Thai Beaches Won’t Reopen Fully Until Vaccines Become Available

[SpanishExpat]

The sad thing is that all those struggling tourism businesses had the hope that they would reopen during the peak season. That was their main motivation to fight. Regardless of this announcement, we all know that they won`t fully reopen in 2020.

 

Sure they may increase the number of people allowed in during November/December, but the natural limit with the quarantine hotels is ridiculously low.

 

After that it`s not really important, if they fully reopen in March, May, July or when there's a vaccine. No reoping during the main season = most privately owned tourism businesses will be out the game. 

[vermin on arrival]

16 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/world/europe/ski-party-pandemic-travel-coronavirus.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20201001&instance_id=22679&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=80027960&segment_id=39505&user_id=1298cdda864738dcf5f5cb52747197da

Yeah, so what? This isn't Feb and March anymore. We know a lot more abut the disease and how to test, track and treat it. In addition, we know we need the immunity that comes from younger people contracting mild cases of the illness. That immunity helps to protect the elderly as well.

 

The first wave hit hard because the disease was unknown and somewhat novel (also lots of dry tinder from the low excess mortality of the prior year amongst the elderly). We are still in it as the disease continues to spread to different areas in countries (south of France, southern and now Midwestern US, and no NE of GB) which were not hit in the beginning. The death and hospitalization rates however are considerably lower now. This coming winter will be milder than what people experienced last year because of the immunity that we have been acquiring.

 

This isn't the black death or even the Spanish flu. If the stats are to be trusted for the Hong Kong and Asian flues, which were estimated between 1 and 4 million global deaths, it will be on a par with them. but maybe worse. We need to get over the societal traumitization that occurred due to media hype and the unknown nature of the illness.and move forward with sensible precautions.

[dinsdale]

11 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

Vaccine won't be widely available in Thailand until 2022 at the earliest. So good luck with that plan

What vaccine? Still not a given.

 

[brewsterbudgen]

I didn't think the beaches were closed?  Aren't they trying to encourage domestic tourism?

[Cake Monster]

10 hours ago, ezzra said:

So as we understand that during the 14 days quarantine there will be guard positioned thought out the hotel and outside the hotel to prevent them " tourists" from wondering off and mingling among themselves? and them tourists actually signed up for that and paid money?...

Of course they have signed up for it.

These first Tourists are Minted, and will not care about spending 14 days in a high end Quarantine Facility.

They will already have teams of " Goffers " in situ catering to their every whim, both inside and outside of the facility. They will have Business Contacts already in Thailand ( whether Thai or Chinese ) running around gathering the information they need to make the big decisions and reporting every 2 Minutes on a Phone while they just relax by a Pool with a G and T , and make the buy/ no buy decisions.

[from the home of CC]

geez foreigners, hard to believe that Thailand is so much more on top of this health crisis than you'll ever be, which will be evidenced by the upcoming overrun of your hospital systems - and here I was, led to believe that western education was so superior lol..  

[Pattaya46]

7 hours ago, PatOngo said:

12 hours ago, webfact said:

Thai Beaches Won’t Reopen Fully Until Vaccines Become Available

In the meantime.....!

 

What relation between this African beach photo and Thailand beaches ??? 

source

[Nout]

12 hours ago, lujanit said:

The big question is are these Chinese going to be made to go into a 14 day quarantine before they are let into the wild.  As well as covid tests, wearing of bracelets etc.  My guess is no and this pseudo government will come up with 'reasons' why the Chinese are exempt.

 

The same goes for the eight Chinese arriving by private charter.

 

One rule for their Chinese overlords another for dirty farangs.

'dirty farangs' is that how you see yourself?

[Nout]

24 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

Of course they have signed up for it.

These first Tourists are Minted, and will not care about spending 14 days in a high end Quarantine Facility.

They will already have teams of " Goffers " in situ catering to their every whim, both inside and outside of the facility. They will have Business Contacts already in Thailand ( whether Thai or Chinese ) running around gathering the information they need to make the big decisions and reporting every 2 Minutes on a Phone while they just relax by a Pool with a G and T , and make the buy/ no buy decisions.

Precisely

[Jeffr2]

58 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Yeah, so what? This isn't Feb and March anymore. We know a lot more abut the disease and how to test, track and treat it. In addition, we know we need the immunity that comes from younger people contracting mild cases of the illness. That immunity helps to protect the elderly as well.

 

The first wave hit hard because the disease was unknown and somewhat novel (also lots of dry tinder from the low excess mortality of the prior year amongst the elderly). We are still in it as the disease continues to spread to different areas in countries (south of France, southern and now Midwestern US, and no NE of GB) which were not hit in the beginning. The death and hospitalization rates however are considerably lower now. This coming winter will be milder than what people experienced last year because of the immunity that we have been acquiring.

 

This isn't the black death or even the Spanish flu. If the stats are to be trusted for the Hong Kong and Asian flues, which were estimated between 1 and 4 million global deaths, it will be on a par with them. but maybe worse. We need to get over the societal traumitization that occurred due to media hype and the unknown nature of the illness.and move forward with sensible precautions.

France is doing almost double now what they were doing back in March.  So yeah, this isn't Feb and March anymore.  At least deaths are way down, due to a better understanding of the disease. 

 

Herd immunity is a myth.  But with the jab, unless a majority of people take it, it won't be that helpful.

 

Just came out that India's death rate may be 10x.  Same has been said of many other countries.  If you don't have a test kit, how do you test. Impossible.

 

That's what I started with.  Sensible precautions.  Things would change dramatically if everybody was onboard with that.

[humbug]

6 hours ago, SupermarineS6B said:

When is everyone going to realize ?  You're not wanted,  Mr CP and his mates in the Gov have already decided that Thailand's for the Chinese and those pesky farangs can just move on........ The only way back is for the rest of the world to kick out all the Thais all over the place back to Lie land and let them vent their anger on the Junta at being kicked back into a third world nightmare governed by a bunch of senile old Mr Woos.........  There will be NO change for the good in Thailand until this lot are made to leave...... Simple as that......

yes and mr CP who is a communist party member of China is flying them in, probably friends of party members and their families all expenses paid holiday, to show china as the new saviours, i am not doubting in any way  buyers from china looking to buy anything they can get cheaply, but this phuket holiday from CP just looks like one big chinese propaganda ride

[vermin on arrival]

13 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

France is doing almost double now what they were doing back in March.  So yeah, this isn't Feb and March anymore.  At least deaths are way down, due to a better understanding of the disease. 

 

Herd immunity is a myth.  But with the jab, unless a majority of people take it, it won't be that helpful.

 

Just came out that India's death rate may be 10x.  Same has been said of many other countries.  If you don't have a test kit, how do you test. Impossible.

 

That's what I started with.  Sensible precautions.  Things would change dramatically if everybody was onboard with that.

Untrue. There is ample evidence that immunity and herd immunity exists with this illness. I have posted many times about this. This is an example of people believing misinformation about this illness that terrifies people. I am lazy to provide the evidence for this now.

 

The wait for the jab may be waiting for Godot, and the safety and efficacy of the jab may not be nearly as effective as people hope for. We must move forward with an alternate possibility now. We cannot just hunker down and wait while social and economic meltdown occur. Global economic shutdown was never the response to mass death/pandemics before, and IMO, this will go down as the worst response to a pandemic ever.

 

Not just deaths which are way down, hospitalizations and ICU cases as well. Increased case numbers are not a concern (these also come with increased testing and the very flawed nature of the PCR test). There were likely huge numbers of cases which were not confirmed in that first impact of the disease in March and April. However, it's only deaths and hospitalizations that have importance. I reiterate, higher case numbers will increase immunity; there is ample evidence for this.

 

Death rates may be higher than we see, but it will not even be close to the Spanish flu (the nightmare scenario). The two are not at all comparable (not saying you compared them either). In addition the "second wave" of the Spanish flu may not have been the Spanish flu, but may have been the return of another flu virus (or a mutation) as it hit demographics which the first and third waves never hit, and which covid 19 doesn't hit. Also, realize coronaviruses are much more stable than flu viruses so the likelihood of a deadlier mutation is highly improbable (again touching an issue you didn't mention but it has relevance).

 

Certainly precautions and mitigation are necessary and will be needed going forward.

 

 

[patman30]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Most hospitals in Italy were deserted?  You seriously believe that?  Wow....where do you get your news?

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/not-a-wave-a-tsunami-italy-hospitals-at-virus-limit

 

you totally deflect from his comment, as it seems you are unaware of what he is talking about
you obviously dont do much if any research at all
just keep watching and believing everything on MSM, you will be just fine.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-news-admits-mistake-after-airing-footage-of-overcrowded-nyc-hospital-that-was-actually-in-italy

[patman30]

53 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

due to a better understanding of the disease

like death rate is nowhere near as bad as it was initially SPECULATED to be
or most people do not even have any symptoms
and the only way to know is by taking a non specific test that uses 45x amplification

has the virus even been isolated yet ?

please do post sources to these recent scientific studies that now help us better understand the disease
and links to the scientific studies that show the sars-cov-2 virus causes the disease covid19

 

53 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Herd immunity is a myth

You can also also back this up while you're at it
completely false statement

Edited October 1, 2020 by patman30

[Pottinger]

TV Covid-19 experts all over this one. Who'd have thought there were so many in one website?

[tlandtday]

Hate to break it to them but there will not be an effective vaccine as it has mutated and continues to do so.  When is the last time you saw one for aids or many other similar illnesses????

[vermin on arrival]

33 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

Hate to break it to them but there will not be an effective vaccine as it has mutated and continues to do so.  When is the last time you saw one for aids or many other similar illnesses????

Well coronaviruses are more stable than flu viruses so it is likely that a vaccine of some type will occur at some point with some kind of efficacy, but it seems to be a grave error to rely on this as the way forward.

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, patman30 said:

like death rate is nowhere near as bad as it was initially SPECULATED to be
or most people do not even have any symptoms
and the only way to know is by taking a non specific test that uses 45x amplification

has the virus even been isolated yet ?

please do post sources to these recent scientific studies that now help us better understand the disease
and links to the scientific studies that show the sars-cov-2 virus causes the disease covid19

 

You can also also back this up while you're at it
completely false statement

Fauci predicted 200k deaths by September. He was spot on.

 

Not sure what you are talking about regarding CV19?

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

 

 

First, it isn't yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.

Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected.

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

ection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected.

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

 

Edited October 1, 2020 by Jeffr2
edit

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, patman30 said:

you totally deflect from his comment, as it seems you are unaware of what he is talking about
you obviously dont do much if any research at all
just keep watching and believing everything on MSM, you will be just fine.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-news-admits-mistake-after-airing-footage-of-overcrowded-nyc-hospital-that-was-actually-in-italy

Your picking on one bad news report? Seriously?

[Jeffr2]

Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine won't be ready until 2021

 

https://www.axios.com/moderna-ceo-coronavirus-vaccine-2021-4ea78750-8aab-497a-b11e-d8771630f3e8.html

[Sheryl]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine won't be ready until 2021

 

https://www.axios.com/moderna-ceo-coronavirus-vaccine-2021-4ea78750-8aab-497a-b11e-d8771630f3e8.html

 

Won't be ready for general use. Might be available for priority groups like medical workers at the end of 2020. And general availability could be as soon as early spring 2021.

 

But this means "availability" in terms of FDA approval.  Availability in terms of on the clinics and hospitals etc having it in sufficient supply is a whole other matter.

 

And of course it assumes no untoward surprises from the Phase III trials now underway.

[ourmanflint]

34 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Won't be ready for general use. Might be available for priority groups like medical workers at the end of 2020. And general availability could be as soon as early spring 2021.

 

But this means "availability" in terms of FDA approval.  Availability in terms of on the clinics and hospitals etc having it in sufficient supply is a whole other matter.

 

And of course it assumes no untoward surprises from the Phase III trials now underway.

As i said earlier, it will be 2022 at the earliest that countries like Thailand will receive substantial amounts of any vaccine. Those in govt need to understand and factor this into their plans

[sawadee1947]

5 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

No it makes 100% sense.

There will be limited supplies of vaccines no matter what anybody says, and because Thailand has zero cases, it will be last on the list to receive vaccines, this is just basic common sense. The vaccine will go first to countries that have bad outbreaks or continue to have outbreaks, and that will take a while. I'm sure Thailand will get a token amount, but if you think the general population will get access in 2021 you are dreaming

I love dreaming........ more than telling nonsense. 

[DrTuner]

14 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

For those of us over 70, yes, shutting down the globe is OK.  We have rights also.

Can't wait to be 70. When I reach that, I will order the world to stop so I can go lalllaa on the streets without being bothered. Powwah.

[DavisH]

11 hours ago, Donga said:

 

 

Banning people on Thai beaches is crazy. Covid-19 doesn't thrive at all in Thai, or most countries outdoors. This is well established, so any expert suggesting extending the ban probably can't swim.

Myanmar recorded 1000+ cases today. Tell me how much more susceptible the Burmese are than Thais. I would be very surprised if cases do not spill over the border (illegal migrants) in the next 2-3 months - as it did when it entered Myanmar from Bangladesh. 

[vermin on arrival]

3 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Fauci predicted 200k deaths by September. He was spot on.

 

Not sure what you are talking about regarding CV19?

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

 

 

First, it isn't yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.

Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected.

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

ection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected.

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

 

It is increasingly clear that infection with covid 19 makes one highly unlikely for reinfection and reinfection would most likely not be severe if one gets it.

 

Herd immunity is likely much lower than 70% with roughly 30% of the population having t-cell immunity, as well as other forms of immunity (b-cell and cross coronavirus immunity, etc). Some posit it down to 50% and others all the way down to 20% with antibodies to severely slow the incidence of infection (examples NYC, London and Stockholm).

 

Fauci has changed his statements many times. I liked Michael Levitt's analysis even though he is not an epidemiologist when he thought it would be between 500 to 1000 infections per million of population so in the 165-320k deaths for the US

 

Those numbers of deaths you are putting down for the US to reach herd immunity are completely absurd. They are on the par with the nonsensical mathematical models that Neil Ferguson put out at the beginning of the pandemic.

[patman30]

4 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Your picking on one bad news report? Seriously?

it was then spread by many news outlets
i was simply posting the link as you seemed to have no clue what the other poster was talking about

as for the rest of the drivel you parrot
(as no actual scientific studies were referenced)
and to note, the link you provided also contradicts YOUR statement "herd immunity is a myth"
Remember "flatten the curve"
this was the logic behind the lockdowns initially
flatten the curve whilst herd immunity was to be acheived, as to not put stress on the hospitals
maybe with your old age your memory is not as clear these days, i dont know

 

 

and back to your statement i intially quoted
this is where your fear gets others,
dont worry about other peoples rights or lives, lockdown the globe,
as long as YOU feel safe yeh ?

Sick children without covid-19 dying at home as parents told not to take them to hospital

 

reputable source
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1265437/Sick-children-dying-home-parents-not-to-go-to-hospital

 

 

Edited October 1, 2020 by patman30

[impulse]

16 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

For those of us over 70, yes, shutting down the globe is OK.  We have rights also.

 

Those daily number of deaths are expected to rise dramatically very soon.

 

Easy answer.  Wear masks, social distance, abide by the directives from the medical experts.

 

You do have rights.  The right to take whatever precautions you deem appropriate FOR YOU.   And you have a pension.  You've made your nugget (or not...) 

 

Yet you would deny the rights of younger people to continue making a living so they can enjoy the same rights you're enjoying.  Because the directives from the medical experts have huge swaths of the economy shut down.  Millions unemployed.   Businesses closing down for good.  Careers derailed.  Homes foreclosed and people evicted.

 

To protect, it now seems, the folks who have the least to lose by shutting everything down.   That's a classic case of "I'm all right Jack"

 

Edit:  BTW, I'd add that those Medical Experts...  They still have their jobs.  Ya think their directives would be any different if it meant putting themselves out on the dole?

 

Edited October 1, 2020 by impulse

[vermin on arrival]

4 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover

 

 

From a different thread for Dr John Cambell's discussion immunity on youtube on August 18,2020. I can provide you with a link if you would like. :

 

Actually there have been a few studies lately (this August)that show immunity will likely last for years, a vaccine will likely work, if developed, and that even people who have no antibodies and mild or asymptomatic cases will likely have long term immunity based on T-Cell and B-cell memory. Please watch the entirety of this video; I watched it last night it was very informative and encouraging. We have been grossly misinformed by overly cautious statements by health care officials who are leading people to believe that this virus doesn't act like any other viruses of it's ilk.

 

First study discussed was from the University of Washington based on an outbreak on a fishing vessel in which 104 people out of 122 were infected (1 with a serious case-slightly less than 1% serious). Three on the vessel had antibodies and none were infected or developed symptoms on the trip. 101 of the 104 infected developed antibodies within 50 days of their infection (most much quicker than that).

 

Second study out of Stockholm discussed T-Cell memory. It showed that people with no antibodies and who even had mild or asymptomatic cases, developed specific T-Cell markers for Sars-Cov 2 and had robust t-cell memory and believe that people with additional exposure to the disease will likely not have a severe case; also means a vaccine will likely be effective in the future. Although not discussed in the video the Swedish medical authorities have stated that based on T-cell studies in Stockholm, they believe 30% have these specific t-cells and from this study believe that this form of immunity will likely last for years similar to the original SARS disease.

 

Third Study from the University of Washington studied people with mild symptoms and the development of antibodies and b-cell and t-cell memory. It showed that exposure to the virus resulted in rapid t-cell replication and that memory b-cells expressed antibodies to the virus.

 

All 3 studies showed the same thing, that regardless of the severity of the disease that there was likely to be long lived immunity to the disease. People either get antibodies or t and b-cell memory specific to the virus. Herd immunity is likely achievable and that vaccines, if developed, are likely to be effective. People with good t-cell response will likely not get a severe case now or in the future and should have long term immunity of some kind.

 

Even if no vaccine ends up being developed some kind of herd immunity should eventually take place even if the disease is endemic.

 

 

Edited October 1, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[ourmanflint]

2 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

I love dreaming........ more than telling nonsense. 

You obviously have zero understanding of how things work, so might as well carry on