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george

The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

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Central bank: Economy is pessimistic

BANGKOK: -- Political anxieties and signs that this year’s economy would fare poorer than 2006 have forced consumers to be cautious in spending while most businessmen have decided to postpone investment, according to a report issued by the Bank of Thailand (BoT).

The April report, released by the central bank, was based on information obtained from 170 business operators nationwide between this January-March.

According to the report, most business operators agreed that general economy during the first quarter of 2007 declined from the corresponding period of 2006 due to political uncertainty in Thailand and on belief that this year’s economy would grow less than 2006.

Most consumers have become cautious in spending on both durable and luxurious goods because of those two main reasons, the report said.

Because of the poor purchasing power of the people, sales of department stores, electrical appliances, autos and motorcycles had also fallen, it said, adding that most business operators have decided to postpone investment and adopted a wait-and-see attitude on local political direction and the government’s policy.

However, business entrepreneurs are optimistic that investment in long-term in Thailand are still bright and that it would pick up after a general election scheduled to be held this December.

Thailand’s exports of electronic goods, vehicles and auto parts, and frozen seafood also retreated. But exports of agricultural products improved due to demand in the world market but earnings of most exporters dropped because of fierce competition.

The report added that business operators are closely monitoring local political uncertainty, government’s policy, movements of the Thai baht currency, signs of global economy slump and oil prices.

Pessimistic views by business operators came after the BoT earlier this week revised downward economic growth forecast from the range of 4-5 percent to 3.8-4.8 percent as consumption and investment activities contracted more severely than previously expected.

--TNA 2007-04-29

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They don't bet on large currency movements in one direction in countries they know have the ability to defend themselves. Failing strong regional alliances, countries, like Thailand will unfortunately remain at risk.

This it. One of the reasons why Malaysia got through the 97' crisis better than Thailand; they had a fundamentally more stable economy than Thailand's.

AND they had Mahathir.

malaysia?? ..wasn't that country the place where once not too long ago, mr. M invited investors to come one and all to buy property there - ONLY - to change the laws later prohibiting foreign ownership? do people remember how everybody who was not malaysian lost all their money overnight when this law was effectively passed by the citizens of that country?

nice trick.

..and you wonder how come there is so much money in malaysia now?

malaysia has a new scam going on now. it's called "second home". it will be interesting to see how many suckers will be pulled into this one.

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Failing strong regional alliances, countries, like Thailand will unfortunately remain at risk.

we are facing the opposite in what hedge funds and big speculators like Soros were and are still interested, namely the interesting fact that a currency [THB] is not really vulnerable but shows an unwanted strength. that not only offshore but also onshore. speculators have never been interested in undue strengths of "tiny" currencies like THB because no big gains can be expected. for THB in 1997 and GBP in 1992 the situation was in favour of big gains for the speculators as the BOT and the BOE tried frantically to defend their currencies by buying whatever the shorters threw on the market.

the strength of THB contributes only a fraction to what is now called "Thai economy is in crisis". assuming there is a crisis (which i don't believe) then it is most probably a normal occurence of business cycles. after boom in many cases bust follows.

funnily each and everything negative happening nowadays is blamed on the military government. that the economy cooled down, the Baht strengthened, the visa regulations were [planned] to tighten, the issue of foreign landownership... all happened or was initiated when Thaksin was still in full power as the little emperor of Thailand.

lol, why let a few good facts (that you've given) get in the way of an argument :o

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Thailand really needs to get a newly elected government and constitution ASAP, and they need to institute some well thought out capital controls that will be in the interest of Thailands economy for the long run.

There's absolutely no guarantee that the new govt will be any smarter than this one in any respect.

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After some negotiation my wife agreed on a figure to pay, she explained that showing them the tax invoice would cause them to lose face and would result in them extracting money for something even more spurious.

the underlying problem in a nutshell ,

and , as blatantly FALSE as the Emperors new clothes ...........................

Of course, I must have made it all up being delusional being mugged after a long flight. Of course customs don't give you a hastily scrawled official looking document without filing a copy away for accounting purposes. Never would they merely pocket their tea money any more than they would sit on sea freight for months whilst extorting money out of some farang. Of course Song Taews treat their customers in a standard manner and border police never have a bad day at the office either.

Thailand operates as a boutique banana republic with the pretensions to being something grander but has more in common with some African regimes than with other asian tigers. Roll on the currency crisis and dont forget to stash your savings in dollars or Euros.

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Government Housing Bank reports 6 billion baht reduction in housing loans

The Government Housing Bank President, Mr. Khan Prachuabmoh (ขรรค์ ประจวบเหมาะ), reports that total credit lines released by the bank in the first quarter of 2007 decreased by more than 6 billion baht when compared with the same period in 2006.

Mr. Khan revealed that the bank earned a net profit of 309 million baht in the first quarter of 2007, a reduction of 500 million baht when compared with the same period in 2006. Mr. Khan attributed the profit loss to IAS 39 measures imposed by the Bank of Thailand, which stipulates that a banking institution must hold capital reserves of at least 1.2 billion baht.

Mr. Khan said that the Government Housing Bank's total asset is valued at 615 billion baht, with credit lines extended by 566 billion baht, and savings totaling 458 billion baht. Savings in the bank increased by 93 billion baht in comparison to the savings last year. The GHB President reports that his bank remains capable of providing 22 billion baht of credit this year, down 6 billion baht from 2006.

The President of the Government Housing Bank attributed the reduction to public loss of confidence in the property market, resulting in a decrease in housing loans.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 30 April 2007

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going nowhere but down.....

Tuesday May 01, 2007

ECONOMY MARCH STATISTICS

Economy slows further on weak domestic demand

DARANA CHUDASRI

The economy slowed further in March due to persistent weakness in domestic demand, according to data released yesterday by the Bank of Thailand. The private consumption index shrank 1.4% year-on-year in March, compared with a 0.2% year-on-year increase in February, contributing to a 0.5% contraction year-on-year in the first quarter.

The private investment index decreased 2.9% year-on-year in March, compared with a 1.3% decline the previous month, according to the central bank.

Amara Sriphayak, senior director for the domestic economy department, said exports were the main economic driving force in the first quarter.

The consumption trend reflected declines in passenger cars sales and construction materials.

The figure was in line with a University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce survey, which indicated consumption was worsening due to concerns over political uncertainties.

Dr Amara said the business sentiment index looking forward for three months was at 47.1 for June, indicating worsened investor confidence for the first time in six months.

''Consumers were more cautious in their spending. Meanwhile, investors still are hesitating. Figures in March indicated a steeper slowdown as a result of political uncertainties,'' she said.

Exports totalled $12.9 billion in March, up 19% year-on-year.

Imports were $10.7 billion, a 0.5% increase from last year. The trade account recorded a $2.2 billion surplus, while the current account recorded a record high at $2.25 billion for the month.

Imports of capital goods declined 6.2% year-on-year in March, compared with 2.8% year-on-year growth in February.

Consumer goods imports grew 3.8% year-on-year, compared with 13% year-on-year growth in February.

Dr Amara said the current account surplus totalled $3.5 billion in the first quarter. The central bank maintained its forecast of a $4-6 billion current account surplus for 2007 due to plans to import aircraft in the second and third quarters.

The central bank also expects exports to slow down over the rest of the year.

A manufacturing slowdown in March was due mainly to declines in production of vehicles and construction in line with weaker demand.

The manufacturing production index grew 6.1% in the first quarter, down from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2006.

The economic outlook and overall employment could be improved by the government's economic stimulus measures, Dr Amara said. Elections are also expected to improve economic sentiment.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/01May2007_biz36.php

Edited by bingobongo

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After some negotiation my wife agreed on a figure to pay, she explained that showing them the tax invoice would cause them to lose face and would result in them extracting money for something even more spurious.

the underlying problem in a nutshell ,

and , as blatantly FALSE as the Emperors new clothes ...........................

Of course, I must have made it all up being delusional being mugged after a long flight. Of course customs don't give you a hastily scrawled official looking document without filing a copy away for accounting purposes. Never would they merely pocket their tea money any more than they would sit on sea freight for months whilst extorting money out of some farang. Of course Song Taews treat their customers in a standard manner and border police never have a bad day at the office either.

Thailand operates as a boutique banana republic with the pretensions to being something grander but has more in common with some African regimes than with other asian tigers. Roll on the currency crisis and dont forget to stash your savings in dollars or Euros.

I was afraid that my post should be thus misinterpreted ......................

I was suggesting that the concept of face was comparable to the Emperors new clothes in this instance ,

NOT casting dispersions on your story .

mid

spelling

Edited by Mid

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Don't know if this really relates to the topic, but I had an interesting conversation with a worker at SCB last week. When I requested to open a savings account, was told "only with a work permit". I was further told this was a new Bank of Thailand rule. Asking this gentleman how intending retirees are to have 800,000 baht in a bank account 3 months before their intended retirement, he replied "Can't do." I decided to quiz him further about Thai bank policy and asked how Thailand was going to grow without foreign money coming into the country. He replied "Don't know." The whole conversation was really kind of bizarre. I ended our dialogue with one final question, "Does Thailand even want any foreign investment coming into the country?" The reply I got wasn't what I expected. He told me the country doesn't want foreign money or foreign people retiring here. So there you have it! I guess Thailand is off my list of countries for retiring to.

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Don't know if this really relates to the topic, but I had an interesting conversation with a worker at SCB last week. When I requested to open a savings account, was told "only with a work permit". I was further told this was a new Bank of Thailand rule. Asking this gentleman how intending retirees are to have 800,000 baht in a bank account 3 months before their intended retirement, he replied "Can't do." I decided to quiz him further about Thai bank policy and asked how Thailand was going to grow without foreign money coming into the country. He replied "Don't know." The whole conversation was really kind of bizarre. I ended our dialogue with one final question, "Does Thailand even want any foreign investment coming into the country?" The reply I got wasn't what I expected. He told me the country doesn't want foreign money or foreign people retiring here. So there you have it! I guess Thailand is off my list of countries for retiring to.

That is the opinion of one man. You were probobally getting on his nerves which resulted in his answers being obtuse.

Regardless it seems ridiculous that you can't open an account without a WP, again goal posts are being moved.

Why can't they just stick with a rule and be done with it........

This country is heading into the doldrums, everywhere else is booming, whilst Thailand squanders it's chance for growth, by the time the next worldwide recession is approaching Thailand will already be in a recession, that will mean they will be severely hit when teh next enevitable worldwide slowdown happens.

The future does not look too rosy I feel.

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Don't know if this really relates to the topic, but I had an interesting conversation with a worker at SCB last week. When I requested to open a savings account, was told "only with a work permit". I was further told this was a new Bank of Thailand rule. Asking this gentleman how intending retirees are to have 800,000 baht in a bank account 3 months before their intended retirement, he replied "Can't do." I decided to quiz him further about Thai bank policy and asked how Thailand was going to grow without foreign money coming into the country. He replied "Don't know." The whole conversation was really kind of bizarre. I ended our dialogue with one final question, "Does Thailand even want any foreign investment coming into the country?" The reply I got wasn't what I expected. He told me the country doesn't want foreign money or foreign people retiring here. So there you have it! I guess Thailand is off my list of countries for retiring to.

Probably sums up the whole attitude correctly, Officially Foreigners are not wanted here!

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Don't know if this really relates to the topic, but I had an interesting conversation with a worker at SCB last week. When I requested to open a savings account, was told "only with a work permit".

two of my retiree friends opened accounts with SBC, Pattaya without any hassles. one end of march, the other one last week.

by the way, accepting the opinion of a "worker" in a bank as proof for the country's policies is not exactly wise.

did you ask to see the manager? i faced several times bureaucratic hurdles low level employees created out of the blue and/or their own interpretations of regulations (i am banking with SBC) which could be sorted out in a few minutes talking to the branch manager.

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Probably sums up the whole attitude correctly, Officially Foreigners are not wanted here!

yeah right! official announcements in Thailand are always made by "workers" in banks.

:o

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Probably sums up the whole attitude correctly, Officially Foreigners are not wanted here!

yeah right! official announcements in Thailand are always made by "workers" in banks.

:o

:D:D:D

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I have yet, to have any problems at a bank. But it is always my wife doing the talking, and me doing the shoulder shrugging. I couldn't even use an ATM card here if I was kidnapped. Truth is I really could not use one in the states either. I have an ipod, and I still have not figured that thing out.

I suffer from early onset of ageing I guess.

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