Thailand second-quarter GDP to post record contraction, slow recovery seen - Reuters poll

[webfact]

Thailand second-quarter GDP to post record contraction, slow recovery seen - Reuters poll

By Orathai Sriring

 

FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A worker stands next to shipping containers on a ship at a port in Bangkok, Thailand, March 25, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy likely shrank by a new record in April-June, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as the coronavirus pandemic battered tourism and domestic spending, pointing to a long road to recovery.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, which is heavily reliant on tourism and exports, probably contracted 13.3% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the poll.

 

That compares with a record contraction of 12.5% in the second quarter of 1998, during the Asian financial crisis, and against the March quarter's 1.8% shrinkage.

 

On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely declined a seasonally adjusted 11.4% in the June quarter, the deepest fall on record, compared with 2.2% shrinkage in the previous quarter.

 

"A double digit contraction is on the cards, likely marking the nadir for the down cycle," said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS in Singapore.

 

Any recovery will struggle for momentum due to a slower turnaround in domestic activity concurrently with a collapse in trade and tourism, she said.

 

"Economic recovery will be slow as long as the outbreak in other countries is not over as tourism will not get back," said economist Thammarat Kitisiripat at Tisco group.

 

The central bank expects activity to take at least two years to return to the pre-pandemic level.

 

Without any local transmissions for over two months, Thailand has allowed businesses to reopen but it has not lifted a ban on foreign visitors, which fell to zero in April-June, with travel bubble plans shelved.

 

Exports have declined due to weak global demand and a strong baht <THB=TH> while anti-government protests hurt sentiment.

 

The National Economic and Social Development Council, which compiles GDP data, forecast the economy would shrink 5%-6% this year and will give a new projection on Monday. The poll saw a 7.5% GDP contraction, the worst since 1998's record 7.6% drop.

 

Thailand has introduced a 1.9 trillion baht ($61.19 billion) package to mitigate the outbreak impact but the drawdown has been slow.

 

($1 = 31.05 baht)

 

(Additional reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai in Bangkok and Shaloo Shrivastava in Bengaluru; Editing by Sam Holmes)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-08-14

 

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[hotchilli]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's economy likely shrank by a new record in April-June, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as the coronavirus pandemic battered tourism and domestic spending, pointing to a long road to recovery.

And falling... Thailands sunk unless the leaders start to do some serious changes with people who know how to run a country and take care of the economy.

[RichardColeman]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, which is heavily reliant on tourism and exports, probably contracted 13.3% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the poll.

Way I see it, a drop of just -13.3% whilst seeming not as high as I think it actually is, is maybe possible.

BUT.

Those figures included 'some tourism and orders booked prior to the pandemic - which will not be available for the next 2 qtrs

 

If -13.3% IS real, and Thailand DOES NOT open up, then, anything reported in Q3 and Q4 under 20% will be completely faked (as usual).

 

Fully expect mass protest if not open by Chinese new year - simply as the populace will have nothing to do other than mill about in the streets scavenging !

[robblok]

32 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Way I see it, a drop of just -13.3% whilst seeming not as high as I think it actually is, is maybe possible.

BUT.

Those figures included 'some tourism and orders booked prior to the pandemic - which will not be available for the next 2 qtrs

 

If -13.3% IS real, and Thailand DOES NOT open up, then, anything reported in Q3 and Q4 under 20% will be completely faked (as usual).

 

Fully expect mass protest if not open by Chinese new year - simply as the populace will have nothing to do other than mill about in the streets scavenging !

Uk contraction is 20% worst in europe so Thailand is not doing bad. 

 

I fully expect looting and mass protests... oh i forgot we need to pretwnd things are worse in Thailand.

[Brunolem]

37 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

 

Fully expect mass protest if not open by Chinese new year - simply as the populace will have nothing to do other than mill about in the streets scavenging !

Don't think so. 

 

Save for the students, who are not directly concerned by unemployment, Thai people tend to protest only if they get paid to do it. 

 

On top of that, the situation today is not worse than it was three or four months ago, probably a bit better in fact... so why would they protest now if they have not done it already? 

[3NUMBAS]

similar to spain which had relied on tourism too much and now faces econmoic devastation

 

Spain recorded almost 3,000 new cases on Friday, about double the average in the first 12 days of August, bringing the cumulative total to 342,813 - the highest in Western Europe.

 

Earlier on Friday, Spain announced a series of measures limiting nightlife, including closing discotheques, cocktail bars and dance halls.

Asked whether the limits on night-time leisure would have an impact on tourism and on the economy, Gonzalez Laya said:

“The main question today is how do we make sure we limit infection and the expansion of COVID in the country.”

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-spain-germany/new-outbreaks-are-the-norm-says-spain-as-covid-19-travel-curbs-pile-up-idUKKCN25A2GW

[MRToMRT]

Theres one thing for sure, it will never be as bad (rioting ??) as most of the posters on ThaiVisa forecast. It is what it is, as it gets worse measures will be taken. It's not as if every other country is not in a similar boat and we are not seeing mass rioting and looting in other places because of CV fallout.