Confidence index in August hits highest level in a year, as mood on economy improves

[webfact]

Confidence index in August hits highest level in a year, as mood on economy improves

By THE NATION

 

Thanawat Polvichai

 

The Thai Chamber of Commerce Confidence Index for August saw its first rise in 12 month, moving up to 32.6, from 31.8 in July, said Thanawat Polvichai, the director of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting.

 

“The centre surveyed 364 presidents and vice presidents of chambers of commerce nationwide,” he said. “The positive factor contributing to increasing confidence index is the rising prices of agricultural produce such as oil palm, rubber, rice and corn, which have resulted in increasing investment in agricultural tools by farmers, such as pickup trucks and electrical appliances.”

 

“The majority of the respondents believed that the Thai economy had already passed its lowest point -- in the second quarter of 2020 -- and will start to slowly recover, thanks to the government’s easing of lockdown measures during the Covid-19 situation,” he added.

 

Thanawat added that the negative factors that affected the chambers of commerce’s confidence are the National Economic and Social Development Council’s forecast of a 12.2 per cent contraction in GDP in second quarter, as well as the worry about the second wave of Covid-19, and the political protests by the young generation.

 

“However, the private sector is still hopeful that the government’s stimulus package would help improve several industries, especially tourism. That’s why some have agreed to hold off on laying off employees until the first quarter of 2021, as they believe the economic situation would be better by then.”

 

Thanawat said the survey respondents wanted the government to focus on promoting cross-border trading, especially with Cambodia and Laos, that have been hit by the outbreak and affected other related industries such as agriculture and tourism.

 

The chambers of commerce also expect that the government’s “Let’s Go Halves” campaign, which aims to promote the purchase of consumer products by subsidising 50 per cent of product prices, with a budget of Bt30 billion, and the handing out of an additional Bt1,500 to holders of state welfare cards, with a budget of Bt21 billion, would help inject up to Bt150-Bt200 billion into the economy in the next three months.

 

“These two measures should help lessen the contraction of fourth quarter GDP by 2-3 per cent,” he said. “We estimate that 2020 GDP should be at minus 7.5 to minus 8.5 per cent and will improve by 0-2 per cent by the end of the first quarter of 2021.”

 

“As for the protest scheduled for September 19, it should pose no serious impact to the economy if the protest does not drag on for more than one day,” he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30394752

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-09-18

 

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[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

“The majority of the respondents believed that the Thai economy had already passed its lowest point -- in the second quarter of 2020 -- and will start to slowly recover, thanks to the government’s easing of lockdown measures during the Covid-19 situation,”

Really, and the final shoe has not even been dropped yet.  These people amaze me.  Check back in April of next year Commerce Secretary when the totality of the hits are really known.  How do the: 

 

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

surveyed 364 presidents and vice presidents of chambers of commerce nationwide

know how the businesses in there districts are really doing, unless they are holding weekly and monthly Rotary meetings.  They have no clue in reality as to how the low end wage earners really feel Good Grief Charlie Brown, looks like the Great Pumpkin is arriving soon.....

Edited September 18, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[BigStar]

42 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

know how the businesses in there districts are really doing, unless they are holding weekly and monthly Rotary meetings.  They have no clue in reality as to how the low end wage earners really feel

But you do? Let's see your survey.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, BigStar said:

But you do? Let's see your survey.

Just had three friends in Phuket close up there businesses that were not directly tourism based but did rely on some sort of money filtering back through the economy to them.  One ran a Muay Thai camp, been in business for over 10 years.  Another ran a Fitness Gym, and sold supplements, and the third one had a restaurant of over 15 years.  All catered to mostly locals, who now have fewer dollars to spend and as such have cut back in order to live daily life without extra spending.  These were also Thai nationals, and not foreigners.  Sad to see this occurring.  I tried my best to help them stay afloat, but in the end not much I could do for them, as I was not willing to become a partner in a business I could see was done and over becuase of the economy.  No survey needed when it hits close to home.  Also most of the Hotels in my Area here in Sathon, Bangkok that shut down and laid off folks, but were set to try and re-open in September have now decide to be shut indefinitely and those folks that worked for them no longer have jobs and must try and find them elsewhere.  Also noticed that the homeless population is starting to increase as well.  However, you seem to be a bright person, tell me your view.

[BigStar]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Just had three friends in Phuket close up there businesses

Only three? ???? Plus, Eyeballs of course.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, BigStar said:

Only three? ???? Plus, Eyeballs of course.

Of course, buildings are now empty and the contents being sold as they can be to pay off debts.

[JusticeGB]

So increased from an incredibly low to a slightly less incredibly low is called an increase in confidence!

[BigStar]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Of course, buildings are now empty and the contents being sold as they can be to pay off debts.

Though the buildings you Eyeballed did seem to "speak" to you, the survey is of 364 owners of such buildings and businesses who feel some optimism that the worst is over and they may begin rehiring. Maybe your 3 friends should join the Chamber of Commerce and get some info. Hot air here won't help.

[Poet]

I can say, from looking at my lady's businesses, that consumers are still spending and borrowing.

Those are online businesses and everyone else I know with online businesses reports the same, boom year so far.

We do think Thailand is heading for an almighty crash, and she is socking away as much money as possible into Bitcoin, but the engine seems to be pumping away just fine for now.

 

[Cake Monster]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

“The centre surveyed 364 presidents and vice presidents of chambers of commerce nationwide,” he said. “The positive factor contributing to increasing confidence index is the rising prices of agricultural produce such as oil palm, rubber, rice and corn, which have resulted in increasing investment in agricultural tools by farmers, such as pickup trucks and electrical appliances.”

Increased Investment in Agricultural Tools such as Pickup Trucks and Electrical Appliances.

What a load of Tosh

[DrTuner]

I know some people who were in Chambers of Commerce back in homeland. All failed entrepeneurs. It's like with teachers: "Those that can, do. Those that can't, teach".

 

I suppose none of the participants were in tourism.

[Flying Saucage]

39 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I know some people who were in Chambers of Commerce back in homeland. All failed entrepeneurs. It's like with teachers: "Those that can, do. Those that can't, teach".

 

I suppose none of the participants were in tourism.

Also Chambers of Commerce always promote optimism rather than realism. That's their purpose.

[BigStar]

1 hour ago, Flying Saucage said:

Also Chambers of Commerce always promote optimism rather than realism. That's their purpose.

Not really. Sometimes they promote pessimism to extract concessions from the gov't. Now's a good time for that, so it's surprising they see a bottoming out.

[BigStar]

2 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

Increased Investment in Agricultural Tools such as Pickup Trucks and Electrical Appliances.

What a load of Tosh

Link to your stats?

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, BigStar said:

Link to your stats?

“The positive factor contributing to increasing confidence index is the rising prices of agricultural produce such as oil palm, rubber, rice and corn, which have resulted in increasing investment in agricultural tools by farmers, such as pickup trucks and electrical appliances.

 

Dude read the flipping article before you start spouting off again.

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30394752?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=internal_referral

Edited September 18, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[BigStar]

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

“The positive factor contributing to increasing confidence index is the rising prices of agricultural produce such as oil palm, rubber, rice and corn, which have resulted in increasing investment in agricultural tools by farmers, such as pickup trucks and electrical appliances.

 

Dude read the flipping article before you start spouting off again.

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30394752?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=internal_referral

I did. You ready to spout off some more? Bring it on, dude. So far we've got a survey of 364 COC members vs your 3 business owners and your Eyeballs. ????

Edited September 18, 2020 by BigStar

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, BigStar said:

I did. You ready to spout off some more? Bring it on, dude.

You asked where his Stats were for the post that I just responded to and added again. No stats needed as he reiterated what the good man said from the Chamber of commerce.  Your flying really close to the sun and ready to be burnt by your own words.  Just food for thought, live life to its fullest, and try not to be like Icarus.  I could care less about a survey as I see the real daily toll on folks.

Edited September 18, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[BigStar]

13 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

You asked where his Stats were for the post that I just responded to and added again. No stats needed as he reiterated what the good man said from the Chamber of commerce.  Your flying really close to the sun and ready to be burnt by your own words.  TTFN

Thank you!???? Not surprisingly, you entirely misunderstood what stats were needed to support the poster's contradiction of what the good man from the Chamber of Commerce said. Those would be his own stats, an area in which you're particularly lacking. Perhaps, though, you simply need a definition of "tosh;" lots of vile Briticisms on forum. Here ya go, dude: https://www.dictionary.com/browse/tosh

Edited September 18, 2020 by BigStar

[Flying Saucage]

31 minutes ago, BigStar said:

Not really. Sometimes they promote pessimism to extract concessions from the gov't. Now's a good time for that, so it's surprising they see a bottoming out.

You are right, yes. They are not always optimistic, and it's indeed surprising to observe their reaction. I stand corrected.

 

But I don't see a bottoming out at all yet. Nobody with a brain sees this. They must have other reasons to promote optimism. I think they simply side with the government for some reason.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, BigStar said:

Thank you!???? Not surprisingly, you entirely misunderstood what stats were needed to support the poster's contradiction of what the good man from the Chamber of Commerce said. Those would be his own stats, an area in which you're particularly lacking. Perhaps, though, you simply need a definition of "tosh;" lots of vile Briticisms on forum. Here ya go, dude: https://www.dictionary.com/browse/tosh

Sounds to me, you believe what you want to believe, and that your alternate reality is not based on the reality of what's truly happening, but instead is based upon the reality of a survey of what one, that is you, believes to be true.  Sorry to tell you this, but you better check the tips of your wings, as they are now are scorched.  Enjoy your evening.  You can put out your own fire, no help needed from me.

[BigStar]

48 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Sounds to me, you believe what you want to believe, and that your alternate reality is not based on the reality of what's truly happening, but instead is based upon the reality of a survey of what one, that is you, believes to be true.  Sorry to tell you this, but you better check the tips of your wings, as they are now are scorched.  Enjoy your evening.  You can put out your own fire, no help needed from me.

You've merely set up a straw man for a fallacious argument. The members of the COC in no way contradicted anything that's (cough) truly happening but did point to some other events you didn't know that are also truly happening--unless you've got the numbers to show differently, which clearly you don't.

 

Yep, if the 364 see some hope, based on the numbers they implied, that the bottom's been reached, I'll give greater credence to them rather than your mere 3 + Eyeballs. They may well be wrong (I wouldn't know), but the usual forum know-it-all hot air with little anecdotes doesn't prove them so. Blowing smoke against a poster doesn't help make your case either, BTW.

Edited September 18, 2020 by BigStar

[ramr]

When BigStar and ThailandRyan finally get tired and put their d*cks away, one thing remains clear: most of what comes out of this government and their cheerleading press sound like they've been smoking crack.

I just wish this govt. would give it a rest and stop pretending to know anything with any level of certainty, especially in this of all years, and especially given their severe deficits in cognition, imagination, and empathy.

Edited September 18, 2020 by ramr

[Grumpy John]

Saw the headline and clicked in to see what country they are referring to...on what planet! 

[hotchilli]

19 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Of course, buildings are now empty and the contents being sold as they can be to pay off debts.

Nieghbours of mine have had a restaurant in town for a number of years, their daughter finished Uni and started to work for them full time last year increasing the business with new ideas... they had to close end of August as customers dropped right off and locals were not enough to keep it going.

They sold all the equipment to pay off existing rent & debts.

Now out of work they say they have no money to pay their home rent or payments on two cars and 3 motorcycles.

 

[BigStar]

15 hours ago, ramr said:

one thing remains clear: most of what comes out of this government and their cheerleading press sound like they've been smoking crack.

In this case, you've projected your crack experience too far. The info in the OP didn't come out of the government but from a private source. And The Nation, owner of our beloved forum packed with authoritative Cassandras ever sounding the alarm, is in fact the gov't's cheerleading press? Wot?

 

15 hours ago, ramr said:

I just wish this govt. would give it a rest and stop pretending to know anything with any level of certainty, especially in this of all years, and especially given their severe deficits in cognition, imagination, and empathy.

You might share your valuable wishes and assertion of superior cognition, imagination, and empathy in a topic about some government pronouncement. It's not like there's any shortage, eh.????

 

As for the Thai Chambers Of Commerce, they were in fact quite modest in their hopes for some improvement, and, lacking your precognition, they gave their reasons backed up with some numbers. Besides that, they listed three negative factors and offered recommendations for further measures they thought might be helpful.

 

The TCOC does refer to some gov't measures that TVF Economists and Virologists have recommended from the beginning, except for the free beer and clothing-optional policies. Hence, our ace Economists should also feel some optimism. But now they can’t because the members of the Thai Chamber of Commerce have done so without authorization.

That is, critically, TVF Economists have NOT yet specified or approved any possible easing or end to the pain. Maybe never. We all know what’s needed first. 

 

Thailand needs to end the lockdown, quarantines, and social distancing immediately, stop the idiotic mask wearing (egregious violation of farang Sovereignty), fix the exchange rate at 100 baht/GBPeso, and offer free perpetual tourist visas and beer.

 

And it ain't happenin'.

 

Until the farangs are all happy as pigs in sh.i.t, it’s just going to be Thailand Death Spiral all the way, with worm’s-eye whataboutism insisting that as long as any shopfront is closed anywhere in Thailand then Doom is assured. No optimism permitted.