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Pattaya: Grim picture for future of resort as post pandemic optimism dries up


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3 hours ago, Raphus said:

Thailand is doomed

i shall keep saying it every day when I see these stories.

i have said it since June. But now it is really starting to show.

Did you just wake up from a long, deep sleep? The tourism industry has been dead all over the world since March. Thailand is going to do a lot better than a lot of Western Nations that have been working their printing presses overtime. Thailand does not die without tourists.   

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Most people with loans don't own anything for the banks to take. IMHO Banks are just as likely to fail as any other business. I really don't expect tourism to be profitable again in the near

If I was the Economics or Finance Minister of Thailand I would have trouble sleeping at night.   In my mind would be graphs of the rise in debt---corporate and household---over the last ten

Indentured servitude is on its way . You are most likely right that banks are going to fail but I’m sure there are some financial institutes that are going to prosper . I said it 6 months ago that the

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Thai people need to decide how scared they are of Covid.  Why can't they allow O-A visa holders to come back in if they were stuck outside.  Many with relationships who are younger would want to return if a visa similar to tourist visa would be allowed.  They need to crank up the ASQs and testing.

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On 9/8/2020 at 10:17 AM, Walker88 said:

If I was the Economics or Finance Minister of Thailand I would have trouble sleeping at night.

 

In my mind would be graphs of the rise in debt---corporate and household---over the last ten years, bank exposure, and the likelihood that asset prices (otherwise known as collateral for all those bank loans) are under pressure.

 

In Bangkok one can see billboards advertising 50% price cuts on under-construction condos by major developers. Not good. Real estate prices are set on the margin, which means prices are set by the weakest hands, which is to say those with the most leverage. Those with less leverage (if these aren't unicorns) are still going to feel it, because real estate is a wasting asset. Even if one is debt free, there are still property taxes and maintenance costs, so a building with no tenant or one in arrears still has a cash outflow.

 

Leveraged owners with no tenants (businesses gone bust) will be turning the keys over to banks, and banks are not going to want to own a huge portfolio of real estate. They will want to sell it.

 

The govt had introduced debt amnesty, but that has expired. The debt didn't go away, of course, but borrowers were allowed to skip payments and banks did not have to account for the lack of incoming debt servicing. Yesterday an official said it might be time to put this debt moratorium back on, which is to say, "Let's kick the can down the road again, because there is no other way to deal with it".

 

I have seen some commentary that 'this isn't as bad as 1997'. I question that, as it is not only an entirely different problem, it is also worldwide, not just regional like 1997. Yes, there are likely to be bargains galore in property, but timing will be critical. Buying something down 50% looks good until its price is down 75%.

 

Thailand does have a decent pile of foreign reserves. I suspect it is going to have to go to that well, and soon, if it insists on maintaining the same level of vigilance against the virus by keeping the borders closed. Absent some return to normalcy, the banking system's capital cushion is going to be under pressure in the next few months as more businesses fail and leveraged borrowers---even homeowners who put zero down on that new car---feel the pain of economic decline. Banks are increasingly likely to need some sort of bailout. Accounting rules can be changed, by mathematics is the Sword of Damocles that cannot be denied.

 

This article is about Pattaya, because the pain hits it first and hardest owing to its dependence on foreign tourism. The wider Thai economy is hardly any more immune to Covid-driven decline. Some truly difficult decisions are coming.

Good article well written and I totally agree with your thoughts. My fear is that as I read the other day people will just give up and resort to crime and violence as they believe there is no other way. My long term goals re my lady and Thailand are changing due to the likely moral and economic collapse. She runs a small business and is now fearful for her own safety.

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3 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Post pandemic?

 

Only after Donald J. Trump is carried out of the White House.

 

Either in handcuffs or a pinewood box.

 

And even then it'll take months to comeback. 👈

Decades

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17 hours ago, overherebc said:

People don't believe me when I say the reason I never had or wanted kids, ex was of the same mind, because I really didn't want to bring kids into this world and I'm talking about 40+ years ago. The mess this world is in now has, for me anyway, proved I'm right.

Over populated, over polluted and heading for deep doo-doo in a hand cart. All countries in the same cart.

I wonder what my parents were thinking conceiving my two sisters and two brothers during WW2 while Hitler rained down his bombs on Britain. Life goes on believe me.

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6 hours ago, DrTuner said:

What I'm really wondering about is where is JSixPack? Did the Protector of Pattaya leave this realm?

Changed his title....master of all he owned,and all the other properties he didn't own

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20 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

A lot of people’s life savings are going up in smoke . It’s almost like the banks are waiting to take property and goods and will only be too happy to reset everybody to zero so they can come back to the banks and get even more debt to start up again. None of this makes any sense !

It's going to be the same the world over, not just Pattaya..

they and others have made a good killing over the last decades, things are different now.

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20 hours ago, Oldie said:

The malls are still open. You also can sit on the beach. Is there anything else that motivates you to come here? 

A lot of farangs were motivated to go to Pattaya because of the abundance of young, accommodating ladies. Are they still about, or have they returned to their villages?

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11 hours ago, rexall said:

Why on earth would an owner do that unless he expected that he could find a new, full-paying tenant, or if he  had some other plans for the property?  Makes no sense.

He himself is desperate to make more money. They have a strange attitude these locals, quite prepared to earn nothing rather than reduce prices sometimes.

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22 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

A lot of people’s life savings are going up in smoke . It’s almost like the banks are waiting to take property and goods and will only be too happy to reset everybody to zero so they can come back to the banks and get even more debt to start up again. None of this makes any sense !

Wasn't that the PLAN all along?

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1 hour ago, Titan1962 said:

Pattaya,Phuket,Bangkok,Chiang Mai and many more tourist locations need the government to look really hard at the situation in hand and the road forward. This pandemic has proved that these places cannot survive without international tourists. Maybe it’s time for the government to take a good hard look at their policies towards retirement and other long term visa holders. Why not revisit the laws on retirement visas,Thailand is a beautiful country,so much to see and do. I see a lot of countries struggling with Covid and all are having the same issues as Thailand. Shops closed,house prices falling,governments throwing heaps of money at the situation with no real end in sight. Thailand needs to think outside of the so called box and look for other options,( many are needed ). But one could be making it easier for retired people or couples to live here. A lot could be done to allow this to happen.

Do away with the 90 day reporting,once the retirement visa is issued. Need only to report if your permanent address has changed. Increase the duration of the retirement visa to 5 years after 5 years of living here. Reduce the monthly income requirements to obtain that visa due to COVID affecting people’s retirement income. Do away with dual pricing and definitely bring in that residency card or use the pink Thai ID card to allow people that live here full time a way to get out of the dual pricing scam. I think many people from all parts of the globe will be struggling with the cost of living in their home countries,during and after this COVID pandemic. Many will be looking for a cheaper and better way of life with what they have left. Thailand should seize the opportunity and make it easier and welcome these people. 
Most retirees just want to enjoy their remaining days,not all are interested in the girly bars and sitting in the bar all day pussy watching. (I did say not all). Thailand could become a destination that retirees want  to come too if it was obtainable and more friendly towards them. It would not fix the situation but it would surely help having Many more like us renting,buying property,even spending that cash at Makro,Tesco,local markets and restaurants. We as retirees might not spend as much as tourists in a week or two,but we do spend every day,every week every month continuously year in year out. That is sustainable and helps the economy grow. The other thing Thai people don’t seem to understand,that we actually take nothing from Thailand. We don’t take jobs from them,we don’t put a strain on their social security system,we don’t come here to cause trouble. We come here to spend our retirement money and try to enjoy the life we have left. 
The world has a huge ageing population,and Thailand should be taking advantage of this opportunity. 
Anyway had my rant for the day,feel a bit better now. 

What about the free beer?

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