Foreign property owners now allowed to return to Thailand

[lkv 3,868]

8 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

If you listen to most T-V members, the sky is always falling and all of us farangs were supposed to be kicked out 20 years ago 

It's gradually falling I would say, with great success from the current administration.

 

If Kasikorn estimated 80K "retirees" in 2018, I estimate probably 160K in 2014 and as of today, 20-40K.

 

Many are gone already.

 

So now, the challenge is to thin this 20-40K further, and that will be easily achieved over the next 2 years.

 

Don't tell me you reckon any fresh retirees are coming with current scammy requirements, do you?

[Banana7 1,292]

22 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

During the last financial crash, 2008/09, dozens of Western banks and financial institutions went bust or needed government bailouts...none in Thailand. I'd be more worried about having funds in over-leveraged Western banks than Thai ones.

But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs.

[ThaidDown 2,983]

7 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs.

"Lots of Thai banks went bust"  I do not think so. The only one I actually remember was Bangkok Bank of Crooks Comerce which was taken over by the bank of Thailand and nobody lost money.

 

It was not the Thai banks that got hit by NPLs as most property companies had borrowed from overseas banks as the interest rates were less than half the 16% in Thailand.

 

After the crash companies had to find almost double the amount of Baht to service their loans so it was companies that failed not Thai banks.

 

[Airalee 3,631]

24 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs.

I’m betting it will be worse this time around.  They can extend and pretend all they want but the ugly unknown is...are the loans gonna get paid back?  I’m betting not.

 

In the last 15 years, (2005-2020) household debt has more than quadrupled whereas GDP and GDP per capita has less than tripled.
 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=775&language=eng

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/THA/thailand/gdp-gross-domestic-product

I know Thais (some who own multiple condos...currently with no renters) taking out second mortgages in order to pay the first mortgage (and still not curtailing their discretionary expenditure).

Edited October 11, 2020 by Airalee

[Banana7 1,292]

16 minutes ago, ThaidDown said:

"Lots of Thai banks went bust"  I do not think so. The only one I actually remember was Bangkok Bank of Crooks Comerce which was taken over by the bank of Thailand and nobody lost money.

 

It was not the Thai banks that got hit by NPLs as most property companies had borrowed from overseas banks as the interest rates were less than half the 16% in Thailand.

 

After the crash companies had to find almost double the amount of Baht to service their loans so it was companies that failed not Thai banks.

 

Here is what I remember.

 

In 1997, once Chawalit resigned, his Government was replaced by a Democrat Party-led coalition under Chuan Leekpai. The new finance minister, Tarrin Nimmanhaemind, was regarded as a reliable “bankers’ man”. This suggestion was born out by the fact that the Government quickly moved to nationalise the private debts of 56 failed banks and finance companies, which the Chawalit Government had already closed, and then proceeded to set aside a further 300 billion baht of state funds to boost the capital of existing banks. In total, the Government committed at least 1.2 trillion baht of public money to prop up the banking system and the savings of the rich and middle-classes.

Edited October 11, 2020 by Banana7

[Pottinger 1,267]

On 10/11/2020 at 3:54 PM, ThaidDown said:

"Lots of Thai banks went bust"  I do not think so. The only one I actually remember was Bangkok Bank of Crooks Comerce which was taken over by the bank of Thailand and nobody lost money.

 

It was not the Thai banks that got hit by NPLs as most property companies had borrowed from overseas banks as the interest rates were less than half the 16% in Thailand.

 

After the crash companies had to find almost double the amount of Baht to service their loans so it was companies that failed not Thai banks.

 

"At the peak after the crisis, nearly 50% of the banking system's loan portfolio was made up of NPLs".

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/It-was-20-years-ago-that-the-Thai-central-bank-panicked

 

I recall too that two-thirds of finance companies went bust, by some measures all. I was working for one at the time.

[aussienam 981]

On 10/10/2020 at 1:30 PM, Airalee said:

Only a complete financial illiterate would put 3 million baht into a Thai bank when the deposit protection drops to ONE million baht next year.  

Wonder if deposits could be spread across three + banks?  I thought bonds were also included?  

Even so, 3 Million Baht is a big amount for most people to have sitting in a bank losing value due to CPI annual adjustments, negligible interest rates, etc.  Unless you are a property developer/tycoon then 3 Million Baht is spare change.  Plenty of very wealthy Chinese would do it as property market would be looking attractive for long term investors.  Multi millionaire and billionaires being targeted for this visa type.  

Not the average retiree with a condo or even a couple of condos unless you are insanely desperate.

[Pattaya Spotter 2,769]

2 hours ago, Banana7 said:

But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs.

And they learned their lesson...thus no problems in 2008/09. In addition, the 1997 crisis was a currency crash, when the artificially pegged Thai baht/US dollar exchange rate could no longer be sustained by the Bank of Thailand and foreign  currency denominated loans take out by Thai businesses and property developers couldnt be paid back. That’s not the case today. 

[Pattaya Spotter 2,769]

3 hours ago, Airalee said:

Risk tolerance refers to investing...not putting money in the bank.  I put my money in a bank because I don’t want risk.  I’m not looking for return on capital but rather return of capital.

 

“Risk tolerance is the degree of variability in investment returns that an investor is willing to withstand in their financial planning.“

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risktolerance.asp

 

Didn't you say the depositors in WaMu with balances over FDIC limits lost their money when it went bust...now you're saying banks are risk free. Which is it?

[Pattaya Spotter 2,769]

2 hours ago, lkv said:

It's gradually falling I would say, with great success from the current administration.

 

If Kasikorn estimated 80K "retirees" in 2018, I estimate probably 160K in 2014 and as of today, 20-40K.

 

Many are gone already.

 

So now, the challenge is to thin this 20-40K further, and that will be easily achieved over the next 2 years.

 

Don't tell me you reckon any fresh retirees are coming with current scammy requirements, do you?

The most recent figures I have seen for foreign retirees in Thailand is on the order of 75-80k (2017/18). I seriously doubt the figure has halved since then. Whether any more come or not is no concern of mine but if it makes for less congestion at the immigration office, I'm all for them not coming.

[Airalee 3,631]

10 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Didn't you say the depositors in WaMu with balances over FDIC limits lost their money when it went bust...now you're saying banks are risk free. Which is it?

Try to keep up.  Choosing to have deposits over the insured limit is one thing.  Being forced to is another.

 

You’re starting to sound like a shill.

[Pattaya Spotter 2,769]

7 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Try to keep up.  Choosing to have deposits over the insured limit is one thing.  Being forced to is another.

 

You’re starting to sound like a shill.

Nobody is being forced to do anything.

[newnative 5,588]

3 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

Meanwhile, I'm enjoying reality on the Covid free Gold Coast...no need to jump through any hoops

   I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam.  They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!!

[Olmate 1,990]

11 minutes ago, newnative said:

   I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam.  They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!!

And he forgot to mention the sharks! 

[Blumpie 1,466]

57 minutes ago, newnative said:

   I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam.  They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!!

It's so you will rent an umbrella from those "saints".