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BREAKING: French woman on Koh Samui tests positive for COVID-19


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1 minute ago, Sheryl said:

 

 

Yes, specificity refers to the chances of a random error.

 

What do you mean by a "systematic" error?

 

There is certainly no indication of any problem with testing equipment or procedures in Thailand, if there were there would be many false positives occurring and there have not been.

 

The woman has symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 and has had 2 sequential positive tests. No reason at all to think she does not in fact  have COVID.


I didn't know that Specificity was a measure of only random error.

Systemic error is when the same error occurs by the same amount every time you run the same test on the same patient.  An example would be if something was present in the patient's system that tricks the test into false positive and that something is still in the patient's system the next day, then that patient would still test positive the next day. 
 

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So either the 14 day quarantine is a load of BS or Thailand isn't as secure as they lead us to believe...  

That's the "Covid free Thailand" up the Suwanee !  She may have caught it from an untested Thai.

Increase quarantine ro 3 weeks

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9 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:


I didn't know that Specificity was a measure of only random error.

Systemic error is when the same error occurs by the same amount every time you run the same test on the same patient.  An example would be if something was present in the patient's system that tricks the test into false positive and that something is still in the patient's system the next day, then that patient would still test positive the next day. 
 

That's an interesting point about being in the patients system, Cristiano Ronaldo has now tested positive twice without any symptoms. Excuse the source, just did a quick search for a reference. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8868067/Cristiano-Ronaldo-tests-positive-coronavirus-miss-Barcelona-clash.html

 

"But Juventus filed a medical report to UEFA arguing that the player's test showed a very low viral load" this would indicate that in Italy the Ct value is too high and is picking up too many people who don't show any symptoms. There is debate whether you would pass on the same viral load or not, depends on who you read and believe.

 

This is another example in Italy, 3 British students who keep testing positive and are not allowed to leave isolation. There is an update to the story from the 22nd in The Telegraph (paywall) they are still there. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8805591/Italy-coronavirus-Britons-quarantine-two-months-fear-mental-health.html

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42 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

A little over 95%. So 2 sequential positive tests would have only about 0.2% chance of being wrong.

 

Specificity, on the other hand, is pretty low at only around 70% for test by nasal swab.

 

 

But let’s suppose that it’s only random error that we need to be concerned about and that it’s correct that if someone is tested twice there’s only a 0.2% chance of getting a false positive.  At first blush that sounds pretty good, but if the actual infection rate of those tested was less than 0.2% then more than half of the positives that are detected would be false.  To understand why, let's suppose that the infection rate was zero in the general public.  Then we'd still get 2 positives out of every 1000 tests just due to the test's specificity but all of them would be false.  If the real infection rate was 0.2%, then we would find 2 real positives per 1000 people tested plus 2 per 1000 arising from the test's specificity, so on average, 2 out of the 4 positives would be false.  Thus the lower the infection rate the higher the specificity of the test needs to be.

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Most likely cause is that she contracted the virus in the ASQ hotel.  The ASQ will contain people from many high risk countries, and they are only transfered to a hospital if they test positive and develop symptoms.

 

So there's a good chance of asymptomatic COVID cases in every ASQ.  Then we have staff going from room to room, 'interns' going to the gym and common areas after a (possibly false) negative test, plus the possibility of illicit meetings.

 

Most likely place to catch COVID in Thailand is probably an ASQ.

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7 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

So either the 14 day quarantine is a load of BS or Thailand isn't as secure as they lead us to believe...

 

A finely nuanced view sir.

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Most likely cause is that she contracted the virus in the ASQ hotel.  The ASQ will contain people from many high risk countries, and they are only transfered to a hospital if they test positive and develop symptoms.

 

So there's a good chance of asymptomatic COVID cases in every ASQ.  Then we have staff going from room to room, 'interns' going to the gym and common areas after a (possibly false) negative test, plus the possibility of illicit meetings.

 

Most likely place to catch COVID in Thailand is probably an ASQ.

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5 hours ago, hamleknoi said:

This is an antigen-based test

 

 

 

So what? It's still going to be detecting the virus long after you've ceased to be infectious so the problem of false positives remains. This will be a particular issue as large numbers of people become infected over the winter and recover but still test positive weeks or months later.

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10 hours ago, Farma said:

Some provinces, not all, have additional home quarantine once a person arrives in that province after 14 day ASQ.

 

 

And you really think they abide by it ? 🤔

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10 hours ago, robsamui said:

Of Course. 
What did Trump say about bringing the USA's numbers down? Stop testing.
What do you think Tland's been doing since the panic started back in March?

 

A little bit of truth in this

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Thailand has tested 14k per 1m of the population compared to 393k per 1m of the population in the US,

Having said that, if the virus is truly under control as they claim then the need for testing diminishes

 

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3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Go figure. Who is right, those that test or don't test.

 Who tests ultimately. Japan is detecting imports from covid free China on a regular basis. Cannot find the Thai quota unfortunately, but cases of Thais have been detected.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4035477

 

Also, Taiwan is criticising China, saying it's impossible to have 10.9 million negative tests in Qingdao. So they are lying through their teeth. Just like Thailand.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4032922

 

"China's statistics on its confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths have resulted in much doubt, as they have been suspiciously low for such a populous country, currently in 49th place behind Portugal and ahead of Ethiopia. The speed with which China went from initially announcing human-to-human transmissions on Jan. 20 to declaring "zero" local infections on March 19 also raises many questions about the authenticity of China's reporting."

 

I know another country that stopped counting at roughly the same time with China at 80K+. Thailand at 3K+. Must have realised it's "bad for business" to be infected.

 

 

Edited by lkv
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