COVID-19 is not going away soon or ever

[polpott 5,252]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Whoa, not so 'fast'.

 

Smallpox mutates slowly so vaccines are easy to make.  Smallpox is double stranded DNA and coronavirus is single stand RNA. DNA has a mutation resistant backup copy that RNA doesn't. In fact, there have already been two significant SARS2 mutations. Vaccines will come but it may not be a magic bullet like smallpox.

Suggest you read the latest info om the Oxford University/Astra Zenica vaccine. Its safe effective and has been in mass production for some time now. Expect all the I's dotted and the Ts crossed on the trials by Christmas.

[scammed 1,765]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

It's been proven Sweden's approach didn't work.  NO herd immunity, much higher cases and deaths than nearby neighbors, and an economy that performed worse than these neighbors.

 

From your source.  We know death rates follow cases by 2-4 weeks.

no, from my link, we know death doesnt follow cases,

there is no correlation, try harder

[Fat is a type of crazy 1,132]

I think we all get both sides of the argument and there is potentially some valid points on each. But if you were the actual decision maker you have to look at the facts and decide.

I can't see any reason, or conspiracy theory, as to why my Government in Australia, New Zealand or the French govt etc would lock down except that they've done the maths and worked out that the best overall outcome to save lives is to wear masks, social distance and to have some form of lockdown in major breakouts.

It's easy to be cynical of governments, but I am not an expert on this topic, and sometimes you have to accept that, and let others who are, decide. If someone can show me why a government would find a lockdown desirable, without resorting to unproven conspiracy theories, please let me know. 

A lockdown in extreme circumstances  is harsh but it is effective.

If simply separating the vulnerable would work they would do that. 

To just say that I want to be free to live my life, lets call it a Trump approach,  sounds nice but evidence suggests it leads to bad outcomes. Not sure if being free means that you are happy to wear masks and social distance.

Look at the Unites States today. Is this the outcome that is satisfactory to you. There are less deaths now, due to doctors learning how to deal with it, but still 1000 per day and rising. The above average deaths for 2020 are higher than the toll suggesting the figures are underreported. Then there are many with lingering side effects.

The vaccine is objectively not far away. Chill. Keep people safe and if cases get way out of hand lockdown for a while.

 

[Jeffr2 8,318]

32 minutes ago, scammed said:

no, from my link, we know death doesnt follow cases,

there is no correlation, try harder

Come on.  100% correlation.  You really need a better source for your news.

 

Absolutely stunning.

[scammed 1,765]

10 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Come on.  100% correlation.  You really need a better source for your news.

 

Absolutely stunning.

yeah, right 100% correlation, absolutely stunning

analysis right there

Edited October 31, 2020 by scammed

[Jeffr2 8,318]

Please, spend some time reading this.  Jeez.  Death rates are down, but still lag infections by a few weeks.  That's 100% proven. 

 

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/data-animation-shows-time-lag-between-covid-19-cases-and-deaths/

[rabas 5,358]

50 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Interesting, however I understand that coronaviruses as a group do not mutate much at all.  For the four coronaviruses that cause 30% of common colds, the infections produce no lasting immunity so that the victim just gets the same cold from the same virus the next year.  As we know no vaccine has ever been developed for any coronavirus including SARS and MERS.

"Immunology is where intuition goes to die..."

--- a famous immunologist

 

RNA corona viruses mutate somewhat slower than other (say influenza) RNA viruses but not a whole lot, from a paper from BMC Evolutionary Biology:

 

"The mutation rate in the SARS-CoV genome was estimated to be 0.80 – 2.38 × 10^-3 nucleotide substitution per site per year which is in the same order of magnitude as other RNA viruses ..."

 

My comparison was to the much slower DNA smallpox virus as an example of a stable vaccine, which still holds.. As to how well a SARS-2 vaccine will hold up to mutation, and other issues affecting immunization, I doubt anyone knows for sure. Your points are also possible factors, particularly the fading of immunity, which was not related to mutation.

 

My point was I don't think it will be a slam-dunk, but we will know in a a year or two.

[scammed 1,765]

47 minutes ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

I think we all get both sides of the argument and there is potentially some valid points on each. But if you were the actual decision maker you have to look at the facts and decide.

I can't see any reason, or conspiracy theory, as to why my Government in Australia, New Zealand or the French govt etc would lock down except that they've done the maths and worked out that the best overall outcome to save lives is to wear masks, social distance and to have some form of lockdown in major breakouts.

It's easy to be cynical of governments, but I am not an expert on this topic, and sometimes you have to accept that, and let others who are, decide. If someone can show me why a government would find a lockdown desirable, without resorting to unproven conspiracy theories, please let me know. 

A lockdown in extreme circumstances  is harsh but it is effective.

If simply separating the vulnerable would work they would do that. 

To just say that I want to be free to live my life, lets call it a Trump approach,  sounds nice but evidence suggests it leads to bad outcomes. Not sure if being free means that you are happy to wear masks and social distance.

Look at the Unites States today. Is this the outcome that is satisfactory to you. There are less deaths now, due to doctors learning how to deal with it, but still 1000 per day and rising. The above average deaths for 2020 are higher than the toll suggesting the figures are underreported. Then there are many with lingering side effects.

The vaccine is objectively not far away. Chill. Keep people safe and if cases get way out of hand lockdown for a while.

 

in case of data analysis, i am an expert by education and politicians are

amateurs. for what reason they resorted to group think,

that i am less sure about, powergrab/flawed group think/fear/worried about how to play for upcoming election/there is probably a whole lot of irrational thoughts they wouldnt even be able to define

[rabas 5,358]

11 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Please, spend some time reading this.  Jeez.  Death rates are down, but still lag infections by a few weeks.  That's 100% proven. 

 

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/data-animation-shows-time-lag-between-covid-19-cases-and-deaths/

Another important factor missed by scammed.

 

The second wave was initially caused by infections among restless young people who die less often, or at least not often enough it seems. Only later did it spread to the general population and to more vulnerable people. The caused an even longer delay from infections onset to mortality onset.

[Jeffr2 8,318]

38 minutes ago, scammed said:

in case of data analysis, i am an expert by education and politicians are

amateurs. for what reason they resorted to group think,

that i am less sure about, powergrab/flawed group think/fear/worried about how to play for upcoming election/there is probably a whole lot of irrational thoughts they wouldnt even be able to define

The better politicians follow the advice of the experts.  Sadly, that's not happening in some Western countries.

[ukrules 20,906]

On 10/16/2020 at 3:19 PM, allanos said:

As to influenza, seemingly, during the present virus pandemic, flu transmission numbers have dropped to almost un-measurable proportions.  It is counter-intuitive, to say the least. And why should this be?

The flu season hasn't started yet so that might be something to do with it

 

It's normally December to March but sometimes it starts as early as October - not this year though.

 

There's also something else worth considering which you may not be aware of, viruses compete against each other for control of the host and it's thought they prevent each other from infecting.......it's not known how or why they can do this but there's plenty of references to it if you dig deep enough into prior research - I suspect that therein lies a preventative cure for all colds and influenzas.

 

I regard COVID as a cold, it's nothing like a flu at the structural level.

[polpott 5,252]

1 minute ago, ukrules said:

The flu season hasn't started yet so that might be something to do with it

Also the fact that people are wearing masks and not attending superspreader events.

[ukrules 20,906]

2 minutes ago, polpott said:

Also the fact that people are wearing masks and not attending superspreader events.

You can't really look at flu numbers in the northern hemisphere until January to March in any year, unless it arrives unusually early.

[Jeffr2 8,318]

4 minutes ago, ukrules said:

The flu season hasn't started yet so that might be something to do with it

 

It's normally December to March but sometimes it starts as early as October - not this year though.

 

There's also something else worth considering which you may not be aware of, viruses compete against each other for control of the host and it's thought they prevent each other from infecting.......it's not known how or why they can do this but there's plenty of references to it if you dig deep enough into prior research - I suspect that therein lies a preventative cure for all colds and influenzas.

 

I regard COVID as a cold, it's nothing like a flu at the structural level.

Just heard of the first reported case of someone who got both the flu and CV19 at the same time.  Ugh.

[itsallmine68 136]

Patrick C

 

 Have you explained to a 5 year old why you are not wearing a mask? as compared to a Condom?