Amnesty 80% likely to be extended - Immigration Officer Phuket Today

[CorpusChristie]

23 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

"i felt a great disturbance in the force.. as if 1000s of tourists who'd paid off an agent suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced"

 

 

Or those who see September 26 th racing towards them , getting jittery and nervous and checking the price and availability of flights to Istanbul  and what the weathers like there during winter

[FlyingThai]

2 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

Or those who see September 26 th racing towards them , getting jittery and nervous and checking the price and availability of flights to Istanbul  and what the weathers like there during winter

I hope for their sake they have a thick sweater and closed shoes. ????

[finy]

I'm sure that immigration officer is desperate for the amnesty to be extended.

 

They've already cashed in with everyone paying agents for long term visas.

 

If they have to deal with embassy letters every month they'll be swamped.

 

Better to recommend extending the amnesty so they can chill out for the rest of the year.

[edwardandtubs]

88.2% of statistics are made up on the spot. (Vic Reeves)

[audaciousnomad]

2 hours ago, finy said:

I'm sure that immigration officer is desperate for the amnesty to be extended.

 

They've already cashed in with everyone paying agents for long term visas.

 

If they have to deal with embassy letters every month they'll be swamped.

 

Better to recommend extending the amnesty so they can chill out for the rest of the year.

 

I'm with you on this theory. If we just think about it, it makes total sense. If amnesty is gone, everyone will either leave, go covid extension with letter for 1900THB, or go on overstay at 500THB/day, capped at 20K.  The key is all that money goes to GOVT COFFERS, and NOT TO THE AGENTS.   Extending amnesty resets the cycle to where the IAC(Immigration-Agency-Complex) can once again put turn up the Volunteer/ED visa pressure valve midway before the new amnesty ends.  It is not in their financial interest to encourage the amnesty to end.

[DrJack54]

1 hour ago, audaciousnomad said:

It is not in their financial interest to encourage the amnesty to end

Point is immigration does not make these decisions re amnesty etc. It is the government. 

Take one country such as Australia. One could argue that the citizens of Oz had plenty of time to return. Fact is that currently it would be very difficult to obtain flight to Au. Max intake of 4000 per week. That's global. Yesterday the major airline that has flights to au have urged Au gov to increase reparation flights.

The Thai government is aware of all of this and also situation for many other countries. Of course imm does not give flying f about all of that.

Gov should ignore immigration recommendations. However we know 

Pigs (imm + gov)  want snouts in trough.

Edited September 12, 2020 by DrJack54

[fondue zoo]

The Aussie ambassador, in one of his recent videos. stated there is zero chance the Repatriation flights will be increased above 32 people per plane.

The current backlog is over 1000 people at the moment.

Edited September 12, 2020 by fondue zoo

[CorpusChristie]

5 hours ago, finy said:

I'm sure that immigration officer is desperate for the amnesty to be extended.

 

They've already cashed in with everyone paying agents for long term visas.

 

If they have to deal with embassy letters every month they'll be swamped.

 

Better to recommend extending the amnesty so they can chill out for the rest of the year.

I am quite sure that IO would prefer 1900B per month from "stranded" tourists , rather than getting no money at all 

[impulse]

12 minutes ago, fondue zoo said:

The Aussie ambassador, in one of his recent videos. stated there is zero chance the Repatriation flights will be increased above 32 people per plane.

The current backlog is over 1000 people at the moment.

 

As I recall, they've implemented and officially announced pretty much unlimited 30 day extensions for tourists in that situation.  So it's not as if an amnesty extension is required to accommodate people in that position. 

 

Maybe it'll happen.  Maybe not.  Over the years, I've seen many announcements by one official contradicted by an announcement by another the very next day.

 

[utalkin2me]

On 9/11/2020 at 4:36 PM, jackdd said:

In July Immigration advised the Cabinet to not extend the amnesty. Immigration will probably do the same this time (if the government should discuss a further extension)

If immigration would make the decision there would be no amnesty, but it's the Cabinet who decides and not immigration.

I wonder where he gets the 80% from.

He was probably told by a reliable source it was to be extended, with 100% certainty. He then rounded down 20% due to the "Thai effect". 

[warcy]

I doubt it.... a lot of foreigners are going to leave if they don't act earlier.

 

 

[Maestro]

2 hours ago, fondue zoo said:

...The current backlog is over 1000 people at the moment.

 

Is this 1000 Australians wanting to repatriate from Thailand alone or worldwide?

[JackThompson]

16 hours ago, Yorkshire Tea said:

If they relaxed the "income" method & granted extension based on average monthly deposits over 12 months it would help some of those on non O ME.  Those using this visa probably meet the 40,000bt per month, but have irregular cash transfers, ie transfer cash as needed.

Oh, you mean Follow the "average income" Rules as Written for those with Thai family?  Yes, that would be nice.  Also not demanding proof the income is a "state pension," as is done in some/many offices - just show the international-xfers and DONE. 

Then, do the same for those with Thai-incomes - Show The Income and DONE - no re-proving the work-permit isn't fake, pics in office, valid DBD docs stamped by a bank rejected, etc.

[jackdd]

11 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

I am quite sure that IO would prefer 1900B per month from "stranded" tourists , rather than getting no money at all 

They don't get a share of the 1900THB, this is why they are so relentless in causing trouble for people who dare to not use an agent. For the IOs it doesn't make a difference if you leave Thailand or if you get your extension without an agent (actually they would prefer that you leave, means less work for them, they have a job for life anyway), in either case they don't get money. If you use an agent they get paid.

[BritManToo]

16 hours ago, finy said:

I'm sure that immigration officer is desperate for the amnesty to be extended.

They've already cashed in with everyone paying agents for long term visas.

If they have to deal with embassy letters every month they'll be swamped.

Better to recommend extending the amnesty so they can chill out for the rest of the year.

Immigration are set up to deal with 40M customers a year.

How many of us are left?

Hardly swamped, even if we had to go to see them every week.

[sandyf]

On 9/11/2020 at 3:41 PM, darrendsd said:

It's just another are they going to extend the amnesty thread

 

Rumours help no one i'm afraid - let's wait for (any) official announcement

Announcements are merely a formality, quite often the decision has already been made. Looking at the wider picture can sometimes indicate the writing on the wall.

Recently there has been some changes to the government domestic tourist scheme to try and get more to participate but the one thing that hasn't changed is the end date. That may not mean anything but why would the government extend it to encourage people to book holidays in Phuket if there was some plan to turn it into a quarantine facility.

Thai airways said there would international flights starting in November, again may not mean anything but could be an indication of change.

If changes are in the wind, it would make sense for the government to wrap up the amnesty before any new regulations were put in place.

You are quite right to a certain extent, there is no problem waiting, if the waiting does not create a problem.

[Mike Teavee]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

Immigration are set up to deal with 40M customers a year.

How many of us are left?

Hardly swamped, even if we had to go to see them every week.

I would imagine that the vast majority of the 40 Million visitors to Thailand a year never see Immigration except when they enter/leave the country 

 

Having said that, it did feel like there were 7-8,000 in CW when I did my extension last year & maybe 7-800 on the same date this year. 

 

[fondue zoo]

11 hours ago, Maestro said:

 

Is this 1000 Australians wanting to repatriate from Thailand alone or worldwide?

I should of clarified, that number represents the number of people who have registered with the embassy and have not yet been granted a seat home.

You must be registered to get into the flights home lottery, get pricing details and updates etc.

 

At the same time they are saying Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines have flights back to Oz, so even if you are registered and can't get a seat, they strongly recommend finding another way. They have mentioned a few times they should not have to be giving out the "embassy letters". 

"You're Aussies, swim if you have to!"

 

 

Edited September 13, 2020 by fondue zoo
typo

[JackThompson]

1 hour ago, fondue zoo said:

They have mentioned a few times they should not have to be giving out the "embassy letters". 

"Should" has nothing to do with it.  Yes, it is a silly requrement - foreign countries do silly things, sometimes.  But their citizens are in Thailand, and setting up an auto-reply system, like the USA uses to return letters, is not so difficult.  

The same goes for all other countries being stingy about these "generic covid" letters.  What's the point?  It's easy goodwill with their expats do this.

[BritTim]

39 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

"Should" has nothing to do with it.  Yes, it is a silly requrement - foreign countries do silly things, sometimes.  But their citizens are in Thailand, and setting up an auto-reply system, like the USA uses to return letters, is not so difficult.  

The same goes for all other countries being stingy about these "generic covid" letters.  What's the point?  It's easy goodwill with their expats do this.

The problem is that once Immigration becomes aware that the embassy is handing out these letters on demand, without there being any justification other than "I would like to stay in Thailand", Immigration can stop accepting the letters. This can cause horrific problems for those who really are unable to leave.

[JackThompson]

51 minutes ago, BritTim said:

The problem is that once Immigration becomes aware that the embassy is handing out these letters on demand, without there being any justification other than "I would like to stay in Thailand", Immigration can stop accepting the letters. This can cause horrific problems for those who really are unable to leave.

My impression, is these 30-day stays replace the previous auto-extensions - a compromise with immigration.  The letter is just a formality.  

Immigration could already have required the letters state specific reasons, if that were their intent.  I am sure many in immigration would like to require this, but someone further up seems to have set this policy - likely because Thais are not being given a rough-time staying in our passport-countries, due to the myriad of 'covid related' complications with travel.

[Phillip9]

1 hour ago, BritTim said:

The problem is that once Immigration becomes aware that the embassy is handing out these letters on demand, without there being any justification other than "I would like to stay in Thailand", Immigration can stop accepting the letters. This can cause horrific problems for those who really are unable to leave.

That's extremely unlikely.  I am sure the embassies are in direct communication with the Thai government and have discussed for what reasons letters would be acceptable.  No diplomat is going to risk upsetting the host country just to try to let their citizens stay there a little longer.

[checkered flag]

1 hour ago, BritTim said:

The problem is that once Immigration becomes aware that the embassy is handing out these letters on demand, without there being any justification other than "I would like to stay in Thailand", Immigration can stop accepting the letters. This can cause horrific problems for those who really are unable to leave.

Just like the previous embassy income letters, it would seem. This followed some "you tube" videos on how to beat the system and TI made more rules (2 months before and 3 months after). TI pays attention and adjusts to schemes to work around the system. 

Short extensions might work this time but we'll have to see for how long. 

[Walker88]

29 minutes ago, Phillip9 said:

That's extremely unlikely.  I am sure the embassies are in direct communication with the Thai government and have discussed for what reasons letters would be acceptable.  No diplomat is going to risk upsetting the host country just to try to let their citizens stay there a little longer.

You are correct. The Chief Consular of the US Embassy would have visited Thai Immigration and informed them of the letter policy, even giving them a draft copy for tacit approval.

 

As for whether these letters will be accepted, absent a medical excuse or a flight availability excuse, the answer is likely "Yes", because many countries have afforded the same amnesty of sorts to Thai citizens who have been unable to return to LOS. Immigration will then decide if it grants, or refuses, an extension.

 

Immigration has the authority to grant, or refuse, extension requests, but the amnesty authority rests solely with the Cabinet, or even the PM. Immigration may have an opinion on amnesty, and will likely present that opinion to the Cabinet and PM, but the Tourism Authority, Hotel Association, etc. also will present a case for extending the amnesty and keeping 'stranded' tourists in country. Depending on who is most persuasive, the Cabinet and PM will issue a ruling.

 

Pure speculation on my part, but I would guess either the amnesty is extended until 26 December, or else a policy change is ordered by the Cabinet/PM to Immigration to allow a certain number of extensions for in-country 'stranded' tourists.

Edited September 13, 2020 by Walker88

[NanLaew]

On 9/11/2020 at 4:36 PM, jackdd said:

I wonder where he gets the 80% from.

More than 50/50 but not 100% sure.

[NanLaew]

15 hours ago, Maestro said:

18 hours ago, fondue zoo said:

...The current backlog is over 1000 people at the moment.

 

Is this 1000 Australians wanting to repatriate from Thailand alone or worldwide?

probably just from Thailand.

 

"According to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, there are now more than 25,000 Australians overseas who have registered an intention to return home, but who cannot access flights due to the government’s strict international arrival caps."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/13/australian-diplomats-sent-to-heathrow-airport-to-help-stranded-citizens-due-to-travel-caps

[fondue zoo]

2 hours ago, NanLaew said:

probably just from Thailand.

 

"According to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, there are now more than 25,000 Australians overseas who have registered an intention to return home, but who cannot access flights due to the government’s strict international arrival caps."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/13/australian-diplomats-sent-to-heathrow-airport-to-help-stranded-citizens-due-to-travel-caps

 

Correct, the 1000+ figure represents the people how have registered to return from Thailand but have not yet been able to get a seat on a repatriation flight to Oz.

 

[Maestro]

3 hours ago, NanLaew said:

probably just from Thailand.

 

"According to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, there are now more than 25,000 Australians overseas who have registered an intention to return home, but who cannot access flights due to the government’s strict international arrival caps."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/13/australian-diplomats-sent-to-heathrow-airport-to-help-stranded-citizens-due-to-travel-caps

 

Thank you.

[FlyingThai]

21 hours ago, fondue zoo said:

The Aussie ambassador, in one of his recent videos. stated there is zero chance the Repatriation flights will be increased above 32 people per plane.

The current backlog is over 1000 people at the moment.

This is absolutely nuts. But nothing surprises me about this nanny state.

[fondue zoo]

5 hours ago, FlyingThai said:

This is absolutely nuts. But nothing surprises me about this nanny state.

Along this line it is interesting to note that the media in Oz is beginning to take issue with the ban on outward travel. 90000+ requests since late March and only a quarter approved.