Popular Post lkv Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 8 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said: If you listen to most T-V members, the sky is always falling and all of us farangs were supposed to be kicked out 20 years ago ???????????? It's gradually falling I would say, with great success from the current administration. If Kasikorn estimated 80K "retirees" in 2018, I estimate probably 160K in 2014 and as of today, 20-40K. Many are gone already. So now, the challenge is to thin this 20-40K further, and that will be easily achieved over the next 2 years. Don't tell me you reckon any fresh retirees are coming with current scammy requirements, do you? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banana7 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 22 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said: During the last financial crash, 2008/09, dozens of Western banks and financial institutions went bust or needed government bailouts...none in Thailand. I'd be more worried about having funds in over-leveraged Western banks than Thai ones. But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaidDown Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Banana7 said: But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs. "Lots of Thai banks went bust" I do not think so. The only one I actually remember was Bangkok Bank of Crooks Comerce which was taken over by the bank of Thailand and nobody lost money. It was not the Thai banks that got hit by NPLs as most property companies had borrowed from overseas banks as the interest rates were less than half the 16% in Thailand. After the crash companies had to find almost double the amount of Baht to service their loans so it was companies that failed not Thai banks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Airalee Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Banana7 said: But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs. I’m betting it will be worse this time around. They can extend and pretend all they want but the ugly unknown is...are the loans gonna get paid back? I’m betting not. In the last 15 years, (2005-2020) household debt has more than quadrupled whereas GDP and GDP per capita has less than tripled. https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=775&language=eng https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/THA/thailand/gdp-gross-domestic-product I know Thais (some who own multiple condos...currently with no renters) taking out second mortgages in order to pay the first mortgage (and still not curtailing their discretionary expenditure). Edited October 11, 2020 by Airalee 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banana7 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, ThaidDown said: "Lots of Thai banks went bust" I do not think so. The only one I actually remember was Bangkok Bank of Crooks Comerce which was taken over by the bank of Thailand and nobody lost money. It was not the Thai banks that got hit by NPLs as most property companies had borrowed from overseas banks as the interest rates were less than half the 16% in Thailand. After the crash companies had to find almost double the amount of Baht to service their loans so it was companies that failed not Thai banks. Here is what I remember. In 1997, once Chawalit resigned, his Government was replaced by a Democrat Party-led coalition under Chuan Leekpai. The new finance minister, Tarrin Nimmanhaemind, was regarded as a reliable “bankers’ man”. This suggestion was born out by the fact that the Government quickly moved to nationalise the private debts of 56 failed banks and finance companies, which the Chawalit Government had already closed, and then proceeded to set aside a further 300 billion baht of state funds to boost the capital of existing banks. In total, the Government committed at least 1.2 trillion baht of public money to prop up the banking system and the savings of the rich and middle-classes. Edited October 11, 2020 by Banana7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Pottinger Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 On 10/11/2020 at 3:54 PM, ThaidDown said: "Lots of Thai banks went bust" I do not think so. The only one I actually remember was Bangkok Bank of Crooks Comerce which was taken over by the bank of Thailand and nobody lost money. It was not the Thai banks that got hit by NPLs as most property companies had borrowed from overseas banks as the interest rates were less than half the 16% in Thailand. After the crash companies had to find almost double the amount of Baht to service their loans so it was companies that failed not Thai banks. "At the peak after the crisis, nearly 50% of the banking system's loan portfolio was made up of NPLs". https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/It-was-20-years-ago-that-the-Thai-central-bank-panicked I recall too that two-thirds of finance companies went bust, by some measures all. I was working for one at the time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussienam Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 On 10/10/2020 at 1:30 PM, Airalee said: Only a complete financial illiterate would put 3 million baht into a Thai bank when the deposit protection drops to ONE million baht next year. Wonder if deposits could be spread across three + banks? I thought bonds were also included? Even so, 3 Million Baht is a big amount for most people to have sitting in a bank losing value due to CPI annual adjustments, negligible interest rates, etc. Unless you are a property developer/tycoon then 3 Million Baht is spare change. Plenty of very wealthy Chinese would do it as property market would be looking attractive for long term investors. Multi millionaire and billionaires being targeted for this visa type. Not the average retiree with a condo or even a couple of condos unless you are insanely desperate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pattaya Spotter Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Banana7 said: But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs. And they learned their lesson...thus no problems in 2008/09. In addition, the 1997 crisis was a currency crash, when the artificially pegged Thai baht/US dollar exchange rate could no longer be sustained by the Bank of Thailand and foreign currency denominated loans take out by Thai businesses and property developers couldnt be paid back. That’s not the case today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pattaya Spotter Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 3 hours ago, Airalee said: Risk tolerance refers to investing...not putting money in the bank. I put my money in a bank because I don’t want risk. I’m not looking for return on capital but rather return of capital. “Risk tolerance is the degree of variability in investment returns that an investor is willing to withstand in their financial planning.“ https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risktolerance.asp Didn't you say the depositors in WaMu with balances over FDIC limits lost their money when it went bust...now you're saying banks are risk free. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pattaya Spotter Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 2 hours ago, lkv said: It's gradually falling I would say, with great success from the current administration. If Kasikorn estimated 80K "retirees" in 2018, I estimate probably 160K in 2014 and as of today, 20-40K. Many are gone already. So now, the challenge is to thin this 20-40K further, and that will be easily achieved over the next 2 years. Don't tell me you reckon any fresh retirees are coming with current scammy requirements, do you? The most recent figures I have seen for foreign retirees in Thailand is on the order of 75-80k (2017/18). I seriously doubt the figure has halved since then. Whether any more come or not is no concern of mine but if it makes for less congestion at the immigration office, I'm all for them not coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Airalee Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said: Didn't you say the depositors in WaMu with balances over FDIC limits lost their money when it went bust...now you're saying banks are risk free. Which is it? Try to keep up. Choosing to have deposits over the insured limit is one thing. Being forced to is another. You’re starting to sound like a shill. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pattaya Spotter Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Airalee said: Try to keep up. Choosing to have deposits over the insured limit is one thing. Being forced to is another. You’re starting to sound like a shill. Nobody is being forced to do anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post newnative Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 3 hours ago, aussiexpat said: Meanwhile, I'm enjoying reality on the Covid free Gold Coast...no need to jump through any hoops I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam. They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Olmate Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, newnative said: I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam. They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!! And he forgot to mention the sharks! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blumpie Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 57 minutes ago, newnative said: I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam. They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!! It's so you will rent an umbrella from those "saints". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post A512 Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 sell it all, find a better country to move or just stay home. I never bought anything here and will never do. this people are so greedy!!! 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post elliss Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 (edited) On 10/10/2020 at 10:22 AM, PST said: None of the Non B's listed on the Embassy website mentions Foreign house owners, so why do they need to apply for a NON B visa to enter Thailand? Foreign house owners . In Thailand ?. Please , keep me informed . A Thai Government link , would be much appreciated .. Edited October 11, 2020 by elliss 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post elliss Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 5 hours ago, lkv said: Don't tell me you reckon any fresh retirees are coming with current scammy requirements, do you? However that said . We are often referred to as Stupid farlangs. If the cap fits , wear it ... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anto Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 7 hours ago, newnative said: I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam. They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!! >>you can check out any time you like but you can never leave ( Australia ) << 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post hotchilli Posted October 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 11, 2020 Held to ransom as usual, why should people have to hold 3 million in a Thai bank ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A512 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, hotchilli said: Held to ransom as usual, why should people have to hold 3 million in a Thai bank ? perhaps they want use the money without the person'$ cob$ent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post meechai Posted October 12, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 12, 2020 2 hours ago, hotchilli said: Held to ransom as usual, why should people have to hold 3 million in a Thai bank ? Probably to shore up the NPL's ???? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post berrec Posted October 12, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 12, 2020 OMG these clowns are actually setting government policy on Thailand travel. it's just a continuous circle of comedy musical chairs, You can not make this stuff up or should I say stuff-ups. You really would like to be a fly on the wall when these brain surgeons sit down and dream up these ongoing changing policies. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
essox essox Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 12 hours ago, elliss said: Foreign house owners . In Thailand ?. Please , keep me informed . A Thai Government link , would be much appreciated .. farangs can only OWN condos.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newnative Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 14 hours ago, Blumpie said: It's so you will rent an umbrella from those "saints". Guess I should have made it clear that there are plenty of trees on Pattaya Beach. As I type this I'm looking at people sitting in the shade under them--long holiday weekend and the big north Pattaya hotels are doing ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johng Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, newnative said: long holiday weekend Its a long holiday weekend again ? https://www.pattayamail.com/news/pattaya-beach-vendors-bemoan-parking-but-other-factors-sending-thais-to-jomtien-328598 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
micmichd Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/10/2020 at 5:04 PM, Pattaya Spotter said: I agree they do seem to be chasing their tails...but don't think it has anything to do with race. I'm accepted here although I'm not Thai. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumpy John Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, johng said: Its a long holiday weekend again ? https://www.pattayamail.com/news/pattaya-beach-vendors-bemoan-parking-but-other-factors-sending-thais-to-jomtien-328598 You make it sound like a bad thing! All the hard working government employees are entitled to some R and R too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Banana7 Posted October 12, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 12, 2020 (edited) 18 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said: And they learned their lesson...thus no problems in 2008/09. In addition, the 1997 crisis was a currency crash, when the artificially pegged Thai baht/US dollar exchange rate could no longer be sustained by the Bank of Thailand and foreign currency denominated loans take out by Thai businesses and property developers couldnt be paid back. That’s not the case today. Big problems are coming. Bank and finance company NPLs are rising because BOT's debt suspension scheme ends Oct. 22. This scheme avoided classifying true NPLs as a NPL. One bank reported loans 1-3 months behind in payment are now at 7-8 per cent, normally at 3%. This bank foresees lots more NPLs, and needs to more tier 1 capital so it is issuing USD$500 million in perpetual bonds on Oct. 14, yield 5-6%. One of the conditions on the bonds is that they cannot be repaid within 5 years. Other banks will be following this pattern. Another way banks could increase tier 1, is to issue shares, but their prices are depressed because of the NPLs, and forecast of reduced profits. Estimates are as high as 40% of loans will become non-performing, which equates to about 2 trillion baht. 40% of all loans were registered in BOT's debt suspension scheme! Lots of banks and finance companies will be looking for capital/cash to stay alive. They will have to go to foreign currencies/markets to get that enormous amount of capital. Edited October 12, 2020 by Banana7 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newnative Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, johng said: Its a long holiday weekend again ? https://www.pattayamail.com/news/pattaya-beach-vendors-bemoan-parking-but-other-factors-sending-thais-to-jomtien-328598 Tuesday, Oct. 13 is a holiday so some Thais have taken today off to make a long weekend. I noticed lots of lights on last night at Centre Point, Holiday Inn, Mytt, Cape Dara, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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