Thailand let 180.000.000.000 baht fly away ?

[finnsk]

With one hand the government is buzy to make small entry visa for high spenders, which maybe will not work at all, with the other hand they are buzy to kick a lot of middle spenders, covid free farrangs, out of the country, spenders which are sure income for Thailand.

 

But the government do not seems to have any concerns about the money they are going to lose.

 

Nobody outside the government/IM know the exact numbers of farrangs who must leave the country before 26 september.

 

I was making a little calculation, without any proof of the numbers. If around 50.000 farrangs had to leave Thailand before 26 september, they use around 30000 baht or more every month the the country will lose 180,000,000,000 baht a year.

 

This calculation is very unsafe but maybe there is some political signal in this, the government do not want the long stayers, which live here permanent like a sort of residents, they are ready to pay this price to get them out of the country.

 

One thing is the many farrangs they are kicking out now, the other thing is reputation the country will get between farrangs, I mean, many people will begin to talk, do not go to live in Thailand.

 

There is a lot of other countries in tropic areas with low living costs like Thailand, who offers better retirement conditions. Thailand had historical reasons to be a place where many retirements where looking/going to, but with a bad reputation, this is going to be washed away. 

 

Many thai woman where before Covid going out in the world for work/marriage, later they normally went back to thailand with a farrang and his income/money, under the covid this traffic is stopped, and the new money from this is stopped, will it start again or will it reach the same numbers as before, I am not sure.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FlyingThai]

A lot of speculation in this post and who told you this fantasy that Thai women go husband shopping overseas and then said man returns to Thailand with her? ????

[CorpusChristie]

Retirement visas can be got from inside Thailand , no one is getting kicked out .

It just the people who were pushing their luck and hoping to get a free visa amnesty extension who are having to leave .

  Every Country has a visa policy and everyone has to leave that Country when their visa expires 

[CorpusChristie]

7 minutes ago, finnsk said:

Many thai woman where before Covid going out in the world for work/marriage, later they normally went back to thailand with a farrang and his income/money, under the covid this traffic is stopped, and the new money from this is stopped, will it start again or will it reach the same numbers as before, I am not sure.

Many thai woman where before Covid going out to Pattaya for work/marriage, later they normally went back to Issan with a farrang and his income/money,

[checkered flag]

I don't know where you dreamt up your numbers, but they don't ring true to me. Those staying long term should be OK on a Non O marriage or retirement visa and extension. Real tourist on the other hand are long gone as evidence in empty tourist areas and hotel vacancies. That only leave the group that just wants to stay in Thailand by any means possible. These are he border bump crowd, who get phoney ed visas or whatever. Their gig is about to end, IMO. 

IMO, this last group feels they contribute a lot to the economy but really don't. They live as cheap as possible and don't add much (if at all).

If one has the means an Elite Visa is available for about 500K baht for 5 years. That's about $15,000 or $3,000/year. If that's beyond one's means their contribution to the Thai economy must be very little.

[Resident Alien]

Are you sure your calculations are right?

50.000 x 30.000 x 12 = 

[checkered flag]

2 minutes ago, Resident Alien said:

Are you sure your calculations are right?

50.000 x 30.000 x 12 = 

An Elite visa is reported to cost 500K and is good for 5 years.  That's about $15k dollars. Divided by 5 years is about $3k/year (US dollars). I don't know if a yearly fee is on top of this on top of this. I don't know the details, but if someone needs to stay it's a possibility. 

Maybe if you research it you'll find out something different, but this is my understanding.

[Resident Alien]

6 minutes ago, checkered flag said:

An Elite visa is reported to cost 500K and is good for 5 years.  That's about $15k dollars. Divided by 5 years is about $3k/year (US dollars). I don't know if a yearly fee is on top of this on top of this. I don't know the details, but if someone needs to stay it's a possibility. 

Maybe if you research it you'll find out something different, but this is my understanding.

I was referring to finnsk OP calculations. No yours.

FYI: No yearly fee for 5Y Elite visa.

[Lolothai]

The GDP of 2019 is 543 Billions, forecast for 2020 is 528 Billions. So I doubt the 180 Billions estimation is correct. Thailand will still be on the record low growth. I think you are right about keeping the long stay foreigner who are spending money here but what benefit Thai people is not the same thing as what benefit the government. If the money is not going straight to their pocket then it's useless money.

[FlyingThai]

9 minutes ago, checkered flag said:

An Elite visa is reported to cost 500K and is good for 5 years.  That's about $15k dollars. Divided by 5 years is about $3k/year (US dollars). I don't know if a yearly fee is on top of this on top of this. I don't know the details, but if someone needs to stay it's a possibility. 

Maybe if you research it you'll find out something different, but this is my understanding.

500,000 Baht are $16,050 right now. Only the top tier 20 year option has an annual fee.

[Sambotte]

Looks like 18 billion, not 180.

Still... interesting.

[checkered flag]

4 minutes ago, Resident Alien said:

I was referring to finnsk OP calculations. No yours.

FYI: No yearly fee for 5Y Elite visa.

Thanks, I think he has a wild imagination. 

[Lolothai]

3 minutes ago, Sambotte said:

Looks like 18 billion, not 180.

Still... interesting.

More the growth was around 40-50 billions per years the last few years so you can add this. That would be around 70 Billions loss. If there was an economist on Thai visa he could give an interesting answer.

[Sambotte]

Still probable gouvernement will make a last minute annoncement.

Amnesty not sure.

Extension with fee but no letter maybe.

The point is they approved the new tourist visa 9 months. Would look incredibly stupid to not allow foreigners already here to get this visa. Like NOW.

 

Otherwise yep Thailand will lose a LOT of money, and face / reputation.

Any 3+ digit number of foreigners forced to urgently exit the country on 26 would make the news i guess.

Is the all-in on chineese packs worth that ? I always said it's a very risky bet...

[checkered flag]

9 minutes ago, Sambotte said:

Looks like 18 billion, not 180.

Still... interesting.

The 50K falongs that must leave is what I doubt. 

[glegolo]

7 minutes ago, checkered flag said:

Thanks, I think he has a wild imagination. 

I tend to agree,,,,, I have no problem with Thailand and their politics, when it comes to this stuff with "out with the falangs".... Like someone said earlier... The ones that has to go, is anyhow these that really shouldn´t be here in the first place at this time...

 

Get your VISA/extensions in order and stay, if not leave.. easy pesey...

 

glegolo

[rvaviator]

32 minutes ago, checkered flag said:

I don't know where you dreamt up your numbers, but they don't ring true to me. Those staying long term should be OK on a Non O marriage or retirement visa and extension. Real tourist on the other hand are long gone as evidence in empty tourist areas and hotel vacancies. That only leave the group that just wants to stay in Thailand by any means possible. These are he border bump crowd, who get phoney ed visas or whatever. Their gig is about to end, IMO. 

IMO, this last group feels they contribute a lot to the economy but really don't. They live as cheap as possible and don't add much (if at all).

If one has the means an Elite Visa is available for about 500K baht for 5 years. That's about $15,000 or $3,000/year. If that's beyond one's means their contribution to the Thai economy must be very little.

I think you are right that they may not add much - But do they do any harm ?  Do they at least ad something to the economy or 'person next door' selling noodle ...  If the answer is yes .. then why kick them out ?

 

If they do something illegal - or 'do real harm to the country' .. Scams etc .. Then deal with them accordingly.  But kicking them does not sound like a good idea right now ...

 

What does Thailand gain by kicking them out?

[ezzra]

Had you have converted this number in grilled chickens and bowls of som tam that would have understood better...

[steven100]

OP ;  your post is irrelevant, you have a vivid imagination,  as you can use any numbers or quote various types of visas.  It's not correct and only your interpretation and guessing.  

 

[Lolothai]

Also western tourists are a minority compared to other tourists and the spending of long stay foreigners is off radars, all the houses and lands bought in the name of the wives for example. So I don't see how it's possible to know exactly how much they would lose by losing the western long stay foreigners. It still seems that most of the tourism money comes from China, ASEAN, malaysia, india etc

 

[kingofthemountain]

12 minutes ago, rvaviator said:

I think you are right that they may not add much - But do they do any harm ?  Do they at least ad something to the economy or 'person next door' selling noodle ...  If the answer is yes .. then why kick them out ?

 

If they do something illegal - or 'do real harm to the country' .. Scams etc .. Then deal with them accordingly.  But kicking them does not sound like a good idea right now ...

 

What does Thailand gain by kicking them out?

All authoritarians regimes and police states like Thailand needs scapegoats

to drive on the anger of the locals and usually foreigners are perfect for this role

[checkered flag]

16 minutes ago, rvaviator said:

I think you are right that they may not add much - But do they do any harm ?  Do they at least ad something to the economy or 'person next door' selling noodle ...  If the answer is yes .. then why kick them out ?

 

If they do something illegal - or 'do real harm to the country' .. Scams etc .. Then deal with them accordingly.  But kicking them does not sound like a good idea right now ...

 

What does Thailand gain by kicking them out?

If their visa expires they aren't really "kicked out" they lose their permission to stay.

[checkered flag]

6 minutes ago, Lolothai said:

Also western tourists are a minority compared to other tourists and the spending of long stay foreigners is off radars, all the houses and lands bought in the name of the wives for example. So I don't see how it's possible to know exactly how much they would lose by losing the western long stay foreigners. It still seems that most of the tourism money comes from China, ASEAN, malaysia, india etc

 

No one said anything about "long term" visa that are legitimately done. This is about those who have expired visa and now must leave.  

[Wongkitlo]

1 hour ago, FlyingThai said:

A lot of speculation in this post and who told you this fantasy that Thai women go husband shopping overseas and then said man returns to Thailand with her? ????

I met my wife overseas and then moved back to Thailand so not a complete fantasy

[Poet]

The Thai economy has already been thrown from a balcony but the elites think everything is fine because they have not yet hit the ground.

Very simply: Every Westerner in Thailand is adding something, even if it is just propping up his local shops, restaurants, and bars. The Thai economy has grown dependent on the money flowing in from mass tourism over the past half century. That has collapsed and the resulting tsunami is going to crash through the entire economy. So, right now, even the despised "kee nok farang" is providing income that the businesses of Thailand and workers desperately need.

An agile and smart response to the unfolding economic crisis would be to immediately grant all foreigners currently in Thailand and, presumably, Covid-free, permission to remain for as long as they want to keep spending money here and normal tourism remains below the level the economy actually requires. As far as I can figure out, we're not going to see anything approaching even vaguely normal tourism until 2024 and we certainly won't see 2019 level at any point during this decade.

 

Edited September 17, 2020 by Poet

[Poet]

1 hour ago, FlyingThai said:

A lot of speculation in this post and who told you this fantasy that Thai women go husband shopping overseas and then said man returns to Thailand with her? ????

My partner spent years searching the world for the most perfect specimen of caucasian before hearing about Ireland.

 

[Lolothai]

3 minutes ago, Poet said:

The Thai economy has already been thrown from a balcony but the elites think everything is fine because they have not yet hit the ground.

Very simply: Every Westerner in Thailand is adding something, even if it is just propping up his local shops, restaurants, and bars. The Thai economy has grown dependent on the money flowing in from mass tourism over the past half century. That has disappeared and the waves from that are going to crash through the entire economy. So, right now, even the despised "kee nok farang" is providing income that the businesses of Thailand desperately need.

An agile and smart response to the unfolding economic crisis would be to immediately grant all foreigners currently in Thailand and, presumably, Covid-free, permission to remain for as long as they want to keep spending money here and normal tourism remains below the level the economy actually requires. As far as I can figure out, we're not going to see anything approaching even vaguely normal tourism until 2024 and we certainly won't see 2019 level at any point during this decade.

 

well said, however as per some economist Thailand should reach 546 billions in 2021 and 549 billions in 2022, means a very low growth GDP. What could be the reasons for the Thai government to avoid keeping the long stay foreigners?

[Wongkitlo]

5 minutes ago, Poet said:

The Thai economy has already been thrown from a balcony but the elites think everything is fine because they have not yet hit the ground.

Very simply: Every Westerner in Thailand is adding something, even if it is just propping up his local shops, restaurants, and bars. The Thai economy has grown dependent on the money flowing in from mass tourism over the past half century. That has collapsed and the resulting tsunami is going to crash through the entire economy. So, right now, even the despised "kee nok farang" is providing income that the businesses of Thailand and workers desperately need.

An agile and smart response to the unfolding economic crisis would be to immediately grant all foreigners currently in Thailand and, presumably, Covid-free, permission to remain for as long as they want to keep spending money here and normal tourism remains below the level the economy actually requires. As far as I can figure out, we're not going to see anything approaching even vaguely normal tourism until 2024 and we certainly won't see 2019 level at any point during this decade.

 

I actually believe that they want people to stay but just want them to pay 1900 per month. The problem is the embassies are playing hard with letters and people are leaving because they can't get an Embassy letter. USA is giving them freely but Australia and other countries are telling people to leave before the amnesty ends. If they just said everyone can get as many 30 day visas as needed, pay 1900b for each of them everyone would be happy. People could steadily, Thailand would make money and the long term visa holders would be happy that people are paying per month what long termers pay per year.

[Lolothai]

5 minutes ago, Poet said:

My partner spent years searching the world for the most perfect specimen of caucasian before hearing about Ireland.

 

I told my wife that is ever she wanted to leave me or if I was passing away prematurely, she should find a Swedish man, not only they are well-off but they seems very nice but maybe you are right and the Irish men are the best.

[Poet]

22 minutes ago, Lolothai said:

I told my wife that is ever she wanted to leave me or if I was passing away prematurely, she should find a Swedish man,

Even we Irish cannot compete with those damnably handsome Swedes.

They cheat by having a higher percentage of Viking blood than us.


 

Edited September 17, 2020 by Poet