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COVID-19 is not going away soon or ever


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2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That would depend on how much it costs. Front line workers should get it free, but they may require others to pay, depending on country.

Free to everyone in the UK. Astra Zenica have agreed to supply it at cost to all countries whilst the pandemic lasts.

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Not like a regular flu at all. They want masks and distancing to be permanent. None of that happened for regular flu or any other diseases, far as I know. I'm happy to go back to life as pre coro

eventually, everyone will copy sweden and move on as it was a year ago, but its bitter and humiliating for politicians around the world to admit they committed high treason on their own coun

Not to mention that they have destroyed their countries' already fragile economies, that will need years to recover, if ever...

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2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

The actual numbers for the 1918 pandemic are unknown.  There wasn't enough testing and they still don't know enough about the original strain to understand everything.  And that virus is still with us today.

It's generally believed to be tens of millions of deaths. The virus has mutated to less virulence, besides that medical care has improved a lot since then. The 1918 virus has been reconstructed by excavating Eskimo graves where it was frozen.

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On 11/5/2020 at 12:48 AM, onebir said:

There is some fairly credible research suggesting that the herd immunity threshold for Covid could be as low as 20% of the population (due to variations in the probability of exposure & susceptibility). As for the US CFR, it's shockingly high for one of the richest countries in the world. But that's the average over the whole period: I'd hope it's come down a lot for recent case (eg because treatment is improving &/ more testing is being done).

 

Antibody data from a very specific group (eg dialysis patients, who presumably have been trying their best to avoid exposure) may not be very representative.

 

(This isn't intended as a justification for a 'let it rip' herd immunity approach, but there's a lack of nuance in the media.)

This research claiming a 20% threshold has been refuted, is no longer worth citing. Consider that an infected person can pass it on when they are not showing symptoms. If anything, a higher immunity threshold will be needed than 50% being suggested by some.

 

It is highly regrettable that the debate has been between shutdown or "let it rip". There is a middle ground.

 

The percent of the population found infected through testing is increasing to a high level in areas in the US which were largely unscathed before the Fall. As you probably know, the US response has been disjointed owing to the lack of a coordinated effort. We are about to have hospitals overwhelmed in more regions than in the Spring, and the inability to care for too many needing hospitalization will result in too many deaths that should have been avoidable. 

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3 hours ago, placnx said:

It is highly regrettable that the debate has been between shutdown or "let it rip". There is a middle ground.

There certainly should be. But in many places, implementing some kind of 'middle way' has been hampered by difficulty communicating/lack of public cooperation &/ failure of politicians etc to abide by rules.

 

Right wing commentators also seem to be using the situation to exacerbate distrust in government/civil society. Let's hope they haven't managed totally succeeded by the time it's really needed (eg asteroid heading Earth's way.)

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18 hours ago, onebir said:

There certainly should be. But in many places, implementing some kind of 'middle way' has been hampered by difficulty communicating/lack of public cooperation &/ failure of politicians etc to abide by rules.

 

Right wing commentators also seem to be using the situation to exacerbate distrust in government/civil society. Let's hope they haven't managed totally succeeded by the time it's really needed (eg asteroid heading Earth's way.)

Yes, I completely agree as to why the middle way in the US is failing so far. In Montana a hospital with 390 beds is reporting 167% occupancy in their ICU. In a state with low population density there is among the highest rates of infection in the US. Maybe they should go to church by Zoom and wear masks as much as possible. Perhaps in the future Fauci can speak freely, to educate the misinformed.

 

 

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The only way for the US to control Covid is to impose a national lockdown for eight to twelve weeks. Like China did in Wuhan (eight weeks) and Australia did in Melbourne (seven weeks.)  That is the only method that has been demonstrated to work once the virus has reached exponential growth as it now has in the US where it just went from 100,000 new cases per day to 150,000 new cases per day in a week.

 

But to do a lockdown in the US means that Congress would have to allocate trillions to compensate households, businesses, states, and localities.  Any funding bill has to pass both the House of Representatives and the Senate.  Moscow Mitch will never pass such a funding bill since his goal is for the Biden administration to fail in every respect.  Therefore the US will not control Covid.

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[quote]

But to do a lockdown in the US means that Congress would have to allocate trillions to compensate households, businesses, states, and localities.

[/quote]

 

Why?  Everyone is in this together and can't expect free $$$ just for staying at home.  Everyone should tighten their buckles, minimise spending etc.

 

I don't recall Laos throwing money around when we had our lockdown.  Those in poverty were provided with free meals by generous citizens - food is all you need at time of crisis...

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3 hours ago, cmarshall said:

The only way for the US to control Covid is to impose a national lockdown for eight to twelve weeks. Like China did in Wuhan (eight weeks) and Australia did in Melbourne (seven weeks.)  That is the only method that has been demonstrated to work once the virus has reached exponential growth as it now has in the US where it just went from 100,000 new cases per day to 150,000 new cases per day in a week.

 

But to do a lockdown in the US means that Congress would have to allocate trillions to compensate households, businesses, states, and localities.  Any funding bill has to pass both the House of Representatives and the Senate.  Moscow Mitch will never pass such a funding bill since his goal is for the Biden administration to fail in every respect.  Therefore the US will not control Covid.

The situation in the US is out of control. There will be deaths that should not have happened, this because ICUs will shortly be overwhelmed. We have to increase the messaging about social distancing and mask wearing. This will mitigate the situation. Some areas might benefit by lockdown, but it's not feasible to apply to the whole country, from and economic or political standpoint.

 

Let's hope that runoff elections in January put Mitch in the Senate minority. There will then be more hope that Covid can be overcome.

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