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Pattaya: Grim picture for future of resort as post pandemic optimism dries up


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8 minutes ago, aussienam said:

Several thousands of us who are retirees locked out of Thailand stranded abroad, being completely ignored by everyone in Thai government, when we normally spend up to 365 days a year in Thailand with our foreign sourced incomes.  

Whilst we are not going to solve all the economic woes, we are nonetheless the ones who help prop up the quieter bars, laundromats, hairdressers, convenience stores, restaurants, food carts, shopping centers, etc. We are there in high and low seasons.  

But the incredibly slow re-entry intake, just one port of entry, not enough ASQ approved facilities, barring most of us on retirement visas - now 6 months into this debacle, is adding to complete devastation of places like Pattaya and the rest of Thailand that have relied/part relied on the expat community. 

I am in a couple of Facebook Groups for stranded expats.  We are suffering terribly, financially many of us badly affected, double rents, ongoing bills, still supporting loved ones, living out of a suitcase intended for just a few weeks.  It is now beyond ridiculous.  The constant vacillating of government leaders' decisions and/or plans means we cannot plan ahead.  We are in a state of limbo and anxiety. 

To the expats who are still in Thailand unaffected, yes the quieter environment and having the financial advantage, may appeal to some, who would like it to remain like this.  The poor Thais going broke with the prospect of <deleted>tier lives, I don't think they're smiling.  

The longer this drags on the more expats will pull the pin on Thailand too as the stranded situation is untenable.  It will then be a case of getting back to Thailand just to get their 800,000 baht deposits back and transferred out.  

It is not a good situation and i really feel for you. My situation is different but I have not seen my wife and son for 1 year and 5 months now, i have missed my son's first 2 birthdays. This will come to an end one way or another, might not be the desired first choice outcome but it will end, enjoy your evening fella, you are not alone.

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Most people with loans don't own anything for the banks to take. IMHO Banks are just as likely to fail as any other business. I really don't expect tourism to be profitable again in the near

If I was the Economics or Finance Minister of Thailand I would have trouble sleeping at night.   In my mind would be graphs of the rise in debt---corporate and household---over the last ten

Indentured servitude is on its way . You are most likely right that banks are going to fail but I’m sure there are some financial institutes that are going to prosper . I said it 6 months ago that the

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3 minutes ago, mr mr said:

gawd not another pattaya is dead thread..........

What I'm really wondering about is where is JSixPack? Did the Protector of Pattaya leave this realm?

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41 minutes ago, rott said:

Many Thai people were last Sunday. 

And if you are careful; you can get fresh beers at about one in three 7-11s.

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7 hours ago, Huckenfell said:

 

So wrong!  you obviously have not the slightest idea of the pleasure and love which you have missed through your decision not to have children. A big and selfish mistake indeed.

 

How do you know that he made "a big and selfish mistake"? He may have lived a great life without having children. We all make choices in life, and just because he made a different choice to you regarding children, that doesn't mean that you were right, and he was wrong. 

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11 hours ago, Walker88 said:

If I was the Economics or Finance Minister of Thailand I would have trouble sleeping at night.

 

In my mind would be graphs of the rise in debt---corporate and household---over the last ten years, bank exposure, and the likelihood that asset prices (otherwise known as collateral for all those bank loans) are under pressure.

 

In Bangkok one can see billboards advertising 50% price cuts on under-construction condos by major developers. Not good. Real estate prices are set on the margin, which means prices are set by the weakest hands, which is to say those with the most leverage. Those with less leverage (if these aren't unicorns) are still going to feel it, because real estate is a wasting asset. Even if one is debt free, there are still property taxes and maintenance costs, so a building with no tenant or one in arrears still has a cash outflow.

 

Leveraged owners with no tenants (businesses gone bust) will be turning the keys over to banks, and banks are not going to want to own a huge portfolio of real estate. They will want to sell it.

 

The govt had introduced debt amnesty, but that has expired. The debt didn't go away, of course, but borrowers were allowed to skip payments and banks did not have to account for the lack of incoming debt servicing. Yesterday an official said it might be time to put this debt moratorium back on, which is to say, "Let's kick the can down the road again, because there is no other way to deal with it".

 

I have seen some commentary that 'this isn't as bad as 1997'. I question that, as it is not only an entirely different problem, it is also worldwide, not just regional like 1997. Yes, there are likely to be bargains galore in property, but timing will be critical. Buying something down 50% looks good until its price is down 75%.

 

Thailand does have a decent pile of foreign reserves. I suspect it is going to have to go to that well, and soon, if it insists on maintaining the same level of vigilance against the virus by keeping the borders closed. Absent some return to normalcy, the banking system's capital cushion is going to be under pressure in the next few months as more businesses fail and leveraged borrowers---even homeowners who put zero down on that new car---feel the pain of economic decline. Banks are increasingly likely to need some sort of bailout. Accounting rules can be changed, by mathematics is the Sword of Damocles that cannot be denied.

 

This article is about Pattaya, because the pain hits it first and hardest owing to its dependence on foreign tourism. The wider Thai economy is hardly any more immune to Covid-driven decline. Some truly difficult decisions are coming.

Thank you!

 

Probably the most lucid and well informed/educated response I've ever read on this forum in 17 years.

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15 minutes ago, mr mr said:

gawd not another pattaya is dead thread..........

when do you think people think that there might be something in it?

 

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53 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

It is not a good situation and i really feel for you.

it was the 1st negative post I've red from an expat 'stuck' in thailand. All those rock bottom market prices lower than for decades, and availability of fresher 'resources' not usually available for older expats. All the other expats are saying now is the best time in pattaya they've ever known.

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6 minutes ago, djuiiy said:

it was the 1st negative post I've red from an expat 'stuck' in thailand. All those rock bottom market prices lower than for decades, and availability of fresher 'resources' not usually available for older expats. All the other expats are saying now is the best time in pattaya they've ever known.

I think my friend you will find there are many people being seperated from their families and loved ones right now, great for you but have a heart fella..

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3 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

I think my friend you will find there are many people being seperated from their families and loved ones right now, great for you but have a heart fella..

eh? I don't think u were following this thread...

1. i wasn't talking about people who are seperated in different countries, i was talking about expats based in pattaya.
2. me? no its not great for me at all. I wanted to get out my expensive rented room in england, put all my stuff in storage and spend the summer and maybe the autumn in thailand and vietnam. Never had chance to live abroad other than short holidays so was really excited about it. Of course, by sod's law, the people who control the world economy saw i was about to have the best 6 months of my life so they shut down international travel to the most severe extent in 75 years. It was my fault getting my hopes up that caused the covid travesty.

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I have lived, worked, married, and recently retired in Thailand, after arriving in Hua Hin in 1990, and since then have listened to many whispered warnings from insiders within various influential groups claiming that eventually Pattaya would be "cleaned up", with all undesirables exported and deported back to their own countries so that the city could be converted into a clean, sanitized and safe weekend playground for Thais only. I never really paid much attention to these "Chinese whispers" and yet here we are are witnessing the self destruction of a city that once employed tens of thousands of decent, hardworking Thais, whose families are now becoming destitute and desperate. What a pity, what a shame, they deserve better.       

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5 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

Nearly all trade is reliant in tourism and the business was declining significantly for 5 or 6 years before I got out of there. Many of my friends and colleagues have done the same, there was no money to be made anymore. So not being argumentative but your holiday experience is not the same as living and working there and it has been on the slide for a long time, it absolutely is not growing year on year, quite the reverse.

 

But is that because there's been a decline in tourists, or because it's been overbuilt, with so much cut throat competition that nobody can make money?

 

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1 hour ago, GAZZPA said:

Well I lived and worked there for 7 years, before that regular visits on business for 10 years. I also had a business in Pattaya and know many who also own there own business. Nearly all trade is reliant in tourism and the business was declining significantly for 5 or 6 years before I got out of there. Many of my friends and colleagues have done the same, there was no money to be made anymore. So not being argumentative but your holiday experience is not the same as living and working there and it has been on the slide for a long time, it absolutely is not growing year on year, quite the reverse.

   Yes, some western tourism businesses, which you likely had, were suffering pre-covid in Pattaya.  Possibly more a case of too many new western businesses opening to be supported by the number of western tourists.  A western tourist business failing, however, does not mean that Pattaya was failing pre-covid.  It certainly was not.  One western business closing was replaced by numerous new businesses catering to all the new Asian tourists, including domestic Thais.  I think if you go back to your post and insert the word 'western' in front of every use of the word 'business' you'll get a more accurate take on things.  

   Terminal 21 opening was a big draw for northern Pattaya, attracting lots of the new tourists to that area, Wongamat, and Naklua. Large, new hotels such as Mytt, Brighton, Grande Centre Point, [email protected], and Grand Palazzo, along with new, smaller boutique hotels such as LK Emerald Beach, opened to help Amari, Dusit, Holiday Inn and the many others handle all the new tourists wanting to be in that area.  Some businesses in now less popular areas likely may have suffered--again, that does not mean Pattaya was suffering.  It's natural for areas of any city to gain and lose popularity as demographics change; just as it's natural for some businesses to close and others to open.  

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