COVID-19 is not going away soon or ever

[cmarshall 2,974]

3 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

Say for instance Biden wins and Trump stands aside so on 21 January Biden is there and the virus remains rampant in the middle of winter. What kind of lockdown would they have to endure? If Melbourne has had 3 to 4 months of very draconian restrictions to control a few hundred cases what would USA have to be. I dont know I'm asking. Surely it would have to be longer. Would the people accept that? Some might but I get the feeling with the current events it might be a bigger disaster than that just endured? Even in Europe now one gets the feeling that the hastily cobbled together patchwork lockdowns aren't going to stop it.

 

I think they are just trying to slow it down a bit while they go for herd immunity. I dont want to argue about that, just what I think.

 

A strict lockdown for ten to twelve weeks should reduce the daily new case rate to a level low enough for effective contact tracing and isolation of positives.  That's assuming however, that the country has the capacity to do testing and effective contact tracing.  The US does not.  

 

China is essentially Covid-free.  People are back to work and the economy is growing again.  If the US fails to impose a strict and effective lockdown while they are ramping up testing and contact tracing, then Covid will just continue to ricochet around the country.  If immunity from infection is short-lived as with other coronaviruses, the epidemic could burst out again in full-force next year like new.  

 

Herd immunity is a concept that applies to vaccination programs and has never been produced just by infection.  

[FarFlungFalang 8,915]

20 hours ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

Yeah you can tell in the news tonight people have really had enough. They got a whole lot of test results late in the day. No cases. I'll bet that it will be open in a couple of days. 

Still say one over cautious premier doesn't mean lockdowns don't work. He stuffed up the quarantine too.

The other states got it right. I would be seriously p*ssed off tonight if I had a shop or other closed business.

Hope your cows are doing good. 

Yes lockdown do drive down infections but when they are lifted then the infections come back.Places that keep the infections very low will have to keep their restrictions,namely closed borders and quarantines,in place until the virus is eradicated from the entire planet.I've often asked if the same restrictions will be enforced for the flu?

The cows are doing well the bung leg has healed up.

 

[FarFlungFalang 8,915]

21 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Herd immunity is a concept that applies to vaccination programs and has never been produced just by infection. 

Vaccines have only been around for a short while and herd immunity has been the only option for as long as humans have been around even longer as long as there have been herds of animals infected by viruses.

[FarFlungFalang 8,915]

25 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

  If immunity from infection is short-lived as with other coronaviruses, the epidemic could burst out again in full-force next year like new.  

There have been studies that show immunity from coronaviruses lasting 17 years.

 

https://gulfnews.com/uae/how-long-does-immunity-to-sars-coronavirus-last-up-to-17-years-says-study-1.1597735244103

[thaibeachlovers 32,967]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

 

A strict lockdown for ten to twelve weeks should reduce the daily new case rate to a level low enough for effective contact tracing and isolation of positives.  That's assuming however, that the country has the capacity to do testing and effective contact tracing.  The US does not.  

 

China is essentially Covid-free.  People are back to work and the economy is growing again.  If the US fails to impose a strict and effective lockdown while they are ramping up testing and contact tracing, then Covid will just continue to ricochet around the country.  If immunity from infection is short-lived as with other coronaviruses, the epidemic could burst out again in full-force next year like new.  

 

Herd immunity is a concept that applies to vaccination programs and has never been produced just by infection.  

Joking, right? NZ locked down for about 4 weeks and it's stuffed the economy to a certain extent- the debt caused by supporting the enforced jobless is horrendous. I can't even begin to imagine how disastrous 12 weeks would be. I'm pretty sure most would have rebelled by about 6 weeks.

[cmarshall 2,974]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Joking, right? NZ locked down for about 4 weeks and it's stuffed the economy to a certain extent- the debt caused by supporting the enforced jobless is horrendous. I can't even begin to imagine how disastrous 12 weeks would be. I'm pretty sure most would have rebelled by about 6 weeks.

Which is worse: 12 weeks of total, expensive shutdown or the current, out-of-control pandemic without end?

[thaibeachlovers 32,967]

Just now, cmarshall said:

Which is worse: 12 weeks of total, expensive shutdown or the current, out-of-control pandemic without end?

Nothing, IMO is without end. Corona epidemic will probably end one way or another just like the previous ones that weakened and didn't even have a vaccine. Even the Spanish flu ended and there was no vaccine for that either.

That's not to say that it will be eliminated- it will, IMO, be like the flu.

 

Poverty caused by lockdowns might cause more disaster than the virus.

 

[cmarshall 2,974]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Nothing, IMO is without end. Corona epidemic will probably end one way or another just like the previous ones that weakened and didn't even have a vaccine. Even the Spanish flu ended and there was no vaccine for that either.

That's not to say that it will be eliminated- it will, IMO, be like the flu.

 

Poverty caused by lockdowns might cause more disaster than the virus.

 

So, fine.  The Spanish Flu last from Feb. 1918 to April 1920.  So, which is worse 12 weeks of expensive, total shutdown or another 14 months of the current, out-of-control pandemic, which also has a high economic cost?

 

China is Covid-free, including Wuhan.  The Wuhan lockdown lasted from Feb. 2 until April 8.  In 8 to 12 weeks life in the US could be normal or the death rate and economic costs could continue as they are right now.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers 32,967]

1 minute ago, cmarshall said:

So, fine.  The Spanish Flu last from Feb. 1918 to April 1920.  So, which is worse 12 weeks of expensive, total shutdown or another 14 months of the current, out-of-control pandemic, which also has a high economic cost?

 

China is Covid-free, including Wuhan.  The Wuhan lockdown lasted from Feb. 2 until April 8.  In 8 to 12 weeks life in the US could be normal or the death rate and economic costs could continue as they are right now.

 

 

You assume populations would accept 12 weeks- I think they would rebel. I hope we don't have to find out if I'm correct.

Are you unaware of the demonstrations against lockdowns? Google has the information.

[cmarshall 2,974]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You assume populations would accept 12 weeks- I think they would rebel. I hope we don't have to find out if I'm correct.

Are you unaware of the demonstrations against lockdowns? Google has the information.

Most would.  Mask-wearing is overwhelmingly supported.  For the rest, that is what the National Guard is for.

[FarFlungFalang 8,915]

30 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

So, fine.  The Spanish Flu last from Feb. 1918 to April 1920.  So, which is worse 12 weeks of expensive, total shutdown or another 14 months of the current, out-of-control pandemic, which also has a high economic cost?

 

China is Covid-free, including Wuhan.  The Wuhan lockdown lasted from Feb. 2 until April 8.  In 8 to 12 weeks life in the US could be normal or the death rate and economic costs could continue as they are right now.

 

 

China is still locked down for international travel and is not covid free they still have cases everyday.The Spanish flu didn't have such rapid travel as we do now so that's not a very good comparison.Good luck in trying to get the whole world to shut down for 12 weeks without anybody leaving their homes,imagine how many people die around the world from natural causes in 12 weeks what do you do with the thousands of dead bodies during a twelve week lockdown?It's just not feasible to do a total lockdown for something no deadlier than the flu.

Edited October 26, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[cmarshall 2,974]

20 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

China is still locked down for international travel and is not covid free they still have cases everyday.The Spanish flu didn't have such rapid travel as we do now so that's not a very good comparison.Good luck in trying to get the whole world to shut down for 12 weeks without anybody leaving their homes,imagine how many people die around the world from natural causes in 12 weeks what do you do with the thousands of dead bodies during a twelve week lockdown?It's just not feasible to do a total lockdown for something no deadlier than the flu.

 

I was considering the US, not the whole world, but if one-by-one the governments lockdown for up to 12 weeks, then the epidemic can be licked even without a vaccine.  The truculently anti-science governments like the UK and Brazil will be left to themselves.

[Bluetongue 1,218]

Been watching Singapore for a while. Most of the regular population, very compliant, very low average infection rate. 300k dorm workers of whom more than 1/6 were confirmed to have the infection. However this mass testing was carried out between May and August, ie well after it started. They are not sure how many might have been asympotomatic and not tested, or had recovered by the time of the tests, but it would be some but not in the 5 to 10 times range as elsewhere. Serological tests are required to determine this. But herd immunity could not be obtained according to Professor Cook unless about half of them had it. He said that more than a month ago, and was ruling it out at that time. Since then confirmed rates have dropped right down again but I haven't seen the serological test results. I'm not an expert, however this is interesting as a large scale testing has occurred of a particular mostly young and healthy and separate population, only 28 deaths out of 57k cases in Singapore, 95% of which were dorm workers. 

[balo 12,649]

I doubt a big nation like China is COVID-19 free. They will do their best to to hide any outbreaks to avoid more negative media attention.  

[paulikens 408]

On 10/16/2020 at 11:43 AM, vandeventer said:

With all these vaccines coming out and the great meds. that Trump took, this covid-19 should be history in 6 months or sooner. It's the covid-20 that worries me. I hope the new tourist won't be bringing it with them.

well they havent got long  for covid 20 to come in there's only 2 months left of 2020