Medical expert warns of disaster if govt eases quarantine restrictions for tourists

[VBF]

4 minutes ago, simtemple said:

You think? This guy thought like you, until he nearly died of Covid-19 

https://youtu.be/vpJtVzGdE1g

Much sympathy to him of course, BUT the fact remains that young and otherwise healthy people are not high on the risk scale with CV.

 

With any virus / disease / malady there will always be exceptions - some otherwise healthy people get flu, followed by complications; some people get cuts and bruises which despite treatment go septic.  These are usually explainable but, sadly often not until it's too late.

 

My point is that we shouldn't let isolated incidents influence the trend...and I repeat, I do have sympathy for the man.

[Sheryl]

19 minutes ago, VBF said:

 

So as I've said on other forums, surely there's justification in letting this thing loose, but warning those who are vulnerable and giving them a choice to isolate if they so wish?

Would that count as a sort of "herd immunity"?  What do you think @Sheryl  ?

 

Absolutely not. I suggest you review what happened in Northern Italy and New York City when it was "loose".

 

No one has found a way to protect the vulnerable, even with mandatory means. Society is too inter-dependent.

 

And note that there are deaths in people with no known risk factors, including young people.  Not to mention the many deaths that result from collapse of the health system, which happens when the virus is simply "let loose"

 

What I think could be looked at, in locations where things are not out of control and the health system strong with plenty of capacity, is restricting  only those types of events that are known to be at risk for super spreading. Rather than more sweeping restrictions. In  other words, aim to  to prevent massive surges rather than all cases.

[VBF]

3 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Absolutely not. I suggest you review what happened in Northern Italy and New York City when it was "loose".

 

No one has found a way to protect the vulnerable, even with mandatory means. Society is too inter-dependent.

 

And note that there are deaths in people with no known risk factors, including young people.  Not to mention the many deaths that result from collapse of the health system, which happens when the virus is simply "let loose"

 

What I think could be looked at, in locations where things are not out of control and the health system strong with plenty of capacity, is restricting  only those types of events that are known to be at risk for super spreading. Rather than more sweeping restrictions. In  other words, aim to  to prevent massive surges rather than all cases.

Points well taken - especially your final paragraph - thank you.

 

The one thing I might disagree with is the "deaths in people with no known risk factors, including young people" Yes, obviously there are, but are there enough to justify all the lockdowns and isolations around the world?  I know it's unfortunate, but people do die when they shouldn't after all.

[ourmanflint]

8 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Absolutely not. I suggest you review what happened in Northern Italy and New York City when it was "loose".

 

No one has found a way to protect the vulnerable, even with mandatory means. Society is too inter-dependent.

 

And note that there are deaths in people with no known risk factors, including young people.  Not to mention the many deaths that result from collapse of the health system, which happens when the virus is simply "let loose"

 

What I think could be looked at, in locations where things are not out of control and the health system strong with plenty of capacity, is restricting  only those types of events that are known to be at risk for super spreading. Rather than more sweeping restrictions. In  other words, aim to  to prevent massive surges rather than all cases.

6 months on for the initial phase of the covid crisis, scientists have learned a lot, but politicians are very slow to implement the necessary policies to fix things. It is now known that aerosols are the main vector for transmission not surface contact as has been the claim for a long while. Super spreader events confirm this. To put it simply, the virus is airborne, and that is why masks for everyone are of prime importance. 

Vitamin D levels have also been shown to be a major factor in mollifying the severity of the virus's impact. Low Vitamin D levels have been found in up to 90% of severe cases especially those being hospitalized. 

Taking vitamin D or making sure you get enough naturally from sunlight and wearing a mask at all times when in the community can only help. 

 

[Bkktodd]

11 hours ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

By keeping the borders closed, and insisting a 14 day quarantine on the forthcoming tourists (if any) will be disaster for the economy which is sinking fast at the moment.. 

 

Its ok. Government aid is on the way ????

[Bkktodd]

11 hours ago, farang51 said:

Thailand did not have any excess deaths this year; thus, your theory is wrong.

 

Article in New York Times that says the number of deaths was normal from January to April:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

Another media (I cannot link to that one) said in June that the number of deaths fell 8 percent in the period from October to June compared to the year before.

Ok so how many died in motor/motorcycle accidents?  Worry about covid not about loa cow  induced deaths

[Flying Saucage]

29 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

What I think could be looked at, in locations where things are not out of control and the health system strong with plenty of capacity, is restricting  only those types of events that are known to be at risk for super spreading. Rather than more sweeping restrictions. In  other words, aim to  to prevent massive surges rather than all cases.

...which is what most European countries are doing right now.

 

Plus, also important, it is necessary and useful to reduce the inhaled virus load. This is something which happens in Thailand somehow naturally due to the hot climate: Open windows or air-drying AC reduce the virus load. But this is also why social distancing and wearing masks in critical environments make sense. By doing so, the situation in Europe will not go back to what it was in April.

 

This article refers to another interesting study about masks. It refers to a recent study of Monica Ghandi et al, of University of California San Francisco and recently published in New England Journal of Medicine :

 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-masks-boost-covid-immunity.html

 

The theory is still unproven, as mentioned in the article, but in my opinion absolutely logical. And, this study also suggests that a Covid infection is not necessarily something bad, as - as long it is not severe - it makes one at least for a short time immune and increases the herd immunity.

 

This is something positive about the so called second wave in Europe, and was described in a similar way also by Prof. Hendrik Streeck who is a leading German specialist on Covid, and governmental advisor.

 

Thai politics should take into account such studies as well, instead of enhancing the populaces hysteria about the virus permanently.

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[Kaopad999]

I don't understand why people don't believe Thailand's medical experts

Edited September 28, 2020 by Kaopad999

[Bkktodd]

10 hours ago, uncle_tom said:

A couple of hours ago, I received a text message from a low born, but very intelligent and successful lady I've known for nearly twenty years now from Issan.

 

Her message was simple: The people are getting desperate now - do the farangs want to come back?

 

I replied yes - 100%..

Sad state....but HISO  bkk Military and BMW drivers  care little about esaan.

[Taxi]

According to the CDC,

 

The CDC’s new estimate, for the first time, is broken down by age groups. Here is what the CDC calls its “current best estimate” of chances of dying from the virus if you get infected:

1 out of 34,000 for ages 0 to 19;

 

1 out of 5,000 for ages 20 to 49;

1 out of 200 for ages 50 to 69; and

1 out of 20 for ages 70 and up.

 

Here’s another way to look at the same numbers. If you get infected, your chances of surviving are as follows:

 

Age Group                                           Probability of Survival

0-19:                                                    99.997%
20-49:                                                  99.98%
50-69:                                                  99.5%
70+:                                                     94.6%

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-cdc-estimates-fatality-rate-covid-19-drops-again-and-may-surprise-you

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

 

[Captor]

1 hour ago, Kaopad999 said:

That's a separate issue entirely, has nothing to do with Thailand's medicals experts. 

Of course it has. AND the polititians.

[Scot123]

12 hours ago, genericptr said:

I assume they at least test hospitalizations with COVID like symptoms but I don't know how you would confirm that. My girlfriends place of work (government sector) tested all their employees and found zero positives.

 

I think the false positive rates for the test are 1%. That means if you tested the entire population of 68 million you would AT LEAST get back 680,000 positive tests.

 

It's my current theory is that COVID already blew threw Thailand early on when they were accepting tourists from China still. Many older people died but the Thai medical system didn't have the means/ability to analyze the deaths and they simply went uncounted.  We could confirm my theory if the government has excess death statistics but I don't know how to find those.

I dont know where you get the 1% false positive rate from, maybe Thailands tests are just so special. False positive rates of 50% and above are being quoted here in the UK. Where my wife works they are tested every week, 2 weeks ago the whole care home results came back "Inconclusive". The staff have been told by the testers not to worry if it comes back positive as you most likely "Don't have Covid" draw your own conclusions. I personally think that anyone who thinks Thailand is Covid Free is mad!

[Banjo Patto]

7 hours ago, Yinn said:

Big problem. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/25/victoria-stage-4-restrictions-melbourne-lockdown-rules-covid-19-stage-four-metropolitan-metro-explained-what-you-need-to-know

 

 

 

And loons

Victoria had 5 cases today

[diks]

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

Quite right...to hell with the old people....what does it matter if they die?

People die every day. When put into relation to the number of people, who died during that period in Germany, it is about 0.3% of the total who passed away. Also keep in mind that they likely died with and not of Covid.

[runamok27]

12 hours ago, farang51 said:

Thailand did not have any excess deaths this year; thus, your theory is wrong.

 

Article in New York Times that says the number of deaths was normal from January to April:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

Another media (I cannot link to that one) said in June that the number of deaths fell 8 percent in the period from October to June compared to the year before.

That may or may not be true. This is most likely true everywhere so Covid-19 causing people to not seek medical treatment may have been a life saver.

 

• A recent Johns Hopkins study claims more than 250,000 people in the U.S. die every year from medical errors. Other reports claim the numbers to be as high as 440,000.
• Medical errors are the third-leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer.
• Advocates are fighting back, pushing for greater legislation for patient safety.

[kiwikeith]

14 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

This article is nonsense, show me where Australia add hundreds new cases per day.

Only in Victoria the have a few dozens per day in Western Australia we had not a 

local transmission for months Norther Territory had none for months only a few 

in NSW nothing in SA or Tassie who writes this nonsense?

A Gala

[RocketDog]

3 hours ago, CLW said:

What a nonsense. Covid has proved to be less lethal than estimated.

Germany had 12.156 new cases in the last 7 days but only 50 deaths.

And from those deaths the majority is over 80 years old.

So where's the danger for a healthy individual?

Permanent organ damage. 

Web search 'Covid permanent organ damage' . Even for very young. Lots of new info out there. 

This is a game changer. 

[vermin on arrival]

13 hours ago, genericptr said:

Portugal and Belgium seem to having something going on. The US is so large that is spans northern to tropical climates so the peaks are spread out more but still pretty much over. 

 

If our goals are 0 deaths than we're literally going to be in masks for the rest of our lives.

 

Here's my town I'm in now. Absolute state of panic here. They're probably going to shut down the entire university for the year at the current rate.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/18-22-year-olds-banned-gathering-boulder-colorado-after-coronavirus-n1240975

Huge surge in cases but almost no deaths. I see single digits all week, a casedemic panic. Bubble wrap the elderly and try to live your lives with mitigation. Weak infections give immunity. What are the ICU and hospitalization numbers?

[Flying Saucage]

4 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

 Weak infections give immunity. 

see my post #127 regarding this

[vermin on arrival]

8 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

   The reality in Asia is that only the data from Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore is reliable.

I would narrow it down to HK, Singapore, and South Korea.

 

I have been following Taiwan religiously since I need to get back to my home there. The epidemic is currently minuscule there, but IMO the case data there is totally fraudulent (similar to Thailand except that the mortality figures in Taiwan may be pretty accurate). I have written long posts about that elsewhere, based on following Taiwan News newspaper on a daily basis.

 

Japan there is also alot of evidence that there data is off, especially in the early stage when they were trying to cover things up due to their hopes for having the 2020 summer Olympics. Other posters have also commented on the bad data there.

[vermin on arrival]

7 hours ago, Surelynot said:

If the spread of the virus has been contained within Thailand (no one knows for sure).....then there must be almost zero immunity in the population.

 

If the virus is re-introduced, without a vaccine, Thailand could find itself in the same position as the USA and the UK currently find themselves.

It most probably was not. It probably spread pretty well from November through March and there should be a fair amount of immunity here. I would expect there is some reservoir of mild/asymptomatic cases here. However, long term this attempt at 0 case suppression policy will hurt Thailand and expose the population if no vaccine is developed.

[pookondee]

7 hours ago, chilli42 said:

I give up ... why?

Why is there a huge continuous region on the map where hardly any people die from COVID?

 

Quite simply because the media doesn't say so.

So, as far as the sheeple are concerned: it aint happening.

 

Its exactly the same as the suicide issue.

In Australia the media are not allowed to report on suicides.

So therefore, the ignorant will believe  

"there's no suicide in Australia"..

Or at least they will not even consider it as a problem that needs fixing.

 

In Australia right now there are cases of people driving into rivers, driving over cliffs in these "accidents" and its obvious whats going on.

There have been cases of people charging at police in threatening ways,

with (what really looks like) an attempt to get a firing squad style execution.

All not reported or reported as something else.

 

The media is on a precipice, where they are allowed to report "accidents",

yet the telling factor is how there is never ANY details AT ALL, on how these things happen.

Especially in places where it is virtually impossible to speed or have an accident, if not on purpose.

 

 

This virus is dangerous, but IMO its not dangerous enough to shut down the whole world.

And in effect, all these social problems that the media have spun,

have created mass fear and panic in the public..

And then the politicians have been forced to act in way which is like a child kicking down a sand-castle before a wave approaches.

 

 

Nope, we have all been played.

 

 

 

[pookondee]

8 hours ago, RocketDog said:

This is a very important issue that is only slowly being recognized. New studies are showing multiple organ damage in a high percentage of survivors. Dr. Faucci mentioned it a few days ago as well. 

 

So a legitimate question is how often does one actually recover from infection if they have liver, heart, lung, kidney etc damage for the rest of their lives? Is their lifespan impacted? Probably. 

 

Considering this it would be better for some people to just avoid it altogether if possible. Also better to let others exercise the cautions they personally want to take without criticism. 

 

For those that feel others are not taking proper precautions then just suck it up and avoid those situations whenever you can. 

The thing is, the jury is still out on whether other respiratory conditions actually cause long term effects either.

 

Whooping cough did, now it doesnt..they are always changing their tune.

 

So how would he know about Covid long term effects?

There's nowhere near enough cases studied, nor enough data for Faucci to even make these claims.

 

So, he should just shut up on what he doesnt know about, and quit with the doomsday scenarios. 

 

Hes just a media stooge that has to come up with something, and for some reason he always prefers the negative.

 

Actually he reminds me of certain females ive known.

 

Long proven that females have a major need to talk...actually they speak many 1,000's of words per day more than what men do.

 

Trouble is, when they run out of things to say, they usually end up repeating old stories or just basically talking Sหit..

 

The latter is pretty much what Faucci does all the time.

 

[Lacessit]

26 minutes ago, pookondee said:

 

The latter is pretty much what Faucci does all the time.

 

Fauci has been sidelined by Trump, his media appearances are limited.

If you prefer to believe Trump's take on coronavirus, be my guest.

[Marco100]

Still insisting with the bad Wolf ? Careful that if you call for the Bad Wolf it will arrive .... and definitely not from Tourist doing CV test previous boarding , after boarding et et et ...

[pookondee]

18 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Fauci has been sidelined by Trump, his media appearances are limited.

If you prefer to believe Trump's take on coronavirus, be my guest.

Thats the trouble.

They are opposite poles whom id believe neither.

One is a liar and one is a paid shill/jester.

 

These days there never seems to be any middle ground where things can just be remotely sensible.

 

It kind of reminds me of USA election..

 

A clown liar or a sleepy guy who seems to have the signs of early dementia.

 

Such a huge country, full of talent..and these are the two best choices?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DrTuner]

17 hours ago, farang51 said:

Thailand did not have any excess deaths this year; thus, your theory is wrong.

 

Article in New York Times that says the number of deaths was normal from January to April:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

Another media (I cannot link to that one) said in June that the number of deaths fell 8 percent in the period from October to June compared to the year before.

If you take the data and check it out yourself, you'll find anomalies in Nov-Feb. I found it to be somewhere around 6-7k excess. And yes, April saw a reduction from average. Decreased mobility, among others, is the probable cause. The data only covers to April, hasn't been updated.

 

Here you go: https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/excess-deaths/deaths.csv

 

The source is Bureau of Registration Administration Department of Provincial Administration, which is as reliable as it gets around here.

[Lacessit]

16 minutes ago, pookondee said:

Thats the trouble.

They are opposite poles whom id believe neither.

One is a liar and one is a paid shill/jester.

 

These days there never seems to be any middle ground where things can just be remotely sensible.

 

It kind of reminds me of USA election..

 

A clown liar or a sleepy guy who seems to have the signs of early dementia.

 

Such a huge country, full of talent..and these are the two best choices?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Console yourself with the thought Harris appears to be a sharper tool than Pence when it comes to the first wicket down.

[sezze]

2 minutes ago, Marco100 said:

Yeah let's stop the World cauze we did not take enough Vitamine A or C . C'mon pleaze ...what has got Fauci or Thrump got to do with this ? Where was the WHO in October - November - December - January- February - March ???? When this all started ??? When the pandemic could have been stopped ?? 

Now all opens their mouth... thanks !!

To late . No cooments please . Solutions , although to late , are welcome ! Otherwise shut the f.... up .

Im not responding about Fauci and Trump , and about the Vit A / C , since i do not know what you responded about . I am responding about where the WHO was ...

October , November -> the disease prob had started but was unknown .

December 1st cases were really reported and WHO send a warning about a new virus .

The other warnings and dates are all on here ...

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/29-06-2020-covidtimeline

If you didn't follow the news back then , that is not WHO mistake . In January there is already about daily news from WHO about this new virus . This is before many cases were detected outside China . And 11th of March WHO declared it a pandemic . This pandemic could not have been stopped , it took us all by surprise by it's speed .

I remember myself that around Xmas NY , i heard rumours about new disease in China , and later i think in January that China put a big region in lockdown . Everywhere else around the world , people were going along as they always did . I remember the <deleted> was starting to hitting the fan over here around beginning of March ( in talking Europe/ Belgium)  . 

Putting all the blame to China is wrong also , yes probably their response was slow , but this was a new virus . Being sick and going to hospital , by the time they start looking for what is going on , plenty of others are there with same disease also . So many sick people ... let us look at that ... ok research about what is it ... takes some serious time and effort . After they know it is a virus , next step is to detect the virus , since there wasn't any testing at all ... it was/is still a new virus .

 

 

[geriatrickid]

11 hours ago, genericptr said:

COVID does not kill 100% of the time, right? That means there is a numerical ceiling on the number of possible people it COULD kill. If this were not the case the entire global population would be wiped out in an end of times scenario.

 

I'm not trying to downplay this I'm just saying according to the data we reached a peak a few months ago and it's stabilizing since then.

 

 

You are trying to put this in a neat little box and are missing the direct effect of the infection: It sickens and weakens people. This virus causes an exponential growth in the numbers of infected. This means that as the  infection spreads, more and more people will become  ill. Some will have mild symptoms and others will become very ill and require hospital care.

What do you think happens when 5%-10% of a population books off sick? What happens when hospitals and ICUs pass their capacity points? medical personnel were falling ill, dying or burning out in  numbers that hadn't been seen in 80+ years. What do you think will happen when a single parent  falls ill? How about the  wage earner for the family? There is a tremendous social and economic cost to a wide scale illness. These costs are ignored by those who obsess about restrictions. 

 

There is no demonstrable long term immunity from the infection. More importantly, the  current studies show that a relatively small number of the population have the necessary antibodies to protect against the  infection. The corona virus family has  shown an ability to reinfect and to stay in a population. We have seen it in animal populations. If there was "herd" immunity, cattle and swine herds would not have the problems they have. Cats and dogs would not die. Today, we have specific corona virus vaccines to protect swine and cattle from their GI variant virus. Dogs and cats have their own vaccines.   We are doing what we are doing now to give  us time to  obtain a vaccine, and to slow the spread of the virus such that it does not  goes a massive  shut down of social and economic activity as  millions become ill at one time and then  continue getting ill.