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george

The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

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englishoak,

you may have been able to run away from the west, but you can't run away from reality......

reality is delicious, have a taste......less rhetoric and more facts please.....

City office building market sluggish in 1st quarter

Supint Meechucheep, the company’s president, said impacts of the political uncertainties on the property business had gained clear momentum as could be witnessed by a decline in consumer spending, investment, and business expansion by the private sector

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=29294

baring in mind that the whole world is suffering from a real estae slug in the 1st quarter. I think your above statement is not relevant . unless you are blaming the Thais for the fact the the USA and erutope are slow as well.

once again there are projects in bangkok that sell well and others that dont. and the fact that a president of one company is not doing well and blaming it on the econmy is not a beahvior limited to Thais only.

i have been following your posts and in many occasions you do have a valid point. however you tend to use a bashing anti thai form and post it over and over again. its a pity as you have some serious points to the discussion.

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I can't really see why we who criticise the current incompetent goverment (and the former for that case) always get labeled as "anti-thai". I want nothing more then good things to happen to this country and especially the people, but when they are constantly abused and used by the so-called superior thais I get mad.

I would love to see not just angry complaints in this forum, but that the TV-users who cares would get together and organize a simple, quiet, protest. I think most of us have at least one friend with connections to our own government and we could arrange a BBQ-protest at an embassy or something.

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... All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

... People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. ... if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it.

As just one example, nick2k, try this:

"The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."

This is David Rockefeller thanking "... The Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years." In other words, for knowingly maintaining silence about their ongoing conspiracy.

otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

Perhaps it's time for the Americans to accept some responsiblility for the evil they have been perpetrating for decades; Vietnam, South America, now Iraq, the CIA's renditioning, etc, etc, etc. Given that Bush, Blair and Howard are all products of Western democracy, there is an urgent need for an immediate alternative.

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Let s keep this on topic and off US bashing or posts will be deleted and warnings handed out.

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I think a lot of people here are underestimating how hard it is to manipulate currency markets.

In terms of some sort of economic crisis, even this lower GDP number is 3 times the GDP growth that the USA is currently experiencing.

With a Coup, The Tsunami, FBA, 30% Currency regulation etc... I'd say its doing pretty ###### fine actually. Some people are just naturally a little negative and look for things to fail, so they can say "I told you so".

I could start a thread with the title "THAILAND GROWS 3 TIMES AS QUICKLY AS THE USA" but it really doesn't mean anything even though it would be a true statement.

well I don't understand the currentcy market but I do know when I transfer my USD to thai baht I am getting ripped off big time now let me ask you this if thailand is growing in leaps and bound why is it taiwan a country 1/3 the size of thailand is beating out all the other countries in getting foriegn investments and I do want to add the people in taiwan earn more money per hour than any other asian country with the exception of Japan & Korea why is it the Thai people go to Singapore & Malaysia to work insted of working home as for the USA unfortunatly the people elected a moron two times who gave away the surplus money he inherit from Clinton then broke the country so the banks can have there holiday in lending USA back it own money at unknow % rate so if you want to point fingers look at the world banking system

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There's still room for relaxation on monetary and fiscal policies : Finance Minister

Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn said on Friday that there is still room for further relaxation of both monetary and fiscal policy.

Speaking in a business forum, entitled "Toward Thai economic Recovery" held by The Nation, the finance minister also believes political uncertainty would subside over the next three months.

He said the central bank had just in April reduced policy rate.

But with inflation rate as low as 1.8 per cent as of April, still low compared to around 6 per cent the mid of last year, there is room for further cut of policy rate which is currently at 4.5 per cent.

However, the rate cut decision depend on the Bank of Thailand, he said.

In addition, the Finance Ministry would soon find way for tax measure to help boost economy. He said there are also measures to help boost other sectors including property when asked by some audiences of how the government would help prop up real estate sector.

Chalongphob believes Thai economic fundamental is still strong and foreign investors are still confident in Thai market. Once political uncertainty subsides, the economy will recover.

Source: The Nation - 11 May 2007

what am I missing here if all this is true which I believe it to be true why is it I am getting ripped off every time I transfer my USD to a thai baht please educate me since I am a American who voted for Gore & kerry

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I have yet, to have any problems at a bank. But it is always my wife doing the talking, and me doing the shoulder shrugging. I couldn't even use an ATM card here if I was kidnapped. Truth is I really could not use one in the states either. I have an ipod, and I still have not figured that thing out.

I suffer from early onset of ageing I guess.

don't tell any one your PIN number and watch your money grow in the ciountry you come from and you can always write a check in your home country amen

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Ok back to Thailand I hope, the one thing that has amazed me since I really started watching this some six months ga ago, is the amount of opposing reports in the Bangkok Post and the Nation in the same day about the same subject.

One showing doom and gloom the other everything is great.

To be honest with you, I don't think things are great. But with the news reported as it is, it is in really nothing more then a feeling. The baht itself defies all logic, not mine but people who do understand currency trading.

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not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

Nick, First of all there is no conspiracy theory going on here, hegde funds and arbitragers have been with us for a while now and their size, strength, and political clout has grown into something that would make the tabacco industry evious. Secondly, this is not a uniquely american phenomonon there are many european hedge funds manipulating the thai market as well as many other markets in asia and elseware. Last week on 60 minutes (or maybe it was 20-20) there was a segment on just this, and senator grassley who had the guts to put forward some rather tame hegde fund legislation on the senate floor was interviewed and said that within 10 minutes of introducing his bill on the senate floor he was contacted by multiple parties(both other senators and lobbyists) to kill the bill. In this same segment it was made clear that on multiple occasions senator dodd has killed similiar bills and then 60 minutes went on to say that dodd recieved over 5 million dollars from the hedge fund industry in his last campaign. These are the hard cold facts my friend, I only wish it was just a bad dream or some bogus conspiracy theory. By the way americans are not to blame but instead are victims of these hedge funds as well. Perhaps when the valuation on the baht does reverse dramatically and some journalist can lay out just how all this occured, then perhaps you will not be so naive the next time around.

ok. I am not disbelieving you. especially if 60 minutes brought the subject up.

...if some senators and some lobby groups tried to stop this hegde fund legislation, then, these people need to be identified before anybody can do anything. so, the big question is - can you identify who these senators and lobbyist are?

on the same token, since you say that there are american and european hedge funds who are causing all these evil deeds here in thailand, can you identify them so that ALL thais will know who they are?

to fight an evil, you must first know who you are fighting. right?

name the hedge funds.

being a small speck, I certainly cannot do much. but I am sure there are others with more "influence" who can.

expose the hedge funds.

Nick, You just don't get it do you? The United States Congress is so impetent and scared that they cannot pass legislation to regulate or at the very least lend some transparency to the hedge fund industry. In Eurpoe it is the same way, but at least the discussion seems to be "on the table" over there. These funds act with impunity and have absolutly no transparency so what do you think that you could possibly do? I tell you what if you check out the phone books for Darien conneticut, Boca Raton FL., northern N.J., Toronto Canada, Bermuda, the Bahanas, the cayman islands and Berlin you might have a good start as most of the power players in the hedge fund industry operate from these locals. Good luck my friend, perhaps you have the power to do what the U.S. congress obviously doesn't have the balls to attempt!

we only have your accusations. no proof. if you know personally ANY hedge funds who are causing these conspiracies as you claim they are doing, bring it out so that people can confront them.

as for the "other guy" who asked me how I "know" that there is a lot of anti-american sentiment here in thailand. you only have to read the newspapers here to get the general idea of what is going on. gee, you really don't need to go that far either. why, just read the replies from thais on thaivisa.

we are starting to get off-topic here. so, I will stop.

I agree with the above replies you got. and apart from you it seems that other members "dont get it"

Forex is the largest market in the world with a daily turn over of Trillions of dollars. not billions but trillions.

the largest players on this court are usualy central banks and heavy players in forex.

by the way the largest player by far is the US Federal Reserve. some would even go as far as saying that it is the Americans who by sheer ratio are actually controlling this market and do so to promote american interests.

The Hedge Funds and the private equiry funds have become in the last Few years very big players.

some of those funds are called by economists "dumb money" as the investors in those funds dont realy understand what it is the fund is investing in or where the mony is invested they just want to see profis at the end of the year.

Those large funds are making huge amounts of money. and it was published last week about the salaries that some of those hedge funds manages get they were in billions.

Edward S. Lampert made $1.02 billion, while his firm, ESL Investments, raked in a 69 percent return on investment.

Besides Lampert, others in the top 10 of hedge fund managers included James Simons of Renaissance Technologies, $670 million; Bruce Kovner of Caxton Associates, $550 million; Steven Cohen of SAC Capital Advisors, $450 million; David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, $420 million; George Soros of Soros Fund Management, $305 million (Soros was number one in 2003, with $750 million); Paul Tudor Jones II of Tudor Investment Corp., $300 million; Kenneth Griffin of Citadel Investment Group, $240 million; Raymond Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, $225 million; and Israel Englander of Millennium Partners, $205 million.

and that just the americans.

do you undesratand that those guys with those salaries are controlling billions dollar funds and the only objective they have is to make more money and have a bigger return.

Hedge-fund assets globally broke through the $1 trillion mark in July, 2004, with funds invested in Asia approaching 6% of that total.

Dozens of these funds have set up shop in Asia in the past 24 months, hoping to find lucrative opportunities outside the crowded capital markets in Europe and the United States. So why are they investing in Asia and in Thailand??? because the growth rate is better and the lack of monitary controls enable them to do ehat they want.

Aggressive hedge fund managers normally take positions designed to profit from a market decline if one is expected, and perhaps no market "correction" has been as widely anticipated as the latest one in March. Fund managers in Asia were warning of an imminent slide in markets as far back as December. What is surprising about the latest expected drop was how few hedge fund managers appeared to have taken such positions.

Instead, they were trying to take advantage of the bull market for Asian stocks and bonds.

Short-selling, or betting that stocks will fall, is not allowed in some Asian equity markets, but determined short-sellers can use financial derivatives and options to achieve the same effect. When stocks started to move down, though, investors will jumped out en masse, making drops even steeper.

do you understand they are actually going to win a lot of money by crashing the stocks?? do you understand that they are world wide players that can afford to loose in one game if they win more on another? do you understand that The Thai economy is nothing for them and with a single decision they can destroy the country and create another crisis and that at the end of the day they make more moeny from doing it??

But today it is not just the hedge funds that act like hedge funds It is also the proprietary desks of banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Because the banks' traders and hedge fund managers are compensated on the short-term trading profits they make they are not interested any more in Long term investments . they are playing god to other countris so the bonus at the ned of the year will be bigger.

the crisis is coming soon unless the thai govermant and infact every other asian country will take steps to controll forign investement and capital controll. Meanwhile, a 167 percent increase in Vietnam's benchmark stock market index has sparked fears that Hanoi will impose capital controls to keep foreign speculative investments out. Thailand put controls on incoming portfolio capital in December, although it has been relaxing them steadily since then due to international pressure by.... yes you are right those with the big salaries above.

you know... I still do not believe your story. rather, I do not want to believe your story. you would have to be one pretty sick person to want to destroy other people to make money.

dont be so naive people kill there mothers and fathers for money why should they care about you and me

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Ok back to Thailand I hope, the one thing that has amazed me since I really started watching this some six months ga ago, is the amount of opposing reports in the Bangkok Post and the Nation in the same day about the same subject.

One showing doom and gloom the other everything is great. .

The credibility of the Bangkok post and the Nation are both very questionable. I believe both newspapers are influenced by government interference and spin. The Bangkok post has a pretty abysmal record of this..just look at how easily the government was able to suppress the story on the runway cracks a year ago. Also watch how they seem to run contradicting news stories on the issues in Thailand. To get a more balanced point of view you should read a combination of news sources like BBC, Wall street journal, Asia times, the Economist, or financial dailies to discern what the real situation in Thailand is.

Edited by wintermute

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Thailand's overall competitiveness in 2007 dropped to among the worst in the Asia-Pacific region, according to the latest findings by the Switzerland-based Institute for Management Development (IMD). The IMD, in its 2007 World Competitiveness Yearbook, said Thailand ranked 33rd out of 55 economies surveyed, down from 29th place in 2006 and 25th in 2005.

Thailand must restore investor confidence, strengthen industrial competitiveness, reduce logistics costs, implement legal and regulatory reforms and bolster human resources, the report said.

Within Asia-Pacific, Thailand ranked 11th for 2007, down one spot from the year before and four spots down from seventh place in 2005.

Thailand's economic performance actually improved to 15th in 2007 from 19th the year before. Strengths included employment, the cost of living and tourism. Economic weaknesses included the volatile exchange rate, per capita GDP and a relatively low amount of direct investment abroad.

Government efficiency ratings slid seven spots to 27th for 2007. Central bank policy, government policy and political stability were all cited as weaknesses. Business efficiency fell to 34th from 25th, with the stock market, small business efficiency and productivity seen dragging down the ratings.

Thailand's infrastructure ratings also dropped to 48th for 2007 from 42nd last year. Health care, research and development spending and Internet penetration were all viewed as weak spots.

Among global economies, the United States remained the most competitive nation on the planet. Other regional economies, particularly Singapore, narrowed the gap with the United States. The island state's competitiveness rose to 99.121 points, close to the US benchmark of 100 points. Thailand scored 57.758.

As for others in the region, Hong Kong was the second most competitive at 93.541, followed by Australia with 82.387 and China at 79.484. Bringing up the rear were Indonesia at 37.410, the Philippines at 47.163, and Thailand. Japan was the region's biggest loser, falling to eighth spot in 2007 from fourth.

On a global scale, Hong Kong ranked third, followed by Luxembourg, Denmark, Switzerland and Iceland.

China came in at number 15, followed by Taiwan at 18 and Malaysia at 23.

Of the 55 economies ranked by the IMD, 40 are increasing or maintaining their competitiveness relative to the United States. Only 15 are losing ground.

[bangkpost 10 may]

The results of WCY :

The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2007 (WCY) analyses and ranks the ability of nations to create and maintain an environment that sustains the competitiveness of enterprises. Considered the worldwide reference point to world competitiveness, it has been published without interruption since 1989 and ranks 55 national economies using 323 criterias.

http://www.imd.ch/research/publications/wcy/announcing.cfm

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englishoak, how is the land of lollipops and rainbows?

who needs GDP when you have GDH, oops that is falling too.....

Thailand experiences falling Gross Domestic Happiness

The most recent survey showed that the Happiness Index for the Thai public plunged in coordination with the country's economy.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=29369

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The most recent survey showed that the Happiness Index for the Thai public plunged in coordination with the country's economy.

who 'd thought that ..............................................................

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englishoak,

you may have been able to run away from the west, but you can't run away from reality......

reality is delicious, have a taste......less rhetoric and more facts please.....

City office building market sluggish in 1st quarter

Supint Meechucheep, the company's president, said impacts of the political uncertainties on the property business had gained clear momentum as could be witnessed by a decline in consumer spending, investment, and business expansion by the private sector

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=29294

baring in mind that the whole world is suffering from a real estae slug in the 1st quarter. I think your above statement is not relevant . unless you are blaming the Thais for the fact the the USA and erutope are slow as well.

once again there are projects in bangkok that sell well and others that dont. and the fact that a president of one company is not doing well and blaming it on the econmy is not a beahvior limited to Thais only.

i have been following your posts and in many occasions you do have a valid point. however you tend to use a bashing anti thai form and post it over and over again. its a pity as you have some serious points to the discussion.

what? i am not talking about the US in the above post, the title of this forum is "Thai Economy in Crisis". Your pity is unecessary. You are the one living in denial. Thailand WAS a stable country on the uswing prior ot the coup, but no longer. If you think the pseudo-elections this year will be legitamized, you are kidding yourself. Your utter devotion to Thailand in the face of an obvious downturn deserves pity. Your vehement defense of Thailand in the face of obvious facts suggests you are codependent.

now back to the headlines........

Rally to seek removal of PM

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/13...cs_30034078.php

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Ok back to Thailand I hope, the one thing that has amazed me since I really started watching this some six months ga ago, is the amount of opposing reports in the Bangkok Post and the Nation in the same day about the same subject.

One showing doom and gloom the other everything is great. .

The credibility of the Bangkok post and the Nation are both very questionable. I believe both newspapers are influenced by government interference and spin. The Bangkok post has a pretty abysmal record of this..just look at how easily the government was able to suppress the story on the runway cracks a year ago. Also watch how they seem to run contradicting news stories on the issues in Thailand. To get a more balanced point of view you should read a combination of news sources like BBC, Wall street journal, Asia times, the Economist, or financial dailies to discern what the real situation in Thailand is.

I do read Bloomberg and the Itentional Herald Tribue, as well but that at seemed a good idea so added them Thanks

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