DDC says two virus cases found in Japan might have originated in Thailand

[ttrd]

2 minutes ago, alyx said:

or not if the tests failed to show the correct result. 

... as unlikely as that they should have been infected in the plane on the way to LOS - but by all means the possibility is there even if it is small ... 

Edited August 12, 2020 by ttrd

[vermin on arrival]

7 minutes ago, ttrd said:

RE - Did they both quarantine 14 days when arriving in Thailand, or could they by any chance both have brought the virus with them from Japan?

 

* As it's told, they have been in LOS for a period of 3 weeks and the incubation time is max 2 weeks so with that fact in mind they have contracted the virus in Thailand ... 

They quarantined. Just like the case I mentioned above in Taiwan.

[naryan]

Thailand cheats at every thing and every one knows it, you can not fail your exam's, this is all to do with losing face! For me cheating is fake and has no benefits because I know if I'm cheating and thats what matters to me. Cheats never prosper.

[Older bolder]

No testing No coronavirus do do testing all over Thailand will have coronavirus simple....????

[Mavideol]

3 hours ago, DoctorG said:

I think this is true of NZ too. 102 days without a recorded positive and they now have 4 cases. It shows that the virus is around with very many asymptomatic  people just going about their business, until they encounter somebody with a low tolerance.

it appears in NZ the virus was brought in by some goods delivery ship

[Caldera]

"The first case is a 24-year-old Thai construction worker who returned home on July 7 and went back to Japan on August 1, where he was found to be infected, Dr Suwannachai said."

 

I'm a bit surprised to read such a report. So this construction worker went through all the trouble to secure a repatriation flight to Thailand and spend 14 days locked up in state quarantine, only to travel back to Japan 10 days after being released from quarantine?

 

I don't buy that Thailand has eliminated the coronavirus, so I'm not surprised that it's seen as a possibility that he got infected while in Thailand.

 

I think one reason why neither Thailand nor its neighbors seem very eager to open the land borders is that they would all find plenty of cases imported from supposedly virus-free neighboring countries. That would shatter the illusion.

[Trujillo]

"Professor Carl Heneghan, Director of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, provides a bracing corrective, indicating that at lower prevalence of the virus, “sensitivity” and “specificity” of the testing gets less precise.

 

You start first with the “sensitivity” of the test: the proportion of people who test positive out of those who actually have the virus. The second is “specificity” which is the proportion who test negative, out of those who should indeed have done so. The true specificity and sensitivity of the prevailing tests are not known, admitted to by the UK’s Office for National Statistics, owing to the newness of the virus, a tripwire shared globally.

 

Let us take the Professor’s operating theater of the UK and assume 1,000 people have the virus, say, .1% (current actual estimates are lower, hovering around 0.04%). Now, say, 10,000 random people go get tested. So, 10 people will have it at the 0.1% infection rate, and 9,990 will not. Estimates tell us 80% of those who have the virus test positive, says the Professor (easily corroborated), this is the “sensitivity” and the “specificity” for those who test negative may be as high as 99.9% with the best (rare) tests.

So, on this basis, eight people will be correctly identified, and two will receive a false negative.

 

Of the 9,990 that are actually negative, all but 10 will be correctly diagnosed as “negative.” But 10 will be told they have COVID-19 when they actually don’t. That gives us 18 positive tests; eight from those who have it, and 10 from those who don’t. So only 44% of the infections indicated are real. Hence, we have to say, alarmingly, the chance of accurately detecting the disease being less than 50% is fairly glaring.

 

This isn’t hypothetical, as current viral levels are lower than the above case study. The US Centers for Disease Control kits concede they can generate up to 30% false positives! With the top tests costing upwards of GBP 100 per test, developing countries necessarily opt for more affordable options, with tests where specificity could be as low as 95%.

Then in the 10,000 test scenario, there would be 500 false positives among the eight genuine positives, so the false positives would far outstrip the genuine results, providing an appearance of a “surge” in infections that seems mystifyingly disconnected from numbers of hospital admissions and deaths.

 

So, if at low prevalence, with false positives rising at the same time actual infections plummet, then even if COVID-19 completely disappeared (the aspired to promised land), then even with no actual positives, on the above example, ten people would be wrongly diagnosed as positive, and the official data would obstinately still show a 0.1% prevalence of COVID-19! Off the current testing regimes, we may be incessantly chasing a shadow, and we may endlessly perpetuate panic and social and economic meltdown over a veritable phantom as a result."

 -- Omar Khan via Medium.com

 

[Anton9]

22 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

it appears in NZ the virus was brought in by some goods delivery ship

Yeah sure, like the salmon in China

[digger70]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

DDC says two virus cases found in Japan might have originated in Thailand

So He says , maybe low level infection doesn't show in the Tests.

Could've had low level infection Coming to Thailand

The Wuhan Flu is Staying with us Same as any  Other Flu .

[fraggleRock]

Meanwile 73 people died on the roads today, 100s died of cancer and other conditions... yup shut everything down as people tested positive from an unapproved test method... probably as reliable as the utterly flawed PCR test... no test exists for COVID 19... <deleted> they are testing if possible for a flu they maybe had 5 years ago... what a complete shamdemic... wake up folks ...

[steevjee]

Negative test Thai style.....

cheap Chinese digital thermometer held close to forehead shows temp under 37, .... next!!

[Miami007]

6 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

These cases along with news reports in Italy as well as at least one other country highlight how widespread the Virus just might be here in Thailand but without testing here no one will ever know.  If this is truthfully what's occurring then I wait with baited breath for the other shoe to drop.

The virus is probably widespread. But as most people have no or only mild symptoms,  nobody will ever realize the full extent. 

Just shows that opening borders wouldn't do much harm...

 

Btw, do you have a link to the reports in Italy?

[Patjqm]

4 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

100% true. It is here to stay until there is a vaccine. I hope Thailand doesn't do the panic buying stuff that New Zealand is going through, that will be a disaster for people who live day to day and week to week...

The chance that therebis a good working vaccine is very small...this virus has already 100 mutations... as with influenza we will have ro live with it..

[Dumbastheycome]

39 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Yeah sure, like the salmon in China

The connection of covid-19  to salmon in China was related  to the preparation surfaces in the  market  of Imported salmon ! Not  "Chinese"  salmon.

[Miami007]

54 minutes ago, Caldera said:

"The first case is a 24-year-old Thai construction worker who returned home on July 7 and went back to Japan on August 1, where he was found to be infected, Dr Suwannachai said."

 

I'm a bit surprised to read such a report. So this construction worker went through all the trouble to secure a repatriation flight to Thailand and spend 14 days locked up in state quarantine, only to travel back to Japan 10 days after being released from quarantine?

 

I don't buy that Thailand has eliminated the coronavirus, so I'm not surprised that it's seen as a possibility that he got infected while in Thailand.

 

I think one reason why neither Thailand nor its neighbors seem very eager to open the land borders is that they would all find plenty of cases imported from supposedly virus-free neighboring countries. That would shatter the illusion.

If every country has the virus inside, how would opening borders to neighboring countries make a difference?

Wouldn't the internal infections be enough?

It seems that no country believes the reports of their neighbors but believes that they have no virus (eg Vietnam)

[Polaky]

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

it appears in NZ the virus was brought in by some goods delivery ship

Could also be birds, they can fly great distances, has anyone ever bothered to test birds? Or any other animals?, surely it is not being transmitted by humans only.

[DrTuner]

"Got it in the aeroplane", right?

 

Of course there are cases in Thailand. It didn't just suddenly disappear. No biggy as long as they are of the old D614 stock and even if they aren't, people are so easily spooked now they'll social distance by 500m if they think there's a leper walking among them.

 

This end of the world is a bit boring. Roll in the next.

[Miami007]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The U.S. is a huge country, both in population and geography... There is no one CV trend covering the whole country. What there are are mini trends that vary widely from state to state and region to region at any given time. Nationally overall, the rate of new infections and deaths has been mostly static lately, continuing at about 50K+ cases and 1000+ deaths daily.

 

But within that national picture, there have been significant spikes in cases and deaths during the past month has been mainly concentrated in Southern states, including several large ones like Florida and Texas where Republican governors followed Trump's push to reopen quickly and resisted things like statewide mandatory mask requirements. And now they and their sick and dying citizens are paying the price for their science and medicine ignoring delusions.

 

 

 

 

In Miami I see people wearing masks at all times except when exercising. Why need a government to tell you what to do.

But Miami still has highest number of cases in the state.  Most transmissions happen at home.

 

Florida has fewer deaths than New York.  Or California.. let's not make it about the party of the governor. 

Nobody talks about the BLM protests in late May and early June. 2 weeks later a surge in cases... 

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Trujillo said:

"Professor Carl Heneghan, Director of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, provides a bracing corrective, indicating that at lower prevalence of the virus, “sensitivity” and “specificity” of the testing gets less precise.

 

You start first with the “sensitivity” of the test: the proportion of people who test positive out of those who actually have the virus. The second is “specificity” which is the proportion who test negative, out of those who should indeed have done so. The true specificity and sensitivity of the prevailing tests are not known, admitted to by the UK’s Office for National Statistics, owing to the newness of the virus, a tripwire shared globally.

 

Let us take the Professor’s operating theater of the UK and assume 1,000 people have the virus, say, .1% (current actual estimates are lower, hovering around 0.04%). Now, say, 10,000 random people go get tested. So, 10 people will have it at the 0.1% infection rate, and 9,990 will not. Estimates tell us 80% of those who have the virus test positive, says the Professor (easily corroborated), this is the “sensitivity” and the “specificity” for those who test negative may be as high as 99.9% with the best (rare) tests.

So, on this basis, eight people will be correctly identified, and two will receive a false negative.

 

Of the 9,990 that are actually negative, all but 10 will be correctly diagnosed as “negative.” But 10 will be told they have COVID-19 when they actually don’t. That gives us 18 positive tests; eight from those who have it, and 10 from those who don’t. So only 44% of the infections indicated are real. Hence, we have to say, alarmingly, the chance of accurately detecting the disease being less than 50% is fairly glaring.

 

This isn’t hypothetical, as current viral levels are lower than the above case study. The US Centers for Disease Control kits concede they can generate up to 30% false positives! With the top tests costing upwards of GBP 100 per test, developing countries necessarily opt for more affordable options, with tests where specificity could be as low as 95%.

Then in the 10,000 test scenario, there would be 500 false positives among the eight genuine positives, so the false positives would far outstrip the genuine results, providing an appearance of a “surge” in infections that seems mystifyingly disconnected from numbers of hospital admissions and deaths.

 

So, if at low prevalence, with false positives rising at the same time actual infections plummet, then even if COVID-19 completely disappeared (the aspired to promised land), then even with no actual positives, on the above example, ten people would be wrongly diagnosed as positive, and the official data would obstinately still show a 0.1% prevalence of COVID-19! Off the current testing regimes, we may be incessantly chasing a shadow, and we may endlessly perpetuate panic and social and economic meltdown over a veritable phantom as a result."

 -- Omar Khan via Medium.com

 

Correct, the Bayesian dilemma:

 

[BernieOnTour]

According to my understanding, that CLEIA test in Japan is not necessarily giving an indication of people being sick.

 

The CLEIA test is a serological test for the antibodies IgM and IgG, which is far more sensitive than the PCR tests. Unfortunately, we aren’t told about the type of antibody found:

IgM is to be found mostly from day 10 to 30 after SARS-Cov2 infection and IgG from day 20 onwards ...

 

Therefore, it is not unlikely that these 2 guys are no candidates for a Covid vaccination, because they are already immune...

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7264663/

[dave moir]

If borders are closed apart from repatriation flights how did a Thai man manage to fly to Japan?

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Anton9 said:

Yeah sure, like the salmon in China

No it was flying pigs, and the new swine flu they brought disguised as the old Covid.

[JTXR]

Without widespread testing (including random testing), there is no way to tell how widespread the virus may be in Thailand now.  Until there is a concentrated outbreak, as has just occurred in Vietnam, the government will just keep reporting "no new cases of local transmission confirmed." 

Most Thais I know are convinced the virus is around (that's why almost everyone still wears a mask), but social distancing efforts have pretty much broken down.  A concentrated outbreak that the government can't ignore will likely trigger another strong lockdown and set back any chance of international arrivals starting again.

[LeoCesar]

Of course thailand has cases, but thats ok.

Expose yourself to bacteria germs and so on and get over it.

You will probably not die, but you will probably get a stronger immune defense. 

[Anton9]

1 hour ago, Dumbastheycome said:

The connection of covid-19  to salmon in China was related  to the preparation surfaces in the  market  of Imported salmon ! Not  "Chinese"  salmon.

Of course it was from some seller at the market, China just tried to blame it on Norwegian Salmon.

New Zealand is trying to do the same blaming it on imported goods.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Anton9

[Anton9]

1 hour ago, Miami007 said:

The virus is probably widespread. But as most people have no or only mild symptoms,  nobody will ever realize the full extent. 

Just shows that opening borders wouldn't do much harm...

 

Btw, do you have a link to the reports in Italy?

https://www.romatoday.it/attualita/coronavirus-roma-notizie-oggi-9-agosto-2020.html

[Dumbastheycome]

11 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Of course it was from some seller at the market, China just tried to blame it on Norwegian Salmon.

New Zealand is trying to do the same blaming it on imported goods.

I do not  believe "blame" was put on  imported  salmon but at the time  suspicion was  about everything.

Similarly the NZ authorities will be investigating all and  every potential source especially given the apparent  randomness of the case.

Any commentary  via "news  flash" type of media content  need be taken with a large   dose of salt. No less than  some of the inflammatory sensational commentary here that is too often selectively permitted.

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Dumbastheycome
additional content

[CANSIAM]

Thailands Covid count obviously inaccurate. Mr Prayut and his disease directors need to learn to live with the virus being around, hopefully in controlled numbers until vaccine - open up with caution testing, tracing, social distancing, get tourist businesses rolling again and the country. The extended Emergency Decree is more deadly......   

[ukrules]

1 hour ago, BernieOnTour said:

According to my understanding, that CLEIA test in Japan is not necessarily giving an indication of people being sick.

 

The CLEIA test is a serological test for the antibodies IgM and IgG

According to what I read it's an Antigen test which tests for the presence of SARs-COV-2 from nasopharyngeal swabs.

 

Antibody tests are blood tests.

 

I believe this is the system they're referring to : https://www.fujirebio.com/en/products-solutions/lumipulser-g-sarscov2-ag

 

They appear to make separate antibody test systems as well so perhaps this is where some measure of confusion arises.

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by ukrules

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Miami007 said:

In Miami I see people wearing masks at all times except when exercising. Why need a government to tell you what to do.

But Miami still has highest number of cases in the state.  Most transmissions happen at home.

 

Florida has fewer deaths than New York.  Or California.. let's not make it about the party of the governor. 

Nobody talks about the BLM protests in late May and early June. 2 weeks later a surge in cases... 

 

Yep, Florida's doing just GREAT!!!