French woman who tested positive for Covid: Detailed timeline announced

[rooster59]

French woman who tested positive for Covid: Detailed timeline announced

 

Image: Sanook

 

The timeline of the 57 year old French woman who has tested positive for coronavirus in Koh Samui has been announced by health officials.

 

She returned from France with her husband and son, attended Alternative State Quarantine in Samut Prakan, visited the French embassy, flew to Samui and went to Big C and 7/11 near her home.

 

After two negative tests in quarantine she showed positive after reaching Samui. Her relations are negative and a friend is undergoing testing. 

 

The Thais said that ten passengers and 2 crew on a flight were high risk close contact and 21 other, medical personnel, were deemed low risk.

 

No directives about contact at the retail stores have been announced. 

 

Here is the timeline:

 

The family left Limoges on Sept 30th and boarded THAI airways TG 933 to Bangkok.

 

They attended ASQ.

 

Tests on October 3rd and 11th were negative.

 

On the 15th she went to the French embassy then flew on Bangkok Airways PG 167 to Koh Samui where the family were met by a friend and driven home in a private car.

 

On the 17th she exhibited symptoms of cough, phlegm, fever and muscle aches. She had visited 7/11 and Big C near her home on this day.

 

On the 20th she went to Bangkok Samui hospital and was admitted.

 

On the 21st she left hospital but a test came back positive.

 

On the 22nd she was subsequently confirmed with another test. She was isolated at hospital. 

 

Her husband and child were negative, the friend who picked them up is having a test.

 

Source: Sanook

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2020-10-24

 

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[Sharp]

Come on !!!!!!

How contagious is this really it the nearest family text negative.

It's already being touted the tests are dubious at Best!!!

[Seismic]

19 minutes ago, Sharp said:

It's already being touted the tests are dubious at Best!!!

PCR tests have improved dramatically during the pandemic, and have also gotten easier to perform. The exact accuracy of PCR tests has been tough to pin down. According to Dr. Robert Schmerling reporting in Harvard Health Publishing, "the reported rate of false negatives is as low as 2%. The reported rate of false positives—that is, a test that says you have the virus when you actually do not—is 5% or lower."

[jybkk]

47 minutes ago, Sharp said:

Come on !!!!!!

How contagious is this really it the nearest family text negative.

It's already being touted the tests are dubious at Best!!!

You are basing your conclusions on a single case while there's data on tens of million cases.

 

The accuracy of tests and the length of incubation periods were questionable early on, it's not the case anymore. We now which one are reliable, which ones are just indicative. We have a very good idea of what to expect. PCR tests are reliable enough for the control of the pandemic.

 

As for contagiosity, it's very clear by now that it is extremely variable depending on the patient. Deducting like you're doing that this disease isn't very contagious because of what happened in a single family while most of the world has been to at least on phase of exponential spread is just moronic.

 

Unusually long incubation period (up to 20+ days), false negatives and false positives will happen. But they are rare enough that if contact tracing is done properly, those cases who go through the quarantine + testing first line of defense won't have much chance to spread much further.

Edited October 24, 2020 by jybkk

[Sharp]

23 minutes ago, Seismic said:

PCR tests have improved dramatically during the pandemic, and have also gotten easier to perform. The exact accuracy of PCR tests has been tough to pin down. According to Dr. Robert Schmerling reporting in Harvard Health Publishing, "the reported rate of false negatives is as low as 2%. The reported rate of false positives—that is, a test that says you have the virus when you actually do not—is 5% or lower."

I read it's the amount of amplifaction required gives many false positives due to the fact if you amplify anything enough times you will find a trace of it even dead viruses.

[finnsk]

The woman was Covid free after state qurantine, where did she get the infection ? yes in Thailand.

 

Thai people is not tested regulary, the covid virus can be in the society without anybody want to know it.

 

 

[Sharp]

15 minutes ago, jybkk said:

You are basing your conclusions on a single case while there's data on tens of million cases.

 

The accuracy of tests and the length of incubation periods were questionable early on, it's not the case anymore. We now which one are reliable, which ones are just indicative. We have a very good idea of what to expect. PCR tests are reliable enough for the control of the pandemic.

 

As for contagiosity, it's very clear by now that it is extremely variable depending on the patient. Deducting like you're doing that this disease isn't very contagious because of what happened in a single family while most of the world has been to at least on phase of exponential spread is just moronic.

 

Unusually long incubation period (up to 20+ days), false negatives and false positives will happen. But they are rare enough that if contact tracing is done properly, those cases who go through the quarantine + testing first line of defense won't have much chance to spread much further.

I'm not disputing anyone's ideas or knowledge only quoting from my various sources and forming my own opinion as below 

[Sharp]

Just now, Sharp said:

I'm not disputing anyone's ideas or knowledge only quoting from my various sources and forming my own opinion as below 

Although I agree the 70+ figure doesn't match up should be 5.4%

[welovesundaysatspace]

21 minutes ago, Sharp said:

I read it's the amount of amplifaction required gives many false positives due to the fact if you amplify anything enough times you will find a trace of it even dead viruses.

Please elaborate how that works in detail. Because I believe it’s a load of nonsense: PCR generally is highly reliable and one of the best testing technology that exists in modern diagnostic, and many Covid-19 PCR seem to have sensitivity and specificity rates of up to 99.9%. 

[welovesundaysatspace]

1 hour ago, Sharp said:

 

It's already being touted the tests are dubious at Best!!!

If I believed everything that’s “being touted”, we would be living on a flat earth where dark creatures controlled by chemtrails eat little children.  

[ICELANDMAN]

Sooner or later dear Thailand you should open the borders and then it will arrive full of covids but if you don't open them I should draw the financial consequences with the biggest crisis you have never seen and then I should really panic

[ExpatOilWorker]

26 minutes ago, Sharp said:

I'm not disputing anyone's ideas or knowledge only quoting from my various sources and forming my own opinion as below 

All the INFECTION FATALITY RATE numbers are a factor 100 too low. Sloppy reporting by CDC.

[Tropicalevo]

35 minutes ago, finnsk said:

The woman was Covid free after state qurantine, where did she get the infection ? yes in Thailand.

Probably whilst in quarantine.

Edited October 24, 2020 by Tropicalevo

[richard_smith237]

1 minute ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Please elaborate how that works in detail. Because I believe it’s a load of nonsense: PCR generally is highly reliable and one of the best testing technology that exists in modern diagnostic, and many Covid-19 PCR seem to have sensitivity and specificity rates of up to 99.9%. 

 

An article submitted in the Lancet on September 29 suggests that Covid-19 RT PCR tests (in the UK)  are suspected to have a false positive rate of between 0.8 and 4.0% 

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

 

 

 

Obviously those who present symptoms and also test positive fall well below the 0.8 to 4.0% false positive estimate outlined in the medical paper, however, when testing en masse i.e. 200,000 people daily the incidence of false positives could be significant. Significant enough to warrant policy change and further lockdowns when it's unnecessary.

 

Given the information on false positives - any positive test should really be carried out twice to confirm the result. 

 

 

Regarding the French lady, there are a number of possibilities: 

- She contracted Covid-19 from elsewhere, as nothing is water tight, even quarantine

- She has a regular cold and exhibits symptoms, the Covid-19 test was a false positive

- She has carried Covid-19 for a few weeks (asymptomatic), she is one of the extremely rare cases where Covid-19 developed outside of the usual window

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[lust]

38 minutes ago, Sharp said:

I'm not disputing anyone's ideas or knowledge only quoting from my various sources and forming my own opinion as below 

Many people that are surviving are reporting that months after recovery they’re still experiencing many health problems. Respiratory and brain problems mostly. 

[NanLaew]

1 hour ago, Sharp said:

Come on !!!!!!

How contagious is this really it the nearest family text negative.

It's already being touted the tests are dubious at Best!!!

That's probably why she was re-tested after the first +ve test and her close family and friend will most probably have more than one test.

[AbeNormal]

52 minutes ago, finnsk said:

The woman was Covid free after state qurantine, where did she get the infection ? yes in Thailand.

 

Thai people is not tested regulary, the covid virus can be in the society without anybody want to know it.

 

 

she got sick (showing symptoms) on the 2nd day after leaving quarantine, it is highly likely she was infected in quarantine, we see news every day of high rates of infections/detections in quarantine, personally it is the last place I would want to be, months ago hotels and cruise ships were a hot bed for spread of the China Virus (CV 19), there is very obviously something going wrong

[AbeNormal]

49 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Please elaborate how that works in detail. Because I believe it’s a load of nonsense: PCR generally is highly reliable and one of the best testing technology that exists in modern diagnostic, and many Covid-19 PCR seem to have sensitivity and specificity rates of up to 99.9%. 

early on China supplied rapid test kits to various countries including the UK, they were soon deemed useless and inaccurate and were returned to China

 

What is Thailand using ?

 

I don't know the answer

[Jack Mountain]

1 hour ago, Sharp said:

I'm not disputing anyone's ideas or knowledge only quoting from my various sources and forming my own opinion as below 

This isn't correct, survival+fatality rate must be 100%.

[tgw]

Quote

On the 15th she went to the French embassy

 

on se fait la bise?  mystery solved.

[baansgr]

2 hours ago, Sharp said:

Come on !!!!!!

How contagious is this really it the nearest family text negative.

It's already being touted the tests are dubious at Best!!!

But she didn't show symptoms until day 17.....is 14 day quarantine enough???

[Jack Mountain]

Just now, tgw said:

 

on se fait la bise?  mystery solved.

2 Days later sick, too soon!

[Whale]

My guess would be the final days of quarantine. How many ASQ hotels in Samut Prakan, I find two on google. I guess its in double lockdown at the moment which ever one it is.

[NanLaew]

20 minutes ago, baansgr said:

But she didn't show symptoms until day 17.....is 14 day quarantine enough???

 

20 minutes ago, Jack Mountain said:

2 Days later sick, too soon!

AFAIK, there's no clinical or scientific evidence that the coronavirus can tell the time.

[richard_smith237]

17 minutes ago, Whale said:

My guess would be the final days of quarantine. How many ASQ hotels in Samut Prakan, I find two on google. I guess its in double lockdown at the moment which ever one it is.

 

 

Day 1:  Sept 30th Flew from France Bangkok.

             ASQ: Tests on October 3rd and 11th were negative.

Day 16: Flew to Samui

Day 18: Presented symptoms

Day 21: Went to hospital - test came back positive the next day

Day 23: Second Covid-19 test confirmed positive

 

Her family have tested negative. 

 

 

It's possible she somehow caught Covid-19 while in ASQ. 

It's also possible she caught Covid-19 flying to Samui.

It's interesting that her family have tested negative - which implies there is a varying susceptibility to Covid-19, or the french lady contracted Covid-19 from someone or something presenting significant viral load for the virus to take hold, however, the viral load within her body (the french lady) was not significant enough to pass the virus on to her family at that stage (i.e. very early stages). 

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2020 by richard_smith237

[forrwhat]

Mortality rates are not the only danger this pandemic has. Their are many long term side effects that have been reported by survivors of the virus.

 

Many of the hardest hit countries have seen the virus overwhelming the hospital system. That leads to a disruption in basic health services for all.  Countries without nationalized health care and free and readily available testing have no idea the numbers of actual infected due to the cost of not only testing but also seeking treatment.

 

[NanLaew]

38 minutes ago, AbeNormal said:

early on China supplied rapid test kits to various countries including the UK, they were soon deemed useless and inaccurate and were returned to China

 

What is Thailand using ?

 

I don't know the answer

For current infection, the standard PCR swab test, ie. long cotton bud on back of throat and up each nostril. Has a reported ~2% false -ve rate and a reported ~5% false +ve rate.

 

I think the shonky test kits were the antibody ones that test blood for past infection.

[EricTh]

This is strange....

 

How did a tourist come in on 30 Sept when it is supposed to be closed for all tourists?

 

Why was she tested negative when she was in France and again in 14 days quarantine in Thailand?

 

Aren't everybody supposed to get a Covid free cert in country of origin first?

 

Something fishy here.

Edited October 24, 2020 by EricTh

[Swimfan]

3 hours ago, Sharp said:

Come on !!!!!!

How contagious is this really it the nearest family text negative.

It's already being touted the tests are dubious at Best!!!

They may still be incubation period. Just like she tested negative twice in quarantine 

[Aforek]

44 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

on se fait la bise?  mystery solved.

???? no bise ( kiss )  in French embassy ; I was there 3 weeks ago, everything is very strick about covid

I don't  think she go it here, and I hope she didn't leave the virus there ( for me, no ) 

from the calendar, i think she got the virus in quarantine