Health ministry, WHO decode Thailand’s successful COVID-19 response

[wimpy]

Nonsense. When you can't breathe, you to the hospital. In my home country, hospitals are nearing capacity yet again. That has never been the case here. Very odd that there has been only one case in my province, and so few in other provinces.

[Naturesway]

But when I turned back from Thailand in Europe Thailand was rated in red category as well and I was put in 2 weeks quarantine. So what’s the point of all this rating nonsense going around the world news, yesterday your country is the most critical but tomorrow you are in green already and free to go in and out. I feel so fed up of this business/politics economy fooling  

[grumpy 4680]

           With Thailand's close connections to China, It must be some sort of miracle that only 59 deaths were ever reported, yet the rest of S.E Asia has been decimated by the Virus. Trust in the WHO has been savaged by its lack of truth's, So maybe it's just the reports of high rates of Dengue that have been Thailand saviour.

[VBF]

4 hours ago, Derek B said:

Nursing Home deaths is a tough one re CV (I lost both parents before CV whilst in a home in the UK both 90+ with quality of life long gone) ...............

All I would say is without contacting CV she might have made it to 96 or more so in my book CV is the correct reason for her passing however if it was a common cold or seasonal flu she had contracted I wonder what the death certificate would state.

Both you and @sandyf responded to my post, and both of you seem to reinforce my point that Death Certs, particularly those of older people are not a reliable gauge of CV spread - merely an approximate indicator.

However, my main point was that these figures are being used by government as if they were reliable.

[VBF]

3 hours ago, Hockeybik said:

OK, so I agree with you that low test numbers will equal low infection numbers. So what? The important numbers are the numbers of severe cases requiring hospitalization and the number of deaths. Both of which are very low in Thailand. Thailand has been either fantastically good or fantastically lucky at keeping the numbers of both severe cases and deaths low. 

 

Please tell me what I'm missing. Why is it so important to know how many asymptomatic and minimal symptom cases there are? And if we know, how does that help the people deal with it? If the virus has been rampant in Thailand the last few months and the testing for it has been minimal, why aren't there more deaths and hospitalizations for it? 

Spot on!!!  ????

 

Here in UK, they are referring to people testing positive as "cases"

The vast majority of these "cases" didn't even know they were "cases" until they were tested - if the test had not been carried out, the vast majority would never have known.

Why, it could be any of us!

 

IMO, they are not "cases" unless / until they actually get sick of CV (ie "severe cases" and require medication or further treatment.

I think that the so called "cases" should be described as test attendees, with the word "cases" reserved for the unfortunate few who get sick (and for whom I do actually have sympathy)

 

THAT would lower the hysteria brought on by what is not, for most, a serious condition.

Edited October 16, 2020 by VBF

[sambum]

21 hours ago, Justgrazing said:

That was like the literary equivalent of eating a polystyrene sandwich .. 

bland and meaningless don't do it justice .. 

An' if in the eyes of clown jester health minister they are blowing smoke up his jacksie for perceived " success " why ain'tt he got a mask on .. 

You'd think this of all photo shoots would be the one where he wouldn't openly demonstrate cluelessness .. 

"why ain't he got a mask on":-

 

"A month prior to his March outburst, in February 2020, Anutin was criticised for remarking that foreigners should be kicked out of Thailand when he saw some who were not wearing face masks at an event at the Siam BTS station in Bangkok.^[17] Later, hearing advice from the US Surgeon General, Dr Jerome Adams, that the wearing of masks was unnecessary for the uninfected, Anutin changed his opinion".

 

Again? 'Nuff said!

 

 

[Curt1591]

5 hours ago, sandyf said:

The UK, a population of similar size to Thailand, has had this year more than 60,000 deaths over and above the 5 year average.

How many deaths has Thailand had over and above the 5 year average?

But then there is the scary USA:

[sambum]

6 hours ago, Derek B said:

No only that he dressed down for the occasion it seems.

If Anutin caught Covid-19 hed would probably say it was "like a blessing from Buddha"
(" Catching COVID-19 Was A "Blessing From God", Says Trump")

 

There are similarities between Anutin and Trump - namely their inane comments!

[owl sees all]

5 hours ago, sandyf said:

The UK, a population of similar size to Thailand, has had this year more than 60,000 deaths over and above the 5 year average.

How many deaths has Thailand had over and above the 5 year average?

I dispute those figures. This is simply not what I am researching.

[teacherclaire]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

99% of the Thai population was not tested for the virus.

 

Great success for Thailand, low infection figures, low death figures.

 

If you don't know if someone has Covid, his death can't be attributed to Covid.

 

Also, Eritrea, Botswana, Burundi and Tanzania have these fantastic low death figures. I will await their explanation for this miracle also.

 

What could be the magical reason? Not testing 99% of the population as well, maybe? Such a mystery.

Also, Eritrea, Botswana, Burundi and Tanzania have these fantastic low death figures. I will await their explanation for this miracle also.

 

If nobody goes there, there's nothing, Not even money. 

[ronaldo0]

Can’t find something you don’t test for ! 
Wife’s father has been in and out of three hospitals in last two weeks and every one was packed . He had high temperature etc and I asked if when he arrived was he tested for Covid or asked about it . She said he wasn’t and she didn’t see or hear of one person in the hospital getting tested or even mention it . 
Odd in the photo the WHO guy is sitting with his mask on and the other genius isn’t ! ????

[yimlitnoy]

23 hours ago, Justgrazing said:

That was like the literary equivalent of eating a polystyrene sandwich .. 

bland and meaningless don't do it justice .. 

An' if in the eyes of clown jester health minister they are blowing smoke up his jacksie for perceived " success " why ain'tt he got a mask on .. 

You'd think this of all photo shoots would be the one where he wouldn't openly demonstrate cluelessness .. 

Exactly like Radio Thailand, totally incomprehensible, meaningless, intellectual hogwash, after reading this article I felt I learned nothing.  What did Thailand do to achieve such a success fighting Covid-19?  Nothing here has been decoded.

Edited October 16, 2020 by yimlitnoy

[lkv]

6 hours ago, wimpy said:

One in Chiang Mai and one in Lampang. On friendly terms with the nurses. They tell me they have had zero cases since this began.

Of course. They only had cases of viral pneumonia or of "just flu", they told the patients to go back home, take some paracetamol.

 

There is no covid in Thailand, only imported from overseas, so it could not have been covid. ✌????

 

The count abruptly stopped at 3K, just about when the count in China also abruptly stopped at 80K.

 

One can look at the charts and compare to most countries on this planet, they look silly.

Edited October 16, 2020 by lkv

[SunsetT]

On 10/15/2020 at 11:41 AM, snoop1130 said:

WHO’s recommendations.

...What about testing?

[woogoo]

15 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Either that or they didn't do much testing making sure it was out of reach for the average citizen.Their public health measures were not much different to other countries.

Exactly. What did Thailand do? They had a lockdown for a few months then slowly allowed some businesses to open up. Excalty the same as all of the countries currently reporting high case numbers. The only thing different is the mass testing going on in these other countries.

 

As to the people claiming "where are the bodies" here in Thailand. It wouldn't be too hard to write off three or four extra deaths each month at the hospitals around the country. 

[sezze]

1 hour ago, woogoo said:

Exactly. What did Thailand do? They had a lockdown for a few months then slowly allowed some businesses to open up. Excalty the same as all of the countries currently reporting high case numbers. The only thing different is the mass testing going on in these other countries.

 

As to the people claiming "where are the bodies" here in Thailand. It wouldn't be too hard to write off three or four extra deaths each month at the hospitals around the country. 

Thailand had a soft lockdown , as far as i heard and read over here . But i can agree , that on many degrees , it is more or less on lvl like in other countries .

What you fail is , you think that the deaths are the only thing . For every death person there are like 50 to 100 which need urgent medical care , ICU , ventilators and long time aftercare ( 1 day ICU takes 1 month revalidation ) . Saying the 3-4 deaths you can sweep away ... true to a certain degree , but you cannot sweep the 100's away which needed hospital care also . And we aren't talking about 3-4 deaths , because that still means you have dodged the bullet . A country like Thailand , with the amount of people staying there , we would have seen roughly the same figures like Germany / France / UK with 10000 to 40000 deaths , figure out yourself how many people needed hospital care . And nobody heard something about hospitals full , a few deaths in the same families , and this with widespread family ties in Thailand ..... ?

[Hockeybik]

9 hours ago, woogoo said:

As to the people claiming "where are the bodies" here in Thailand. It wouldn't be too hard to write off three or four extra deaths each month at the hospitals around the country. 

There are over 1,000 hospitals in Thailand so "three or four extra deaths each month" would be a significant number. Is there evidence to show that there has been an increase in deaths by all causes since the beginning of the year? 

[Hockeybik]

17 hours ago, grumpy 4680 said:

           With Thailand's close connections to China, It must be some sort of miracle that only 59 deaths were ever reported, yet the rest of S.E Asia has been decimated by the Virus. Trust in the WHO has been savaged by its lack of truth's, So maybe it's just the reports of high rates of Dengue that have been Thailand saviour.

What do you think the *real* numbers are? 

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, VBF said:

Both you and @sandyf responded to my post, and both of you seem to reinforce my point that Death Certs, particularly those of older people are not a reliable gauge of CV spread - merely an approximate indicator.

However, my main point was that these figures are being used by government as if they were reliable.

Nothing new there, the government will always use a figure that supports their view, particularly when making comparisons with others using a different benchmark.

Some analysts do however do address the different approaches to measurement and the more reliable indicators.

You are right about death certificates, but there is nothing new in that. My mother died in 1976, aged 49, from a bleed on the brain brought about by another condition, both on the death certificate.

[sandyf]

9 hours ago, woogoo said:

As to the people claiming "where are the bodies" here in Thailand. It wouldn't be too hard to write off three or four extra deaths each month at the hospitals around the country. 

So you think the total deaths this year compared to the long term average wouldn't be affected.

 

BTW. my niece works in a hospital in Bangkok, she had to isolate end of March when some of the staff became infected. Her hospital has had very few cases and no deaths.

[woogoo]

35 minutes ago, Hockeybik said:

There are over 1,000 hospitals in Thailand so "three or four extra deaths each month" would be a significant number. Is there evidence to show that there has been an increase in deaths by all causes since the beginning of the year? 

There have been articles published on extra deaths (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046) but three or four extra deaths wouldn't be that much extra if you work on the fact that most deaths would likely be occuring in a handful of populated cities.

 

It's not as if every single hospital would have three or four extra deaths each month. And there also wouldn't just be "extra deaths". It's not like they just stuff bodies wherever they want. They would obviously be classified as deaths from other causes. 

 

I've said it before but this is a country that has messed up almost every major project attempted either through corruption or incompetence or a mixture of both and somehow they managed to do better at containing a virus than every other country in the world? Highly unlikely. 

[woogoo]

8 hours ago, sezze said:

Thailand had a soft lockdown , as far as i heard and read over here . But i can agree , that on many degrees , it is more or less on lvl like in other countries .

What you fail is , you think that the deaths are the only thing . For every death person there are like 50 to 100 which need urgent medical care , ICU , ventilators and long time aftercare ( 1 day ICU takes 1 month revalidation ) . Saying the 3-4 deaths you can sweep away ... true to a certain degree , but you cannot sweep the 100's away which needed hospital care also . And we aren't talking about 3-4 deaths , because that still means you have dodged the bullet . A country like Thailand , with the amount of people staying there , we would have seen roughly the same figures like Germany / France / UK with 10000 to 40000 deaths , figure out yourself how many people needed hospital care . And nobody heard something about hospitals full , a few deaths in the same families , and this with widespread family ties in Thailand ..... ?

No, you don't have hundreds of people that need urgent medical care. That has been debunked thorughout this whole <deleted> show. There were a small handful of hospitals over run with mostly elderly patients but for the most part all of the extra beds have remained empty.

 

What you do have is over 50% of people who don't even know they have symptoms. Hardly the plague. Thailand had the best response out of any country, ignore things and hope they go away. That is the typical Thai response to things and for once it actually worked in their favor. Unfortunately now they are caught up in the hype and trying to pretend like they actually did something revolutionary. 

[Xaos]

Its PCR tests casedemic. In UK Boris talks about isolating asymptomatics aka healthy. He had it himself apparently and look he is perfectly fine. 

 

Inventor of PCR says its not for detecting infections. With pcr u can control positives depending on number of cycles u go through in lab. Its a sham

 

 

[Magenta408]

This is rather comical. Dr.Dan has a huge diaper over his mouth almost concealing his bald head and Mr. Anutin is there, cool as a cucumber taking in the accolades. What does this not tell you? I guess CDC and WHO about the dangers of wearing diapers over your chin was true.

[sandyf]

6 hours ago, woogoo said:

I've said it before but this is a country that has messed up almost every major project attempted either through corruption or incompetence or a mixture of both and somehow they managed to do better at containing a virus than every other country in the world? Highly unlikely. 

As usual a narrow minded perspective. I was here during the SARS outbreak and Thailand contained that very well.

Remind me, how many countries suspended all scheduled flights? Of course you are free to believe that has nothing to do with containment.

[woogoo]

Just now, sandyf said:

As usual a narrow minded perspective. I was here during the SARS outbreak and Thailand contained that very well.

Remind me, how many countries suspended all scheduled flights? Of course you are free to believe that has nothing to do with containment.

Scheduled flights don't matter when borders are as porous as a sponge. There seems to be a pattern here of viruses not affecting this part of the world all that bad. Almost as if this isn't the right environment for viruses to thrive in. More like an environment condusive to bacterial infections but not viruses. 

[sandyf]

5 minutes ago, woogoo said:

Scheduled flights don't matter when borders are as porous as a sponge.

So the 40 million that came last year are now sneaking through the borders, says it all.

[lkv]

8 minutes ago, sandyf said:

So the 40 million that came last year are now sneaking through the borders, says it all.

No, but part of the 3 million migrant workers are freely circulating with bribes through land borders.

[Albert Zweistein]

Fake news !

[Albert Zweistein]

On 10/16/2020 at 2:23 AM, nobodysfriend said:

I think that a good part of Thailand's ' success ' in the fight against Covid is due to the fact that the strain of the virus that was , and probably still is , present here is much less contagious than the strain present in Europe and the Americas . The humid climate in Thailand might have helped a lot as well ...

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73554-7

 

" Several SARS-CoV-2 gene mutations have been reported. In the current study associations between SARS-CoV-2 gene variation and exposure history during the first wave of the outbreak in Thailand between January and May 2020 were investigated. '

" The phylogenetics of the 40 samples were clustered into L, GH, GR, O and T types. T types were predominant in Bangkok during the first local outbreak centered at a boxing stadium and entertainment venues in March 2020. Imported cases were infected with various types, including L, GH, GR and O. In southern Thailand introductions of different genotypes were identified at different times."

 

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-07/13/c_139209806.htm

 

"BANGKOK, July 13 (Xinhua) -- Thailand's top virologist on Monday warned that the COVID-19 mutated G strain, found amongst Thai returnees from abroad, is highly contagious .

The mutated G strain which is prevalent in the United States and Europe, is more contagious than the S strain, said Dr. Yong Poovorawan, medical professor at the Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University. "Thailand identified the S strain when COVID-19 pandemic first started in the country, however the doctors have now discovered a more dangerous strain amongst Thai returnees. They are the mutated G strain which still is prevalent in the United States and Europe."

Yong, who is part of the COVID-19 leading team under the Ministry of Health, said that should Thailand experience a second wave of infections, the G strain virus, or G614, will be dominant, because it is about 10 times more contagious than the S strain originally identified in Asia."

 

 

The conclusion is , that Thailand was just lucky , but did some right steps to prevent the spread of the virus at the right time , too .

 

It would be stupid to risk this success now by opening the borders to welcome foreign tourists now .

What about the

 

On 10/16/2020 at 3:05 AM, cmarshall said:

So, the research paper is internally inconsistent.  Also, even if the G strain from the US is more contagious than the S strain from China, the S strain was nevertheless sufficiently contagious to infect first Wuhan and then Hubei Province and yet Thailand did not experience a Wuhan-style outbreak.

 

It is certainly not in my own interest for Thailand to open its borders, but the loss of jobs and income is severe.  Also, if Sars-Cov2 becomes endemic then societies will have to find a way to live with it, with or without a vaccine.  

What about the humid climate in Philippines/Indonisia ?