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COVID-19 is not going away soon or ever


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10 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

Sorry NZ is not open to any of Australia and has not been at any stage since March. Ardern has stated that there is no intention to open the border before a vaccine. A two travel bubble has been mooted, at the moment it is some one way, NZ can come to some Australian states. The problem for NZ is her stated long term strategy is elimination of the virus, Australia has opted for suppression, supposedly. Even though it might look the same, Australia says it will live with a few cases and suppress every outbreak. Australian state Premiers might not be totally on board with this, and thats a problem. NZ cant open the travel bubble and risk it according to Ardern. In Melbourne today was the long awaited day to reduce restrictions and open businesses. They had reached the long stated target of 5 cases per day average. No, the Premier says, still too dangerous. The political flak this week is going to be intense and so it should be. 

And yet Arden won in a landslide.  So obviously, the majority of the population there are for her.

 

Trump seems to be losing in a landslide.  And a majority don't think he's done well with regards to the virus.  I mean, he couldn't even protect himself, his family and his inner circle.  How's he going to protect us?

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Not like a regular flu at all. They want masks and distancing to be permanent. None of that happened for regular flu or any other diseases, far as I know. I'm happy to go back to life as pre coro

eventually, everyone will copy sweden and move on as it was a year ago, but its bitter and humiliating for politicians around the world to admit they committed high treason on their own coun

Not to mention that they have destroyed their countries' already fragile economies, that will need years to recover, if ever...

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1 hour ago, PatrickC said:

 

NZ is highly subjective and depends how you measure success. 

 

I heard today that Andrews is extending lockdown. Lucky you. Like a dog chasing its tail, Victoria's lockdown might never end.

 

I guess you are also in a white collar job and are working from home, so you can support the lockdown easily.

 

It is usually middle class work from home types who support lockdowns, since they're not losing their jobs. Just let the working classes suffer.

I agreed with the lockdown but I agree they are now taking it too far. Having 6 cases in the northern suburbs and shutting down the whole of Melbourne's 5 million population is now over the top.  

I do have a government job working from home so it's fine for me.

My thai ex has a business and has not been able to work for weeks.

750 cases a day means a lockdown is smart but for 6 it's getting ridiculous. The state of New South Wales is open with similar cases. 

Before we all get too excited though he is just talking about delaying it for a couple of days until a large amount of test results come back. My guess is he'll announce in a few days that retail and other businesses open next Monday.

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[quote]

... in Luang Prabang where I understand you are, it's mostly small family owned businesses and thus no need to wear a mask. Not sure what the Chinese supermarket does but probably not enforcing it.

[/quote]

 

You don't wear a mask just because it is the rule!  Now it is no longer a rule to wear a mask in shops/close contact etc.  But even before Covid-19, many people (including myself) always wore a mask in the shops - it is a common courtesy so as to minimise the risk of catching or passing on any airborne pathogen.  Most local people that I see in the supermarket and fresh market wear a mask.  I do likewise and think nothing of it.

 

Laos is not Covid-free, but the only few current cases are from those entering from other countries - there is no 'home' infections.

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2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Lockdown supporters are generally medical experts and those who accept science.  Those against it are covid deniers.

Agreed - I'm a scientist and teach (among many science topics), about human pathogens to higher-level students.  I recognise the medical benefit of lockdowns to minimise the spread of a virus.  But there is also the huge economic and social fallout to consider.  I'm glad I'm not a politician...

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9 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Exactly. That's what many covid19 deniers harp on about.  Lockdowns are just one part of the solution.  Not the only one.  Until the virus is under control, things won't get back to normal.

 

A lockdown is the result of a failure of the government to implement public health measures quickly and effectively.  Neither S. Korea nor Taiwan ever locked down, but that's because they have been surveiling China for emerging pathogens for years with a ready plan to suppress any outbreak.  And that's what they did by putting in testing, isolation, and contact tracing.  If you miss the window of opportunity to put these best practices into effect, then you'll have to do a lockdown to get the counts down enough to follow best practices again.  

 

Those who oppose a lockdown are insisting on yet more devastating spread of disease and decline of the economy.

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3 hours ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

Before we all get too excited though he is just talking about delaying it for a couple of days until a large amount of test results come back. My guess is he'll announce in a few days that retail and other businesses open next Monday.

So if they get a few positive tests they will remain in lockdown and if the rolling average rises above 5 cases it's back into lockdown for a few more months,such a depressing outlook for Victoria.

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2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

A lockdown is the result of a failure of the government to implement public health measures quickly and effectively.  Neither S. Korea nor Taiwan ever locked down, but that's because they have been surveiling China for emerging pathogens for years with a ready plan to suppress any outbreak.  And that's what they did by putting in testing, isolation, and contact tracing.  If you miss the window of opportunity to put these best practices into effect, then you'll have to do a lockdown to get the counts down enough to follow best practices again.  

 

Those who oppose a lockdown are insisting on yet more devastating spread of disease and decline of the economy.

S. Korea did a lock down.  As you say, it's only one part of the process.  Spot on!!!!

 

I think Taiwan did a small lockdown of 1% of their population.  Both are gold standards as to handle the virus.  The US is the worst example.

 

https://www.axios.com/south-korea-covid-coronavirus-lockdown-30884b07-32d6-4ee6-b809-5f64498fab75.html

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Say for instance Biden wins and Trump stands aside so on 21 January Biden is there and the virus remains rampant in the middle of winter. What kind of lockdown would they have to endure? If Melbourne has had 3 to 4 months of very draconian restrictions to control a few hundred cases what would USA have to be. I dont know I'm asking. Surely it would have to be longer. Would the people accept that? Some might but I get the feeling with the current events it might be a bigger disaster than that just endured? Even in Europe now one gets the feeling that the hastily cobbled together patchwork lockdowns aren't going to stop it.

 

I think they are just trying to slow it down a bit while they go for herd immunity. I dont want to argue about that, just what I think.

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23 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Lockdown supporters are generally medical experts and those who accept science.  Those against it are covid deniers.

You are joking, right?

 

Scientific lockdown supporters are part of the herd. They are deathly afraid of letting people know what they actually think for fear of being overrun by the insanity mob. 

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There seems to be a misconception that with some potential Covid vaccines on the horizon, all problems will be solved and we will be back 'at normal' in no time. Say that a vaccine has an efficacy of 66% (note that the FDA in the US only requires 50% vs a placebo group for potential approval). That would not seem too bad (even so, of those 300 passengers waving there immune passports while waiting for their flight, a 100 would be susceptible to covid infection and some might actually have it without displaying symptoms). BUT, there is a second major factor, that is the antivaxxers clique. Suppose only 50% wants to be vaccinated (a figure commonly quoted for the US as an example) then the actual proportion of the total population protected from COVID infection is only 33%. Maybe a little more as some of the other 66% may already have had it or have natural defenses.

This is separate from other complications such as most vaccines having to be administered twice with a three-to-four week interval and the possibility that a vaccine might only be  effective for a number of months (and it is clear now that some people do get re-infected whereas originally this was attributed to tests detecting 'dead' virus of parts thereof that continued to be shedded over long periods).

All this has nothing to do with scare mongering but merely suggests that there is no easy way out and Covid-19 will not magically disappear. Nevertheless, life has to go on and I do not envy those that have to make critical decisions.

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13 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Depends on what you mean by a lockdown.  There was no lockdown of businesses in S. Korea.  Schools did close while universities went to online learning.  There was no national curfew.  Some areas that had large outbreaks like Daegu were locked down.  The Bank of Korea's governor estimates that the GDP for the year will be -1.3%, which is quite low by comparison with other rich countries.  By comparison with Lombardy or New York City in April, S. Korea hardly had a lockdown.  Same goes for Taiwan.  

 

S. Korea and Taiwan have competent governments that learned from SARS and MERS how to manage an epidemic.  Every one of the Western countries could have learned the same lesson, but didn't.  

13 people have  just died from a flue vaccine over there .

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