rooster59 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 French tourist among four new Covid-19 cases By THE NATION There were four new Covid-19 cases over a 24-hour period, including three cases in state quarantine and a domestic infection, the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration said on Saturday. Of the three returnees, one patient, aged 38, had arrived from Austria and two, aged 26 and 38, had returned from Hong Kong. All the Thai nationals were female. The domestic case was a 57-year-old French tourist, who visited Koh Samui in Surat Thani province with her husband and son. Koh Samui Hospital showed a positive result on October 21, and the result was again confirmed by the Regional Medical Sciences Centre 11 in Surat Thani on October 22. However, her husband and son have tested negative. Further information on the French tourist can be checked here. As of Saturday, the number of confirmed cases in Thailand increased to 3,731 (783 in state quarantine), 143 are in hospital, 3,529 have recovered and been discharged and 59 have died. According to Worldometer, as of 9am on Friday, the number of confirmed global cases had risen to 42.46 million, 31.42 million have recovered, 76,477 are in serious condition and 1.14 million have died. Thailand ranks 146th for most cases in the world. The US has the most number, with 8.74 million, followed by India (7.81 million), Brazil (5.35 million), Russia (1.48 million) and Spain (1.11 million). Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30396703 -- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-10-24 - Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you - Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virt Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Huh, did the French woman develop a fever, but still went out shopping on Samui. That's just crazy if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard_smith237 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Why the need for a 3rd thread on this Subject ???????????? https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1188752-breaking-french-woman-on-koh-samui-tests-positive-for-covid-19/ https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1188844-french-woman-who-tested-positive-for-covid-detailed-timeline-announced/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Seismic Posted October 24, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 24, 2020 37 minutes ago, Virt said: Huh, did the French woman develop a fever, but still went out shopping on Samui. That's just crazy if that's the case. When you have been through the 14 day quarantine and tested negative for Covid-19, you probably do not expect the come down with it at a later date. What is more interesting is who she caught it from, or is 14 days quarantine actually enough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virt Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Seismic said: When you have been through the 14 day quarantine and tested negative for Covid-19, you probably do not expect the come down with it at a later date. What is more interesting is who she caught it from, or is 14 days quarantine actually enough. In these times we should know to stay at home if we get a fever and then have it checked first, before venturing out into society again. The 14 days quarantines are not enough if you want to be 100% sure, but it's good enough to catch most people, but some will slip through because of a longer incubation period. Some has reported to have incubation period more than 25 days. Plus there is the possibility that she got it during/shortly after quarantine. That seems more likely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w94005m Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, Seismic said: When you have been through the 14 day quarantine and tested negative for Covid-19, you probably do not expect the come down with it at a later date. What is more interesting is who she caught it from, or is 14 days quarantine actually enough. More likely she caught it whilst quarantining. Notable symptoms are on average about 5 days after exposure. Staggeringly unlikely that 14 days is insufficient for a positive PCR test. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GroveHillWanderer Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, w94005m said: More likely she caught it whilst quarantining. Notable symptoms are on average about 5 days after exposure. Staggeringly unlikely that 14 days is insufficient for a positive PCR test. According to the research, it takes longer than 14 days for the virus to incubate in around 1 in 100 cases. There was one case in China which documented a 27-day incubation period. Coronavirus incubation period I'm not sure that a 1% chance, although admittedly small, qualifies as staggeringly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w94005m Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 hour ago, GroveHillWanderer said: According to the research, it takes longer than 14 days for the virus to incubate in around 1 in 100 cases. There was one case in China which documented a 27-day incubation period. Coronavirus incubation period I'm not sure that a 1% chance, although admittedly small, qualifies as staggeringly unlikely. Thank you for posting, but you should note that came from the middle of March! Testing and knowledge has expanded substantially since then and I stand 100% behind my comment that > 14 days is staggeringly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kopitiam Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 I thought the first tourists to arrive in Thailand after 7 months were the group of Chinese who arrived in BKK a couple of days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w94005m Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 hour ago, w94005m said: Thank you for posting, but you should note that came from the middle of March! Testing and knowledge has expanded substantially since then and I stand 100% behind my comment that > 14 days is staggeringly unlikely. And here is a more recent and extensive survey with the absolute max at 12.8 days https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7548076/#:~:text=( Table 1 ).-,Pooled average incubation period of SARS-CoV-2,South Korea and China%2C respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cake Monster Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 It really does not matter how the Lady contracted the Virus. i just hope that she makes a full and quick recovery with non of the long lasting effects of the Virus, and the Media and others do not make her out to be a Freak of some kind through no fault of her own making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewMciver Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 It's not a 14 day quarantine. It's a 15 day quarantine, and another half day whilst they process your 'release'. Essentially it's 16 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackdd Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Kopitiam said: I thought the first tourists to arrive in Thailand after 7 months were the group of Chinese who arrived in BKK a couple of days ago. Retirees are often called "long term tourist", I guess this is where the "tourist" in this article originates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChomDo Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 What I want to know how did she get to Thailand in the first place, a "French tourist", what?? How was a French national able to come to Thailand as a "tourist" in the beginning of October?? The first group of tourist just arrived from China. French are definitely not allowed in, so how is this possible in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alyx Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 3 hours ago, jackdd said: Retirees are often called "long term tourist", I guess this is where the "tourist" in this article originates No tourist nor retirees are allowed in Thailand. The first batch of Long tourist visa were a group of Chinese. This lady can only be the wife of one "member"of the allowed categories 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daveAustin Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 11 hours ago, Seismic said: When you have been through the 14 day quarantine and tested negative for Covid-19, you probably do not expect the come down with it at a later date. What is more interesting is who she caught it from, or is 14 days quarantine actually enough. Because she probably picked it up while out in the field. It is global and is akin to catching a cold. Thailand 146th (probably behind somewhere like Bhutan) bla bla. Whatever. If you test a million people and 1% have it, what figures would you get? If you test a thousand people and 1% have it, what figures would you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotchilli Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 18 hours ago, richard_smith237 said: Why the need for a 3rd thread on this Subject ???????????? https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1188752-breaking-french-woman-on-koh-samui-tests-positive-for-covid-19/ https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1188844-french-woman-who-tested-positive-for-covid-detailed-timeline-announced/ Some people need to read it 3 times to start believing Covid is an issue if borders are opened up. More the better I say.... I hope Pipat & Anutin read this site too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rioD Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Maybe she caught it from one of the millions of untested Thais. The actually have no clue who and or how many Thais may have it due to limited testing and the disease rarely resulting in overt illness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orchidfan Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 I agree with the above comments on "why a third thread " on this story....and all the ensuing questions. Isn't it firmly established that she was NOT a Tourist, but a Thai national, also holding a French passport (Thai lady married to a Frenchman ). Why do TV and other media keep referring to her as a "French tourist "??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GroveHillWanderer Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 19 hours ago, w94005m said: And here is a more recent and extensive survey with the absolute max at 12.8 days https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7548076/#:~:text=( Table 1 ).-,Pooled average incubation period of SARS-CoV-2,South Korea and China%2C respectively. There's nothing on that link that says 12.8 days is the absolute maximum. One paper on there says that data from China shows a mean (average) incubation period from 1.8 to 12.8 days. Also, although the date on that paper itself may be more recent, it's actually a summary of older data, most of which is also from January to March. One of the papers referenced on that link provides exactly the statistic I was talking about, as follows: Quote These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10,000 cases ... will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32150748/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w94005m Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, GroveHillWanderer said: There's nothing on that link that says 12.8 days is the absolute maximum. One paper on there says that data from China shows a mean (average) incubation period from 1.8 to 12.8 days. Also, although the date on that paper itself may be more recent, it's actually a summary of older data, most of which is also from January to March. One of the papers referenced on that link provides exactly the statistic I was talking about, as follows: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32150748/ 14 days is the gold standard today for a very good reason. Move on. Early facts especially from China are questionable. "The incubation period is believed to be a function of the initial infective dose, speed of replication of the pathogen within the host, and the host defense mechanisms.16 Estimation of the incubation period of a novel pathogen is vital for prevention and control; for example, to determine the appropriate duration of quarantine or observation of an exposed individuals.16 Different studies have revealed that the incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 varies across different countries; the incubation period ranges from 1.8 to 12.8 days (mean) in China, 4 days (median) in Singapore, 3.6 days (median) in South Korea, and 4.9 days (median) globally.17, 18, 19, 20, 21" In fact, this report states that 14 days is probably excessive, but it's there to ensure that there is virtually no chance of not picking up someone with the virus. Your quote of 99% at 14 days is not backed up. Here is the conclusion and as you note, this considered all available studies, including this early questionable one you quoted: This meta-analysis revealed that the pooled mean incubation period of COVID-19 was 5.7 days (95% CI, 5.1–6.4). Hence, the current 14-day quarantine policy and contact-based surveillance protocol should be revised and shortened to 7 days, accompanied with longer passive monitoring to track potential asymptomatic positively skewed and false negative cases. In addition, the close contacts of confirmed case patients should be traced, quarantined, and tested starting 5 days before the onset of symptoms. Edited October 25, 2020 by w94005m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lujanit Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 And ai Aunitin wants a zero quarantine period. This man is stupid and crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfHuy Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 On 10/24/2020 at 1:10 PM, richard_smith237 said: Why the need for a 3rd thread on this Subject ???????????? https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1188752-breaking-french-woman-on-koh-samui-tests-positive-for-covid-19/ https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1188844-french-woman-who-tested-positive-for-covid-detailed-timeline-announced/ To make sure that everybody gets it that she is "French" and not Thai. French, French, farang, French. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now