Chances of Brexit deal fading every day, EU Commission chief says

[JonnyF]

11 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

You dont understand do you? The EU has already accepted the UK is leaving.

Any shortfall in the EU budget will be offset by the tariffs collected on UK goods going to the EU.

Thats free money to the EU.

And who pays this "free money"? I'm sure the EU proles will be delighted that they're paying tariffs on those goods for the EU to collect and redistribute to their poorer neighbours as they see fit. I'm sure the French fisherman will be delighted that they've lost their jobs. The German car factory workers getting laid off because BMW, VW, Benz etc. are now all too expensive in the UK and we're buying Japanese and South Korean cars because THEY were happy to do a fair, balanced trade deal.

 

And all because of Barnier's intransigence. He's sure to be popular.????

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

And who pays this "free money"? I'm sure the EU proles will be delighted that they're paying tariffs on those goods for the EU to collect and redistribute to their poorer neighbours as they see fit. I'm sure the French fisherman will be delighted that they've lost their jobs. The German car factory workers getting laid off because BMW, VW, Benz etc. are now all too expensive in the UK and we're buying Japanese and South Korean cars because THEY were happy to do a fair, balanced trade deal.

 

And all because of Barnier's intransigence. He's sure to be popular.????

Fog in the channel. Europe cut off.

People living in the EU will be able to source alternatives to UK produce which will be tariff free. So probably not that much of a big deal for them.

Ah fishing. The Holy Grail of Brexiteers. Many of those French fishermen bought a quota license from UK fishermen. They will still be able to fish in UK waters.

The German car industry was quite clear. Protecting the single market was the priority for them. They will still have a domestic market of 350 million to sell cars to. But those car manufacturers in the UK are going to have a tough time. A small domestic market and tariffs to the EU. Ironically German car manufacturers might see increased car sales. Someone in the EU who is thinking of buying a Nissan for example can now get a German car for about the same price.

Balanced trade deal?

https://www.ft.com/content/edb7d155-56b4-4065-9f83-31b2247fa178

The UK’s new trade deal with Japan commits it to tougher restrictions on state aid than the ones it is currently offering the EU in the Brexit talks, potentially undermining its negotiating position with Brussels.

 

What was that thing you were saying about sovereignty?

 

[JonnyF]

10 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Fog in the channel. Europe cut off.

People living in the EU will be able to source alternatives to UK produce which will be tariff free. So probably not that much of a big deal for them.

Ah fishing. The Holy Grail of Brexiteers. Many of those French fishermen bought a quota license from UK fishermen. They will still be able to fish in UK waters.

The German car industry was quite clear. Protecting the single market was the priority for them. They will still have a domestic market of 350 million to sell cars to. But those car manufacturers in the UK are going to have a tough time. A small domestic market and tariffs to the EU. Ironically German car manufacturers might see increased car sales. Someone in the EU who is thinking of buying a Nissan for example can now get a German car for about the same price.

Balanced trade deal?

https://www.ft.com/content/edb7d155-56b4-4065-9f83-31b2247fa178

The UK’s new trade deal with Japan commits it to tougher restrictions on state aid than the ones it is currently offering the EU in the Brexit talks, potentially undermining its negotiating position with Brussels.

 

What was that thing you were saying about sovereignty?

 

Ah I see.

 

Tariffs on UK goods to the EU is great for the EU because it's "free money" for the EU and will stop EU citizens buying UK goods because they can buy them tariff free elsewhere.

 

But tariffs on EU goods to the UK is terrible for the UK because it increases prices for consumers but they will just continue to buy them at increased prices anyway even though they are available tariff free elsewhere.

 

Got it. ????

[nauseus]

12 hours ago, david555 said:

E.U. State of the Union 16 September  2020 
E.U. shall never backtrack on W.A. agreement

Well, she sort of has to say that, doesn't she? Interesting to see some MEPs giving her stick after her address, in which she basically admitted to being a left winger. Silly thing to do. 

[Rookiescot]

5 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Ah I see.

 

Tariffs on UK goods to the EU is great for the EU because it's "free money" for the EU and will stop EU citizens buying UK goods because they can buy them tariff free elsewhere.

 

But tariffs on EU goods to the UK is terrible for the UK because it increases prices for consumers but they will just continue to buy them at increased prices anyway even though they are available tariff free elsewhere.

 

Got it. ????

We will continue to buy them because we cant make the stuff ourselves.

The UK imports 40% of its food. Are you suddenly going to be able to get that domestically? 

Now these increased prices on stuff we really cant do without are going to cause inflation. Coupled with a shrinking economy.

 

[George Aylesham]

13 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Yep! And I am sure there is a song called Dreamer. ????

Your dear Mr. Johnson would rather commit suicide before that. 

 

13 hours ago, elliss said:

 OK , lets start with .

    Cornish pasties, 

    Cheddar cheese , 

    Haggis , oops thats Scottish ..555

Or die in a ditch as he already threatened over the Heathrow extension. Sadly he didn't keep his word.

[JonnyF]

12 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

We will continue to buy them because we cant make the stuff ourselves.

The UK imports 40% of its food. Are you suddenly going to be able to get that domestically? 

Now these increased prices on stuff we really cant do without are going to cause inflation. Coupled with a shrinking economy.

 

You appear to be forgetting that there are 166 countries not in the EU and 27 in it.

 

There are plenty of options of where to buy food and drink. Many of these countries we will have (or already have) FTA's with, which will make EU products comparatively more expensive.

 

The EU isn't the only shop in the village, as they're about to find out. There won't be a shortage of countries willing to sell us their produce, I can assure you.

 

The EU has a massive trade surplus with the UK. If they want to keep it, they can sign a fair, balanced FTA with us. If not, we'll buy from countries that will.

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, JonnyF said:

You appear to be forgetting that there are 166 countries not in the EU and 27 in it.

 

There are plenty of options of where to buy food and drink. Many of these countries we will have (or already have) FTA's with, which will make EU products comparatively more expensive.

 

The EU isn't the only shop in the village, as they're about to find out. There won't be a shortage of countries willing to sell us their produce, I can assure you.

 

The EU has a massive trade surplus with the UK. If they want to keep it, they can sign a fair, balanced FTA with us. If not, we'll buy from countries that will.

And you will be buying from those other countries under WTO rules. Which means tariffs. Also many of those countries are far further away which means increased shipping costs.

This is a list of FTA's we have ready for the end of December.

 

Andean countries

CARIFORUM trade bloc

Central America

Chile

Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) trade bloc 

Faroe Islands

Georgia

Iceland and Norway

Israel

Japan (Not ratified yet)

Jordan

Kosovo

Lebanon

Liechtenstein

Morocco

Pacific states

Palestinian Authority

Southern Africa Customs Union and Mozambique (SACUM) trade bloc

South Korea

 

Wow. Some big hitters on that list aint there? Should be more than capable of making up the shortfall leaving the EU is going to cause.

You are not getting a FTA with the EU because you do not want to abide by the EU's rules. Its that simple.

This was always going to be the case. In trade negotiations the big party dictates to the small party whats acceptable.

The UK did that for hundreds of years. Its ironic now the shoe is on the other foot aint it?

[JonnyF]

33 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

And you will be buying from those other countries under WTO rules. Which means tariffs. Also many of those countries are far further away which means increased shipping costs.

This is a list of FTA's we have ready for the end of December.

 

Andean countries

CARIFORUM trade bloc

Central America

Chile

Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) trade bloc 

Faroe Islands

Georgia

Iceland and Norway

Israel

Japan (Not ratified yet)

Jordan

Kosovo

Lebanon

Liechtenstein

Morocco

Pacific states

Palestinian Authority

Southern Africa Customs Union and Mozambique (SACUM) trade bloc

South Korea

 

Wow. Some big hitters on that list aint there? Should be more than capable of making up the shortfall leaving the EU is going to cause.

You are not getting a FTA with the EU because you do not want to abide by the EU's rules. Its that simple.

This was always going to be the case. In trade negotiations the big party dictates to the small party whats acceptable.

The UK did that for hundreds of years. Its ironic now the shoe is on the other foot aint it?

For a start, we have over 3 months left to sign additional trade deals.

 

Secondly, a lot of those 166 countries outside the EU have prices a lot cheaper than the EU due to lower production costs. This cheaper purchasing price can easily offset the higher shipping cost. If we have an FTA with them it will be even cheaper. If we don't have an FTA then we'll pay a tariff whether it's from them or from the EU so no incentive to buy from the EU at higher prices. Look at the prices of Chinese goods for example. Massively cheaper than European equivalents.

 

China and the EU do a Billion Euros a day trade with no FTA. You are massively over inflating the importance of FTA's. I repeat, a Billion Euros a day with NO FTA. Yeah, trading on WTO is going to be a real disaster lol.

 

If the EU want to offer a fair and sensible FTA then great. If they want to use the possibility of one to blackmail us into handing over UK sovereignty to them then they can go swivel on my middle finger.

 

Like a broken clock, even your favourite left wing rag gets it right sometimes.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/04/customs-union-soft-brexit-trade-goods

 

[Proboscis]

14 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

the eu pigs are spewing even more bile as they near the cutoff date and their cash cow UK is gone forever.. the germans will have to make up the shortfall and they dont like it

I thing you might be mistaken. You must remember that the EU (which means the other member states tax payers) have had to pay just one country, the UK, a rebate ever since Mrs Thatcher demanded it and got it based on the negotiation tactics that were available at the time. Yes, that is a rebate, in 2018 of 6.6billion Euros. After leaving, there will be no rebate money going from the EU to the UK. THe British taxpayers will have to make up that shortfall themselves. Britain had an excellent deal that other countries were envious of. Now they have a shortfall.

 

Look, no one is absolutly delighted with their government and there are plenty of complaints against each member state government and the EU commission too. But member state citizens do know where their bread is buttered. Of course, post Brexit the French may have to pay more for their shrimp and the Dutch for their white fish. But the cars can be made elsewhere and Europeans will console themselves with craft beer and sharp cheese that is not made in the UK if the UK product is not available or too expensive. The Irish will suffer most as they will have to either face enormous delays when sending their products out of the EU (into the UK) and then back into the EU (when they leave the UK) due to geography but I hear that they have already purchased large "RoRo" ships to bring trucks straight from the Republic to mainland Europe. Besides the Irish still remember the export cartels that drove down agricultural prices they faced from independence until they joined the EEC - on joining the EEC the price of cattle doubled, doubled again within 6 months and jumped again soon afterwards.

 

And so life, post-Brexit, will go on. The approx 450 million people of the EU will carry on while the 65 million of the UK will probably get poorer. I say probably but with Covid-19 this is so close to certainty that you would be hard pressed to get a bookie to give you odds. But remember, not a single person left in the EU wanted the UK to leave and no one outside the UK pressured you into it.

[Sheryl]

Flaming/baiting posts removed.

[nauseus]

43 minutes ago, Proboscis said:

I thing you might be mistaken. You must remember that the EU (which means the other member states tax payers) have had to pay just one country, the UK, a rebate ever since Mrs Thatcher demanded it and got it based on the negotiation tactics that were available at the time. Yes, that is a rebate, in 2018 of 6.6billion Euros. After leaving, there will be no rebate money going from the EU to the UK. THe British taxpayers will have to make up that shortfall themselves. Britain had an excellent deal that other countries were envious of. Now they have a shortfall.

 

Look, no one is absolutly delighted with their government and there are plenty of complaints against each member state government and the EU commission too. But member state citizens do know where their bread is buttered. Of course, post Brexit the French may have to pay more for their shrimp and the Dutch for their white fish. But the cars can be made elsewhere and Europeans will console themselves with craft beer and sharp cheese that is not made in the UK if the UK product is not available or too expensive. The Irish will suffer most as they will have to either face enormous delays when sending their products out of the EU (into the UK) and then back into the EU (when they leave the UK) due to geography but I hear that they have already purchased large "RoRo" ships to bring trucks straight from the Republic to mainland Europe. Besides the Irish still remember the export cartels that drove down agricultural prices they faced from independence until they joined the EEC - on joining the EEC the price of cattle doubled, doubled again within 6 months and jumped again soon afterwards.

 

And so life, post-Brexit, will go on. The approx 450 million people of the EU will carry on while the 65 million of the UK will probably get poorer. I say probably but with Covid-19 this is so close to certainty that you would be hard pressed to get a bookie to give you odds. But remember, not a single person left in the EU wanted the UK to leave and no one outside the UK pressured you into it.

The fact the Thatcher manged to get a rebate proves that we were being ripped off from the start.

 

Blair manged to give some of this back and if we had stayed in then it would have disappeared entirely. 

 

Your rebate figure is wrong, as is your so-called "shortfall" theory - if we pay no contributions we will keep about 13 billion straight away.

Edited September 17, 2020 by nauseus

[Rookiescot]

53 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

For a start, we have over 3 months left to sign additional trade deals.

 

Secondly, a lot of those 166 countries outside the EU have prices a lot cheaper than the EU due to lower production costs. This cheaper purchasing price can easily offset the higher shipping cost. If we have an FTA with them it will be even cheaper. If we don't have an FTA then we'll pay a tariff whether it's from them or from the EU so no incentive to buy from the EU at higher prices. Look at the prices of Chinese goods for example. Massively cheaper than European equivalents.

 

China and the EU do a Billion Euros a day trade with no FTA. You are massively over inflating the importance of FTA's. I repeat, a Billion Euros a day with NO FTA. Yeah, trading on WTO is going to be a real disaster lol.

 

If the EU want to offer a fair and sensible FTA then great. If they want to use the possibility of one to blackmail us into handing over UK sovereignty to them then they can go swivel on my middle finger.

 

Like a broken clock, even your favourite left wing rag gets it right sometimes.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/04/customs-union-soft-brexit-trade-goods

 

The EU does a billion euros a day with China. In a whole year we export to them 30 billion pounds in trade (4.4% of our total exports). They sell us 49 billion (6.8% of our total imports) . They are our 6th largest trading partner and yet another country WE have a trade deficit with. If China wants British goods and services its already getting them. We are not going to massively increase our trade with them overnight to compensate for the loss of trade we are going to experience with the EU. 

BTW a lot of our "exports" to China are financial services. If the EU does refuse to allow passporting from the City into the EU then those financial institutions are going to move to the EU. That means what used to be trade from us moves to the EU. Another big chunk of free money for the EU which we lose.

We will find out in three months wont we.

I am sure my version of events will be far closer to reality than your optimism and bluster. 

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

The EU does a billion euros a day with China. In a whole year we export to them 30 billion pounds in trade (4.4% of our total exports). They sell us 49 billion (6.8% of our total imports) . They are our 6th largest trading partner and yet another country WE have a trade deficit with. If China wants British goods and services its already getting them. We are not going to massively increase our trade with them overnight to compensate for the loss of trade we are going to experience with the EU. 

BTW a lot of our "exports" to China are financial services. If the EU does refuse to allow passporting from the City into the EU then those financial institutions are going to move to the EU. That means what used to be trade from us moves to the EU. Another big chunk of free money for the EU which we lose.

We will find out in three months wont we.

I am sure my version of events will be far closer to reality than your optimism and bluster. 

I wasn't suggesting that China was going to make up 100% of any shortfall we experience with the EU. After all, they are just one of 166 countries outside the EU (PS don't mention this to anyone but there are only a handful of countries inside the EU with sizable economies anyway, which is why the UK economy is bigger than the smallest 18 EU countries combined. Not such an insignificant minnow eh!).

 

I mentioned the Billion Euros a day to highlight that vast, huge, gigantic, gargantuan amounts of trade are possible between countries without an FTA.

 

But then you already knew that, and chose to ignore the point and deflect, since it disproves your "no FTA = Cliff edge" nonsense.

[Rookiescot]

15 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

I wasn't suggesting that China was going to make up 100% of any shortfall we experience with the EU. After all, they are just one of 166 countries outside the EU (PS don't mention this to anyone but there are only a handful of countries inside the EU with sizable economies anyway, which is why the UK economy is bigger than the smallest 18 EU countries combined. Not such an insignificant minnow eh!).

 

I mentioned the Billion Euros a day to highlight that vast, huge, gigantic, gargantuan amounts of trade are possible between countries without an FTA.

 

But then you already knew that, and chose to ignore the point and deflect, since it disproves your "no FTA = Cliff edge" nonsense.

It is you who are refusing to accept that we already trade with those 166 countries not in the EU you get so excited by.

Those countries are already buying the UK stuff that they want. They are not going to buy more just because we left the EU. So where are we going to make up the expected loss of trade with the EU?

The answer is we cant.

[dunroaming]

16 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

And Boris makes the situation worse every day. And the UK voters wanted Boris and Brexit. Amazing UK.

I wish them good luck. They will need a lot of that.

 

 

Not everyone wanted Boris and half the country didn't want Brexit.  Johnson won the last election for various different reasons based on his usual lies and false promises, helped massively by a pathetic opposition party.  He ended up with a massive majority which means he can pretty much push through anything he wants to and the British people can only sit on their hands and rue the day they allowed this to happen.  Truly shameful.

 

However now Johnson has had a warning from the USA that if he continues on his quest to break international law and jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement,  they will block any trade deals with the US.  Raab is in Washington now squirming away trying to assure them that it isn't going to happen.  Also last night Johnson was rowing back furiously on the threat himself.  We can expect yet another U-turn no doubt.

 

And under pressure Boris admitted that the world beating track and trace system he lauded was failing miserably.  He was also forced to admit that they had failed on their testing facilities which is crippling the countries efforts to get back to some sense of normal.  We can expect harsher shut down restrictions to come later today.  Johnson and his cronies have failed on everything so far and there is nothing to indicate that is going to change anytime soon.

 

 

[RayC]

4 hours ago, nauseus said:

Well, she sort of has to say that, doesn't she?

She's head of the European Commission, so you would certainly expect her to make factually correct statements. And she did.

4 hours ago, nauseus said:

Interesting to see some MEPs giving her stick after her address, in which she basically admitted to being a left winger. Silly thing to do. 

And you deduced that from the clip? She's a strange sort of 'left winger' given that she's a member of the centre-right CDU!

[Loiner]

17 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

Boris has proven he has no intention of keeping his?

Boris: “I will get Brexit done.”

 

UK: “Thanks Boris that’s the only promise we need and it’s happening now.”

[Loiner]

42 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

 

However now Johnson has had a warning from the USA that if he continues on his quest to break international law and jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement,  they will block any trade deals with the US.  Raab is in Washington now squirming away trying to assure them that it isn't going to happen.  Also last night Johnson was rowing back furiously on the threat himself.  We can expect yet another U-turn no doubt.

 

 

Looks like Pelosi's threat means nowt.

And Biden, the next loser, has been told to stay out of it because he doesn't know what he's talking about anyway.

[puipuitom]

19 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Yes, and it´s only UK that is hurting out of that result. Maybe even the pound is going to fall a little bit more. Sometimes it makes one wonder how much the citizens of the UK can take?

Politically: as in the times of Oliver Cromwell, economically: back to the times of Alfred the Great.

[puipuitom]

19 hours ago, scammed said:

a devalued pound might just be what england need

to be competitive.

nations cant just devalue on a whim these days,

but with this method no one can raise objection,

and england can export on the cheap

Look to what happened the last years: when the UK was invited to join the €uro, 1 GBP = € 1,71. In 2016: € 1,35-1,40, April-Aug € 1,12-1,13 and at present € 1,08-1,09. In my young years... 1 GBP was even DM 9,70 or.. € 4,88

[puipuitom]

19 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Export what?

And by the way its UK not England.

For the moment: yes, but when the Scots, Irish and Welsh are clever... they form this year with Eire the "Gaelic Confederation... just like Belgium: 4 nations in one EU membership. Maybe the City of London wants to join ?

Edited September 17, 2020 by puipuitom

[bannork]

16 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Looks like Pelosi's threat means nowt.

And Biden, the next loser, has been told to stay out of it because he doesn't know what he's talking about anyway.

You'll have to pray Trump, the world's most prolilfc liar, wins the election, but then who could vote for such a man? Only deplorables and surely the UK Brexiteers on TV are at least cut above them?

But it's not only Trump of course, the bill would have to pass Congress currently with a Dem majority and they have said no too if the Good Friday agreement is jeopardized 

[Nigel Garvie]

15 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Looks like Pelosi's threat means nowt.

And Biden, the next loser, has been told to stay out of it because he doesn't know what he's talking about anyway.

It is Congress that agrees trade deals, not the secretary of state Pompeo, no chance the Dems will lose the house in November. Please do your homework.

 

[bannork]

5 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

For the moment: yes, but when the Scots, Irish and welsh are clever... they form this year with Eire the "Gaelic Confederation... just like Belgium: 4 nations in one EU membership.

Now that's a good idea. 

[puipuitom]

1 hour ago, dunroaming said:

Not everyone wanted Boris and half the country didn't want Brexit.  Johnson won the last election for various different reasons based on his usual lies and false promises, helped massively by a pathetic opposition party.  He ended up with a massive majority which means he can pretty much push through anything he wants to and the British people can only sit on their hands and rue the day they allowed this to happen.  Truly shameful.

 

However now Johnson has had a warning from the USA that if he continues on his quest to break international law and jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement,  they will block any trade deals with the US.  Raab is in Washington now squirming away trying to assure them that it isn't going to happen.  Also last night Johnson was rowing back furiously on the threat himself.  We can expect yet another U-turn no doubt.

 

And under pressure Boris admitted that the world beating track and trace system he lauded was failing miserably.  He was also forced to admit that they had failed on their testing facilities which is crippling the countries efforts to get back to some sense of normal.  We can expect harsher shut down restrictions to come later today.  Johnson and his cronies have failed on everything so far and there is nothing to indicate that is going to change anytime soon.

 

 

The "cleverness" of the British election system: the winner takes it all.

That the British, after over 25 years experience with Boris the Liar, still voted for him.... that's something we will see the coming 6 months... WTO "third country" import duty, outside all EU combined organisations, Schengen visa, international driver licence + insurances

[RuamRudy]

1 hour ago, Loiner said:

Boris: “I will get Brexit done.”

 

UK: “Thanks Boris that’s the only promise we need and it’s happening now.”

*37% of the UK - although that was at the time of the vote. Support probably much lower now. 

[dunroaming]

26 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Boris: “I will get Brexit done.”

 

UK: “Thanks Boris that’s the only promise we need and it’s happening now.”

Boris:   “We are getting ready to come out on October the 31st…Do or die, come what may”

Boris:   “There are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay. We are leaving on 31 October, no ifs or buts” (2 September, speaking in Downing Street)

Boris: “I am confident of getting a deal. We will leave on 31 October in all circumstances. There will be no further pointless delay.” (3 September, speech in Commons)

Boris:  "We could construct a relationship with the EU that more closely resembled that of Norway or Switzerland — except that we would be inside the single market council, and able to shape legislation". (2013)

 

Problem with Boris is that you can never believe a word he says.

 

 

[puipuitom]

18 hours ago, kingdong said:

cheaper than buying a white elephant,ie the uks membership fees into barniers gang boyo.

Do not worry: a 3% over the British export ( 290 Billion GBP) into the EU is more than enough ( cars + industrial output a 10 % ) .... and a lot better for the EU

[dunroaming]

28 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Looks like Pelosi's threat means nowt.

And Biden, the next loser, has been told to stay out of it because he doesn't know what he's talking about anyway.

And you actually believe that Trump will win the election in November  ????????????????????????

 

Thanks for the laugh!