Seem to recall similar in the UK? Don't read much about that in the media do we...

As far as I am concerned, those who irrationally refuse to accept a vaccine and then develop Covid should not receive treatment. Those who refuse to help themselves should receive no help from others.

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2 hours ago, Miami007 said:

Just flu vaccines alone will be a huge windfall for pharma.

Then add the money made from Covid vaccines that many people will get as soon as it is out to be able to travel anywhere.  

Life is good when you are in Pharma!

Did you click on the link at the bottom of post #112, here is an extract and I have also heard this from other countries.

 

In April, the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca announced an agreement to produce a billion doses of the vaccine. They agreed to sell the vaccine at cost, to make it as widely available as possible.

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4 hours ago, steven100 said:

but didn't Russia announce they had it sorted already     !

According to the news now it's been used on a 'select few' who all claim no side effects and a rise in covid antibodies but it's not for general use yet until stage 3 trials are completed.

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