Amnesty 80% likely to be extended - Immigration Officer Phuket Today

[adrianb]

On 9/11/2020 at 7:04 PM, JeffersLos said:

I don't see it not being extended.

 

No borders are open.

Limited flights. People cannot just jump on a plane and fly home easily.

 

 

 

 

 

I hope so, not one of the three fliights I could jump on have left the country in the last 2 weeks. They are scheduled but are cancelled daily. I see flights actually leaving for Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and Oman. all useless destinations to me.

[Mike Teavee]

2 hours ago, adrianb said:

I hope so, not one of the three fliights I could jump on have left the country in the last 2 weeks. They are scheduled but are cancelled daily. I see flights actually leaving for Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and Oman. all useless destinations to me.

If you can't get a flight out then hopefully your Embassy will give you a letter confirming this and you'll be able to get a 30 day extension.

 

It costs nothing to ask whether they will provide a letter & to be prepared in case they don't extend the amnesty which despite the OP, I think is a high probability (& High Impact) risk especially for people on Tourist Visas, Visa Exempt, Visa on Arrival

 

If there is a further "Amnesty" I think it will be for people with Non-O's, Non-B's etc... or family ties to Thailand who for whatever reason cannot extend normally but much more likely these will not be automatically extended, but will need to go into Immigration & have extensions processed albeit with relaxed rules. 

 

Good Luck, it is looking much more positive that people will be able to find a way to extend (e.g. more embassies are giving out supporting letters, there's reports of Immigration offices saying they'll do multiple 60 day family extensions others are saying there will be news of some leeway on the financial rules for extending Non-Os (by tomorrow) .... The flip-side is the more "workarounds" they come up with for staying in Thailand, the less likely they will extend the amnesty, so IMHO people are going to have to take some action themselves or they'll be on overstay. 

 

It might help to share which country you're from, what "Visa" you used to enter Thailand & whether you have a Thai wife of Thai children as there may be other options available to you or maybe some of your countrymen can advise you re: flights.   

 

[checkered flag]

I'm having a little trouble understanding why so many Australians are stuck. Thailand has had about zero new Australian tourist coming in for almost 6 months and many must have already left on their own. The TI offices have repeatedly told those on tourist visa to convert to long term visa or move on. I would assume the numbers have been dwindling down over time and only the hard core who want to stay long term are left. Since border runs are not possible these people have few options. 

 

Maybe this is a unique Australian problem, because I think they closed their borders (or limited numbers) to returning Australians. If I were an Australian I'd immediately register at the Australian Embassy for a return flight and get a letter saying I did so. I would assume that TI would give you some time to get your flight, if done immediately. If one waits until Sept 26 TI probably wont be as understanding. 

I've had some friends go to Switzerland and the US recently on commercial flights without issue. The US embassy has said for months they can assist with travel back plans if necessary and have encourage citizens to act sooner than later. 

[fondue zoo]

Have any Aussies been issued the letter in the last few weeks after registering with the Embassy? 

It would be good to know how the embassy is responding to those requests. 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by fondue zoo

[DrJack54]

50 minutes ago, checkered flag said:

Maybe this is a unique Australian problem, because I think they closed their borders (or limited numbers) to returning Australians

AU currently has cap of 4000 entries (repatriation) per week. The Australian PM stated a couple of days ago that he hoped all Australians could RETURN BY XMAS.

The main airline that has flights has stated it may need to reduce flights to Au unless the number of passengers per flight is increased.

The individual state leaders control the numbers of quarantine hotel accommodation made available. Some states have closed domestic borders. Melbourne airport is closed to international passengers.

After the disaster in Melbourne where all the cases were traced back to quarantine hotels I am thinking that the supervision has been ramped up. Melbourne is currently in stage 4 lockdown. 

Bit unrelated but one reason that Thailand has made entry to Thailand (foreigners married to Thai etc) so difficult it that they cannot handle large numbers in quarantine. 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by DrJack54

[Wongkitlo]

2 hours ago, checkered flag said:

I'm having a little trouble understanding why so many Australians are stuck. Thailand has had about zero new Australian tourist coming in for almost 6 months and many must have already left on their own. The TI offices have repeatedly told those on tourist visa to convert to long term visa or move on. I would assume the numbers have been dwindling down over time and only the hard core who want to stay long term are left. Since border runs are not possible these people have few options. 

 

Maybe this is a unique Australian problem, because I think they closed their borders (or limited numbers) to returning Australians. If I were an Australian I'd immediately register at the Australian Embassy for a return flight and get a letter saying I did so. I would assume that TI would give you some time to get your flight, if done immediately. If one waits until Sept 26 TI probably wont be as understanding. 

I've had some friends go to Switzerland and the US recently on commercial flights without issue. The US embassy has said for months they can assist with travel back plans if necessary and have encourage citizens to act sooner than later. 

As you Said Australia has been limiting returns. Most bookings are cancelled.Unlike USA Australian Embassy are playing it hard on giving out letters. Thailand is only 6 hours flight from Australia- less to Phuket. In March Australian Government recommended that people stay where they are.

[fondue zoo]

1 hour ago, DrJack54 said:

Bit unrelated but one reason that Thailand has made entry to Thailand (foreigners married to Thai etc) so difficult it that they cannot handle large numbers in quarantine.

The Oz ambassador here also stated something similar about Australia not long ago.

[checkered flag]

14 minutes ago, Wongkitlo said:

As you Said Australia has been limiting returns. Most bookings are cancelled.Unlike USA Australian Embassy are playing it hard on giving out letters. Thailand is only 6 hours flight from Australia- less to Phuket. In March Australian Government recommended that people stay where they are.

IMO most tourist visit for 2-4 weeks and return home. Most probably have jobs and can't stay forever. Since it's been 6 months of extensions, I don't see why they haven't returned by now and should be quite low.

Frankly, I think most desire to stay long term and don't qualify and can't do border runs to extend. If the Australian embassy were to give them a letter stating that returning to Australia at this time was not possible, then TI might cut them some slack. I would assume this would include an agreement to leave as soon as return flights could be booked.

One would think citizens returning from Thailand with low Covid 19 would be welcomed first back home.

[JeffersLos]

While considering the likeliness of an amnesty extension, you also need to factor in Buddhist compassion and the karma they get for helping helping others.  

[JacksSmirkingRevenge]

Anyone else hearing any rumors and rumblings?  The more sources make it more likely.  

[Captain Monday]

8 hours ago, adrianb said:

I hope so, not one of the three flights I could jump on have left the country in the last 2 weeks. They are scheduled but are cancelled daily., I see flights actually leaving for Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and Oman. all useless destinations to me.

Where would you consider going? According to our latest bulletins non Singaporean still can't transit Changi and same for non Taiwan passport holders at Taipei.  Non nationals can transit Japan and Korea there are quite a few places you can get to. Canada, USA, AUS/NZ, EU, etc.

[CorpusChristie]

10 minutes ago, JacksSmirkingRevenge said:

Anyone else hearing any rumors and rumblings?  The more sources make it more likely.  

The only relevant thing is what decision the Cabinet makes , rumours count for nothing

[checkered flag]

1 hour ago, CorpusChristie said:

The only relevant thing is what decision the Cabinet makes , rumours count for nothing

I think you are continuing  to pick the bones clean. Their doesn't seem to be any meat left. Time to give it up.

[JackThompson]

22 hours ago, checkered flag said:

Just like the previous embassy income letters, it would seem. This followed some "you tube" videos on how to beat the system and TI made more rules (2 months before and 3 months after). TI pays attention and adjusts to schemes to work around the system. 

Short extensions might work this time but we'll have to see for how long. 

What previous embassy letters, and what do those have to do with "2 months before and 3 months after"?

[checkered flag]

4 hours ago, JackThompson said:

What previous embassy letters, and what do those have to do with "2 months before and 3 months after"?

The previous embassy letter to verify income seem to have been widely used by those lacking resources. This ended when TI said the embassies needed income verification, instead of a statutory statement sworn in front of the embassy official. That left those of us from the US, UK and Australia with a choice to show verified foreign transfers monthly of 40 or 65K to meet the obligation or to show either 400K or 800K in a Thai bank account. At the time many schemes to bypass this obligation so TI instigated requirement for 2 months before and 3 months after for retirement visa.

My comments were based on whenever TI tried to make a clear fair system, some people keep looking for ways around it. As a result the rules keep getting tighter.

If you remember back a few months people were getting turned down for "staying too long in Thailand" on a tourist visa and/or being denied repeat ED visas.

I think this is the start of cleaning up past abuses.

[JackThompson]

2 hours ago, checkered flag said:

The previous embassy letter to verify income seem to have been widely used by those lacking resources. This ended when TI said the embassies needed income verification, instead of a statutory statement sworn in front of the embassy official.

That left those of us from the US, UK and Australia with a choice to show verified foreign transfers monthly of 40 or 65K to meet the obligation ...

Immigration had a meeting with some embassy officials, and that resulted in some embassies (you correctly listed) not providing the letters any more.  But others still do stat-declarations (France, etc), and those holding those passports are still required to get those letters.

Note that those lying on a stat-dec could face serious charges both Thailand and their home country, and I am not aware of any reports of anyone being charged with this.

 

The good thing about the current USA letters for 30-day extensions -  there is no lying involved.  It makes no false claims.
 

2 hours ago, checkered flag said:

... or to show either 400K or 800K in a Thai bank account.

At the time many schemes to bypass this obligation so TI instigated requirement for 2 months before and 3 months after for retirement visa.

It was previously 3 months before.  Now, it is not just 800K 3 mo after, but 400K year-round.

 

Yet to spite the feigned concern about schemes, it is seems to only be a concern that some were Not Paying Immigration Through Agents, as that business never stopped; all the "seasoning" checks never and still do not apply to agent-envelope-money applications - including those distributed from the main office.
 

2 hours ago, checkered flag said:

My comments were based on whenever TI tried to make a clear fair system, some people keep looking for ways around it. As a result the rules keep getting tighter.

It's not about what we do.  Whenever they want more agent-money, they change the rules to force more people to agents - honest folks who could qualify under the previous rules.  The dishonest people have used agents throughout - and received VIP treatment for doing so.
 

2 hours ago, checkered flag said:

If you remember back a few months people were getting turned down for "staying too long in Thailand" on a tourist visa and/or being denied repeat ED visas.

I think this is the start of cleaning up past abuses.

Few foreigners "tricked" immigration regarding their applications - that would be dangerous.  The "abuses" were commited in direct-coordinaton with Immigration - via their agent-parners, including school-personnel acting as agents. 

Those using Tourist Visas frequently weren't abusing anything - they were simply "non-agent-envelope" visitors, whom Immigration resented for maintaining legal-stays an honest, way via the MFA.  Immigration have never tried to 'clean up' things - just increase their pocket-money by making things more 'dirty'.

[Joe Nee Appleseed]

If....and I mean if...there is going to be an amnesty extension...what is the likelihood it will be announced tomorrow or the 22nd?  

 

Not sure I'll have any nails left by the 21st...hehe

 

I have an Embassy letter but aware this might not work as a springboard...

[FlyingThai]

54 minutes ago, Joe Nee Appleseed said:

If....and I mean if...there is going to be an amnesty extension...what is the likelihood it will be announced tomorrow or the 22nd?  

 

Not sure I'll have any nails left by the 21st...hehe

 

I have an Embassy letter but aware this might not work as a springboard...

Either it's announced tomorrow or the 26th will remain the final date. It wouldn't make any sense to annouce an extension 2 days prior. Just my opinion (I've been wrong before).

[DrJack54]

Just now, FlyingThai said:

Either it's announced tomorrow or the 26th will remain the final date. It wouldn't make any sense to annouce an extension 2 days prior. Just my opinion (I've been wrong before).

Previous extensions have been announced week plus before. Tomorrow cabinet meeting. If no announcement Wednesday or Thursday then there will be no extension of amnesty. 

[JacksSmirkingRevenge]

11 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Previous extensions have been announced week plus before. Tomorrow cabinet meeting. If no announcement Wednesday or Thursday then there will be no extension of amnesty. 

Makes sense 

[checkered flag]

10 hours ago, JackThompson said:

Immigration had a meeting with some embassy officials, and that resulted in some embassies (you correctly listed) not providing the letters any more.  But others still do stat-declarations (France, etc), and those holding those passports are still required to get those letters.

Note that those lying on a stat-dec could face serious charges both Thailand and their home country, and I am not aware of any reports of anyone being charged with this.

 

The good thing about the current USA letters for 30-day extensions -  there is no lying involved.  It makes no false claims.
 

It was previously 3 months before.  Now, it is not just 800K 3 mo after, but 400K year-round.

 

Yet to spite the feigned concern about schemes, it is seems to only be a concern that some were Not Paying Immigration Through Agents, as that business never stopped; all the "seasoning" checks never and still do not apply to agent-envelope-money applications - including those distributed from the main office.
 

It's not about what we do.  Whenever they want more agent-money, they change the rules to force more people to agents - honest folks who could qualify under the previous rules.  The dishonest people have used agents throughout - and received VIP treatment for doing so.
 

Few foreigners "tricked" immigration regarding their applications - that would be dangerous.  The "abuses" were commited in direct-coordinaton with Immigration - via their agent-parners, including school-personnel acting as agents. 

Those using Tourist Visas frequently weren't abusing anything - they were simply "non-agent-envelope" visitors, whom Immigration resented for maintaining legal-stays an honest, way via the MFA.  Immigration have never tried to 'clean up' things - just increase their pocket-money by making things more 'dirty'.

I was just trying to explain what caused the present situation, that is a direct response to those seeking work around solutions. If people tried to direct their efforts straight on and meet the financial requirements, I can see little problems. If they can not they have few options, because the borders are still closed. Maybe consider a agent, but I have no experience.

BTW, I consider getting new visas yearly outside Thailand as a legal workaround but it was becoming increasingly difficult to do (from previous reports).

Some people on Ed visa studying in degree programs at Thai universities were always OK. However, multiple Ed visas for Muay Thai or stand alone language schools are suspect. That's why MFA staff sometimes tests applicant on their Thai language skills.

Sorry but I'm getting tired going back and forth on this issue. Best of luck with your problem and hope you are prepared for the consequences.

[Wongkitlo]

23 hours ago, checkered flag said:

IMO most tourist visit for 2-4 weeks and return home. Most probably have jobs and can't stay forever. Since it's been 6 months of extensions, I don't see why they haven't returned by now and should be quite low.

Frankly, I think most desire to stay long term and don't qualify and can't do border runs to extend. If the Australian embassy were to give them a letter stating that returning to Australia at this time was not possible, then TI might cut them some slack. I would assume this would include an agreement to leave as soon as return flights could be booked.

One would think citizens returning from Thailand with low Covid 19 would be welcomed first back home.

A lot of people come for long holidays. Retire and go on a trip around Asia. Kids go on a post university extended trip or just a long holiday. I was in the Koh Chang area not so long ago. A lot of people on the islands waiting it out. I think in Thailand we are a bit sheltered from things but the virus is still running rampant in US, Australia isn't great. Parts of Europe is having a second wave.

[Phillip9]

On 9/14/2020 at 11:06 AM, checkered flag said:

IMO most tourist visit for 2-4 weeks and return home. Most probably have jobs and can't stay forever. Since it's been 6 months of extensions, I don't see why they haven't returned by now and should be quite low.

Frankly, I think most desire to stay long term and don't qualify and can't do border runs to extend.

Most of us tourists still here were on extended long term world tours, and we are just still in thailand because there are not really any better options to go to, and our home counties are a covid mess with continued lockdowns.

 

There are still quite a few of us on the islands here, you might be surprised how many are left.  I personally have no desire to stay in thailand long term and will be glad to leave when things eventually return to normal.

[JackThompson]

3 hours ago, checkered flag said:

I was just trying to explain what caused the present situation, that is a direct response to those seeking work around solutions.

Yes - why I provided evidence it has nothing to do with our 'work arounds', at all. 
 

3 hours ago, checkered flag said:

...

Some people on Ed visa studying in degree programs at Thai universities were always OK. However, multiple Ed visas for Muay Thai or stand alone language schools are suspect. That's why MFA staff sometimes tests applicant on their Thai language skills.

They did change how non-formal school ED visas were processed.  Yet, as with other extension-types, "language tests," etc are skipped for "extra fees" to immigration.  The outcome was to increase those "extra fees," paid by the student, for honest applicants who really are attending - which was the goal. 

The solution is easy - ban "fixers" - yet that is never done - and each "crackdown" we have seen only increases fixer-envelope revenues. 

[checkered flag]

5 hours ago, JackThompson said:

Yes - why I provided evidence it has nothing to do with our 'work arounds', at all. 
 

They did change how non-formal school ED visas were processed.  Yet, as with other extension-types, "language tests," etc are skipped for "extra fees" to immigration.  The outcome was to increase those "extra fees," paid by the student, for honest applicants who really are attending - which was the goal. 

The solution is easy - ban "fixers" - yet that is never done - and each "crackdown" we have seen only increases fixer-envelope revenues. 

The reports here on TVF have indicated that ED visas have refused, but I haven't heard of extra fees required. Applications of those attending regular academic programs at Thai universities seem OK and in most cases handled through the university.  

[lovesthespicy]

Is that IO still saying 80%? 

[JacksSmirkingRevenge]

8 minutes ago, lovesthespicy said:

Is that IO still saying 80%? 

There is still time.  Not much.  And it's not looking good, but there is always hope until the very last day

[audaciousnomad]

8 hours ago, JackThompson said:

Yes - why I provided evidence it has nothing to do with our 'work arounds', at all. 
 

They did change how non-formal school ED visas were processed.  Yet, as with other extension-types, "language tests," etc are skipped for "extra fees" to immigration.  The outcome was to increase those "extra fees," paid by the student, for honest applicants who really are attending - which was the goal. 

The solution is easy - ban "fixers" - yet that is never done - and each "crackdown" we have seen only increases fixer-envelope revenues. 

Yes, they will never ban "fixers".  They will just increase the fees.  Greater risks = pay more money to play that game.

[BritTim]

3 hours ago, JacksSmirkingRevenge said:

There is still time.  Not much.  And it's not looking good, but there is always hope until the very last day

There is a chance (albeit very low) Thailand could reverse its decision even past the last day. The original amnesty was announced after March 26. However, the current decision says the amnesty ends September 26, and there is no current trustworthy evidence that the authorities are considering reversing themselves.

[GeorgeCross]

still have 11 days - plenty of time for Thailand to come to their collective senses