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Retirement too early ?


superal

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18 hours ago, kenk24 said:

using 1% of your funds is barely investing and BTC has not been around long enough to have any valid results... 

and since 99% of your results are the equivalent of cash, the differential between 100% cash is miniscule... 

 

Bitcoin has been around for over a decade. That has been long enough for us to learn that, despite being a highly volatile asset, it is good performer if you play the long game.

Putting 1% of your funds into Bitcoin each month is a smart way to approach it. The majority of your funds should be in lower-yield but lower-risk assets, but I honestly think people are crazy not to have at least some crypto as part of their portfolio.

My observation is that, the longer Bitcoin is around, the more accepted it becomes despite the volatility. People are no longer as spooked by that.

As the price swings wildly up and down, what I pay attention to are the new floors below which the price will not fall. The spectacular highs are an illusion, but the steady rise, year-by-year, of the levels it falls back to after the highs is encouraging. Never take it too seriously the first time it breaks a certain price.

For example, it broke both $100 and $200 in April 2013 but did not permanently clear $100 until October, and did not permanently clear $200 until November.

It broke both $500 and $1,000 in November 2013 but did not permanently clear $500 until May 2016, and did not permantently clear $1K until March 2017.

It broke $3K in June 2017 but did not permanently clear it until August 2017.

It broke $4K in August 2017 but did not permanently clear it until March 2019.

The Covid crash in March this year saw it plummet down from around $10K to $5K, so, I now consider $5K to be a fairly solid floor. It took six weeks for it to get back up to $10K and my guess is that it will pretty much stay above that now unless there is another severe crash this year, at which point I would expect to again stay above $5K and to rebound quickly. I do not expect another crash this year. Current price is $11K.

Over the years, it has gone as high as $19,665 but, again, those highs are an illusion. Sure, you might get lucky and sell on a high, but at that point you might as well just be a day-trader.

I prefer to treat all my cryptos as long-term assets. I honestly don't care when the price plummets because it always shoots back up. I know that, fairly soon, it will permanently clear $20K but I will not sell any at that point. I am happy to just leave my coins in there and keep adding a small additional amount every month.

My working thesis is that, in 2021 and 2022 the ripple effects of Covid are going to cause havoc in the economies of many countries. Taxes and controls will increase. Historically, the need of families to get money out of, for instance, Venezuela and China, has put a rocket under the price of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the continued printing of the major currencies ("Quantative Easing") will further devalue their credibility, again driving interest in and demand for Bitcoin. I am confident that it will hit $100K by roughly the midpoint of this decade.



 

Edited by Poet
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On 9/18/2020 at 6:48 PM, PFMills said:

No regrets...took VSS in 1993 aged 48. A few months later did contract work full time for GEC Alston.

 

Received index linked pension when age 50.

 

Continued with Alston and later with their client and later still reduced my hours. Finished in 2005 completely

 

Got married in 2002 and she came straightaway to live in UK.

 

Spent time golf..gym..travel etc

 

2007 came to live full time in Thailand and doing the same things.

 

I enjoyed working in the Electrical Supply Industry but don’t miss it at all. The biggest thing that I miss about the UK is sitting in the garden of a pub having lunch.

Why??? Aren't there any gardens and pubs in Th?? Some even called Beergarden..... 

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2 hours ago, Poet said:

Bitcoin has been around for over a decade.

So, that's nothing... I have shirts that have been around longer... 

 

if it disappeared tomorrow, only the few people who own it will care... it only has value to you and other investors... sure, you could say that about cash too - just paper, but the entire population of the world understands and uses it... especially the lady at the corner store... 

 

Feel free to correct the above if wrong... 

 

Is there any place where a normal person spends money that accepts bitcoin? what % of the population owns BTC? 

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2 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

 

Is there any place where a normal person spends money that accepts bitcoin?


Is there any place where a normal person spends money that accepts gold, share certificates, or government bonds?

As described in my post, I am using it as a store of value.
 

 

4 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

what % of the population owns BTC?


Not a valid metric for this. The number of coins being bought and sold create the market price. Unlike the number of people using, say, Android or iPhone, the precise number of people behind those crypto trades is irrelevant.
 

 

13 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

if it disappeared tomorrow, only the few people who own it will care


If people stop accepted dollars tomorrow, only the people holding dollars would care.

Demand may rise or fall tomorrow, but it is not going to disappear. There is a very common misconception about what Bitcoin is. It is one of the only assets that cannot be forged, that we know exactly how many of them exist or will ever exist, that cannot be inflated by some central authority, that can be sent instantly to anyone on the planet, that cannot be revoked, and that can be carried invisibly through any border.

For the things it is used for, those unique qualities are extremely useful. In fact, it is the only way to conduct certain large transactions. As I explained in my post, demand massively increases when governments become more authoritarian and place more controls on money. It is a fair guess that the economic impact of Covid will affect many countries over the next few years.

 

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3 hours ago, Poet said:

Putting 1% of your funds into Bitcoin each month is a smart way to approach it. The majority of your funds should be in lower-yield but lower-risk assets, but I honestly think people are crazy not to have at least some crypto as part of their portfolio.

Buying lottery tickets would be just as smart.

A few nutters get rich from 'investing' in scams, more get rich from pushing the scam.

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19 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Buying lottery tickets would be just as smart.


We pretty much know the exact return on lottery tickets in general, and its terrible. There is also no way to sell them after the draw. Not a great long-term investment or store of value.
 

 

19 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

A few nutters get rich from 'investing' in scams, more get rich from pushing the scam.


The guy who invented and generated the first few bitcoin certainly made some nice money, as did the first few thousand people to understand it. They kickstarted the market and deserve their millions just as much as the first few investors to understand the importance of Google.

Unlike government currencies or most other stores of value, neither the inventor nor the early enthusiasts have any way to reach into the mathematics and grab more for themselves. The market is about as pure and frictionless as you can get. As a decentralised market, there is no middle man shaving off fees or manipulating the buyer and seller.

Consider, by contrast, the diamond market. It is a pretty much open secret that the de Beers monopoly are sitting on massive stores of diamonds already mined but carefully released only in amounts that will not crater the market and the public perception that diamonds are rare. If you want to sell or buy, you must either buy through authorized dealers or worry about forgeries. If you try to sell a ring back to the jeweller you bought it from, he will almost certainly screw you on the price.

 

Edited by Poet
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4 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I know there are lots of people out there who don't like their job. And I guess in many cases that's the problem. They retire from a job which they don't like and then they will do something that they like. And if they do it right they can do what they like and get paid. Maybe it's time to think about a change of job then retirement is not important anymore. 

You are correct, that is the problem, most people don't like their jobs, add to that when they reach a certain age, they don't have a choice in changing jobs, e.g. my career started in 1988 and ended in 2015 in the same industry, I finished two degrees and was at the top of my field, now to leave that industry and change careers would be too late, not to mention the major drop in $'s to start, and let's not forget the younger ones coming up the food chain in managerial positions who think they know better when they don't, you see for me, I learned at the coalface, not from reading some books, although that was part of getting your degree/s.

 

Retiring early is only for those who are in a position to do so, i.e. have enough money to back them comfortably till they reach 100, if not, then they should keep on working, albeit unhappy as they will be, because if they retire without any money, then that would be more miserable that working in a job that they don't like, but at least they can still survive.

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1 hour ago, Poet said:

As described in my post, I am using it as a store of value.

Has even one person thought your posts were a good idea?

Please give it a rest, we really have no interest in your obsession.

Anyway, no need to reply as I can no longer see your posts.

Edited by BritManToo
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2 hours ago, Poet said:


Is there any place where a normal person spends money that accepts gold, share certificates, or government bonds?

As described in my post, I am using it as a store of value.
 

 


Not a valid metric for this. The number of coins being bought and sold create the market price. Unlike the number of people using, say, Android or iPhone, the precise number of people behind those crypto trades is irrelevant.
 

 


If people stop accepted dollars tomorrow, only the people holding dollars would care.

Demand may rise or fall tomorrow, but it is not going to disappear. There is a very common misconception about what Bitcoin is. It is one of the only assets that cannot be forged, that we know exactly how many of them exist or will ever exist, that cannot be inflated by some central authority, that can be sent instantly to anyone on the planet, that cannot be revoked, and that can be carried invisibly through any border.

For the things it is used for, those unique qualities are extremely useful. In fact, it is the only way to conduct certain large transactions. As I explained in my post, demand massively increases when governments become more authoritarian and place more controls on money. It is a fair guess that the economic impact of Covid will affect many countries over the next few years.

 

Thanks. Some interesting info there, other than unlike gold or dollars, I don't hold your confidence that it won't disappear... 

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45 minutes ago, superal said:

Especially if you live in the UK where the government do not care too much about poverty stricken state pensioners but adore illegal immigrants and shower them with goodies as opposed to pensioners who have to filter through the benefits system . ( sorry to go off post a little ) 

Not going off the post at all, it's reality, pretty much the same as the corporate world, promises made, never kept, same with pensioners, the illusion of work all your life and get the pension, no one mentioned that they would raise the OAP age, don't know about the UK, but they did that in Oz.

 

As for the corporates, well all it takes is once to bend me over, left one of my employers when they failed to deliver a pay increase which was due, they even decided to come up with a weak reason. Bet they didn't expect me to take some of their clients which was part of the negotiations with my next employer, that provided me with a 20% immediate lift in my wages, but not before negotiating a further 10% annual increases for the next 3 years, which doubled my wages in 3 years, now I am going off the post, but from what I learned early was not to believe anyone, employers, governments and to always try to have the upper hand when they try and stick it to you, so retirement at 55 was on me, and when I reach the OPA, I will assess whether it's worth me returning for the small handout, but that would mean relocating back the place to I left for a better life here and that is exactly how it's turned out. 

Edited by 4MyEgo
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9 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Has even one person thought your posts were a good idea?

Please give it a rest, we really have no interest in your obsession.

Anyway, no need to reply as I can no longer see your posts.


Wow. Blocking me seems an extreme reaction when all I did was politely disagree with @BritManToo and take the time to explain why. It's a pity, because he has liked and interacted with a lot of my posts on other subjects, and I with his.

I guess there is something about Bitcoin that just annoys the heck out of some people.
I suspect they heard about it early on, back when it was a few cents, but decided not to take punt. Now, after watching it gain in value, they feel a bit raw.

Again, my own approach is that I don't care how much it cost in the past. I base my judgement on whether I think it will gain value over what it costs today. I took the time to explain my thinking because crypto is part, but not all, of my own retirement plan.

 

Edited by Poet
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Interesting thread, when I was in my teens my evaluation of my future based on lifestyle was I'd be lucky if I made it past 40!!!

So I lived life my way enjoyed my work or changed it, self employed on one occasion, what a party that was, in charge of my own hours, work hard and party hard ????

To plot my life is easy where the woman I was enjoying life with was, or wanted to be, there I ended up until the relationship had run it's course, which it was guaranteed to do as I simply was not marriage material!!

To my amazement while being disconcerted by my 'attitude' my employers appeared to in most cases appreciated my straight forward to the point comments and analysis, they just had to work a little harder to keep their boss from hearing them ???? Never had difficulty finding something I enjoyed doing. Finding managers I enjoyed working for, quite another story, but I worked out my niche was to control my work from start to finish, and manage change all, without supervision, build confidence from customers, and certainly not rely on any backup to have the ability to complete my tasks to reasonable standard!! team player I am not!! Always willing to help others but please do not come into my arena unless specifically invited.

So now having amazed myself with three or four differing careers, I ease towards my final chapter, and yes once again I shall move to be with the woman I love, this time I am settled and married and of course she lives in our home in Thailand.

I am happy to close my 'working for others' life because now I will fill my time doing the farming I enjoy, with somebody who I enjoy being with, no expectation other than we will make the best of what we have.

Setting this up has been a great experience and hobby over recent years, again something that has been fun, not long to go now....who knows covid might just inch my departure forward a little....could I be that lucky....well don't see why not....but seeing out my time to retirement with so much to look forward to is no hardship ????

So pleased to have enjoyed a great entertaining working life, happy to depart to open another chapter with a little more self interest and enjoyment - no plan could have worked so well ????

Just lucky I guess ????

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When to retire is really dependent on the individual financial position, and a lot on personality.

 

I did a wind down in my mid 50's.

 

Financially we are fine, I saved a lot when I was working and my wife still works and has a good job.

 

For me it was boredom that soured the early retirement dream, something my wife to this day likes to remind me that she 'told me so'

 

When I did retire we moved to Thailand full time, and everything was great for the first few years of doing practically nothing.

 

But as the years went by, abject boredom set in. As a fluent Thai speaker, I offered to volunteer at the local schools to coach English, but that went nowhere.

 

I'm not a golfer, I'd seen almost all there was to see in Thailand and SE Asia that interested me, and there is only so much TV you can watch and books to read.

 

Eventually it came to a head and for a myriad of reasons, our son in the US, my wife's career and my abject boredom we moved back to the US.

 

I took a mindless little job with an airline, which I do for the free flight benefits, but mainly because it gives me something to get out of bed for in the morning.

 

So I think what I'm trying to say is that there is no 'one size fits all' retirement, we all fumble our way though it to something which makes us happy

Edited by GinBoy2
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