Bangkok housing glut: Nearly a trillion baht of empty properties - govt urged to extend stimulus measures

[Airalee]

9 minutes ago, AlfHuy said:

Close to me, a new apartment building almost finished was advertised at 150,000 baht/m2 now massive sign saying, reduced to 99,000/m2

 

You’re not getting a high floor at Siamese Sukhumvit for that price. (That’s the only massive sign I have seen for that 150,000 reduced to 99,000/m2.)  You might get something on a low floor looking into the diamond condo for that price.  If you can get me a high floor (30+) 1br corner unit with a view towards the port/downtown for that price please let me know and a I will buy it myself.  
 

I do agree that many developers are overpriced especially when you look at the glut of ฿3-400,000 per square meter condos saturating Thonglor and Chidlom areas.  Who on earth would pay ฿15-20 million for a sub 50 sq meter 1br?  
 

Depending on the unit, view etc, (I have not seen Newnatives unit nor do I even know what building it is in so I cannot comment but I know he’s a picky shopper and he did say he’s on the 37th floor) 115k psm can be a hell of a bargain.  
 

Rents are definitely down as you say and it is a good time to bounce to a better deal if your contract is up for renewal.  I wouldn’t count on those rents staying low forever but I don’t see them bouncing up within the next couple years either.  My friend (former landlord) owns 13 condos in Phra Khanong and every one is rented.  He is proactive with his pricing, (accepts that rents are down) and has excellent relationships with agents and pays the full 1 month commission whereas many landlords, now that rents are down are wanting to offer much lower commissions.  Those units will sit empty.  Hopefully rents won’t take off like they did in Seattle or Los Angeles after the popped bubble was re-inflated.

 

Personally, even as a recent purchaser myself, I am not a cheerleader for RE and think that rising prices are a bad thing for society in general.  The only people who benefit from rising values are developers, banks (via loans) and people who own multiple investment properties (and buy and sell at the right time).  Let the values/prices meet what the market is willing (and able, without toxic mortgages for Thais) to pay.  
 

Right now IMHO, condos are very overpriced in general, but the deals are out there if you are diligent.  There will be no bell rung signifying the “bottom” and even at “bottom” two people could by two similar units on the same day where one got a “good deal” and the other “overpaid”

[connda]

7 hours ago, timendres said:

 

I believe the poster was implying the exact opposite of that -- that the property sellers themselves need to adjust their prices to reflect current market conditions. Personally, I cannot imagine paying the prices being asked for those concrete boxes. And there is no question that the prices are beyond the means of most Thai buyers.

Eventually the wheels come off the economic buggy.  When it happens, people go underwater on their loans or if they purchase with cash, they end up sitting on asset losses.  As much as we are told asset prices must go up, up, up - bubbles eventually pop, people take losses, and economic system gets reset to something that average people can participate in.  Right now the system is set to make the wealthy wealthier and improvise everyone else. 

[connda]

16 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

WOW !

If these developers default with the banks there will be a Major issue for the Country to contend with.

This 1 Trillion Baht, of empty properties is only for Bangkok and surrounding provinces.

It beggars the question " What is the figure for the Nation wide empty properties and the addition of Commercial properties and Installations "

Mind Boggling

When the bubble pops, those sitting on cash will be the new wealthy.  And normal commoners sitting on cash will be able to afford real estate that they can now only dream of owning.

[The Theory]

On 10/22/2020 at 9:20 AM, webfact said:

there are 185,993 empty condos and houses

These numbers will be up next year. 

[AlfHuy]

What's about LTV?

Banks have financed at 100%

Now, prices are dropping.

Are banks here in Thailand appraising properties again and adjust their LTV?

Some could wake up to a nightmare.

[ncc1701d]

Banks and developers are going to be doing everything in their power to keep prices from falling. the government also knows that a property collapse could be catastrophic to the economy. Some banks could fail. Massive domino effect. So there's many powerful entities behind the scenes doing their utmost to keep the price inflated. I'm sure there are many with very sharp pencils working out the break even point on all of that.

[newnative]

1 hour ago, AlfHuy said:

That is 115,000 baht per m2

Wow.

 

Close to me, a new apartment building almost finished was advertised at 150,000 baht/m2 now massive sign saying, reduced to 99,000/m2

 

Others are already down to mid 80,000/m2

 

Soon, others will follow.

If new build condos are not shifting at +80,000/m2, how are others justifying +100,000:m2

 

The ball is just starting to roll.

 

Rent prices are dropping massively. Just ask. Landlord doesn't want to lower, move. There are plenty of empty condos and landlords desperate to get someone in to pay their mortgage.

 

Renters market, for sure.

       Yes, 115,000 baht a sqm.  Average price in the project is 139,000 baht.   Across the street, at The  Esse at Singh Complex, the price per sqm on Hipflat is 286,000 baht per sqm.  It's newer, slightly closer to the MRT, and has some amenities my project doesn't have.  I think it has a boxing ring but I don't box.  Is it worth 286,000 baht a sqm?  For some, yes.  For me, no.  Was my condo worth 115,000 baht a sqm for me?  Yes.  For others, maybe not.  It really only matters if the price and the particular condo works for me, my budget, my wants and needs, not someone else's.

       One can quote condo deals and condo prices till the cows come home. "I just saw a condo advertised for ___________ baht!  Yes, but where was it?   High or low floor?  Oceanfront?  Knockout city view?  Near public transportation?  Building age?  Building condition?  Building financials? Building amenities? Parking ratio to number of units?  Good or bad condo floorplan? Foreign quota?  Number of units in the project?  Number of identical units?  Project condition?  Unit condition?  Number of elevators?  Balcony size?  Nearby shopping and restaurant choices?  How's the neighborhood?  Going up or down?  Etc., etc.  All these thigs and more go into the pricing of a condo.  That's not to say that there aren't bargains out there.  But a bargain isn't a bargain if it's not something you really want.  

       One can also argue endlessly if this time or that time is a good time to buy--or if one should even be buying at all.  There's  no one-size-fits-all  right answer to when or if one should buy-it all comes down to personal wants and needs.   With expats in Thailand, we seem to run the gamut of those with a suitcase packed by the door ready to bolt in a minute on one end and those who plan to be here until they go toes up on the other end--and everything in between the two.  

    How one views their stay in Thailand would be just one factor in whether one might rent or buy. Certainly, as you say, it's a renter's market now.  There is a unit like mine for rent on a lower floor for 20,000 baht a month.  Maybe you could get it cheaper than that.  My partner and I, however, are not renters and are in the 'here for the long haul' category.  We wanted a Bangkok getaway condo and we wanted it now, not a year or so in the future when prices might be cheaper.  At my age, the future is now.  

     

[Robin]

Last time this happened, the then PM, a certain, more economically literate, now in exile, came up with ideas to encourage more farangs to come to Thailand, to live and buy property there.

Current government, with less economic knowledge that the average Thai chicken, is doing all it can to discourage any visitors .

Reading the experience of retirees trying to get back to Thailand, I don't see anyone wanting to come to live in Thailand.

 

Property development can be a lucrative business, but it is also high risk and no sympathy for the developers now suffering.  It is called business;  the higher the profit, the higher the risk.