Health ministry, WHO decode Thailand’s successful COVID-19 response

[sandyf]

15 hours ago, Justgrazing said:

That was like the literary equivalent of eating a polystyrene sandwich .. 

bland and meaningless don't do it justice .. 

An' if in the eyes of clown jester health minister they are blowing smoke up his jacksie for perceived " success " why ain'tt he got a mask on .. 

You'd think this of all photo shoots would be the one where he wouldn't openly demonstrate cluelessness .. 

Strikes me that many on this forum have convinced themselves there is rampant infection in Thailand and hoping another lockdown will be reimposed before we all end up in hospital or the crematorium.

[nobodysfriend]

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

So far, I don't know anyone in Thailand who knows anyone who caught Covid. 

Pedro83 , a TV member , died of Covid . RIP

[fruitman]

Just now, nobodysfriend said:

Pedro83 , a TV member , died of Covid . RIP

It's rare to die from only covid19, most of them have several underlaying diseases..and most are older than 70, male, overweight..

[Logosone]

33 minutes ago, Gulfsailor said:

This is incorrect. Thailand has tested a lot of people without symptoms through its track and trace program early on in the limited outbreaks in Thailand. This is clearly indicated by the percentage of positivity, which in Thailand is very low. In short; because Thailand was so effective identifying and isolating cases early on, there is no need for widespread testing now. Why would you randomly test lots of healthy people when no outbreaks are occurring? 

This link explains why the positivity rate is the best indicator if a country is testing enough. As you can see, countries that have things under control all have a very low positivity rate. 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#the-positive-rate-a-crucial-metric-for-understanding-the-pandemic

 

 

No, you are completely incorrect. Thailand has not "tested a lot of people", with symptoms or otherwise.

 

In Thailand 98.6% of the population remain untested. testing 1.4% of the population is not testing "a lot of people".

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

Obviously the percentage of positivity is low in Thailand because there are very few tests being done.

 

There is no need for widespread testing as a virus ravages the globe? In what alternative universe would this be? The very basic information of the true number of infected is key data for policy. Thailand failed even at this initial hurdle.

 

Thailand does not "have things under control", the virus has just not exploded in the country as it has in other places, however excess deaths shows 2800 to 8200 people have died, most undoubtedly from the virus. Therefore the death figures in Thailand are no better than in other similar sized countries that were not badly affected. And of course the second wave could still be much worse in Thailand because Thailand, unlike other countries has isolated itself largely from others and thus the population could be more susceptible to the second wave of the virus.

Edited October 16, 2020 by Logosone

[sandyf]

36 minutes ago, VBF said:

On the other hand, my friend's 95 year old mother died in a Nursing Home in UK. She had Alzheimer's and sadly was on her "last legs" before CV. BUT...... because she was infected with CV, THAT was what went on her death certificate, whereas if she had died last year, it would have been recorded as "old age"

Lies, dammed lies and statistics!

What goes on the death certificate can be a bit academic, it is fairly common for there to be multiple entries that led to death. The information as a death statistic is unreliable but the information does help it identify the level of infection within the care home environment.

When it comes to deaths the only statistic that means anything is the excess deaths over and above the average. The excess has mainly been attributed to covid related but also includes those that died through lack of adequate treatment due to the pandemic. Back in April the total deaths were more than double the average and since end of May came back in line. However figures are starting to separate again and the latest week shows a rise of 2.7% above average.

Unfortunately here in Thailand a similar comparison cannot be made due high percentage of road deaths in the country. The pandemic reduced that figure to such an extent that total deaths are just below average, could be said that nobody died due to the pandemic.

[Derek B]

2 hours ago, vandeventer said:

WHO sounds like they are disparate for money ever since the USA pulled it's money out because of it's close links to the CCP. Little do the know Thailand is broke! So go find a rich country that will believe all your BS.

There is a lengthy time frame for the withdrawal of financial support to the WHO which has not yet been reached - I believe.

 

[cdemundo]

2 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

May be you read before you write ...?

 

The mutated G strain which is prevalent in the United States and Europe, is more contagious than the S strain, said Dr. Yong Poovorawan, medical professor at the Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University. "Thailand identified the S strain when COVID-19 pandemic first started in the country, however the doctors have now discovered a more dangerous strain amongst Thai returnees. They are the mutated G strain which still is prevalent in the United States and Europe."

...that should Thailand experience a second wave of infections, the G strain virus, or G614, will be dominant, because it is about 10 times more contagious than the S strain originally identified in Asia."

 

Not the right time to open the borders .

This is from a publication from American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) about the G variant of COVID-19

 

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/cp-htp070220.php

 

How that preprint about a 'more contagious strain' of coronavirus changed in peer review…

“The Korber et al. paper has changed pretty considerably from what I saw in their preprint," says Nathan Grubaugh, a virologist at the Yale School of Public Health not affiliated with Korber's team and the lead author of a Preview contextualizing the paper, also published in Cell. "The in vitro data strengthened the clinical findings, both of which suggest that viruses containing the D614G mutation may be able to replicate to higher levels in human cells. But what we cannot say is that it is more transmissible or leads to more severe disease. Essentially, we don't know if this has had any meaningful impact on the COVID-19 pandemic."

 

So one expert says 10 times more contagious, others say "we don't know".

Not simple, whoda thunk it.

 

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, Curt1591 said:

The key to Thailand's great numbers is that Thailand doesn't test everything that moves; beyond new arrivals, Thailand only tests sick people. 

If Thailand was to test everyone, I would give odds that the "positives" numbers would be in the hundreds of thousands. 

The UK, a population of similar size to Thailand, has had this year more than 60,000 deaths over and above the 5 year average.

How many deaths has Thailand had over and above the 5 year average?

[Derek B]

1 hour ago, Curt1591 said:

The key to Thailand's great numbers is that Thailand doesn't test everything that moves; beyond new arrivals, Thailand only tests sick people. 

If Thailand was to test everyone, I would give odds that the "positives" numbers would be in the hundreds of thousands. 

To do that an accurate test would be required and the PCR appears not to be fit for the purpose of detecting conclusively COVID-19.

[RPCVguy]

18 minutes ago, fruitman said:

It's rare to die from only covid19, most of them have several underlaying diseases..and most are older than 70, male, overweight..

NOBODY dies "only from Covid-19." There are organ failures that the disease causes, and there are comorbidity factors that are made critical midst the complications that COVID-19 causes. Death certificates that list COVID-19 at the top are filed incorrectly.

COVID 19 Update Update 106: Comorbidities and Excess Deaths; Bradykinin and Coronavirus

Image from the Medcram video

[Derek B]

1 hour ago, Tarteso said:

Last September, the wife's grandfather passed away due to respiratory problems in a matter of minutes and in our presence.  An ambulance took him to the Clinic close to Chiang Mai. The doctors argued to the family that if they wanted an autopsy they would have to take the body to another hospital.  The family refused.....

 

 No tested, No Covid. ?

Were the clinic Doctors wearing full PPE I wonder?

[Rimmer]

Conspiracy troll post pushing pseudoscience links also replies removed.

[jerolamo]

Robust nothing at all. You do not test enough to talk about that.

Open the gate, recognize foreigner who never failed with the law and give democracy to your population if you want to do something good. It is boring from long time now, we want to see our family.

[Derek B]

1 hour ago, VBF said:

On the other hand, my friend's 95 year old mother died in a Nursing Home in UK. She had Alzheimer's and sadly was on her "last legs" before CV. BUT...... because she was infected with CV, THAT was what went on her death certificate, whereas if she had died last year, it would have been recorded as "old age"

Lies, dammed lies and statistics!

Nursing Home deaths is a tough one re CV (I lost both parents before CV whilst in a home in the UK both 90+ with quality of life long gone) ...............

All I would say is without contacting CV she might have made it to 96 or more so in my book CV is the correct reason for her passing however if it was a common cold or seasonal flu she had contracted I wonder what the death certificate would state.

[Misterwhisper]

Mr. Anutin, may I suggest you begin with "decoding" something easier first. Like this, for example...

 

Edited October 16, 2020 by Misterwhisper

[Tarteso]

19 minutes ago, Derek B said:

Were the clinic Doctors wearing full PPE I wonder?

There are 4 levels of PPE, perhaps we can find a full PPE at privates and overpriced Hospitals. But according Anutin; The Minister of Public Health said Thailand is the first country to join IAR, which indicates the country’s robust public health system, inclusive availability of health resources, swift management at hospitals, and the preparedness of local disease investigation teams as key factors in the country’s successful COVID-19 response”.  Believe him ????

 

 

Edited October 16, 2020 by Tarteso

[connda]

16 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Nice headline but the article doesn't mention that no testing is the best way to keep infection numbers low in Thailand.You can't decode information if there is no information to decode.

And you have in fact "Decoded" the actual reason for Thailand's low infection rate.  Occam's Razor - the simplest explanation is the most plausible. . 
So, if countries around the world would simply stop testing?  The "pandemic" would be over and relegated to the annuals of seasonal flu.

[tomauasia]

WHO are corrupt and support China..Thailand are all lies numbers all false. This is fake news lol

[tomauasia]

7 minutes ago, connda said:

And you have in fact "Decoded" the actual reason for Thailand's low infection rate.  Occam's Razor - the simplest explanation is the most plausible. . 
So, if countries around the world would simply stop testing?  The "pandemic" would be over and relegated to the annuals of seasonal flu.

Thailand all lies

[owl sees all]

3 hours ago, Dialemco said:

What a lot of nonsense WHO advised against wearing masks and did not disclose the existence of the viras until it was to late. Thailand may have been lucky reporting low infection rates but not so lucky with the decimation of its economy and mass unemployment 

The WHO, along with the WTO, along with the IMF (and others) are well past their sell-by dates. They have long been compromised by big phama, big business, banking and general wealthy undesirables.

[Mywayboy]

Well well welll if if you conduct minimal Covid 19 testing you are sure too have minimal Covid 19 cases.

[FarFlungFalang]

26 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

The WHO, along with the WTO, along with the IMF (and others) are well past their sell-by dates. They have long been compromised by big phama, big business, banking and general wealthy undesirables.

I think they were actually set up by those you mentioned to help try and legitimise their businesses. 

Edited October 16, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[Hockeybik]

4 hours ago, Dukeleto said:

I had said it quite a few times and I’ll repeat myself again. No testing for Covid-19 = No Covid-19 infections. It’s an incredibly simple equation. Without this data to prove Thailand actually controlled the virus or simply swept it under the carpet by not carrying out widespread public testing which has been done in first world countries which subsequently had very high cases and continue to do so...because they keep testing. With Thailand’s apparent lack of experience in treating the virus I personally would prefer not to be infected in Thailand and rather somewhere else where doctors have become experts in treating this disease as is evidenced by the massive drop in the death rate for people infected compared with the early stages of the pandemic at the beginning of the year. This crucial step in learning about and treating the virus has been lost by Thailand due to their inability to provide widespread testing or their desire not to provide it. What would be interesting for me is if deaths due to respiratory illness has increased this year In Thailand from a year on year perspective. Again it’s entirely possible that data too has been misrepresented or simply filed under unknown or natural causes due to the age of the patient. In any case as with everything in the land of nod you are unlikely to find the truth.

OK, so I agree with you that low test numbers will equal low infection numbers. So what? The important numbers are the numbers of severe cases requiring hospitalization and the number of deaths. Both of which are very low in Thailand. Thailand has been either fantastically good or fantastically lucky at keeping the numbers of both severe cases and deaths low. 

 

Please tell me what I'm missing. Why is it so important to know how many asymptomatic and minimal symptom cases there are? And if we know, how does that help the people deal with it? If the virus has been rampant in Thailand the last few months and the testing for it has been minimal, why aren't there more deaths and hospitalizations for it? 

[owl sees all]

12 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I think they were actually set up by those you mentioned to help try and legitimise their businesses. 

You can cut the mustard any time FFF; even with a blunt knife.

 

When all these wonderful organisations are set up, their selling points are always; "It will help the smaller countries. be competitive and gain a foothold in the world."

 

How does it go now?

 

An idea, 

becomes a plan,

becomes a scheme,

becomes a business,

becomes a corporation,

corruption sets in,

greed is 'king'

gradually becomes a scam.

Edited October 16, 2020 by owl sees all

[Virt]

One interesting news from yesterday, was that people with blood-type O theoretically had about 33% less chance to get covid 19, and it would be subject to more studies why that is so. 

 

Since the majority of Thais are blood-type O, combined with other factors like high UV ratings and closing their borders could explain their success. 

 

I don't believe their official numbers but I do believe that Thailand seems to have gone through this without to many dying from it and without crashing their Healthcare system. 

 

But that success could be also be a double egded sword, if it shows that most Thais had no anti bodies due to low spread of covid 19, and if they initially had a hidden first wave in Jan, feb, March most will not carry those anti bodies anymore. 

 

They could end up beeing a victim to their own success. 

 

[Pancho]

Yesterday the CDC ( center for disease control- USA ) stated an update saying “ the masks were never intended to protect the wearer, only to inhibit transmission from an infected person “.

 

So it may seem as the whole thing is now over, one could take the case to any democratic republic, under maritime law, test, and win a case to eliminate masks & social distancing.

BOOM!????????????????????

[wimpy]

I understand the comments about lack of testing here.  That doesn't explain the lack of patients and deaths. I frequent two hospitals regularly. One in Chiang Mai and one in Lampang. On friendly terms with the nurses. They tell me they have had zero cases since this began. I do not know of anyone here that has contracted covid or had covid like symptoms. This is not the case for my friends in the USA. I really can't figure it out. With all the foreigners that were here in the early part of the year, the lack of seriously sick patients and deaths here is really incredible.

[chilly07]

Have to say that the level of debate on covid-19 on TV is so extraordinarily high that we should take over the functions of the WHO! The level of excess deaths is the clincher for me as it includes all road deaths despite several additional public holidays which is in the thousands compared to hundreds of thousands around the world. In the UK 30pc of their overall 50k covid deaths occurred in nursing homes because the bozo government turfed elders out of hospitals without testing. Elders who are most at risk in Thailand are not treated in this appalling manner

[sezze]

5 minutes ago, wimpy said:

I understand the comments about lack of testing here.  That doesn't explain the lack of patients and deaths. I frequent two hospitals regularly. One in Chiang Mai and one in Lampang. On friendly terms with the nurses. They tell me they have had zero cases since this began. I do not know of anyone here that has contracted covid or had covid like symptoms. This is not the case for my friends in the USA. I really can't figure it out. With all the foreigners that were here in the early part of the year, the lack of seriously sick patients and deaths here is really incredible.

I also mentioned this already multiple times . Staying in a country heavily hit ( Belgium ) and currently in full swing of 2nd/3th wave hospitals are starting to run full again . Non medical emergencies at multiple hospitals are halted already . Positive numbers don't mean a thing , nobody cares if half the population at the same time got a running nose or a slight cough . The problem is the healthcare system does get overrun by patient who do get much worse infection .

I did not believe Thailands numbers in the beginning and thinking , oh they not test and they can keep the numbers under the radar .However once i knew how it was over here , and i heard nobody on this forum or anywhere else about these things in Thailand , then i just have to believe that they are correct . There are still many non believers or flat earthers here who think this is all a scam , because they not seen or witnessed the savage outcome but i can assure that it isn't something to laugh with and it does exist and can hit extremely hard .

[Logosone]

42 minutes ago, wimpy said:

I understand the comments about lack of testing here.  That doesn't explain the lack of patients and deaths. I frequent two hospitals regularly. One in Chiang Mai and one in Lampang. On friendly terms with the nurses. They tell me they have had zero cases since this began. I do not know of anyone here that has contracted covid or had covid like symptoms. This is not the case for my friends in the USA. I really can't figure it out. With all the foreigners that were here in the early part of the year, the lack of seriously sick patients and deaths here is really incredible.

Not incredible at all. The death rate for this virus is very low, 0.66% or 0.27% on average, depending who you listen to, but not the 3% that was talked about before. The hospitalisation rate is very low. So in a country where only 2800 to 8200 people have died of the virus, the excess death figure for Thailand, it's not all incredible that hospitalisation figures for Covid19 are low.

 

Moreover, who would want to go to a hospital now? Everyone would avoid it because they'd be afraid they'd be put in forcible quarantine if they have the virus. So most people would avoid hospital.

 

It's of course completely false to say there is a lack of deaths from Covid-19 in Thailand since we know excess deaths are in the 2800-8200 range, which is in line with most other countries of similar size where the virus has not had disproportionate impact.

 

There is no lack of deaths. The deaths simply could not be officially attributed to Covid-19 because testing was not done to a meaningful scale. However, with excess deaths of 2800 to 8200 it's clear there is no "lack of deaths". It's just not properly designated.

Edited October 16, 2020 by Logosone