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BREAKING: French woman on Koh Samui tests positive for COVID-19


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21 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

I m wondering if this is going to trigger the same kind of Paranoia we saw when that Egyptian " Soldier " went walkabout in Rayong.

I inclined to believe  at this Lady contracted the Covid Virus in Quarantine from a flawed procedure or a contaminated worker

Paranoia, did you see how many people were protesting in the last week. I think covid-19 was the last thing they were thinking about. In western countries people are questioning the whole covid situation and asking whether this ecomonic meltdown is worth it. With low testing Thailand has probably got lots of cases walking around and mild positives if any symptoms at all.

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So either the 14 day quarantine is a load of BS or Thailand isn't as secure as they lead us to believe...  

That's the "Covid free Thailand" up the Suwanee !  She may have caught it from an untested Thai.

Increase quarantine ro 3 weeks

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2 hours ago, themongoose said:

Its not a great surprise.

 

My partner just returned from the Rajabhat Graduation ceremony at Sakhon Nakhon last week. They tested everyone before entry into the ceremony hall and 10 people tested positive there.

 

Let's see if these numbers appear in the stats tomorrow!

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3 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

had visited the French embassy before taking Bangkok Airways PG167 to Koh Samui.

Wondering if they will blame the Embassy officials, as it could not have come from within Thailand.....

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2 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

Is it? I've just head HSV1/HSV2 blood PCR tests, they cam back both negative which I find very hard to believe as I am absolutely certain I've head HSV1 since my early childhood, where there were always two or three kids with cold sores in the classroom.

I thought also that I was likely to test positive for HSV2, but not with any level of certainty.

From what I know, HSV is difficult to test for, and ideally been done using a swab from an open sore. 
 

Similarly, PCR tests for other infections get less reliable when using a wrong or less preferred specimen. 
 

Most currently available Covid-19 PCR tests seem to have a sensitivity and specificity rates of up to 99.9% if carried out correctly, which is extremely high. There’s one vendor that regularly tests all its hundreds of employees and never had a positive. If those tests had a high rate of false positives then this would not be the case. Some studies come to similar results.  
 

Im not a doctor though. If you need medical advice, discuss it with an experienced infectious disease specialist. I’m just sharing what I learned myself. 
 

 

 

Edited by welovesundaysatspace
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3 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

not correct. The test is specific to COVID-19. False positives are very rare (but false negatives fairly common). And when someone tests positiev a second test is immediately done to conifrm. Odds of 2 sequential false positives are miniscule.

 

Now PCR can indeed pick up dead cells from prior COVID-19 infection, but as she is symptomatic that is not likely to be the case here.

 

Do you know what the Specificity of the PCR test for Covid-19 is?

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33 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

But if it's that sensitive wouldn't there be a risk of false positives, particularly for people who have recovered but are still shedding inactive virus DNA.

This is an antigen-based test

 

 

28 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

What Ct value is recommended? The first diagram looks to be a max of 35x. And do you know what Ct values other countries use for their RT-PCR tests?

 

https://www.anteotech.com/covid-19/

This is a lateral flow test.

RT-PCR testing was performed on the samples to verify the results. I don't know what other countries use.

You can get more specifics about the test from their releases here https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/announcements.ado

 

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My post on this topic was deleted by the mods and perhaps rightly so, but for the record, I never had any intention to suggest any conspiracy about C-19 reporting in LOS. Quite the opposite. I speak to folks there very day - I think it is a non-event in LOS. My post was more about how safe the system here in Oz is going at the moment, but I do accept the mods decision, as my post could have been misconstrued. I was talking about the MIL being ill at age 70 in CM and having 5 vials of blood taken today. I have since managed to get Mrs P off the 'games on her mobile' and, she called her mum in C Mai. The MIL now says that she is just 'sick' from the cold season arriving early, but is otherwise very well. It turns out (and Sheryl especially will be interested in this) that the hospital (the big one at Mae Rim, I forget the name) took 5 vials of blood because the old girl  has survived for 27 years on Thai made retro-virals, as she has been HIV+ for that long ! She has NO symptoms of C-19 at all. They simply wanted to check "everything" which I can understand, at her age of 72. My own belief about C-19, given that I have a real Uni-degree with a major in Chemistry is that viruses, any viruses, can't survive in heat. Last time I looked, LOS wasn't cold. Ever. It just makes sense. I apologise again to the mods, who do a great job, under stress too.

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3 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:

 

Do you know what the Specificity of the PCR test for Covid-19 is?

 

A little over 95%. So 2 sequential positive tests would have only about 0.2% chance of being wrong.

 

Specificity, on the other hand, is pretty low at only around 70% for test by nasal swab.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

A little over 95%. So 2 sequential positive tests would have only about 0.2% chance of being wrong.

 

Specificity, on the other hand, is pretty low at only around 70% for test by nasal swab.

 

 

Wouldn't a 95% specificity mean that there's a 0.2% chance of two tests being false positives only if the error was random rather than systemic?

Edited by suzannegoh
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Just now, suzannegoh said:

Wouldn't a 95% specificity only mean that there's a 0.2% chance of two tests being false positives only if the error was random rather than systemic?

 

 

Yes, specificity refers to the chances of a random error.

 

What do you mean by a "systematic" error?

 

There is certainly no indication of any problem with testing equipment or procedures in Thailand, if there were there would be many false positives occurring and there have not been.

 

The woman has symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 and has had 2 sequential positive tests. No reason at all to think she does not in fact  have COVID.

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4 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

So either the 14 day quarantine is a load of BS or Thailand isn't as secure as they lead us to believe...

 

Or she contracted it while in quarantine, but after the second test. I don't think Thai nationals are required to do pre flight testing, so can carry it into quarantine where there is the possibility, however small of passing it on.

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2 minutes ago, phetphet said:

Or she contracted it while in quarantine, but after the second test. I don't think Thai nationals are required to do pre flight testing, so can carry it into quarantine where there is the possibility, however small of passing it on.

Other countries in the region like Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar and the Philippines are reporting lots of new cases per day, but Thailand is not. Malaysia is testing 4x as many people at 60,000 per 1 million and Indonesia is 15,500 per 1 million, Thailand is 14,000 per 1 million. No one has explained why Thailand has zero cases when other SE Asian countries are reporting 500+ cases per day. Maybe people have mild symptoms and just don't bother asking to be tested.

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